scholarly journals A Hybrid Model for Annual Runoff Time Series Forecasting Using Elman Neural Network with Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition

Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 416 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xike Zhang ◽  
Qiuwen Zhang ◽  
Gui Zhang ◽  
Zhiping Nie ◽  
Zifan Gui
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Empirical Mode Decomposition ◽  
Hybrid Model ◽  
Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Time Series Forecasting ◽  
Elman Neural Network ◽  
Mode Decomposition

Application of MEEMD-ARIMA combining model for annual runoff prediction in the Lower Yellow River

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 865-876 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xianqi Zhang ◽  
Wei Tuo ◽  
Chao Song
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Empirical Mode Decomposition ◽  
Yellow River ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Lower Yellow River ◽  
The Lower Yellow River ◽  
Mode Decomposition ◽  
Runoff Prediction

Abstract The prediction of annual runoff in the Lower Yellow River can provide an important theoretical basis for effective reservoir management, flood control and disaster reduction, river and beach management, rational utilization of regional water and sediment resources. To solve this problem and improve the prediction accuracy, permutation entropy (PE) was used to extract the pseudo-components of modified ensemble empirical mode decomposition (MEEMD) to decompose time series to reduce the non-stationarity of time series. However, the pseudo-component was disordered and difficult to predict, therefore, the pseudo-component was decomposed by ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD). Then, intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and trend were predicted by autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) which has strong ability of approximation to stationary series. A new coupling model based on MEEMD-ARIMA was constructed and applied to runoff prediction in the Lower Yellow River. The results showed that the model had higher accuracy and was superior to the CEEMD-ARIMA model or EEMD-ARIMA model. Therefore, it can provide a new idea and method for annual runoff prediction.

scholarly journals El Niño Index Prediction Using Deep Learning with Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition

Symmetry ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 893
Author(s):  
Yanan Guo ◽  
Xiaoqun Cao ◽  
Bainian Liu ◽  
Kecheng Peng
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Empirical Mode Decomposition ◽  
Network Model ◽  
Neural Network Model ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition ◽  
Mode Decomposition ◽  
Reconstructed Time Series

El Niño is an important quasi-cyclical climate phenomenon that can have a significant impact on ecosystems and societies. Due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere and ocean systems, traditional methods (such as statistical methods) are difficult to provide accurate El Niño index predictions. The latest research shows that Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) is suitable for analyzing non-linear and non-stationary signal sequences, Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) is good at local feature extraction, and Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) can capture the overall information of the sequence. As a special RNN, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) has significant advantages in processing and predicting long, complex time series. In this paper, to predict the El Niño index more accurately, we propose a new hybrid neural network model, EEMD-CNN-LSTM, which combines EEMD, CNN, and LSTM. In this hybrid model, the original El Niño index sequence is first decomposed into several Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs) using the EEMD method. Next, we filter the IMFs by setting a threshold, and we use the filtered IMFs to reconstruct the new El Niño data. The reconstructed time series then serves as input data for CNN and LSTM. The above data preprocessing method, which first decomposes the time series and then reconstructs the time series, uses the idea of symmetry. With this symmetric operation, we extract valid information about the time series and then make predictions based on the reconstructed time series. To evaluate the performance of the EEMD-CNN-LSTM model, the proposed model is compared with four methods including the traditional statistical model, machine learning model, and other deep neural network models. The experimental results show that the prediction results of EEMD-CNN-LSTM are not only more accurate but also more stable and reliable than the general neural network model.

scholarly journals Sunspots Time-Series Prediction Based on Complementary Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition and Wavelet Neural Network

2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 ◽  
pp. 1-7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guohui Li ◽  
Siliang Wang
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Empirical Mode Decomposition ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition ◽  
Wavelet Neural Network ◽  
Hybrid Prediction ◽  
Mode Decomposition

The sunspot numbers are the major target which describes the solar activity level. Long-term prediction of sunspot activity is of great importance for aerospace, communication, disaster prevention, and so on. To improve the prediction accuracy of sunspot time series, the prediction model based on complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition (CEEMD) and wavelet neural network (WNN) is proposed. First, the sunspot time series are decomposed by CEEMD to obtain a set of intrinsic modal functions (IMFs). Then, the IMFs and residuals are reconstructed to obtain the training samples and the prediction samples, and these samples are trained and predicted by WNN. Finally, the reconstructed IMFs and residuals are the final prediction results. Five kinds of prediction models are compared, which are BP neural network prediction model, WNN prediction model, empirical mode decomposition and WNN hybrid prediction model, ensemble empirical mode decomposition and WNN hybrid prediction model, and the proposed method in this paper. The same sunspot time series are predicted with five kinds of prediction models. The experimental results show that the proposed model has better prediction accuracy and smaller error.

scholarly journals Analisis Kinerja Gabungan Metode Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition Dan Generalized Regression Neural Network

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 132
Author(s):  
Sri Herawati ◽  
M Latif
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Empirical Mode Decomposition ◽  
Learning Process ◽  
Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition ◽  
Generalized Regression Neural Network ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Mode Decomposition ◽  
Generalized Regression

Abstract—The method of time series suitable for use when it checks each data patterns systematically and has many variables, such as in the case of crude oil prices. One study that utilizes the methods of time series is the integration between Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) and neural network algorithms based on Polak-Ribiere Conjugate Gradient (PCG). However, PCG requires setting free parameters in the learning process. Meanwhile, the appropriate parameters are needed to get accurate forecasting results. This research proposes the integration between EEMD and Generalized Regression Neural Network (GRNN). GRNN has advantages, such as: does not require any parameter settings and a quick learning process. For the evaluation, the performance of the method EEMD-GRNN compared with GRNN. The experimental results showed that the method EEMD-GRNN produce better forecasting of GRNN. Keywords-Forecasting crude oil price; EEMD;GRNN.

scholarly journals Bearing Fault Classification Using Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition and Convolutional Neural Network

Electronics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 1248
Author(s):  
Rafia Nishat Toma ◽  
Cheol-Hong Kim ◽  
Jong-Myon Kim
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Convolutional Neural Network ◽  
Empirical Mode Decomposition ◽  
Vibration Signal ◽  
Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition ◽  
Fault Classification ◽  
Original Signal ◽  
Time Frequency ◽  
Mode Decomposition ◽  
Reconstructed Signal

Condition monitoring is used to track the unavoidable phases of rolling element bearings in an induction motor (IM) to ensure reliable operation in domestic and industrial machinery. The convolutional neural network (CNN) has been used as an effective tool to recognize and classify multiple rolling bearing faults in recent times. Due to the nonlinear and nonstationary nature of vibration signals, it is quite difficult to achieve high classification accuracy when directly using the original signal as the input of a convolution neural network. To evaluate the fault characteristics, ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) is implemented to decompose the signal into multiple intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) in this work. Then, based on the kurtosis value, insignificant IMFs are filtered out and the original signal is reconstructed with the rest of the IMFs so that the reconstructed signal contains the fault characteristics. After that, the 1-D reconstructed vibration signal is converted into a 2-D image using a continuous wavelet transform with information from the damage frequency band. This also transfers the signal into a time-frequency domain and reduces the nonstationary effects of the vibration signal. Finally, the generated images of various fault conditions, which possess a discriminative pattern relative to the types of faults, are used to train an appropriate CNN model. Additionally, with the reconstructed signal, two different methods are used to create an image to compare with our proposed image creation approach. The vibration signal is collected from a self-designed testbed containing multiple bearings of different fault conditions. Two other conventional CNN architectures are compared with our proposed model. Based on the results obtained, it can be concluded that the image generated with fault signatures not only accurately classifies multiple faults with CNN but can also be considered as a reliable and stable method for the diagnosis of fault bearings.

scholarly journals Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise with Convolution Based Gated Recurrent Neural Network: A New Deep Learning Model for South Asian High Intensity Forecasting

Symmetry ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 931
Author(s):  
Kecheng Peng ◽  
Xiaoqun Cao ◽  
Bainian Liu ◽  
Yanan Guo ◽  
Wenlong Tian
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Recurrent Neural Network ◽  
Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition ◽  
South Asian High ◽  
Mode Decomposition ◽  
Adaptive Noise ◽  
Deep Learning Model

The intensity variation of the South Asian high (SAH) plays an important role in the formation and extinction of many kinds of mesoscale systems, including tropical cyclones, southwest vortices in the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) region, and the precipitation in the whole Asia Europe region, and the SAH has a vortex symmetrical structure; its dynamic field also has the symmetry form. Not enough previous studies focus on the variation of SAH daily intensity. The purpose of this study is to establish a day-to-day prediction model of the SAH intensity, which can accurately predict not only the interannual variation but also the day-to-day variation of the SAH. Focusing on the summer period when the SAH is the strongest, this paper selects the geopotential height data between 1948 and 2020 from NCEP to construct the SAH intensity datasets. Compared with the classical deep learning methods of various kinds of efficient time series prediction model, we ultimately combine the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise (CEEMDAN) method, which has the ability to deal with the nonlinear and unstable single system, with the Permutation Entropy (PE) method, which can extract the SAH intensity feature of IMF decomposed by CEEMDAN, and the Convolution-based Gated Recurrent Neural Network (ConvGRU) model is used to train, test, and predict the intensity of the SAH. The prediction results show that the combination of CEEMDAN and ConvGRU can have a higher accuracy and more stable prediction ability than the traditional deep learning model. After removing the redundant features in the time series, the prediction accuracy of the SAH intensity is higher than that of the classical model, which proves that the method has good applicability for the prediction of nonlinear systems in the atmosphere.

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