scholarly journals Coevolution of Hydrological Cycle Components under Climate Change: The Case of the Garonne River in France

Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 1870 ◽  
Author(s):  
Youen Grusson ◽  
François Anctil ◽  
Sabine Sauvage ◽  
José Miguel Sánchez Pérez
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Green Water ◽  
Climatic Data ◽  
Strong Impact ◽  
Catchment Scale ◽  
Garonne River ◽  
The Many

Climate change is suspected to impact water circulation within the hydrological cycle at catchment scale. A SWAT model approach to assess the evolution of the many hydrological components of the Garonne catchment (Southern France) is deployed in this study. Performance over the calibration period (2000–2010) are satisfactory, with Nash–Sutcliffe ranging from 0.55 to 0.94 or R2 from 0.86 to 0.98. Similar performance values are obtained in validation (1962–2000). Water cycle is first analyzed based on past observed climatic data (1962–2010) to understand its variations and geographical spread. Comparison is then conducted against the different trends obtained from a climate ensemble over 2010–2050. Results show a strong impact on green water, such as a reduction of the soil water content (SWC) and a substantial increase in evapotranspiration (ET) in winter. In summer, however, some part of the watershed faces lower ET fluxes because of a lack of SWC to answer the evapotranspiratory demand, highlighting possible future deficits of green water stocks. Blue water fluxes are found significantly decreasing during summer, when in winter, discharge in the higher part of the watershed is found increasing because of a lower snow stock associated to an increase of liquid precipitation, benefiting surface runoff.

scholarly journals Future Climate Change Impact on the Nyabugogo Catchment Water Balance in Rwanda

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (24) ◽  
pp. 3636
Author(s):  
Adeline Umugwaneza ◽  
Xi Chen ◽  
Tie Liu ◽  
Zhengyang Li ◽  
Solange Uwamahoro ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Surface Runoff ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Baseline Scenario ◽  
The Impact

Droughts and floods are common in tropical regions, including Rwanda, and are likely to be aggravated by climate change. Consequently, assessing the effects of climate change on hydrological systems has become critical. The goal of this study is to analyze the impact of climate change on the water balance in the Nyabugogo catchment by downscaling 10 global climate models (GCMs) from CMIP6 using the inverse distance weighting (IDW) method. To apply climate change signals under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) (low and high emission) scenarios, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used. For the baseline scenario, the period 1950–2014 was employed, whereas the periods 2020–2050 and 2050–2100 were used for future scenario analysis. The streamflow was projected to decrease by 7.2 and 3.49% under SSP126 in the 2020–2050 and 2050–2100 periods, respectively; under SSP585, it showed a 3.26% increase in 2020–2050 and a 4.53% decrease in 2050–2100. The average annual surface runoff was projected to decrease by 11.66 (4.40)% under SSP126 in the 2020–2050 (2050–2100) period, while an increase of 3.25% in 2020–2050 and a decline of 5.42% in 2050–2100 were expected under SSP585. Climate change is expected to have an impact on the components of the hydrological cycle (such as streamflow and surface runoff). This situation may, therefore, lead to an increase in water stress, calling for the integrated management of available water resources in order to match the increasing water demand in the study area. This study’s findings could be useful for the establishment of adaptation plans to climate change, managing water resources, and water engineering.

scholarly journals The Application of Improved SWAT Model to Hydrological Cycle Study in Karst Area of South China

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (18) ◽  
pp. 5024 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wang ◽  
Shao ◽  
Su ◽  
Cui ◽  
Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Southern China ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Karst Area ◽  
Karst Water ◽  
Distributed Hydrological Model ◽  
Lumped Model

In the karst area of southern China, karst water is important for supporting the sustainable production and home living for the local residents. Consequently, it is of significance to fully understand the water cycle, so as to make full use of water resources. In karst areas, epikarst and conduits are developed, participating in the hydrological cycle actively. For conventional lumped hydrologic models, it is difficult to simulate the hydrological cycle accurately. These models neglect to consider the variation of underlying surface and weather change. Meanwhile, for the original distributed hydrological model, the existence of epikarst and underground conduits as well as inadequate data information also make it difficult to achieve accurate simulation. To this end, the framework combining the advantages of lumped model–reservoir model and distributed hydrologic model–Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is established to simulate the water cycle efficiently in a karst area. Xianghualing karst watershed in southern China was selected as the study area and the improved SWAT model was used to simulate the water cycle. Results show that the indicators of ENS and R2 in the calibration and verification periods are both above 0.8, which is evidently improved in comparison with the original model. The improved SWAT model is verified to have better efficiency in describing the hydrological cycle in a typical karst area.

scholarly journals Earth's water reservoirs in a changing climate

2020 ◽  
Vol 476 (2236) ◽  
pp. 20190458 ◽  
Author(s):  
Graeme L. Stephens ◽  
Julia M. Slingo ◽  
Eric Rignot ◽  
John T. Reager ◽  
Maria Z. Hakuba ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Water Reservoirs ◽  
Future Evolution ◽  
Quantitative Understanding ◽  
Global Mean Sea Level ◽  
Earth’S Climate ◽  
The Many ◽  
Different Sources

Progress towards achieving a quantitative understanding of the exchanges of water between Earth's main water reservoirs is reviewed with emphasis on advances accrued from the latest advances in Earth Observation from space. These exchanges of water between the reservoirs are a result of processes that are at the core of important physical Earth-system feedbacks, which fundamentally control the response of Earth's climate to the greenhouse gas forcing it is now experiencing, and are therefore vital to understanding the future evolution of Earth's climate. The changing nature of global mean sea level (GMSL) is the context for discussion of these exchanges. Different sources of satellite observations that are used to quantify ice mass loss and water storage over continents, how water can be tracked to its source using water isotope information and how the waters in different reservoirs influence the fluxes of water between reservoirs are described. The profound influence of Earth's hydrological cycle, including human influences on it, on the rate of GMSL rise is emphasized. The many intricate ways water cycle processes influence water exchanges between reservoirs and thus sea-level rise, including disproportionate influences by the tiniest water reservoirs, are emphasized.

Modeling of climate change impact on hydrological regime in small headwater mountainous catchments in Slovakia

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kamila Hlavcova ◽  
Martin Kubán ◽  
Patrik Sleziak ◽  
Jan Szolgay
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Differential Evolution Algorithm ◽  
Hydrological Regime ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Climatic Data ◽  
Reference Period

<p>Assessment of the impacts of climate change on hydrological regime is important for sustainable water resources management. The objective of this study is to assess the impacts of future climate changes on the hydrological regime of the headwater catchment of the Vistucky Creek (area 9.8 km2) in south-western Slovakia. Changes in climatic characteristics (i.e. precipitation and air temperature) for periods 2022-2060 and 2062-2100 were prepared by two regional climate models KNMI and MPI using the A1B emission scenario (average related to fossil carbon production). Both climatic scenarios assume increase in the air temperature and precipitation (higher in winter than in summer). A lumped conceptual rainfall-runoff model (the HBV-based TUW model) was used to simulate the catchment hydrological behaviour. The TUW model was calibrated for the reference period of 1982 – 2008. The calibration of the model was performed 50 times with a differential evolution algorithm. After obtaining the collection of the 50 parameter sets, the best set (in terms of Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and the volume error) was chosen. This set of model parameters was used for the simulation of long-term mean monthly runoff for the three periods (i.e. 1982-2008, 2022-2060, and 2062-2100). The results show that changes in the long-term runoff seasonality and extremality of hydrological cycle could be expected in the future if the climate changes as the scenarios assume. The runoff should increase in autumn and winter months (i.e. from September to February) and decrease in spring and summer months (i.e, from April to August) compared to the reference period. Peakflows should increase in period 2062-2100 while discharge minima should slightly decrease (only for the climatic data from the KNMI model). It indicates possible increase in flow extremality. Catchment water storage as expressed by the soil moisture index and baseflow should decrease in period 2062-2100, especially according to climatic data from the KNMI model. Our contribution will discuss these changes in hydrological regime in the climate change context.</p>

Community awareness of climate change and urban flood risk: the case of the Simeto River Basin

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paola Nanni ◽  
Rosaria Ester Musumeci ◽  
David J. Peres ◽  
Antonino Cancelliere
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
River Valley ◽  
Community Safety ◽  
Strong Impact ◽  
Urban Flooding ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Alert System ◽  
Urban Floods

<p>Increased urbanization is causing evident negative consequences on the hydrological cycle. In particular, the increase of impervious surfaces is having a strong impact on the water cycle, amplifying the risk of urban floods. These impacts can get even worse for potential climate change impacts. The urban areas of the Simeto Valley, the largest river valley in Sicily (Italy), has been repeatedly hit by heavy rains in the last decades that caused urban flooding causing several problems and, in some instances, threats to population. The threats seem to derive also from a low awareness of the population on the correct behavior to have in potentially dangerous situations. Hence, it seems of key importance that residents develop and internalize a “culture of risk awareness”. The Life SimetoRES Project represents an opportunity to stimulate the development of a responsible and resilient community and at the implementation of best practices for storm water management. In the Simeto River Valley community has started in the recent decades to formally have an identity (for instance, by signing a River Agreement) and has already supported initiatives in the responsible and participatory co-management of the territory. Thus, this Valley represents an excellent context to investigate this problem and to understand the involvement of the citizens in solving climate change and urban floods. In order to maximize the effectiveness of the communication campaigns and the actions to safeguard the community, a study through a survey on the climate change and risk perception in 11 municipalities has been carried out, collecting 1143 answers. Starting from the current hydrogeological risk, quantified by the Flood Risk Management Plan, the goal was to identify the perception and the awareness of the citizens. A section of the questionnaire involved the direct experience of the residents during rain events, their relationship with the alert system and their knowledge of the correct behavior in case of flood. Finally, the survey investigated the willingness of citizens to implement adaptation actions in their own municipality and in their homes. The results show that over 52% of citizens is not aware of the real use of the infrastructures devised for urban drainage and only the 30% feels responsible about mitigation of flooding risk. Inaccurate weather warnings can endanger more inhabitants who don't trust the alert system. The results show that it is necessary to make incisive actions to educate people, especially in school age, on the correct behavior to take in case of urban flooding, and encourage citizens to acknowledge themselves as an active part of the mechanism of their own and community safety.</p>

scholarly journals Estimated Impacts of Climate Change on Eddy Meridional Moisture Transport in the Atmosphere

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (23) ◽  
pp. 4992 ◽  
Author(s):  
Soldatenko
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Baroclinic Instability ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Static Stability ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Atmospheric Moisture ◽  
Global Water Cycle

Research findings suggest that water (hydrological) cycle of the earth intensifies in response to climate change, since the amount of water that evaporates from the ocean and land to the atmosphere and the total water content in the air will increase with temperature. In addition, climate change affects the large-scale atmospheric circulation by, for example, altering the characteristics of extratropical transient eddies (cyclones), which play a dominant role in the meridional transport of heat, moisture, and momentum from tropical to polar latitudes. Thus, climate change also affects the planetary hydrological cycle by redistributing atmospheric moisture around the globe. Baroclinic instability, a specific type of dynamical instability of the zonal atmospheric flow, is the principal mechanism by which extratropical cyclones form and evolve. It is expected that, due to global warming, the two most fundamental dynamical quantities that control the development of baroclinic instability and the overall global atmospheric dynamics—the parameter of static stability and the meridional temperature gradient (MTG)—will undergo certain changes. As a result, climate change can affect the formation and evolution of transient extratropical eddies and, therefore, macro-exchange of heat and moisture between low and high latitudes and the global water cycle as a whole. In this paper, we explore the effect of changes in the static stability parameter and MTG caused by climate change on the annual-mean eddy meridional moisture flux (AMEMF), using the two classical atmospheric models: the mid-latitude f-plane model and the two-layer β-plane model. These models are represented in two versions: “dry,” which considers the static stability of dry air alone, and “moist,” in which effective static stability is considered as a combination of stability of dry and moist air together. Sensitivity functions were derived for these models that enable estimating the influence of infinitesimal perturbations in the parameter of static stability and MTG on the AMEMF and on large-scale eddy dynamics characterized by the growth rate of unstable baroclinic waves of various wavelengths. For the base climate change scenario, in which the surface temperature increases by 1 °C and warming of the upper troposphere outpaces warming of the lower troposphere by 2 °C (this scenario corresponds to the observed warming trend), the response of the mass-weighted vertically averaged annual mean MTG is -0.2 ℃ per 1000 km. The dry static stability increases insignificantly relative to the reference climate state, while on the other hand, the effective static stability decreases by more than 5.4%. Assuming that static stability of the atmosphere and the MTG are independent of each other (using One-factor-at-a-time approach), we estimate that the increase in AMEMF caused by change in MTG is about 4%. Change in dry static stability has little effect on AMEMF, while change in effective static stability leads to an increase in AMEMF of about 5%. Thus, neglecting atmospheric moisture in calculations of the atmospheric static stability leads to tangible differences between the results obtained using the dry and moist models. Moist models predict ~9% increase in AMEMF due to global warming. Dry models predict ~4% increase in AMEMF solely because of the change in MTG. For the base climate change scenario, the average temperature of the lower troposphere (up to ~4 km), in which the atmospheric moisture is concentrated, increases by ~1.5 ℃. This leads to an increase in specific humidity of about 10.5%. Thus, since both AMEMF and atmospheric water vapor content increase due to the influence of climate change, a rather noticeable restructuring of the global water cycle is expected.

scholarly journals Water resources availability under different climate change scenarios in South East of Iran

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Reza Iranmanesh ◽  
Navid Jalalkamali ◽  
Omid Tayari
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Green Water ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Available Water ◽  
East Of Iran ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The comprehensive large-scale assessment of future available water resources is crucial for food security in countries dealing with water shortages like Iran. Kerman province, located in the south east of Iran, is an agricultural hub and has vital importance for food security. This study attempts to project the impact of climate change on available water resources of this province and then, by defining different scenarios, to determine the amount of necessary reduction in cultivation areas to achieve water balance over the province. The GFDL-ESM2M climate change model, RCP scenarios, and the CCT (Climate Change Toolkit) were used to project changes in climatic variables, and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used for hydrological simulation. The future period for which forecasts are made is 2020–2050. Based on the coefficient of determination (R2) and Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient, the CCT demonstrates good performance in data downscaling. The results show that under all climate change scenarios, most parts of the province are likely to experience an increase in precipitation yet to achieve water balance a 10% decrease in the cultivation area is necessary under the RCP8.5 scenario. The results of the SWAT model show that green water storage in central and western parts of the province is higher than that in other parts.

scholarly journals The Impact of Climate Change on Reservoir Inflows Using Multi Climate-Model under RCPs’ Including Extreme Events—A Case of Mangla Dam, Pakistan

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Babur ◽  
Mukand Singh Babel ◽  
Sangam Shrestha ◽  
Akiyuki Kawasaki ◽  
Nitin Kumar Tripathi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Spring Discharge ◽  
Climatic Data ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
The Impact

Assessment of extreme events and climate change on reservoir inflow is important for water and power stressed countries. Projected climate is subject to uncertainties related to climate change scenarios and Global Circulation Models (GCMs’). Extreme climatic events will increase with the rise in temperature as mentioned in the AR5 of the IPCC. This paper discusses the consequences of climate change that include extreme events on discharge. Historical climatic and gauging data were collected from different stations within a watershed. The observed flow data was used for calibration and validation of SWAT model. Downscaling was performed on future GCMs’ temperature and precipitation data, and plausible extreme events were generated. Corrected climatic data was applied to project the influence of climate change. Results showed a large uncertainty in discharge using different GCMs’ and different emissions scenarios. The annual tendency of the GCMs’ is bi-vocal: six GCMs’ projected a rise in annual flow, while one GCM projected a decrease in flow. The change in average seasonal flow is more as compared to annual variations. Changes in winter and spring discharge are mostly positive, even with the decrease in precipitation. The changes in flows are generally negative for summer and autumn due to early snowmelt from an increase in temperature. The change in average seasonal flows under RCPs’ 4.5 and 8.5 are projected to vary from -29.1 to 130.7% and -49.4 to 171%, respectively. In the medium range (RCP 4.5) impact scenario, the uncertainty range of average runoff is relatively low. While in the high range (RCP 8.5) impact scenario, this range is significantly larger. RCP 8.5 covered a wide range of uncertainties, while RCP 4.5 covered a short range of possibilities. These outcomes suggest that it is important to consider the influence of climate change on water resources to frame appropriate guidelines for planning and management.

scholarly journals Interactive influence of climate variability and land-use change on blue and green water resources: a case study from the Ganjiang River Basin, China

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenting Li ◽  
Xiaoli Yang ◽  
Liliang Ren ◽  
Qianguo Lin ◽  
Xiong Zhou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Green Water ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Blue Water ◽  
Ganjiang River Basin

Abstract The response of blue and green water to climate and land-use change in the Ganjiang River Basin (GRB) is evaluated, via the SWAT model that combines three scenarios (the land-use/land-cover (LULC), climate change, and integrated climate and LULC change scenarios) in the 2040s (2031–2050) and 2060s (2051–2070). The results indicate that, for the GRB, cropland, woodland, and grassland show a decreasing trend, while build-up and water areas show an increasing trend in terms of future land-use change. The climatic conditions projected using NORESM1-M model data under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios suggest, respectively, increases in precipitation (31.17 and 27.24 mm), maximum temperature (2.25 and 2.69 °C), and minimum temperature (1.96 and 2.58 °C). Under climate change conditions, blue water is estimated to decrease by up to 16.89 and 21.4 mm under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, while green water is estimated to increase up to 19.14 and 20.22 mm, respectively. Under the LULC changes, blue water is projected to increase by up to 5.50 and 7.57 mm, while green water shows decreases of 4.05 and 7.80 mm for the LULC2035 and LULC2055 scenarios, respectively. Under the four combined LULC and climate change conditions (RCP4.5_2040s, RCP4.5_2060s, RCP8.5_2040s, and RCP8.5_2060s), blue water tends to decrease by 0.67, 7.47, 7.28, and 9.99 mm, while green water increases by 19.24, 20.8, 13.87, and 22.30 mm. The influence of climate variation on blue and green water resources is comparatively higher than that of the integrated impacts of climate and land-use changes. The results of this study offer a scientific reference for the water resources management and planning department responsible for scheduling water resource management plan in the GRB.

scholarly journals Impact of climate change on surface runoff: a case study of the Darabad River, northeast of Iran

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamid Reza Zakizadeh ◽  
Hassan Ahmadi ◽  
Gholam Reza Zehtabiyan ◽  
Abolfazl Moeini ◽  
Alireza Moghaddamnia
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Optimal Parameter ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Surface Flow ◽  
Natural Ecosystems ◽  
Hydrological Simulation ◽  
Climate Conditions

Abstract Climate change is one of the major challenges affecting natural ecosystems and various aspects of human life. The effects of global warming on the hydrology and water cycle in nature are very serious, and the quantitative recognition of these effects creates more readiness to deal with its consequences. In the present study, the 2006–2100 period is predicted based on the statistical downscaling model (SDSM). Finally, the effects of climate change on the hydrological conditions in the Darabad watershed are simulated using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model. The SWAT model calibration is done based on the SUFI-2 algorithm, and the effective and optimal parameter is identified. The results of the study, while confirming the efficiency of both SDSM in climate simulations and SWAT in hydrological simulation, showed that the increase in precipitation and temperature is probably in future climate conditions for the 2010–2040 period. The surface flow and runoff at the watershed area during the observation period (1970–2010) is 0.29 m3/s, but this value for the predicted period with regard to climate change in the RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 scenarios is equal to 0.43, 0.44, and 0.45 m3/s. The results of research, while highlighting the importance of effects of climate change, make it essential to apply them for proper management in order to adapt to climate change in the future policies of the Darabad watershed management.

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