scholarly journals Risk-Based Decision-Making for Evacuation in Case of Imminent Threat of Flooding

Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 1429 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bas Kolen ◽  
P.H.A.J.M. van Gelder
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Cost Benefit Analysis ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Benefit Analysis ◽  
Costs And Benefits ◽  
Conditional Risk ◽  
Imminent Threat

It is important for decision-makers in emergency response situations to determine the scope, scale, timing, path and resettlement area of an evacuation decision when there is an imminent threat of flooding. In this paper, a method called the “Evacuation Diagram” is described to support risk-based evacuation planning and decision-making. In case of an imminent threat of flooding, we refer to the conditional risk, which is the risk given the forecasted water levels and potential consequences during the next days of the event. Given the threat and potential costs and benefits, evacuation decisions have to mitigate this conditional risk. Since evacuation can be costly, decision-makers have to make a trade-off between costs and benefits. In this research we present a method using a cost–benefit analysis approach, in which we adopt the “Dutch flood risk approach” to define the required strength of levees based on flood risk considerations. The “Evacuation Diagram” method is derived from analytical derivations, based on differential weighing of costs and benefits, which have an impact on a binary choice (or a set of discrete choices) as to whether to instruct an area to evacuate or not. Basically, this is an analysis of behavioural decision-making under risk, investigating how a cost–benefit analysis can yield higher cost effectiveness in risk reduction for human lives lost during possible evacuation incidents. The method is applied to a Dutch case study and the results are compared to the outcomes of the largest evacuation exercise ever held in the Netherlands, called ‘Waterproef’. It is concluded that the risk-based evacuation method, as presented in this paper, provides useful insight into collective and authoritative evacuation order decisions.

scholarly journals The Value of Citizen Science for Flood Risk Reduction: Cost-benefit Analysis of a Citizen Observatory in the Brenta-Bacchiglione Catchment

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michele Ferri ◽  
Uta Wehn ◽  
Linda See ◽  
Martina Monego ◽  
Steffen Fritz
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Citizen Science ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Cost Benefit Analysis ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Flood Risk Management ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Sensor Data ◽  
Benefit Analysis ◽  
Eu Directive

Abstract. Citizen observatories are a relatively recent form of citizen science. As part of the flood risk management strategy of the Brenta-Bacchiglione catchment, a citizen observatory for flood risk management has been proposed and is currently being implemented. Citizens are involved through monitoring water levels and obstructions and providing other relevant information through mobile apps, where the data are assimilated with other sensor data in a hydrological-hydraulic model used in early warning. A cost benefit analysis of the citizen observatory was undertaken to demonstrate the value of this approach in monetary terms. Although not yet fully operational, the citizen observatory is assumed to decrease the social vulnerability of the flood risk. By calculating the hazard, exposure and vulnerability of three flood scenarios (required for flood risk management planning by the EU Directive on Flood Risk Management) with and without the proposed citizen observatory, it is possible to evaluate the benefits in terms of the average annual avoided damage costs. Although currently a hypothetical exercise, the results showed a reduction in avoided damage of 45 % compared to a business as usual scenario. Thus, linking citizen science with hydrological modelling, and to raise awareness of flood hazards, has great potential in reducing future flood risk in the Brenta-Bacchiglione catchment. Moreover, such approaches are easily transferable to other catchments.

Cost-benefit analysis and the evaluation of psychiatric services

1977 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 701-707 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Goldberg ◽  
N. J. Glass
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Cost Benefit Analysis ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Psychiatric Services ◽  
Rational Decision ◽  
Benefit Analysis ◽  
Costs And Benefits ◽  
Rational Decision Making

SynopsisThe paper sets out a method for evaluating changes in psychiatric services in a cost-benefit framework. The first section of the paper analyses some of the problems which arise with those elements which can be measured in monetary terms – the ‘hard’ costs and benefits. The second section looks at a method of presenting the less tangible effects – the ‘soft’ costs and benefits. Finally, it is suggested how these can be brought together to aid rational decision-making.

scholarly journals The value of citizen science for flood risk reduction: cost–benefit analysis of a citizen observatory in the Brenta-Bacchiglione catchment

2020 ◽  
Vol 24 (12) ◽  
pp. 5781-5798
Author(s):  
Michele Ferri ◽  
Uta Wehn ◽  
Linda See ◽  
Martina Monego ◽  
Steffen Fritz
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Citizen Science ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Cost Benefit Analysis ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Flood Risk Management ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Sensor Data ◽  
Benefit Analysis ◽  
Eu Directive

Abstract. Citizen observatories are a relatively recent form of citizen science. As part of the flood risk management strategy of the Brenta-Bacchiglione catchment, a citizen observatory for flood risk management has been proposed and is currently being implemented. Citizens are involved through monitoring water levels and obstructions and providing other relevant information through mobile apps, where the data are assimilated with other sensor data in a hydrological–hydraulic model used in early warning. A cost–benefit analysis of the citizen observatory was undertaken to demonstrate the value of this approach in monetary terms. Although not yet fully operational, the citizen observatory is assumed to decrease the social vulnerability of the flood risk. By calculating the hazard, exposure and vulnerability of three flood scenarios (required for flood risk management planning by the EU Directive on Flood Risk Management) with and without the proposed citizen observatory, it is possible to evaluate the benefits in terms of the average annual avoided damage costs. Although currently a hypothetical exercise, the results showed a reduction in avoided damage of 45 % compared to a business as usual scenario. Thus, linking citizen science and citizen observatories with hydrological modelling to raise awareness of flood hazards and to facilitate two-way communication between citizens and local authorities has great potential in reducing future flood risk in the Brenta-Bacchiglione catchment. Moreover, such approaches are easily transferable to other catchments.

Risk Analysis within Feasibility Studies: An Application to Cost-Benefit Analysis for the Construction of a New Road

2014 ◽  
Vol 651-653 ◽  
pp. 1249-1254 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vincenzo del Giudice ◽  
Alfredo Passeri ◽  
Francesca Torrieri ◽  
Pierfrancesco de Paola
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Cost Benefit Analysis ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Interval Estimate ◽  
Benefit Analysis ◽  
Investment Appraisal ◽  
Multiple Variables

The present paper aims at testing new techniques of Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA), based on a Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS), to Cost-Benefit evaluation of transportation projects. Cost-Benefit analysis have been widely used for the evaluation of projects, especially in the phase of "feasibility study" in order to support decision makers in the choice between design alternatives compared to financial and socio economic performance indicators.However, the empirical experience has shown that investment appraisal can be affected by many elements of risk, due to system’s uncertainty and the multiplicity of interests involved [1,2] especially in a field such as the construction of a new road that will affect a community [3].Actually, the input and output variables of the model, can not always be determined with certainty by the analyst, but are influenced by elements of uncertainty due to numerous biases that "normally" connote a decision-making process in which multiple variables contribute to the formulation of the choice.QRA and MCS aims at quantify the uncertainty embedded in the appraisal model through a probabilistic approach, effectively accounts for every possible value that each variable within the model can take by use of various Probability Distribution Function (PDF). The resulting point estimate is then transformed into an interval estimate illustrated in terms of PDF.The proposed approach will be tested on an interesting case study regarding the economic evaluation of a new connection road in the Latium region of Italy. The results obtained shown that QRA and MCS can helps decision makers in taking more transparent and responsible behaviors in the decision making process.

scholarly journals The Value of Citizen Science for Flood Risk Reduction: Cost-benefit Analysis of a Citizen Observatory in the Brenta-Bacchiglione Catchment

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michele Ferri ◽  
Uta Wehn ◽  
Linda See ◽  
Steffen Fritz
Keyword(s):  
Risk Reduction ◽  
Citizen Science ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Cost Benefit Analysis ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Benefit Analysis ◽  
Costs And Benefits ◽  
Public Agencies ◽  
Flood Risk Reduction ◽  
Reduction Cost

Abstract. Citizen observatories are a relatively recent form of citizen science, which involve citizens in making environmental observations over a period of time. These observations can help to inform the decision making of local authorities and other stakeholders, creating a platform for two-way interaction between citizens and public agencies. Although citizen observatories can clearly generate many different benefits, they also have an associated cost. There are currently no examples of quantifying the costs and benefits of citizen observatories in the literature, yet this type of analysis is critical if there is to be real uptake of citizen observatories by public agencies more generally. This paper presents and applies a generic methodology for capturing the value of a citizen observatory for flood risk reduction in the Brenta-Bacchiglione catchment using a cost-benefit analysis. The results show that the benefits of implementing a citizen observatory approach outweigh the costs by approximately 2 to 1 and can reduce the annual expected damage to a greater degree than a much more costly structural approach.

Hostile Takeovers and Anti-takeover Defenses in the Russian Corporate Market

2007 ◽  
pp. 70-84 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Demidova
Keyword(s):  
Cost Benefit Analysis ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Benefit Analysis ◽  
Costs And Benefits ◽  
Hostile Takeovers ◽  
Russian Market ◽  
Takeover Defenses ◽  
The Cost ◽  
European Markets

This article analyzes definitions and the role of hostile takeovers at the Russian and European markets for corporate control. It develops the methodology of assessing the efficiency of anti-takeover defenses adapted to the conditions of the Russian market. The paper uses the cost-benefit analysis, where the costs and benefits of the pre-bid and post-bid defenses are compared.

scholarly journals A Methodological Framework for Sustainable Office Building Renovation Using Green Building Rating Systems and Cost-Benefit Analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (15) ◽  
pp. 6156
Author(s):  
Nataša Šuman ◽  
Mojca Marinič ◽  
Milan Kuhta
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Cost Benefit Analysis ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Green Building ◽  
Office Buildings ◽  
Office Building ◽  
Rating System ◽  
Benefit Analysis

Sustainable development is a priority for the future of our society. Sustainable development is of particular importance to the Architecture, Engineering, and Construction (AEC) industry, both for new buildings and for the renovation of existing buildings. Great potential for sustainable development lies in the renovation of existing office buildings. This paper introduces a new framework for identifying the best set of renovation strategies for existing office buildings. The framework applies selected green building rating system criteria and cost-effective sustainable renovation solutions based on cost-benefit analysis (CBA), and thus provides a novelty in decision-making support for the sustainable renovation of office buildings at an early-stage. The framework covers all necessary steps and activities including data collection, determination of the required level of renovation, selection of the green building rating system, identification of impact categories and criteria, and final evaluation and decision-making using CBA. The framework can be used in conjunction with different systems and according to different regional characteristics. The applicability of the addressing procedure is shown through a case study of a comprehensive renovation of an office building in the city of Maribor.

STAKEHOLDERS, SPATIAL LOCATIONS AND TIME HORIZONS IN AN EXTENDED SOCIAL COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS: A CASE OF PIPALPANKHA WATER RESOURCE PROJECT

2009 ◽  
Vol 11 (02) ◽  
pp. 245-265 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. RAM BABU ◽  
NALLATHIGA RAMAKRISHNA
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Water Resource ◽  
Social Cost ◽  
Cost Benefit Analysis ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Development Project ◽  
Development Projects ◽  
Benefit Analysis ◽  
Time Horizons ◽  
Spatial Locations

Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) has been serving as an important tool for decision making with regard to the development projects involving large investments. The Social Cost-Benefit Analysis (SCBA) is an extension of the CBA to certain social impacts, which hitherto were not measured. As the impacts of development projects on ecology and environment assumed importance, measuring the corresponding costs and benefits also began to assume significance. With the advancement in economic valuation techniques over time, measurement could be done and the framework of SCBA has been extended to incorporate the same. Moreover, unlike the CBAs, which do not account for the distributional aspects, the SCBA can potentially account for these. This paper presents a case study of extending the SCBA framework to include social and environmental impacts of a large water resource development project in India. It emphasises the distribution of project benefits and costs over stakeholders, spatial locations and time horizons so as to demonstrate the utility of extended SCBA in project decision making. It is observed that both the numeraire measure i.e. cost-benefit ratio, as well as the distributional analysis present a favourable case for the project.

scholarly journals THE COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS OF THE ROMANIAN NATIONAL GAMBLING OFFICE

2020 ◽  
Vol 13(62) (2) ◽  
pp. 157-166
Author(s):  
Ștefan Bulboacă ◽  
Ovidiu Mircea Țierean
Keyword(s):  
Cost Benefit Analysis ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Public Institution ◽  
Benefit Analysis ◽  
Costs And Benefits ◽  
Societal Costs ◽  
Gambling Industry ◽  
The Cost ◽  
The Way

"This paper aims to evaluate the economic effects that the Romanian National Gambling Office has over the gambling industry and to determine whether this public institution brings enough benefits to cover the costs. The aim of the research was to gather information about the Romanian gambling industry, the way that this industry is managed and to make a comparison between its societal costs and benefits. "

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