scholarly journals Evaluating Future Flood Scenarios Using CMIP5 Climate Projections

Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 1866 ◽  
Author(s):  
Narayan Nyaupane ◽  
Balbhadra Thakur ◽  
Ajay Kalra ◽  
Sajjad Ahmad
Keyword(s):  
Flood Risk ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Flood Inundation ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
Flood Level ◽  
The Future ◽  
Carson River ◽  
Inundation Map ◽  
Flooding Events

Frequent flooding events in recent years have been linked with the changing climate. Comprehending flooding events and their risks is the first step in flood defense and can help to mitigate flood risk. Floodplain mapping is the first step towards flood risk analysis and management. Additionally, understanding the changing pattern of flooding events would help us to develop flood mitigation strategies for the future. This study analyzes the change in streamflow under different future carbon emission scenarios and evaluates the spatial extent of floodplain for future streamflow. The study will help facility managers, design engineers, and stakeholders to mitigate future flood risks. Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) forcing-generated Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) streamflow data were utilized for the future streamflow analysis. The study was done on the Carson River near Carson City, an agricultural area in the desert of Nevada. Kolmogorov–Smirnov and Pearson Chi-square tests were utilized to obtain the best statistical distribution that represents the routed streamflow of the Carson River near Carson City. Altogether, 97 projections from 31 models with four emission scenarios were used to predict the future flood flow over 100 years using a best fit distribution. A delta change factor was used to predict future flows, and the flow routing was done with the Hydrologic Engineering Center’s River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) model to obtain a flood inundation map. A majority of the climate projections indicated an increase in the flood level 100 years into the future. The developed floodplain map for the future streamflow indicated a larger inundation area compared with the current Federal Emergency Management Agency’s flood inundation map, highlighting the importance of climate data in floodplain management studies.

Flood recurrence under climate change: a probabilistic flood risk assessment of critical infrastructure in the Danube basin

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michel Wortmann ◽  
Kai Schröter
Keyword(s):  
Flood Risk ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Critical Infrastructure ◽  
Insurance Industry ◽  
Danube River ◽  
Detailed Model ◽  
Flood Level ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

<p>Consistent information on fluvial flood risks in large river basins is typically sparse. This is especially true for the Danube River basin covering up to 14 countries and creating a patchwork of flood risk information across a populous and flood-prone region. As climatic changes have shown to increase flooding in the future, consistent basin-scale assessments prove vital to the insurance industry as well as municipal and infrastructural planning. The Future Danube Model (FDM) was designed to fill this gap complying to both insurance industry and climate science standards. That is, allowing for a reasonably detailed model scale (based on a 25m digital elevation model), stochastic sampling to create a large number of extreme events and flood event footprints (10k years), a thorough calibration and validation as well as the use of an ensemble of climate model output to drive the model under scenario conditions. The model is here used to assess the impact on critical infrastructure across the basin. Results indicate a marked increase in flood risk has already occurred when comparing the current climate period (2006-2035) to the reference period (1970-1999). Further increases are projected under a moderate and a business as usual scenario for the next climate period (2020-2049) and the end of the century (2070-2099). In large parts of the basin, the historical 100-year flood level, often used as a critical protection level for infrastructure, is projected to be equalled or exceeded every 50–10 years, while areas with a 100-year flood risk are projected to increase by 6-19%.</p>

scholarly journals Future Flood Risk Assessment under the Effects of Land Use and Climate Change in the Tiaoxi Basin

Sensors ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (21) ◽  
pp. 6079
Author(s):  
Leilei Li ◽  
Jintao Yang ◽  
Jin Wu
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Cultivated Land ◽  
Climate Trend ◽  
The Neural Network ◽  
The Future ◽  
Effects Of Land Use

Global warming and land-use change affects runoff in the regional basin. Affected by different factors, such as abundant rainfall and increased impervious surface, the Taihu basin becomes more vulnerable to floods. As a result, a future flood risk analysis is of great significance. This paper simulated the land-use expansion and analyzed the surface change from 2020 to 2050 using the neural network Cellular Automata Markov (CA-Markov) model. Moreover, the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Climate Projections (NEX-GDDP) dataset was corrected for deviation and used to analyze the climate trend. Second, the verified SWAT model was applied to simulate future runoff and to analyze the future flood risk. The results show that (1) land use is dominated by cultivated land and forests. In the future, the area of cultivated land will decrease and construction land will expand to 1.5 times its present size. (2) The average annual precipitation and temperature will increase by 1.2% and 1.5 degrees from 2020 to 2050, respectively. During the verified period, the NSE and r-square values of the SWAT model are greater than 0.7. (3) Compared with the historical extreme runoff, the extreme runoff in the return period will increase 10%~25% under the eight climate models in 2050. In general, the flood risk will increase further under the climate scenarios.

scholarly journals Predicting future US water yield and ecosystem productivity by linking an ecohydrological model to WRF dynamically downscaled climate projections

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 12703-12746
Author(s):  
S. Sun ◽  
G. Sun ◽  
E. Cohen ◽  
S. G. McNulty ◽  
P. Caldwell ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Stress Index ◽  
Water Yield ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Ecosystem Productivity ◽  
The Future ◽  
Ecohydrological Model ◽  
Ipcc Sres ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract. Quantifying the potential impacts of climate change on water yield and ecosystem productivity (i.e., carbon balances) is essential to developing sound watershed restoration plans, and climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. This study links an ecohydrological model (Water Supply and Stress Index, WaSSI) with WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting Model) dynamically downscaled climate projections of the HadCM3 model under the IPCC SRES A2 emission scenario. We evaluated the future (2031–2060) changes in evapotranspiration (ET), water yield (Q) and gross primary productivity (GPP) from the baseline period of 1979–2007 across the 82 773 watersheds (12 digit Hydrologic Unit Code level) in the conterminous US (CONUS), and evaluated the future annual and monthly changes of hydrology and ecosystem productivity for the 18 Water Resource Regions (WRRs) or 2-digit HUCs. Across the CONUS, the future multi-year means show increases in annual precipitation (P) of 45 mm yr−1 (6 %), 1.8 °C increase in temperature (T), 37 mm yr−1 (7 %) increase in ET, 9 mm yr−1 (3 %) increase in Q, and 106 g C m−2 yr−1 (9 %) increase in GPP. Response to climate change was highly variable across the 82, 773 watersheds, but in general, the majority would see consistent increases in all variables evaluated. Over half of the 82 773 watersheds, mostly found in the northeast and the southern part of the southwest would have an increase in annual Q (>100 mm yr−1 or 20 %). This study provides an integrated method and example for comprehensive assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on watershed water balances and ecosystem productivity at high spatial and temporal resolutions. Results will be useful for policy-makers and land managers in formulating appropriate watershed-specific strategies for sustaining water and carbon sources in the face of climate change.

scholarly journals Coping with Extreme Events: Effect of Different Reservoir Operation Strategies on Flood Inundation Maps

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 982 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elena Ridolfi ◽  
Silvia Di Francesco ◽  
Claudia Pandolfo ◽  
Nicola Berni ◽  
Chiara Biscarini ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Flood Risk ◽  
Flood Control ◽  
Central Italy ◽  
Test Site ◽  
Hydraulic Model ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Flood Inundation ◽  
Initial Water ◽  
Protection Measures ◽  
Inundation Maps

The need of addressing “residual flood risk” associated with structural protection measures, such as levee systems and flood-control reservoirs, has fostered actions aimed at increasing flood risk awareness. Structural measures have lowered risk perception by inducing a false sense of safety. As a result, these structures contribute to an underestimation of the “residual risk”. We analyze the effect of different reservoir operations, such as coping with drought versus coping with flood events, on flood inundation patterns. First, a hydrological model simulates different scenarios, which represent the dam regulation strategies. Each regulation strategy is the combination of an opening of the outlet gate and of the initial water level in the reservoir. Second, the corresponding outputs of the dam in terms of maximum discharge values are estimated. Then, in turn, each output of the dam is used as an upstream boundary condition of a hydraulic model used to simulate the flood propagation and the inundation processes in the river reach. The hydraulic model is thus used to determine the effect, in terms of inundated areas, of each dam regulation scenario. Finally, the ensemble of all flood inundation maps is built to define the areas more prone to be flooded. The test site is the Casanuova dam (Umbria, central Italy) which aims at: (i) mitigating floods occurring at the Chiascio River, one of the main tributaries of Tiber River, while (ii) providing water supply for irrigation. Because of these two competitive interests, the understanding of different scenarios generated by the dam operations offers an unique support to flood mitigation strategies. Results can lead to draw interesting remarks for a wide number of case studies.

scholarly journals Forecasting of Future Flooding and Risk Assessment under CMIP6 Climate Projection in Neuse River, North Carolina

Forecasting ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 323-345
Author(s):  
Indira Pokhrel ◽  
Ajay Kalra ◽  
Md Mafuzur Rahaman ◽  
Ranjeet Thakali
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North Carolina ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Cumulative Distribution ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Flood Inundation ◽  
Floodplain Management ◽  
Essential Information ◽  
Neuse River

Hydrological extremes associated with climate change are becoming an increasing concern all over the world. Frequent flooding, one of the extremes, needs to be analyzed while considering climate change to mitigate flood risk. This study forecast streamflow and evaluate risk of flooding in the Neuse River, North Carolina considering future climatic scenarios, and comparing them with an existing Federal Emergency Management Agency study. The cumulative distribution function transformation method was adopted for bias correction to reduce the uncertainty present in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) streamflow data. To calculate 100-year and 500-year flood discharges, the Generalized Extreme Value (L-Moment) was utilized on bias-corrected multimodel ensemble data with different climate projections. Out of all projections, shared socio-economic pathways (SSP5-8.5) exhibited the maximum design streamflow, which was routed through a hydraulic model, the Hydrological Engineering Center’s River Analysis System (HEC-RAS), to generate flood inundation and risk maps. The result indicates an increase in flood inundation extent compared to the existing study, depicting a higher flood hazard and risk in the future. This study highlights the importance of forecasting future flood risk and utilizing the projected climate data to obtain essential information to determine effective strategic plans for future floodplain management.

Future projections of river floods hazard over the multiple CORDEX-CORE domains

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francesca Raffaele ◽  
Fabio Di Sante ◽  
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Weather Extremes ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
The Future

<p>One of the most largely recognized effect of the Global Warming is the change of weather extremes. The increase of extreme precipitation events is directly linked to a greater availability of precipitable water induced by a warmer atmosphere.The flood projected signals are heterogeneous and influenced by different phenomena. As an example, the rise in temperature could increase the risk of floods over the regions sensible to extreme precipitations and at the same time could reduce the risk of floods over the regions sensible to the melted snow accumulated during the cold season. In this work the CORDEX-CORE simulations completed using two different Regional Climate Models (RegCM and REMO) are used to estimate the future changes on flood risk for eight CORDEX domains (North-America, Central-America, South-America, Europe, Africa, West-Asia, East-Asia, South-East-Asia and Australasia). A river-routing model is applied to simulate the river discharge of a high resolution grid (0.06 degree) for three different driving Global Climate Models, two different scenarios (rcp2.6 and rcp8.5) and for each of the domains. The simulated discharges are hence used to fit a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution to estimate the change on flood risk related to the future climate projections.</p>

scholarly journals Future Changes in Tropical Cyclone and Easterly Wave Characteristics over Tropical North America

Oceans ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 429-447
Author(s):  
Christian Dominguez ◽  
James M. Done ◽  
Cindy L. Bruyère
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
North Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Track Density ◽  
Caribbean Region ◽  
Tropical Cyclogenesis ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Southern Mexico ◽  
The North ◽  
The Future

Tropical Cyclones (TCs) and Easterly Waves (EWs) are the most important phenomena in Tropical North America. Thus, examining their future changes is crucial for adaptation and mitigation strategies. The Community Earth System Model drove a three-member regional model multi-physics ensemble under the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 emission scenario for creating four future scenarios (2020–2030, 2030–2040, 2050–2060, 2080–2090). These future climate runs were analyzed to determine changes in EW and TC features: rainfall, track density, contribution to seasonal rainfall, and tropical cyclogenesis. Our study reveals that a mean increase of at least 40% in the mean annual TC precipitation is projected over northern Mexico and southwestern USA. Slight positive changes in EW track density are projected southwards 10° N over the North Atlantic Ocean for the 2050–2060 and 2080–2090 periods. Over the Eastern Pacific Ocean, a mean increment in the EW activity is projected westwards across the future decades. Furthermore, a mean reduction by up to 60% of EW rainfall, mainly over the Caribbean region, Gulf of Mexico, and central-southern Mexico, is projected for the future decades. Tropical cyclogenesis over both basins slightly changes in future scenarios (not significant). We concluded that these variations could have significant impacts on regional precipitation.

scholarly journals The effects of ENSO, climate change and human activities on the water level of Lake Toba, Indonesia: a critical literature review

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hendri Irwandi ◽  
Mohammad Syamsu Rosid ◽  
Terry Mart
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Dominant Factor ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Continuous Increase ◽  
The Future

AbstractThis research quantitatively and qualitatively analyzes the factors responsible for the water level variations in Lake Toba, North Sumatra Province, Indonesia. According to several studies carried out from 1993 to 2020, changes in the water level were associated with climate variability, climate change, and human activities. Furthermore, these studies stated that reduced rainfall during the rainy season due to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the continuous increase in the maximum and average temperatures were some of the effects of climate change in the Lake Toba catchment area. Additionally, human interventions such as industrial activities, population growth, and damage to the surrounding environment of the Lake Toba watershed had significant impacts in terms of decreasing the water level. However, these studies were unable to determine the factor that had the most significant effect, although studies on other lakes worldwide have shown these factors are the main causes of fluctuations or decreases in water levels. A simulation study of Lake Toba's water balance showed the possibility of having a water surplus until the mid-twenty-first century. The input discharge was predicted to be greater than the output; therefore, Lake Toba could be optimized without affecting the future water level. However, the climate projections depicted a different situation, with scenarios predicting the possibility of extreme climate anomalies, demonstrating drier climatic conditions in the future. This review concludes that it is necessary to conduct an in-depth, comprehensive, and systematic study to identify the most dominant factor among the three that is causing the decrease in the Lake Toba water level and to describe the future projected water level.

scholarly journals 100 Years of Progress in Cloud Physics, Aerosols, and Aerosol Chemistry Research

2019 ◽  
Vol 59 ◽  
pp. 11.1-11.72 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sonia M. Kreidenweis ◽  
Markus Petters ◽  
Ulrike Lohmann
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Cloud Microphysics ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Weather Modification ◽  
Theoretical Understanding ◽  
Aerosol Cloud ◽  
Chemistry Research ◽  
Aerosol Cloud Interactions

Abstract This chapter reviews the history of the discovery of cloud nuclei and their impacts on cloud microphysics and the climate system. Pioneers including John Aitken, Sir John Mason, Hilding Köhler, Christian Junge, Sean Twomey, and Kenneth Whitby laid the foundations of the field. Through their contributions and those of many others, rapid progress has been made in the last 100 years in understanding the sources, evolution, and composition of the atmospheric aerosol, the interactions of particles with atmospheric water vapor, and cloud microphysical processes. Major breakthroughs in measurement capabilities and in theoretical understanding have elucidated the characteristics of cloud condensation nuclei and ice nucleating particles and the role these play in shaping cloud microphysical properties and the formation of precipitation. Despite these advances, not all their impacts on cloud formation and evolution have been resolved. The resulting radiative forcing on the climate system due to aerosol–cloud interactions remains an unacceptably large uncertainty in future climate projections. Process-level understanding of aerosol–cloud interactions remains insufficient to support technological mitigation strategies such as intentional weather modification or geoengineering to accelerating Earth-system-wide changes in temperature and weather patterns.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document