scholarly journals Random Network Models to Predict the Long-Term Impact of HPV Vaccination on Genital Warts

Viruses ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (10) ◽  
pp. 300 ◽  
Author(s):  
Javier Díez-Domingo ◽  
Víctor Sánchez-Alonso ◽  
Rafael-J. Villanueva ◽  
Luis Acedo ◽  
José-Antonio Moraño ◽  
...  
Author(s):  
Javier Díez-Domingo ◽  
Víctor Sánchez-Alonso ◽  
Rafael-J. Villanueva ◽  
Luis Acedo ◽  
José-Antonio Moraño ◽  
...  

HPV vaccine induces a herd immunity effect in genital warts when a large number of the population is vaccinated. That aspect should be taken into account when devising new vaccine strategies, like vaccination at older ages or male vaccination. Therefore it is important to develop mathematical models with good predictive capacities. We devised a sexual contact network that was calibrated to simulate the Spanish epidemiology of different HPV genotypes. Through this model we simulated the scenario that occurred in Australia in 2007, where 12-13 year-old girls where vaccinated with a three-dose schedule of a vaccine containing genotypes 6 and 11, that protect against genital warts, and also a catch-up program in women up to 26 years of age. Vaccine coverage were 73 % in girls with three doses and with coverage rates decreasing with age until 52 % for 20-26 year-olds. A fast 59 % reduction in the genital warts diagnoses occurred in the model in the first years after the start of the program, similar to what was described in the literature.


2016 ◽  
Vol 30 (1) ◽  
pp. e12435 ◽  
Author(s):  
Filip Rob ◽  
Ruth Tachezy ◽  
Tomáš Pichlík ◽  
Lukáš Rob ◽  
Zuzana Kružicová ◽  
...  

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Agnieszka Denecke ◽  
Thomas Iftner ◽  
Angelika Iftner ◽  
Sebastian Riedle ◽  
Marion Ocak ◽  
...  

Abstract Background The introduction of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination has resulted in a remarkable decline of genital warts in women and men, but in Germany historical rates of vaccination are relatively low. We report long-term surveillance data on changes in HPV 6 and HPV 11 infection and the prevalence of genital warts in young women in the Wolfsburg HPV epidemiological study (WOLVES). Methods Women born in 1983/84, 1988/89, and 1993/94 participated in four cohorts between 2009/10 and 2014/15. Quadrivalent vaccination coverage and prevalence of HPV 6/11 infection and genital warts are reported for participants aged 19−22 years and 24−27 years at the time of sample collection. Statistical analyses were done to compare similarly aged participants using 2 x 2 contingency tables (Röhmel-Mansmann unconditional exact test; two-side alpha of 0.05). Results A total of 2,456 women were recruited. In 2010, vaccination rates were 40/659 (6.1%) in women aged 24−27 years and 142/600 (23.7%) in those aged 19−22 years; 5 years later, vaccination rates had increased to 135/733 (18.4%) and 177/368 (48.1%), respectively. Between 2010 and 2015, there was a statistically significant decrease in the prevalence of HPV 6 infection among women aged 24−27 years (2.12% versus 0%; P<0.0001) and women aged 19−22 years (2.0% versus 0%; P=0.0056). There was no significant decline in HPV 11 infection. In total, 52 of 2341 participants were diagnosed with genital warts. There was a statistically significant decrease in the life-time risk of developing genital warts in women aged 24−27 years between 2010 and 2015 (4.7% versus 1.68%, respectively; P=0.0018). The overall life-time risk of developing genital warts in women aged 19−27 years decreased from 3.1% in 2010 to 1.2% in 2015 (P=0.0022). Conclusions An increase in vaccination coverage was associated with a decreased prevalence of genital warts in young women. A protective effect greater than herd immunity alone was seen despite low vaccination rates. Quadrivalent vaccine had a protective effect on genital HPV 6 infection and an almost fully protective effect on the development of genital warts in the youngest population.


2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Agnieszka Denecke ◽  
Thomas Iftner ◽  
Angelika Iftner ◽  
Sebastian Riedle ◽  
Marion Ocak ◽  
...  

Abstract Background: The introduction of human papilloma virus (HPV) vaccination has resulted in a remarkable decline of genital warts in women and men, but in Germany historical rates of vaccination are relatively low. We report long-term surveillance data on changes in HPV 6 and 11 infection and the prevalence of genital warts in young women in the Wolfsburg HPV epidemiological study (WOLVES).Methods: Women born in 1983/84, 1988/89, and 1993/94 participated in four cohorts between 2009/10 and 2014/15. Vaccination coverage and prevalence of HPV 6/11 and genital warts are reported for participants aged 19−22 years and 24−27 years at the time of analysis. Statistical analyses were done to compare similarly aged participants using 2 x 2 contingency tables (Röhmel-Mansmann unconditional exact test; two-side alpha of 0.05).Results: A total of 2,456 women were recruited. In 2010, vaccination rates were 40/659 (6.1%) in women aged 24−27 years and 142/600 (23.7%) in those aged 19−22 years; 5 years later, vaccination rates had increased to 135/733 (18.4%) and 177/368 (48.1%), respectively. Between 2010 and 2015, there was a statistically significant decrease in the prevalence of HPV 6 among women aged 24−27 years (2.12% versus 0%; P<0.0001) and women aged 19−22 years (2.0% versus 0%; P=0.0056). In total, 52 of 2341 participants were diagnosed with genital warts. There was a statistically significant decrease in the life-time risk of developing genital warts in women aged 24−27 years between 2010 and 2015 (4.7% versus 1.68%, respectively; P=0.0018). The overall life-time risk of developing genital warts in women aged 19−27 years decreased from 3.1% in 2010 to 1.2% in 2015 (P=0.0022).Conclusions: An increase in vaccination coverage was associated with a decreased prevalence of genital warts in young women. A protective effect greater than herd immunity alone was seen despite low vaccination rates. Quadrivalent vaccine had a protective effect on genital HPV 6 positivity and a fully protective effect on the development of genital warts in the youngest population.


Author(s):  
Haluk Damgacioglu ◽  
Kalyani Sonawane ◽  
Jagpreet Chhatwal ◽  
David R. Lairson ◽  
Gary M. Clifford ◽  
...  

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Agnieszka Denecke ◽  
Thomas Iftner ◽  
Angelika Iftner ◽  
Sebastian Riedle ◽  
Marion Ocak ◽  
...  

Abstract Background: The introduction of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination has resulted in a remarkable decline of genital warts in women and men, but in Germany historical rates of vaccination are relatively low. We report long-term surveillance data on changes in HPV 6 and HPV 11 infection and the prevalence of genital warts in young women in the Wolfsburg HPV epidemiological study (WOLVES).Methods: Women born in 1983/84, 1988/89, and 1993/94 participated in four cohorts between 2009/10 and 2014/15. Quadrivalent vaccination coverage and prevalence of HPV 6/11 infection and genital warts are reported for participants aged 19−22 years and 24−27 years at the time of sample collection. Statistical analyses were done to compare similarly aged participants using 2 x 2 contingency tables (Röhmel-Mansmann unconditional exact test; two-side alpha of 0.05).Results: A total of 2,456 women were recruited. Between 2010 and 2015, there was a statistically significant decrease in the prevalence of HPV 6 infection among women aged 24−27 years (2.1% versus 0.0%; P<0.0001) and women aged 19−22 years (2.0% versus 0.0%; P=0.0056). There was no significant decline in HPV 11 infection. In total, 52 of 2,341 participants were diagnosed with genital warts. There was a statistically significant drop in the risk of developing genital warts in women aged 24−27 years between 2010 and 2015 (4.7% versus 1.7%, respectively; P=0.0018). The overall risk of developing genital warts in women aged 19−27 years decreased from 3.1% in 2010 to 1.2% in 2015 (P=0.0022).Conclusions: An increase in vaccination coverage was associated with a decreased prevalence of genital warts in young women. A protective effect greater than herd immunity alone was seen despite low vaccination rates. Quadrivalent vaccine had a protective effect on genital HPV 6 infection and an almost fully protective effect on the development of genital warts in the youngest population.


Author(s):  
S. R. Herd ◽  
P. Chaudhari

Electron diffraction and direct transmission have been used extensively to study the local atomic arrangement in amorphous solids and in particular Ge. Nearest neighbor distances had been calculated from E.D. profiles and the results have been interpreted in terms of the microcrystalline or the random network models. Direct transmission electron microscopy appears the most direct and accurate method to resolve this issue since the spacial resolution of the better instruments are of the order of 3Å. In particular the tilted beam interference method is used regularly to show fringes corresponding to 1.5 to 3Å lattice planes in crystals as resolution tests.


Crisis ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 36 (3) ◽  
pp. 220-224 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven Stack

Abstract. Background: There has been no systematic work on the short- or long-term impact of the installation of crisis phones on suicides from bridges. The present study addresses this issue. Method: Data refer to 219 suicides from 1954 through 2013 on the Skyway Bridge in St. Petersburg, Florida. Six crisis phones with signs were installed in July 1999. Results: In the first decade after installation, the phones were used by 27 suicidal persons and credited with preventing 26 or 2.6 suicides a year. However, the net suicide count increased from 48 in the 13 years before installation of phones to 106 the following 13 years or by 4.5 additional suicides/year (t =3.512, p < .001). Conclusion: Although the phones prevented some suicides, there was a net increase after installation. The findings are interpreted with reference to suggestion/contagion effects including the emergence of a controversial bridge suicide blog.


2009 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jenna L. Claes ◽  
Sean S. Hankins ◽  
J. K. Ford
Keyword(s):  

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