scholarly journals Uncertainty Assessment of Climate Change Adaptation Options Using an Economic Pluvial Flood Risk Framework

Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 1877 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qianqian Zhou ◽  
Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Uncertainty Assessment ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Relative Contribution ◽  
Risk Framework ◽  
Robust Measures ◽  
The Cost

Identifying what, when, and how much adaptation is needed to account for increased pluvial flood risk is inherently uncertain. This presents a challenge to decision makers when trying to identify robust measures. This paper presents an integrated uncertainty analysis to quantify not only the overall uncertainty of individual adaptation scenarios, but also the net uncertainty between adaptation alternatives for a direct comparison of their efficiency. Further, a sensitivity analysis is used to assess the relative contribution of inherent uncertainties in the assessment. A Danish case study shows that the uncertainties in relation to assessing the present hazards and vulnerabilities (e.g., input runoff volume, threshold for damage, and costing of floods) are important to the overall uncertainty, thus contributing substantially to the overall uncertainty in relation to decisions on action or in-action. Once a decision of action has been taken, the uncertainty of the hazards under the current climate, and also the magnitude of future climate change, are less important than other uncertainties such as discount rate and the cost of implementing the adaptation measures. The proposed methodology is an important tool for achieving an explicit uncertainty description of climate adaptation strategies and provides a guide for further efforts (e.g., field data collection) to improve decision-making in relation to climate change.

scholarly journals The evolution of climate change guidance for fluvial flood risk management in England

2017 ◽  
Vol 41 (2) ◽  
pp. 222-237 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas S Reynard ◽  
Alison L Kay ◽  
Molly Anderson ◽  
Bill Donovan ◽  
Caroline Duckworth
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Flood Management ◽  
Flood Risk Management ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Floods are one of the biggest natural hazards to society, and there is increasing concern about the potential impacts of climate change on flood occurrence and magnitude. Furthermore, flood risk is likely to increase in the future not just through increased flood occurrence, but also through socio-economic changes, such as increasing population. The extent to which adaptation measures can offset this increased risk will depend on the level of future climate change, but there exists an urgent need for information on the potential impacts of climate change on floods, so that these can be accounted for by flood management authorities and local planners aiming to reduce flood risk. Agencies across the UK have been pro-active in providing such guidance for many years and in refining it as the science of climate change and hydrological impacts has developed. The history of this guidance for fluvial flood risk in England is presented and discussed here, including the recent adoption of a regional risk-based approach. Such an approach could be developed and applied to flood risk management in other countries, and to other sectors affected by climate change.

scholarly journals Participatory integrated assessment of flood protection measures for climate adaptation in Dhaka

2012 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 197-213 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anika Nasra Haque ◽  
Stelios Grafakos ◽  
Marijk Huijsman
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Integrated Assessment ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Flood Protection ◽  
High Rate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
The Government ◽  
The City

Dhaka is one of the largest megacities in the world and its population is growing rapidly. Due to its location on a deltaic plain, the city is extremely prone to detrimental flooding, and risks associated with this are expected to increase further in the coming years due to global climate change impacts as well as the high rate of urbanization the city is facing. The lowest-lying part of Dhaka, namely Dhaka East, is facing the most severe risk of flooding. Traditionally, excess water in this part of the city was efficiently stored in water ponds and gradually drained into rivers through connected canals. However, the alarming increase in Dhaka’s population is causing encroachment of these water retention areas because of land scarcity. The city’s natural drainage is not functioning well and the area is still not protected from flooding, which causes major threats to its inhabitants. This situation increases the urgency to adapt effectively to current flooding caused by climate variability and also to the impacts of future climate change. Although the government is planning several adaptive measures to protect the area from floods, a systematic framework to analyze and assess them is lacking. The objective of this paper is to develop an integrated framework for the assessment and prioritization of various (current and potential) adaptation measures aimed at protecting vulnerable areas from flooding. The study identifies, analyzes, assesses and prioritizes adaptive initiatives and measures to address flood risks in the eastern fringe area, and the adaptation assessment is conducted within the framework of multi-criteria analysis (MCA) methodology. MCA facilitates the participation of stakeholders and hence allows normative judgements, while incorporating technical expertise in the adaptation assessment. Based on the assessment, adaptive measures are prioritized to indicate which actions should be implemented first. Such a participatory integrated assessment of adaptation options is currently lacking in the decision-making process in the city of Dhaka and could greatly help reach informed and structured decisions in the development of adaptation strategies for flood protection.

scholarly journals Road Salt Damage to Historical Milestones Indicates Adaptation of Winter Roads to Future Climate Change May Damage Arctic Cultural Heritage

Climate ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (10) ◽  
pp. 149
Author(s):  
Hans Antonson ◽  
Philip Buckland ◽  
Göran Blomqvist
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Cultural Heritage ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Road Salt ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Anthropogenic Source ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Winter Snow ◽  
Winter Road

There is no doubt that anthropogenic global warming is accelerating damage to cultural heritage. Adaptation measures are required to reduce the loss of sites, monuments and remains. However, little research has been directed towards understanding potential impacts of climate adaptation measures in other governmental sectors on cultural heritage. We provide a case study demonstrating that winter road salt, used to reduce ice related accidents, damages historical iron milestones. As the climate warms, road salt use will move north into areas where sites have been protected by contiguous winter snow cover. This will expose Artic/sub-Arctic cultural heritage, including Viking graves and Sami sites, to a new anthropogenic source of damage. Research and planning should therefore include the evaluation of secondary impacts when choosing climate adaptation strategies.

scholarly journals 2 °C vs. High Warming: Transitions to Flood-Generating Mechanisms across Canada

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 1494
Author(s):  
Bernardo Teufel ◽  
Laxmi Sushama
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Relative Contribution ◽  
Late 21St Century ◽  
Transient Climate Change ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Change Mitigation

Fluvial flooding in Canada is often snowmelt-driven, thus occurs mostly in spring, and has caused billions of dollars in damage in the past decade alone. In a warmer climate, increasing rainfall and changing snowmelt rates could lead to significant shifts in flood-generating mechanisms. Here, projected changes to flood-generating mechanisms in terms of the relative contribution of snowmelt and rainfall are assessed across Canada, based on an ensemble of transient climate change simulations performed using a state-of-the-art regional climate model. Changes to flood-generating mechanisms are assessed for both a late 21st century, high warming (i.e., Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) scenario, and in a 2 °C global warming context. Under 2 °C of global warming, the relative contribution of snowmelt and rainfall to streamflow peaks is projected to remain close to that of the current climate, despite slightly increased rainfall contribution. In contrast, a high warming scenario leads to widespread increases in rainfall contribution and the emergence of hotspots of change in currently snowmelt-dominated regions across Canada. In addition, several regions in southern Canada would be projected to become rainfall dominated. These contrasting projections highlight the importance of climate change mitigation, as remaining below the 2 °C global warming threshold can avoid large changes over most regions, implying a low likelihood that expensive flood adaptation measures would be necessary.

From vision to action: roadmapping as a strategic method and tool to implement climate change adaptation – the example of the roadmap ‘water sensitive urban design 2020’

2016 ◽  
Vol 73 (9) ◽  
pp. 2251-2259 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. U. Hasse ◽  
D. E. Weingaertner
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Urban Design ◽  
Climate Change Adaptation ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Support Tool ◽  
Process Support ◽  
Development Processes ◽  
Water Sensitive Urban Design

As the central product of the BMBF-KLIMZUG-funded Joint Network and Research Project (JNRP) ‘dynaklim – Dynamic adaptation of regional planning and development processes to the effects of climate change in the Emscher-Lippe region (North Rhine Westphalia, Germany)’, the Roadmap 2020 ‘Regional Climate Adaptation’ has been developed by the various regional stakeholders and institutions containing specific regional scenarios, strategies and adaptation measures applicable throughout the region. This paper presents the method, elements and main results of this regional roadmap process by using the example of the thematic sub-roadmap ‘Water Sensitive Urban Design 2020’. With a focus on the process support tool ‘KlimaFLEX’, one of the main adaptation measures of the WSUD 2020 roadmap, typical challenges for integrated climate change adaptation like scattered knowledge, knowledge gaps and divided responsibilities but also potential solutions and promising chances for urban development and urban water management are discussed. With the roadmap and the related tool, the relevant stakeholders of the Emscher-Lippe region have jointly developed important prerequisites to integrate their knowledge, to clarify vulnerabilities, adaptation goals, responsibilities and interests, and to foresightedly coordinate measures, resources, priorities and schedules for an efficient joint urban planning, well-grounded decision-making in times of continued uncertainties and step-by-step implementation of adaptation measures from now on.

scholarly journals Climate Change Trends and Impacts on California Agriculture: A Detailed Review

Agronomy ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 25 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tapan Pathak ◽  
Mahesh Maskey ◽  
Jeffery Dahlberg ◽  
Faith Kearns ◽  
Khaled Bali ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Sufficient Evidence ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Detailed Review ◽  
California Agriculture

California is a global leader in the agricultural sector and produces more than 400 types of commodities. The state produces over a third of the country’s vegetables and two-thirds of its fruits and nuts. Despite being highly productive, current and future climate change poses many challenges to the agricultural sector. This paper provides a summary of the current state of knowledge on historical and future trends in climate and their impacts on California agriculture. We present a synthesis of climate change impacts on California agriculture in the context of: (1) historic trends and projected changes in temperature, precipitation, snowpack, heat waves, drought, and flood events; and (2) consequent impacts on crop yields, chill hours, pests and diseases, and agricultural vulnerability to climate risks. Finally, we highlight important findings and directions for future research and implementation. The detailed review presented in this paper provides sufficient evidence that the climate in California has changed significantly and is expected to continue changing in the future, and justifies the urgency and importance of enhancing the adaptive capacity of agriculture and reducing vulnerability to climate change. Since agriculture in California is very diverse and each crop responds to climate differently, climate adaptation research should be locally focused along with effective stakeholder engagement and systematic outreach efforts for effective adoption and implementation. The expected readership of this paper includes local stakeholders, researchers, state and national agencies, and international communities interested in learning about climate change and California’s agriculture.

scholarly journals A Framework for Identification, Assessment and Prioritization of Climate Change Adaptation Measures for Roads and Railways

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (23) ◽  
pp. 12314
Author(s):  
Yvonne Andersson-Sköld ◽  
Lina Nordin ◽  
Erik Nyberg ◽  
Mikael Johannesson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Reduction ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Preventive Measures ◽  
Hazard Identification ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Costs And Benefits ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Severe Accidents ◽  
Risk Reduction Measures

Severe accidents and high costs associated with weather-related events already occur in today’s climate. Unless preventive measures are taken, the costs are expected to increase in future due to ongoing climate change. However, the risk reduction measures are costly as well and may result in unwanted impacts. Therefore, it is important to identify, assess and prioritize which measures are necessary to undertake, as well as where and when these are to be undertaken. To be able to make such evaluations, robust (scientifically based), transparent and systematic assessments and valuations are required. This article describes a framework to assess the cause-and-effect relationships and how to estimate the costs and benefits as a basis to assess and prioritize measures for climate adaptation of roads and railways. The framework includes hazard identification, risk analysis and risk assessment, identification, monetary and non-monetary evaluation of possible risk reduction measures and a step regarding distribution-, goal- and sensitivity analyses. The results from applying the framework shall be used to prioritize among potential risk reduction measures as well as when to undertake them.

scholarly journals Assessment of costs on the adaptation to climate change in Ukraine

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 (4) ◽  
pp. 60-71
Author(s):  
Galyna Trypolska ◽  
◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Protection ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Global Environmental ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Adaptive Nature ◽  
Regional Budgets ◽  
Promising Source ◽  
First Time

The paper focuses on the main adaptation measures financed in Ukraine at the expense of state and regional budgets region-wise during 2016-2018 within the framework of environmental activities. The source of data was "Environmental passports of the regions". The paper finds that during 2016-2018 the most funded items of expenditure were the construction and repair of sewerage, clearing of riverbeds, repair of water protection structures and wastewater treatment. A significant gap in the cost of measures of an adaptive nature between the regions is established. Expenditures in the Transcarpathian region, which most suffers from floods, were the lowest: they were 46 times lower than expenditures on adaptation measures in the Dnipropetrovsk region, which actively allocated funds for clearing riverbeds and strengthening the river banks. During 2016-2018, almost USD 110 million were proved to be spent on adaptation measures in Ukraine. The main source of funds were local budgets, in particular regional environmental funds. Green bonds are determined to become a promising source of funding for adaptation measures in Ukraine. For the first time, the amount of funds required for adaptation measures in Ukraine until 2050 has been partially estimated. It is proved that the only international funds that can provide funding for adaptation measures in Ukraine in late 2020, is the Global Environmental Facility.

scholarly journals Projected changes in temperature and precipitation over mainland Southeast Asia by CMIP6 models

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Supharatid ◽  
J. Nafung ◽  
T. Aribarg
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Southwest Monsoon ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Northeast Monsoon ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Projected Changes

Abstract Five mainland SEA countries (Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Vietnam, and Thailand) are threatened by climate change. Here, the latest 18 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) is employed to examine future climate change in this region under two SSP-RCP (shared socioeconomic pathway-representative concentration pathway) scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). The bias-corrected multi-model ensemble (MME) projects a warming (wetting) over Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Vietnam, and Thailand by 1.88–3.89, 2.04–4.22, 1.88–4.09, 2.03–4.25, and 1.90–3.96 °C (8.76–20.47, 12.69–21.10, 9.54–21.10, 13.47–22.12, and 7.03–15.17%) in the 21st century with larger values found under SSP5-8.5 than SSP2-4.5. The MME model displays approximately triple the current rainfall during the boreal summer. Overall, there are robust increases in rainfall during the Southwest Monsoon (3.41–3.44, 8.44–9.53, and 10.89–17.59%) and the Northeast Monsoon (−2.58 to 0.78, −0.43 to 2.81, and 2.32 to 5.45%). The effectiveness of anticipated climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies under SSP2-4.5 results in slowing down the warming trends and decreasing precipitation trends after 2050. All these findings imply that member countries of mainland SEA need to prepare for appropriate adaptation measures in response to the changing climate.

scholarly journals As Experiências da Coalizão Adapta Sertão na Disseminação de Tecnologias e Estratégias de Adaptação à Mudança Climática para o Agricultor Familiar do Semiárido Brasileiro (The experience of the Adapta Sertão Coalition in Disseminating Climate Change...)

2012 ◽  
Vol 4 (6) ◽  
pp. 1336 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniele Cesano ◽  
Emilio Lèbre La Rovere ◽  
Martin Obermaier ◽  
Thais Corral ◽  
Laise Santos da Silva ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Production Systems ◽  
Public Policies ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Small Farmers ◽  
Family Farming ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Access To Water ◽  
Semi Arid

Este artigo descreve a experiência da coalizão Adapta Sertão na experimentação e disseminação de sistemas produtivos que possam tornar o agricultor familiar do Semiárido mais resiliente aos impactos da variação climática atual e da mudança do clima no futuro. Durante as experimentações, a coalizão teve que enfrentar várias barreiras ligadas à falta de integração entre políticas públicas existentes e projetos pilotos em comunidades locais. Hoje, a adaptação à mudança do clima não está sendo considerada na implementação de obras hídricas de pequeno e médio porte, que são de grande importância porque, geralmente, conseguem beneficiar as faixas de população mais pobres e mais suscetíveis aos impactos climáticos. As experiências mostram que é preciso desenvolver, com urgência, políticas públicas inovadoras que consigam integrar o acesso à água com a disseminação de tecnologias de adaptação e de sistemas produtivos mais resilientes à seca.  Palavras - chave: medidas de adaptação, agricultura familiar, semiárido, tecnologia.  The experience of the Adapta Sertão Coalition in Disseminating Climate Change Adaptation Technologies and Strategies for Family Farmers in Semi Arid Brazil  ABSTRACTThis paper describes the experience of the Adapta Sertão coalition in testing and experimenting production systems that have the potential to make small farmers of semi-arid Brazil more resilient to current and future climate change impacts. During the different testing, the coalition had to overcome several barriers linked to a lack of integration between current public policies. For example, today climate change is not considered in the design and implementation of small and medium hydraulic infrastructures. This limits the benefits to the target groups (small farmers) that are more likely to be affected by climate change. The experiences show that it is urgent and necessary to develop public policies to better integrate access to water, dissemination of climate resilient technologies and implementation of production systems more adequate to the semi arid conditions.  Keywords: adaptation measures, family farming, semi-arid, technology.

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