scholarly journals A Regional Application of Bayesian Modeling for Coastal Erosion and Sand Nourishment Management

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 61 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alessio Giardino ◽  
Eleni Diamantidou ◽  
Stuart Pearson ◽  
Giorgio Santinelli ◽  
Kees Den Heijer
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Modeling ◽  
Coastal Erosion ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Profile Data ◽  
Predictive Tool ◽  
The Past ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Sand Nourishment ◽  
Foot Position

This paper presents an application of the Bayesian belief network for coastal erosion management at the regional scale. A “Bayesian ERosion Management Network” (BERM-N) is developed and trained based on yearly cross-shore profile data available along the Holland coast. Profiles collected for over 50 years and at 604 locations were combined with information on different sand nourishment types (i.e., beach, dune, and shoreface) and volumes implemented during the analyzed time period. The network was used to assess the effectiveness of nourishments in mitigating coastal erosion. The effectiveness of nourishments was verified using two coastal state indicators, namely the momentary coastline position and the dune foot position. The network shows how the current nourishment policy is effective in mitigating the past erosive trends. While the effect of beach nourishment was immediately visible after implementation, the effect of shoreface nourishment reached its maximum only 5–10 years after implementation of the nourishments. The network can also be used as a predictive tool to estimate the required nourishment volume in order to achieve a predefined coastal erosion management objective. The network is interactive and flexible and can be trained with any data type derived from measurements as well as numerical models.

World Economy: Prospects and Barriers for Recovery

2012 ◽  
pp. 61-83 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Ershov
Keyword(s):  
World Economy ◽  
Western World ◽  
Short Time Period ◽  
Market Segments ◽  
Junk Bonds ◽  
The Past ◽  
Time Period ◽  
The Us ◽  
Global Liquidity ◽  
Short Time

According to the latest forecasts, it will take 10 years for the world economy to get back to “decent shape”. Some more critical estimates suggest that the whole western world will have a “colossal mess” within the next 5–10 years. Regulators of some major countries significantly and over a short time‑period changed their forecasts for the worse which means that uncertainty in the outlook for the future persists. Indeed, the intensive anti‑crisis measures have reduced the severity of the past problems, however the problems themselves have not disappeared. Moreover, some of them have become more intense — the eurocrisis, excessive debts, global liquidity glut against the backdrop of its deficit in some of market segments. As was the case prior to the crisis, derivatives and high‑risk operations with “junk” bonds grow; budget problems — “fiscal cliff” in the US — and other problems worsen. All of the above forces the regulators to take unprecedented (in their scope and nature) steps. Will they be able to tackle the problems which emerge?

scholarly journals One Year of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Galicia: A Global View of Age-Group Statistics during Three Waves

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (10) ◽  
pp. 5104
Author(s):  
Iván Area ◽  
Henrique Lorenzo ◽  
Pedro J. Marcos ◽  
Juan J. Nieto
Keyword(s):  
Intensive Care Unit ◽  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Nw Spain ◽  
The Past ◽  
Global View ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Key Variables ◽  
One Year

In this work we look at the past in order to analyze four key variables after one year of the COVID-19 pandemic in Galicia (NW Spain): new infected, hospital admissions, intensive care unit admissions and deceased. The analysis is presented by age group, comparing at each stage the percentage of the corresponding group with its representation in the society. The time period analyzed covers 1 March 2020 to 1 April 2021, and includes the influence of the B.1.1.7 lineage of COVID-19 which in April 2021 was behind 90% of new cases in Galicia. It is numerically shown how the pandemic affects the age groups 80+, 70+ and 60+, and therefore we give information about how the vaccination process could be scheduled and hints at why the pandemic had different effects in different territories.

scholarly journals Metaphors of migration over time

2021 ◽  
pp. 095792652199215
Author(s):  
Charlotte Taylor
Keyword(s):  
Emigration And Immigration ◽  
Emigrants And Immigrants ◽  
Economic Resource ◽  
Historical Discourse ◽  
Continuity And Change ◽  
The Past ◽  
Perception Of Control ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Metaphor Use ◽  
The Uk

This paper aims to cast light on contemporary migration rhetoric by integrating historical discourse analysis. I focus on continuity and change in conventionalised metaphorical framings of emigration and immigration in the UK-based Times newspaper from 1800 to 2018. The findings show that some metaphors persist throughout the 200-year time period (liquid, object), some are more recent in conventionalised form (animals, invader, weight) while others dropped out of conventionalised use before returning (commodity, guest). Furthermore, we see that the spread of metaphor use goes beyond correlation with migrant naming choices with both emigrants and immigrants occupying similar metaphorical frames historically. However, the analysis also shows that continuity in metaphor use cannot be assumed to correspond to stasis in framing and evaluation as the liquid metaphor is shown to have been more favourable in the past. A dominant frame throughout the period is migrants as an economic resource and the evaluation is determined by the speaker’s perception of control of this resource.

scholarly journals Validation of SCIAMACHY limb NO<sub>2</sub> profiles using solar occultation measurements

2011 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 4753-4800
Author(s):  
R. Bauer ◽  
A. Rozanov ◽  
C. A. McLinden ◽  
L. L. Gordley ◽  
W. Lotz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
The Past ◽  
Middle Latitudes ◽  
Solar Occultation ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Vertical Distributions ◽  
Global Coverage ◽  
Scanning Imaging ◽  
Diurnal Effect ◽  
Better Than ◽  
Balloon Measurements

Abstract. The increasing amounts of reactive nitrogen in the stratosphere necessitates accurate global measurements of stratospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO2). Over the past decade, the SCIAMACHY (SCanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CHartographY) instrument on ENVISAT (European Environmental Satellite) has been providing global coverage of stratospheric NO2 every 6 days, which is otherwise difficult to achieve with other systems (e.g. balloon measurements, solar occultation). In this study, the vertical distributions of NO2 retrieved from limb measurements of the scattered solar light from the SCIAMACHY instrument are validated using NO2 products from three different satellite instruments (SAGE II, HALOE and ACE-FTS). The retrieval approach, as well as the sensitivity of the SCIAMACHY NO2 limb data product are discussed, and the photochemical corrections needed to make this validation feasible, as well as the chosen collocation criteria are described. For each instrument, a time period of two years is analyzed with several hundreds of collocation pairs for each year and instrument. The agreement between SCIAMACHY and each instrument is found to be better than 10 % between 22–24 km and 40 km. Additionally, NO2 amounts in three different latitude regions are validated individually, with considerably better agreements in high and middle latitudes compared to tropics. Differences with SAGE II and ACE-FTS below 20 km are consistent with those expected from the diurnal effect.

Alpine sparsely vegetated areas in the eastern Qilian Mountains shrank with climate warming in the past 30 years

2018 ◽  
Vol 42 (4) ◽  
pp. 415-430 ◽  
Author(s):  
Biao Zeng ◽  
Fuguang Zhang ◽  
Taibao Yang ◽  
Jiaguo Qi ◽  
Mihretab G Ghebrezgabher
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Warming ◽  
Vegetation Index ◽  
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Qilian Mountains ◽  
Visual Interpretation ◽  
Hydrothermal Conditions ◽  
The Past ◽  
Distribution Ranges

Alpine sparsely vegetated areas (ASVAs) in mountains are sensitive to climate change and rarely studied. In this study, we focused on the response of ASVA distribution to climate change in the eastern Qilian Mountains (EQLM) from the 1990s to the 2010s. The ASVA distribution ranges in the EQLM during the past three decades were obtained from the Thematic Mapper remote sensing digital images by using the threshold of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and artificial visual interpretation. Results indicated that the ASVA shrank gradually in the EQLM and lost its area by approximately 11.4% from the 1990s to the 2010s. The shrunken ASVA with markedly more area than the expanded one was mainly located at altitudes from 3700 m to 4300 m, which were comparatively lower than the average altitude of the ASVA distribution ranges. This condition led to the low ASVA boundaries in the EQLM moving upwards at a significant velocity of 22 m/decade at the regional scale. This vertical zonal process was modulated by topography-induced differences in local hydrothermal conditions. Thus, the ASVA shrank mainly in its lower parts with mild and sunny slopes. Annual maximum NDVI in the transition zone increased significantly and showed a stronger positive correlation with significantly increasing temperature than insignificant precipitation variations during 1990–2015. The ASVA shrinkage and up-shifting of its boundary were attributed to climate warming, which facilitated the upper part of alpine meadow in the EQLM by releasing the low temperature limitation on vegetation growth.

Cornerstone Documents, Milestones, and Policies: Shaping the Direction of Public Health Nursing 1950-2015

2017 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Pamela Kulbok ◽  
Joan Kub ◽  
Doris Glick
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health Planning ◽  
Social Activism ◽  
Emerging Infectious Diseases ◽  
Public Health Nursing ◽  
Community Health Planning ◽  
The Past ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Health Nursing ◽  
Post War

Ruth Hubbard, a public health nursing (PHN) leader in 1950, offered a timeless comment, “To each age comes its own peculiar problems and challenges, but to it also comes the necessary vision and strength” (p. 608). Similar to the 1950s, from 1950 to 2015 unique healthcare and workforce issues continued to arise calling for public health nurses to respond with vision and strength. In Part Two of a three-part series on PHN history, we examine seminal documents, events, and policies that influenced practice. We begin by considering the time period 1950 to 1975, and then discuss healthcare transitions; social activism and community health planning; and concerns from the years 1975 to 2000 and 2000 to 2015. These milestones reflected challenges of emerging chronic diseases, re-emerging infectious diseases, immigration and terrorism, as well as post-war prosperity and improvements in health care. As in the early 20th century, response to challenges included periods of expansion and recession. We conclude by considering the past as prologue, discussing prospects for present and future PHN.

Past participles of strong verbs in Jutland Danish: A real-time study of regionalization and standardization

2012 ◽  
Vol 35 (2) ◽  
pp. 169-195 ◽  
Author(s):  
Torben Juel Jensen ◽  
Marie Maegaard
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Geographical Location ◽  
Past Participle ◽  
Time Study ◽  
The Past ◽  
Time Period ◽  
The Status ◽  
Standardization Process ◽  
Large Corpus ◽  
Strong Verbs

The article presents a real-time study of standardization and regionalization processes with respect to the use of past participles of strong verbs in the western part of Denmark. Analyses of a large corpus of recordings of informants from two localities show that the use of the dialectalenform of the past participle suffix has been in decline during the last 30 years. Theenforms are replaced by three other forms, one of which is (partly) dialectal, one regional and one standard Danish. The study indicates that a regionalization process has taken place prior to the time period studied, but that it has now been overtaken by a Copenhagen-based standardization process. The study also shows interesting differences between the two localities, arguably due to the geographical location and size, and to the status of the different participle forms in the traditional local dialects.

scholarly journals Present and LGM permafrost from climate simulations: contribution of statistical downscaling

2010 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 2233-2275 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Levavasseur ◽  
M. Vrac ◽  
D. M. Roche ◽  
D. Paillard ◽  
A. Martin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Downscaling ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Multinomial Logistic Regression ◽  
Generalized Additive Models ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Additive Models ◽  
Simple Relationship ◽  
Time Period

Abstract. We quantify the agreement between permafrost distributions from PMIP2 (Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project) climate models and permafrost data. We evaluate the ability of several climate models to represent permafrost and assess the inter-variability between them. Studying an heterogeneous variable such as permafrost implies to conduct analysis at a smaller spatial scale compared with climate models resolution. Our approach consists in applying statistical downscaling methods (SDMs) on large- or regional-scale atmospheric variables provided by climate models, leading to local permafrost modelling. Among the SDMs, we first choose a transfer function approach based on Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) to produce high-resolution climatology of surface air temperature (SAT). Then, we define permafrost distribution over Eurasia by SAT conditions. In a first validation step on present climate (CTRL period), GAM shows some limitations with non-systemic improvements in comparison with the large-scale fields. So, we develop an alternative method of statistical downscaling based on a stochastic generator approach through a Multinomial Logistic Regression (MLR), which directly models the probabilities of local permafrost indices. The obtained permafrost distributions appear in a better agreement with data. In both cases, the provided local information reduces the inter-variability between climate models. Nevertheless, this also proves that a simple relationship between permafrost and the SAT only is not always sufficient to represent local permafrost. Finally, we apply each method on a very different climate, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) time period, in order to quantify the ability of climate models to represent LGM permafrost. Our SDMs do not significantly improve permafrost distribution and do not reduce the inter-variability between climate models, at this period. We show that LGM permafrost distribution from climate models strongly depends on large-scale SAT. The differences with LGM data, larger than in the CTRL period, reduce the contribution of downscaling and depend on several factors deserving further studies.

scholarly journals Social tourism in Greece: a brief history of development from the interwar years to the COVID-19 era.

2021 ◽  
pp. 5-17
Author(s):  
Konstantinos I. Kakoudakis ◽  
Katerina Papadoulaki
Keyword(s):  
Developmental Process ◽  
Tourism Development ◽  
Past Century ◽  
Refugee Crisis ◽  
Modern Greek ◽  
The Past ◽  
History Of Development ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Key Players ◽  
History Of

Abstract This chapter illustrates the process of social tourism development in Greece, from the interwar years until the present day. The chapter first sets the discussion within the context of the country's turbulent political, social and economic background, throughout most of the past century, which has exercised significant influence on the development of Greek tourism in general, and social tourism specifically. It then identifies and presents two main phases of social tourism development, highlighting important initiatives and key players that contributed to the incremental evolution of social tourism programmes in Greece, and also events that impeded their implementation and smooth running. Specific emphasis is given to the past four decades, since this time period has largely shaped the contemporary form of Greek social tourism programmes. Therefore, the chapter explicates the close linkages between the establishment of the modern Greek welfare state in the early 1980s, and the development of social tourism as we know it today. The chapter concludes with a brief discussion on the developmental process of contemporary Greek social tourism over time, and the important socioeconomic implications of its current practice in the aftermath of the Greek financial crisis, and in the midst of the refugee crisis in Europe, and the Covid-19 pandemic.

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