scholarly journals Complexity Analysis of Precipitation and Runoff Series Based on Approximate Entropy and Extreme-Point Symmetric Mode Decomposition

Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 1388 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dongyong Sun ◽  
Hongbo Zhang ◽  
Zhihui Guo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Correlation Coefficient ◽  
Extreme Point ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Approximate Entropy ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Symmetric Mode ◽  
Mode Decomposition ◽  
Different Time Scales ◽  
The Imf

Many regional hydrological regime changes are complex under the influences of climate change and human activities, which make it difficult to understand the regional or basin al hydrological status. To investigate the complexity of precipitation and the runoff time series from 1960 to 2012 in the Jing River Basin on different time scales, approximate entropy, a Bayesian approach and extreme-point symmetric mode decomposition were employed. The results show that the complexity of annual precipitation and runoff has decreased since the 1990sand that the change occurred in 1995. The Intrinsic Mode Function (IMF)-6 component decomposed by extreme-point symmetric mode decomposition of monthly precipitation and runoff was consistent with precipitation and runoff. The IMF-6 component of monthly precipitation closely followed the 10-year cycle of change, and it has an obvious correlation with sunspots. The correlation coefficient is 0.6, representing a positive correlation before 1995 and a negative correlation after 1995. However, the IMF-6 component of monthly runoff does not have a significant correlation with sunspots, and the correlation coefficient is only 0.41, which indicates that climate change is not the dominant factor of runoff change. Approximate entropy is an effective analytical method for complexity, and furthermore, it can be decomposed by extreme-point symmetric mode decomposition to obtain the physical process of the sequences at different time scales, which helps us to understand the background of climate change and human activity in the process of precipitation and runoff.

Time-scale dependence of climate-carbon cycle feedbacks for weak perturbations in CMIP5 models

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guilherme Torres Mendonça ◽  
Julia Pongratz ◽  
Christian Reick
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Global Carbon Cycle ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Global Carbon ◽  
Different Time Scales

<p>The increase in atmospheric CO2 driven by anthropogenic emissions is the main radiative forcing causing climate change. But this increase is not only a result from emissions, but also from changes in the global carbon cycle. These changes arise from feedbacks between climate and the carbon cycle that drive CO2 into or out of the atmosphere in addition to the emissions, thereby either accelerating or buffering climate change. Therefore, understanding the contribution of these feedbacks to the global response of the carbon cycle is crucial in advancing climate research. Currently, this contribution is quantified by the α-β-γ framework (Friedlingstein et al., 2003). But this quantification is only valid for a particular perturbation scenario and time period. In contrast, a recently proposed generalization (Rubino et al., 2016) of this framework for weak perturbations quantifies this contribution for all scenarios and at different time scales. </p><p>Thereby, this generalization provides a systematic framework to investigate the response of the global carbon cycle in terms of the climate-carbon cycle feedbacks. In the present work we employ this framework to study these feedbacks and the airborne fraction in different CMIP5 models. We demonstrate (1) that this generalization of the α-β-γ framework consistently describes the linear dynamics of the carbon cycle in the MPI-ESM; and (2) how by this framework the climate-carbon cycle feedbacks and airborne fraction are quantified at different time scales in CMIP5 models. Our analysis shows that, independently of the perturbation scenario, (1) the net climate-carbon cycle feedback is negative at all time scales; (2) the airborne fraction generally decreases for increasing time scales; and (3) the land biogeochemical feedback dominates the model spread in the airborne fraction at all time scales. This last result therefore emphasizes the need to improve our understanding of this particular feedback.</p><p><strong>References:</strong></p><p>P. Friedlingstein, J.-L. Dufresne, P. Cox, and P. Rayner. How positive is the feedback between climate change and the carbon cycle? Tellus B, 55(2):692–700, 2003.</p><p>M. Rubino, D. Etheridge, C. Trudinger, C. Allison, P. Rayner, I. Enting, R. Mulvaney, L. Steele, R. Langenfelds, W. Sturges, et al. Low atmospheric CO2 levels during the Little Ice Age due to cooling-induced terrestrial uptake. Nature Geoscience, 9(9):691–694, 2016.</p>

scholarly journals Total organic carbon sensitivity to climate change from Lake Qinghai sediments at different time scales

2019 ◽  
Vol 31 (5) ◽  
pp. 1468-1478
Author(s):  
ZHANG Yao ◽  
◽  
WU Duo ◽  
ZHANG Huan ◽  
ZHOU Aifeng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Organic Carbon ◽  
Total Organic Carbon ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Lake Qinghai ◽  
Different Time Scales

scholarly journals Seamless climate change projections and seasonal predictions for bushfires in Australia

2020 ◽  
Vol 70 (1) ◽  
pp. 120
Author(s):  
Andrew J. Dowdy
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Long Range ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Climate Change Projections ◽  
Different Time Scales

Spatio-temporal variations in fire weather conditions are presented based on various data sets, with consistent approaches applied to help enable seamless services over different time scales. Recent research on this is shown here, covering climate change projections for future years throughout this century, predictions at multi-week to seasonal lead times and historical climate records based on observations. Climate projections are presented based on extreme metrics with results shown for individual seasons. A seasonal prediction system for fire weather conditions is demonstrated here as a new capability development for Australia. To produce a more seamless set of predictions, the data sets are calibrated based on quantile-quantile matching for consistency with observations-based data sets, including to help provide details around extreme values for the model predictions (demonstrating the quantile matching for extremes method). Factors influencing the predictability of conditions are discussed, including pre-existing fuel moisture, large-scale modes of variability, sudden stratospheric warmings and climate trends. The extreme 2019–2020 summer fire season is discussed, with examples provided on how this suite of calibrated fire weather data sets was used, including long-range predictions several months ahead provided to fire agencies. These fire weather data sets are now available in a consistent form covering historical records back to 1950, long-range predictions out to several months ahead and future climate change projections throughout this century. A seamless service across different time scales is intended to enhance long-range planning capabilities and climate adaptation efforts, leading to enhanced resilience and disaster risk reduction in relation to natural hazards.

scholarly journals Regional and Seasonal Precipitation and Drought Trends in Ganga–Brahmaputra Basin

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (16) ◽  
pp. 2218
Author(s):  
Bikram Parajuli ◽  
Xiang Zhang ◽  
Sudip Deuja ◽  
Yingbing Liu
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Pattern ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Seasonal Precipitation ◽  
Precipitation Data ◽  
Rain Gauges ◽  
Geographical Regions ◽  
Brahmaputra Basin ◽  
Different Time Scales

Satellite-based precipitation products can be a better alternative of rain gauges for hydro-meteorological studies in data-poor regions. This study aimed to evaluate how regional and seasonal precipitation and drought patterns had changed in the Ganga–Brahmaputra Basin between 1983 and 2020 with PERSIANN-CDR precipitation data. The spatial pattern of winter drought, monsoon drought, and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) calculated for different time scales were evaluated using principal component analysis. Ganga–Brahmaputra is one of the most populated river basins that flows through different geographical regions. Rain gauges are heterogeneously distributed in the basin due to its complex orography, highlighting the significance of gridded precipitation products over gauge observations for climate studies. Annual and monthly precipitation trends between 1983 and 2020 were evaluated using the original and modified Mann–Kendall trend test, and annual precipitation in the basin was found to be declining at a rate of 5.8 mm/year. An increasing trend was observed in pre-monsoon rainfall, whereas precipitation exhibited a decreasing trend for other months. Results of the Pettitt test showed precipitation time series was inhomogeneous and changepoint occurred around 2000. Decreasing trends of SPI indicated increasing frequency and intensity of drought events. Winter drought showed a clear spatial pattern in the basin; however, SPIs calculated for different time scales and monsoon drought had complex spatial patterns. This study demonstrates the applicability of satellite-based PERSIANN-CDR precipitation data in climate research in the Ganga–Brahmaputra Basin.

Extraction of Bridge Frequencies Inclusive of the Higher Modes by the ESMD Using the Contact-Point Response

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (04) ◽  
pp. 2050045 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. B. Yang ◽  
F. Xiong ◽  
Z. L. Wang ◽  
H. Xu
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Point ◽  
Systematic Study ◽  
Contact Point ◽  
Effective Procedure ◽  
Symmetric Mode ◽  
University Campus ◽  
Intrinsic Mode Functions ◽  
Higher Modes ◽  
Mode Decomposition ◽  
Better Than

An effective procedure is proposed for extracting bridge frequencies including the higher modes using the vehicle collected data. This is enabled by the use of the contact-point response, rather than the vehicle response, for processing by the extreme-point symmetric mode decomposition (ESMD). The intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) so decomposed are then processed by the FFT to yield the bridge frequencies. A systematic study is conducted to compare the proposed procedure with existing ones, while assessing the effects of various parameters involved. The proposed procedure was verified in the field for a two-span bridge located at the Chongqing University campus. It was confirmed to perform better than the existing ones in extracting bridge frequencies inclusive of the higher modes. The following are the reasons: (1) the ESMD is more efficient than the EMD in that remarkably less IMFs are generated; (2) the modal aliasing problem is largely alleviated, which helps enhancing the visibility of bridge frequencies in general; and (3) the contact-point response adopted is free of the vehicle frequency, which makes the higher frequencies more outstanding and detectable.

Quantitatively assessing the impacts of climate variability and human activities on runoff

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yanhua Qin ◽  
Xun Sun ◽  
Baofu Li
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Hybrid Model ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Back Propagation ◽  
Impact Factors ◽  
Mode Decomposition ◽  
Runoff Change ◽  
Different Time Scales ◽  
Nonlinear Hybrid

<p>To quantitatively evaluate the impacts of climate variability and human activities on runoff at different time scales is a challenging task. In this study, a nonlinear hybrid model integrating extreme-point symmetric mode decomposition, back propagation artificial neural networks and weights connection method based on the physical nonlinear relationship between impact factors and runoff were developed to explore an approach for solving this problem. To validate the applicability of the nonlinear hybrid model, the Hotan River was employed to assess the impacts of climate variability and human activities on runoff. Results illustrated that a good performance was presented by this model. The contribution of the upper-air temperature at 500 hPa was the highest (70.5%), which is the most important factor for runoff change. At different time scales, this factor also has the highest contributions. However, the water vapor content was responsible for 22.0% of the runoff change. Furthermore, the human activities were only accounted for 7.5%, indicating that runoff in the Hotan River is more sensitive to climate variability than human activities.</p>

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document