scholarly journals Assessment of Changes in Water Balance Components under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C Global Warming in Transitional Climate Basin by Multi-RCPs and Multi-GCMs Approach

Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 1863 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ying Hao ◽  
Jingjin Ma ◽  
Jing Chen ◽  
Dongyong Wang ◽  
Yuan Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Surface Runoff ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Lateral Flow ◽  
Spatial Inhomogeneity ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Water Balance Components ◽  
Change Trend ◽  
The Impact

The global warming of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C proposed in the Paris Agreement has become the iconic threshold of climate change impact research. This study aims to assess the potential impact of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming on water balance components (WBC) in a transitional climate basin—Chaobai River Basin (CRB)—which is the main water supply source of Beijing. A semi-distributed hydrological model SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) was driven by climate projections from five General Circulation Models (GCMs) under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) to simulate the future WBC in CRB under the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming, respectively. The impacts on annual, monthly WBC were assessed and the uncertainty associated with GCMs and RCPs were analyzed quantitatively, based on the model results. Finally, spatial variation of WBC change trend and its possible cause were discussed. The analysis results indicate that all the annual WBC and water budget are projected to increase under both warming scenarios. Change trend of WBC shows significant seasonal and spatial inhomogeneity. The frequency of flood will increase in flood season, while the probability of drought in autumn and March is expected to rise. The uneven spatial distribution of change trend might be attributed to topography and land use. The comparison between two warming scenarios indicates that the increment of 0.5 °C could lead to the decrease in annual surface runoff, lateral flow, percolation, and the increase in annual precipitation and evapotranspiration (ET). Uncertainties of surface runoff, lateral flow, and percolation projections are greater than those of other components. The additional 0.5 °C global warming will lead to larger uncertainties of future temperature, precipitation, surface runoff, and ET assessment, but slightly smaller uncertainties of lateral flow and percolation assessment. GCMs are proved to be the main factors that are responsible for the impact uncertainty of the majority assessed components.

scholarly journals Estimating the Continental Response to Global Warming Using Pattern-Scaled Sea Surface Temperatures and Sea Ice

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (24) ◽  
pp. 9125-9139 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adeline Bichet ◽  
Paul J. Kushner ◽  
Lawrence Mudryk
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Tropical Indian Ocean ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Western Boundary ◽  
Sea Ice Concentration ◽  
Continental Climate

Abstract Better constraining the continental climate response to anthropogenic forcing is essential to improve climate projections. In this study, pattern scaling is used to extract, from observations, the patterned response of sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice concentration (SICE) to anthropogenically dominated long-term global warming. The SST response pattern includes a warming of the tropical Indian Ocean, the high northern latitudes, and the western boundary currents. The SICE pattern shows seasonal variations of the main locations of sea ice loss. These SST–SICE response patterns are used to drive an ensemble of an atmospheric general circulation model, the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model, version 5 (CAM5), over the period 1980–2010 along with a standard AMIP ensemble using observed SST—SICE. The simulations enable attribution of a variety of observed trends of continental climate to global warming. On the one hand, the warming trends observed in all seasons across the entire Northern Hemisphere extratropics result from global warming, as does the snow loss observed over the northern midlatitudes and northwestern Eurasia. On the other hand, 1980–2010 precipitation trends observed in winter over North America and in summer over Africa result from the recent decreasing phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation and the recent increasing phase of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation, respectively, which are not part of the global warming signal. The method holds promise for near-term decadal climate prediction but as currently framed cannot distinguish regional signals associated with oceanic internal variability from aerosol forcing and other sources of short-term forcing.

scholarly journals Variations of global and continental water balance components as impacted by climate forcing uncertainty and human water use

2016 ◽  
Vol 20 (7) ◽  
pp. 2877-2898 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hannes Müller Schmied ◽  
Linda Adam ◽  
Stephanie Eisner ◽  
Gabriel Fink ◽  
Martina Flörke ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Water Use ◽  
Climate Forcing ◽  
Land Area ◽  
Water Balance Components ◽  
Climate Forcings ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Global Water

Abstract. When assessing global water resources with hydrological models, it is essential to know about methodological uncertainties. The values of simulated water balance components may vary due to different spatial and temporal aggregations, reference periods, and applied climate forcings, as well as due to the consideration of human water use, or the lack thereof. We analyzed these variations over the period 1901–2010 by forcing the global hydrological model WaterGAP 2.2 (ISIMIP2a) with five state-of-the-art climate data sets, including a homogenized version of the concatenated WFD/WFDEI data set. Absolute values and temporal variations of global water balance components are strongly affected by the uncertainty in the climate forcing, and no temporal trends of the global water balance components are detected for the four homogeneous climate forcings considered (except for human water abstractions). The calibration of WaterGAP against observed long-term average river discharge Q significantly reduces the impact of climate forcing uncertainty on estimated Q and renewable water resources. For the homogeneous forcings, Q of the calibrated and non-calibrated regions of the globe varies by 1.6 and 18.5 %, respectively, for 1971–2000. On the continental scale, most differences for long-term average precipitation P and Q estimates occur in Africa and, due to snow undercatch of rain gauges, also in the data-rich continents Europe and North America. Variations of Q at the grid-cell scale are large, except in a few grid cells upstream and downstream of calibration stations, with an average variation of 37 and 74 % among the four homogeneous forcings in calibrated and non-calibrated regions, respectively. Considering only the forcings GSWP3 and WFDEI_hom, i.e., excluding the forcing without undercatch correction (PGFv2.1) and the one with a much lower shortwave downward radiation SWD than the others (WFD), Q variations are reduced to 16 and 31 % in calibrated and non-calibrated regions, respectively. These simulation results support the need for extended Q measurements and data sharing for better constraining global water balance assessments. Over the 20th century, the human footprint on natural water resources has become larger. For 11–18% of the global land area, the change of Q between 1941–1970 and 1971–2000 was driven more strongly by change of human water use including dam construction than by change in precipitation, while this was true for only 9–13 % of the land area from 1911–1940 to 1941–1970.

Global BROOK90: validation, uncertainties, current progress and future outline.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ivan Vorobevskii ◽  
Rico Kronenberg
Keyword(s):  
Water Balance ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Easy Access ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Water Balance Components ◽  
Discharge Data ◽  
Small Catchment ◽  
Wide Range

<p>‘Just drop a catchment and receive reasonable model output’ – still stays as motto and main idea of the ‘Global BROOK90’ project. The open-source R-package is build-up on global land cover, soil, topographical, meteorological datasets and the lumped hydrological model as a core to simulate water balance components on HRU scale all over the world in an automatic mode. First introduced in EGU2020 and followed by GitHub code release including an publication of methodology with few examples we want to continue with the insights on the current state and highlight the future steps of the project.</p><p>A global validation of discharge and evapotranspiration components of the model showed promising results. We used 190 small (median size of 64 km<sup>2</sup>) catchments and FLUXNET data which represent a wide range of relief, vegetation and soil types within various climate zones. The model performance was evaluated with NSE, KGE, KGESS and MAE. In more than 75 % of the cases the framework performed better than the mean of the observed discharge. On a temporal scale the performance is significantly better on a monthly vs daily scale. Cluster analysis revealed that some of the site characteristics have a significant influence on the performance. Additionally, it was found that Global BROOK90 outperforms GloFAS ERA5 discharge reanalysis (for the category with smallest catchments).</p><p>A cross-combination of three different BROOK90 setups and three forcing datasets was set up to reveal uncertainties of the Global BROOK90 package using a small catchment in Germany as a case study. Going from local to regional and finally global scale we compared mixtures of model parameterization schemes (original calibrated BROOK90, EXTRUSO and Global BROOK90) and meteorological datasets (local gauges, RaKlida and ERA5). Besides high model performances for a local dataset plus a calibrated model and weaker results for ERA5 and the Global BROOK90, it was found that the ERA5 dataset is still able to provide good results when combined with a regional and local parameterization. On the other side, the combination of a global parameterization with local and regional forcings gives still adequate, but much worse results. Furthermore, a hydrograph separation revealed that the Global BROOK90 parameterization as well as ERA5 discharge data perform weaker especially within low flow periods.</p><p>Currently, some new features are added to the original package. First, with the recent release of the ERA5 extension, historical simulations with the package now are expanded to 1950-2021 period. Additionally, an alternative climate reanalysis dataset is included in the framework (Merra-2, 0.5x0.625-degree spatial resolution, starting from 1980). A preliminary validation shows insignificant differences between both meteorological datasets with respect to the discharge based model performance.</p><p>Further upgrades of the framework will include the following core milestones: recognition of forecast and climate projections and parameter optimization features. In the nearest future we plan to utilize full power of the Climate Data Store for easy access to seasonal forecasts (i.e. ECMWF, DWD, NCEP) as well as climate projections (CMIP5) to extend the package’s scope to predict near and far future water balance components.</p>

scholarly journals Impact of Arable Land to Grassland Conversion on the Vegetation-period Water Balance of a Small Agricultural Catchment (Němčický Stream)

2010 ◽  
Vol 5 (No. 4) ◽  
pp. 128-138 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Kovář ◽  
D. Vaššová
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Surface Runoff ◽  
Arable Land ◽  
Vegetation Period ◽  
Water Balance Components ◽  
Total Runoff ◽  
Grassland Conversion ◽  
Pronounced Reduction

This paper presents results of decadal (10-day) water balance simulations for the vegetation periods (April to October) of 2001 (normal year), 2002 (wet year) and 2003 (dry year) in the Němčick&yacute; Stream experimental catchment (3.52 km<sup>2</sup>). The catchment is a typical agricultural area with a large extent of arable land. This paper shows that the model used (WBCM) is capable of reliably simulating decadal water balance components for the actual land use. The same model is then used to estimate water balance changes brought about when 10% of arable land has been transformed into permanent grassland. It is shown that this land use change results in a pronounced reduction of surface runoff and an increase in subsurface storage over the vegetation periods of all three years. The vegetation period groundwater runoff was only enhanced in the wet year, while the total runoff was reduced in all three years.&nbsp;

scholarly journals The Impact of Para Rubber Expansion on Streamflow and Other Water Balance Components of the Nam Loei River Basin, Thailand

Water ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 1 ◽  
Author(s):  
Winai Wangpimool ◽  
Kobkiat Pongput ◽  
Nipon Tangtham ◽  
Saowanee Prachansri ◽  
Philip Gassman
Keyword(s):  
Water Balance ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Water Balance Components ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals Forecasting land-use change and its impact on the groundwater system of the Kleine Nete catchment, Belgium

2007 ◽  
Vol 4 (6) ◽  
pp. 4265-4295 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Dams ◽  
S. T. Woldeamlak ◽  
O. Batelaan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Groundwater Level ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Groundwater Model ◽  
Water Balance Components ◽  
Groundwater System ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Land-use change and climate change, along with groundwater pumping are frequently indicated to be the main human-induced factors influencing the groundwater system. Up till now, research has mainly been focusing on the effect of the water quality of these human-induced changes on the groundwater system, often neglecting changes in quantity. The focus in this study is on the impact of land-use changes in the near future, from 2000 until 2020, on the groundwater quantity and the general hydrologic balance of a sub-catchment of the Kleine Nete, Belgium. This study tests a new methodology which involves coupling a land-use change model with a water balance model and a groundwater model. The future land-use is modelled with the CLUE-S model. Four scenarios (A1, A2, B1 and B2) based on the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) are used for the land-use modelling. Water balance components, groundwater level and baseflow are simulated using the WetSpass model in conjunction with a MODFLOW groundwater model. Results show that the average recharge slowly decreases for all scenarios, the decreases are 2.9, 1.6, 1.8 and 0.8% for respectively scenario A1, A2, B1 and B2. The predicted reduction in recharge results in a small decrease of the average groundwater level, ranging from 2.5 cm for scenario A1 to 0.9 cm for scenario B2, and a reduction of the total baseflow with maximum 2.3% and minimum 0.7% respectively for scenario A1 and B2. Although these average values do not indicate significant changes for the groundwater system, spatial analysis of the changes shows the changes are concentrated in the neighbourhood of the major cities in the study areas. It is therefore important for spatial managers to take the groundwater system into account for reducing the negative impacts of land-use and climate change as much as possible.

scholarly journals Water Balance Estimation Using Integrated GIS-Based WetSpass Model in the Birki Watershed, Eastern Tigray, Northern Ethiopia

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-17
Author(s):  
Esayas Meresa ◽  
Abbadi Girmay ◽  
Amare Gebremedhin
Keyword(s):  
Water Balance ◽  
Groundwater Recharge ◽  
Surface Runoff ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Mean Value ◽  
Mean Annual Precipitation ◽  
Northern Ethiopia ◽  
Water Balance Components ◽  
Wetspass Model

This study aims to estimate long-term average annual and seasonal water balance components for Birki watershed using WetSpass model with the integrated geospatial modeling approach with ten years’ hydro-meteorological and biophysical data of the watershed. Both primary and secondary data were collected using both field survey and disk-based data collection methods. The WetSpass model was used for data analysis purposes. The finding showed that in the summer season the annual groundwater recharge is 24.1 mm year-1 (96.5%), winter season mean groundwater recharge is 0.8 mm year-1 (3.5%) and yearly mean groundwater recharge is 24.9 mm year-1, Surface runoff yearly mean value is 40.6 mm year-1, Soil evaporation yearly mean value is 10.8 mm year-1, Evapotranspiration yearly mean value is 60.8 mm year-1, Intersection loss yearly mean value is 17 mm year-1, and Transpiration loss yearly value is 6.8 mm year-1 in the entire watershed. The mean annual precipitation, which is 573 mm, is contributed to 7.4%, 7.1% and 85.5% recharge to the groundwater, to surface runoff, and evapotranspiration, respectively. Annually 1.1205 million m3 water recharges into the groundwater table as recharge from the precipitation on the entire watershed. The contribution of this study could be used as baseline information for regional water resource experts, policy makers and researchers for further investigation. It can also be concluded that integrated WetSpass and GIS-based models are good indicators for estimating and understanding of water balance components in a given watershed to implement an integrated watershed management plan for sustainable utilization and sustainable development.

scholarly journals Exemplifying the Effects Using WetSpass Model Depicting the Landscape Modifications on Long-Term Surface and Subsurface Hydrological Water Balance in Bilate Basin, Ethiopia

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-20
Author(s):  
Abera Shigute Nannawo ◽  
Tarun Kumar Lohani ◽  
Abunu Atlabachew Eshete
Keyword(s):  
Water Balance ◽  
Surface Runoff ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Landsat Images ◽  
Water Balance Components ◽  
Wetspass Model ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Gis Software ◽  
Mean Square Errors

The alteration of spatial patterns of landscape interrupts water balance components in Bilate basin of Ethiopia. The aim is to characterize the spatio-temporal variation of surface-subsurface hydrological water balance using the WetSpass model comprising of soil type, topography, groundwater depth, and slope. Environment for Visualizing Images (ENVI) and Arc-GIS software were assimilated for the classification of Landsat images from 1989 to 2019 replicating the forest, shrub, and grasslands which decrease by 4.0%, 9.41%, and 14.87%, respectively, and agricultural land increasing by 27.06% from 1989 to 2019. The goodness of fit in surface runoff and subsurface flow for the two model outputs with the square of regression (R2) of 0.79 and 0.81, while the root mean square errors (RMSEs) 8.26 mm and 8.39 mm for 1989 and 2019, respectively, were calculated. Average annual interception, groundwater recharge, surface runoff, and actual-evapotranspiration were 36.4 mm, 127.34 mm, 614.95 mm, and 517.59 mm, respectively, revealing that WetSpass works remarkably in simulating the components of the hydrological water balance.

scholarly journals Methane chemistry in a nutshell – The new submodels CH4 (v1.0) and TRSYNC (v1.0) in MESSy (v2.54.0)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Franziska Winterstein ◽  
Patrick Jöckel
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapour ◽  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Optimization Techniques ◽  
Specific Humidity ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Sensitivity Studies ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Climate projections including chemical feedbacks rely on state-of-the-art chemistry-climate models (CCMs). Of particular importance is the role of methane (CH4) for the budget of stratospheric water vapor (SWV), which has an important climate impact. However, simulations with CCMs are, due to the large number of involved chemical species, computationally demanding, which limits the simulation of sensitivity studies. To allow for sensitivity studies and ensemble simulations with a reduced demand for computational resources, we introduce a simplified approach to simulate the core of methane chemistry in form of the new Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) submodel CH4. It involves an atmospheric chemistry mechanism reduced to the sink reactions of CH4 with predefined fields of the hydroxyl radical (OH), excited oxygen (O(1D)), and chlorine (Cl), as well as photolysis and the reaction products limited to water vapour (H2O). This chemical production of H2O is optionally feed back onto the specific humidity (q) of the connected General Circulation Model (GCM), to account for the impact onto SWV and its effect on radiation and stratospheric dynamics. The submodel CH4 is further capable of simulating the four most prevalent CH4 isotopologues for carbon and hydrogen (CH4 and CH3D as well as 12CH4 and 13CH4), respectively. Furthermore, the production of deuterated water vapour (HDO) is, similar to the production of H2O in the CH4 oxidation, optionally feed back to the isotopological hydrological cycle simulated by the submodel H2OISO, using the newly developed auxiliary submodel TRSYNC. Moreover, the simulation of a user defined number of diagnostic CH4 age- and emission classes is possible, which output can be used for offline inverse optimization techniques. The presented approach combines the most important chemical hydrological feedback including the isotopic signatures with the advantages concerning the computational simplicity of a GCM, in comparison to a full featured CCM.

scholarly journals Future Climate Change Impact on the Nyabugogo Catchment Water Balance in Rwanda

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (24) ◽  
pp. 3636
Author(s):  
Adeline Umugwaneza ◽  
Xi Chen ◽  
Tie Liu ◽  
Zhengyang Li ◽  
Solange Uwamahoro ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Surface Runoff ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Baseline Scenario ◽  
The Impact

Droughts and floods are common in tropical regions, including Rwanda, and are likely to be aggravated by climate change. Consequently, assessing the effects of climate change on hydrological systems has become critical. The goal of this study is to analyze the impact of climate change on the water balance in the Nyabugogo catchment by downscaling 10 global climate models (GCMs) from CMIP6 using the inverse distance weighting (IDW) method. To apply climate change signals under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) (low and high emission) scenarios, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used. For the baseline scenario, the period 1950–2014 was employed, whereas the periods 2020–2050 and 2050–2100 were used for future scenario analysis. The streamflow was projected to decrease by 7.2 and 3.49% under SSP126 in the 2020–2050 and 2050–2100 periods, respectively; under SSP585, it showed a 3.26% increase in 2020–2050 and a 4.53% decrease in 2050–2100. The average annual surface runoff was projected to decrease by 11.66 (4.40)% under SSP126 in the 2020–2050 (2050–2100) period, while an increase of 3.25% in 2020–2050 and a decline of 5.42% in 2050–2100 were expected under SSP585. Climate change is expected to have an impact on the components of the hydrological cycle (such as streamflow and surface runoff). This situation may, therefore, lead to an increase in water stress, calling for the integrated management of available water resources in order to match the increasing water demand in the study area. This study’s findings could be useful for the establishment of adaptation plans to climate change, managing water resources, and water engineering.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document