scholarly journals Effects of Mosquito Biology on Modeled Chikungunya Virus Invasion Potential in Florida

Viruses ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 830
Author(s):  
Cynthia C. Lord ◽  
L. Philip Lounibos ◽  
Joseph J. Pohedra ◽  
Barry W. Alto
Keyword(s):  
Chikungunya Virus ◽  
Deterministic Model ◽  
Mosquito Species ◽  
Latin Hypercube Sampling ◽  
Mean Annual Temperature ◽  
Central Temperature ◽  
Mosquito Mortality ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Mortality Function ◽  
Local Transmission

Arboviruses transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus have been introduced to Florida on many occasions. Infrequently, these introductions lead to sporadic local transmission and, more rarely, sustained local transmission. Both mosquito species are present in Florida, with spatio-temporal variation in population composition. We developed a two-vector compartmental, deterministic model to investigate factors influencing Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) establishment. The model includes a nonlinear, temperature-dependent mosquito mortality function based on minimum mortality in a central temperature region. Latin Hypercube sampling was used to generate parameter sets used to simulate transmission dynamics, following the introduction of one infected human. The analysis was repeated for three values of the mortality function central temperature. Mean annual temperature was consistently important in the likelihood of epidemics, and epidemics increased as the central temperature increased. Ae. albopictus recruitment was influential at the lowest central temperature while Ae. aegypti recruitment was influential at higher central temperatures. Our results indicate that the likelihood of CHIKV establishment may vary, but overall Florida is permissive for introductions. Model outcomes were sensitive to the specifics of mosquito mortality. Mosquito biology parameters are variable, and improved understanding of this variation will improve our ability to predict the outcome of introductions.

scholarly journals Effects of Mosquito Biology on Modeled Chikungunya Virus Invasion Potential in Florida

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cynthia C. Lord ◽  
L. Philip Lounibos ◽  
Joseph J. Pohedra ◽  
Barry W. Alto
Keyword(s):  
Chikungunya Virus ◽  
Deterministic Model ◽  
Mosquito Species ◽  
Latin Hypercube Sampling ◽  
Mean Annual Temperature ◽  
Central Temperature ◽  
Linear Temperature ◽  
Mosquito Mortality ◽  
Mortality Function ◽  
Local Transmission

: Arboviruses transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus have been introduced to Florida on many occasions. Infrequently, these introductions lead to sporadic local transmission and, more rarely, sustained local transmission. Both mosquito species are present in Florida, with spatio-temporal variation in population composition. We developed a 2-vector compartmental, deterministic model to investigate factors influencing Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) establishment. The model includes a non-linear, temperature-dependent mosquito mortality function based on minimum mortality in a central temperature region. Latin Hypercube sampling was used to generate parameter sets used to simulate transmission dynamics, following the introduction of one infected human. The analysis was repeated for 3 values of the mortality function central temperature. Mean annual temperature was consistently important in the likelihood of epidemics, and epidemics increased as the central temperature increased. Ae. albopictus recruitment was influential at the lowest central temperature while Ae. aegypti recruitment was influential at higher central temperatures. Our results indicate that the likelihood of CHIKV establishment may vary, but overall Florida is permissive for introductions. Model outcomes were sensitive to the specifics of mosquito mortality. Mosquito biology parameters are variable, and improved understanding of this variation will improve our ability to predict the outcome of introductions.

scholarly journals Transmission Potential of Zika Virus by Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) and Ae. mediovittatus (Diptera: Culicidae) Populations From Puerto Rico

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rebecca A Zimler ◽  
Donald A Yee ◽  
Barry W Alto
Keyword(s):  
Puerto Rico ◽  
Aedes Aegypti ◽  
Zika Virus ◽  
Mosquito Species ◽  
The United States ◽  
Infection Rates ◽  
Transmission Potential ◽  
Transmission Rates ◽  
Higher Doses ◽  
Local Transmission

Abstract Recurrence of local transmission of Zika virus in Puerto Rico is a major public health risk to the United States, where mosquitoes Aedes aegypti (Linnaeus) and Aedes mediovittatus (Coquillett) are abundant. To determine the extent to which Ae. mediovittatus are capable of transmitting Zika virus and the influence of viremia, we evaluated infection and transmission in Ae. mediovittatus and Ae. aegypti from Puerto Rico using serial dilutions of infectious blood. Higher doses of infectious blood resulted in greater infection rates in both mosquitoes. Aedes aegypti females were up to twice as susceptible to infection than Ae. mediovittatus, indicating a more effective midgut infection barrier in the latter mosquito species. Aedes aegypti exhibited higher disseminated infection (40–95%) than Ae. mediovittatus (<5%), suggesting a substantial midgut escape barrier in Ae. mediovittatus. For Ae. aegypti, transmission rates were low over a range of doses of Zika virus ingested, suggesting substantial salivary gland barriers.

scholarly journals Chikungunya: epidemiology

F1000Research ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. 82 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lyle R. Petersen ◽  
Ann M. Powers
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Aedes Aegypti ◽  
Aedes Albopictus ◽  
Chikungunya Virus ◽  
Mosquito Species ◽  
Febrile Illness ◽  
Current Understanding ◽  
Global Public Health ◽  
Temperate Climates

Chikungunya virus is a mosquito-borne alphavirus that causes fever and debilitating joint pains in humans. Joint pains may last months or years. It is vectored primarily by the tropical and sub-tropical mosquito, Aedes aegypti, but is also found to be transmitted by Aedes albopictus, a mosquito species that can also be found in more temperate climates. In recent years, the virus has risen from relative obscurity to become a global public health menace affecting millions of persons throughout the tropical and sub-tropical world and, as such, has also become a frequent cause of travel-associated febrile illness. In this review, we discuss our current understanding of the biological and sociological underpinnings of its emergence and its future global outlook.

scholarly journals Tropospheric temperature variation over India and links with the Indian summer monsoon : 1971-2000

MAUSAM ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 53 (3) ◽  
pp. 289-308
Author(s):  
D. R. KOTHAWALE ◽  
K. RUPA KUMAR
Keyword(s):  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Temporal Variations ◽  
Mean Annual Temperature ◽  
Tropospheric Temperature ◽  
Temperature Variations ◽  
Annual Cycles ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Spatio Temporal

In the context of the ever increasing interest in the regional aspects of global warming, understanding the spatio-temporal variations of tropospheric temperature over India is of great importance. The present study, based on the data from 19 well distributed radiosonde stations for the period 1971-2000, examines the seasonal and annual mean temperature variations at the surface and five selected upper levels, viz., 850, 700, 500, 200 and 150 hPa. An attempt has also been made to bring out the association between tropospheric temperature variations over India and the summer monsoon variability, including the role of its major teleconnection parameter, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO).   Seasonal and annual mean all-India temperature series are analyzed for surface and five tropospheric levels.  The mean annual cycles of temperature at different tropospheric levels indicate that the pre-monsoon season is slightly warmer than the monsoon season at the surface, 850 hPa and 150 hPa levels, while it is relatively cooler at all intermediate levels.  The mean annual temperature shows a warming of 0.18° C and 0.3° C per 10 years at the surface and 850 hPa, respectively.   Tropospheric temperature anomaly composites of excess (deficient) monsoon rainfall years show pronounced positive (negative) anomalies during the month of May, at all the levels.  The pre-monsoon pressure of Darwin has significant positive correlation with the monsoon temperature at the surface and 850 hPa.

scholarly journals Application and Comparison of Uncertainty Quantification Methods for Railway Vehicle Dynamics with Random Mechanical Parameters

Mechanika ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 25 (6) ◽  
pp. 455-462
Author(s):  
Dawei Zhang ◽  
Peijuan Xu ◽  
Daniele Bigoni
Keyword(s):  
Uncertainty Quantification ◽  
Vehicle Dynamics ◽  
Deterministic Model ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Latin Hypercube Sampling ◽  
Collocation Methods ◽  
Impact Behavior ◽  
Railway Vehicle ◽  
Parametric Uncertainties ◽  
The Impact

This paper aims to investigate uncertainties in railway vehicle suspension components and the implement of uncertainty quantification methods in railway vehicle dynamics. The sampling-based method represented by Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) and generalized polynomial chaos approaches including the stochastic Galerkin and Collocation methods (SGM and SCM) are employed to analyze the propagation of uncertainties from the parameters input in a vehicle-track mathematical model to the results of running dynamics. In order to illustrate the performance qualities of SGM, SCM and LHS, a stochastic wheel model with uncertainties of the stiffness and damping is firstly formulated to study the vertical displacement of wheel. Numerical results show that SCM, which can be easily implemented by means of the existing deterministic model, has explicit advantages over SGM and LHS in terms of the efficiency and accuracy. Furthermore, a simplified stochastic bogie model with three random suspension parameters is also established by means of SCM and LHS to analyze the critical speed, which is affected obviously by the parametric uncertainties. Finally, a stochastic vertical vehicle-track coupled model with parametric uncertainties is built comprehensively on the basis of SCM, by which the impact behavior of wheel-rail interaction under a rail defect is investigated and the dynamic response of vehicles under the track irregularity is explored in terms of the Sperling index. It concludes that the uncertainties of parameters have a significant influence on P2 force and Sperling index from the view of the running quality.

scholarly journals Unusual Presentation of Chikungunya Virus Infection With Concomintant Erysipelas in a Returning Traveler From the Caribbean: A Case Report

2014 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcos C. Schechter ◽  
Kimberly A. Workowski ◽  
Jessica K. Fairley
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Case Report ◽  
Virus Infection ◽  
Aedes Albopictus ◽  
Chikungunya Virus ◽  
Febrile Illness ◽  
Unusual Presentation ◽  
Chikungunya Fever ◽  
The Caribbean ◽  
Local Transmission

Abstract Chikungunya fever is a mosquito-borne febrile illness caused by Chikungunya virus (CHIKV), an alphavirus from the Togaviridae family. It is transmitted by primarily Aedes aegytpi and Aedes albopictus mosquitos [1]. Once of little importance in the Americas, local transmission was identified in the Caribbean in late 2013. More than 1000 travelers returning to the continental United States have been diagnosed with CHIKV. More importantly, there have been 9 documented cases of autochthonous disease in Florida as of September 16, 2014 [2].

scholarly journals Tracking progress towards malaria elimination in China: estimates of reproduction numbers and their spatiotemporal variation

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Isobel Routledge ◽  
Shengjie Lai ◽  
Katherine E Battle ◽  
Azra C Ghani ◽  
Manuel Gomez-Rodriguez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Yunnan Province ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Reproduction Numbers ◽  
Imported Cases ◽  
Geostatistical Models ◽  
Sources Of Infection ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Local Transmission

AbstractChina reported zero locally-acquired malaria cases in 2017 and 2018. Understanding the spatio-temporal pattern underlying this decline, especially the relationship between locally-acquired and imported cases, can inform efforts to maintain elimination and prevent re-emergence. This is particularly pertinent in Yunnan province, where the potential for local transmission is highest. Using a geo-located individual-level dataset of cases recorded in Yunnan province between 2011 and 2016, we jointly estimate the case reproduction number, Rc, and the number of unobserved sources of infection. We use these estimates within spatio-temporal geostatistical models to map how transmission varied over time and space, estimate the timeline to elimination and the risk of resurgence. Our estimates suggest that, maintaining current intervention efforts, Yunnan is unlikely to experience sustained local transmission up to 2020. However, even with a mean Rc of 0.005 projected for the year 2019, locally-acquired cases are possible due to high levels of importation.

scholarly journals Chikungunya: an emerging and spreading arthropod-borne viral disease.

2009 ◽  
Vol 3 (10) ◽  
pp. 744-752 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francesca Cavrini ◽  
Paolo Gaibani ◽  
Anna Maria Pierro ◽  
Giada Rossini ◽  
Maria Paola Landini ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Chikungunya Virus ◽  
Research Work ◽  
Viral Disease ◽  
La Réunion ◽  
Viremic Patient ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
Clinical Pictures ◽  
Local Transmission

The infection caused by the virus Chikungunya is known since the last 50 years, but since the disease was mainly diffuse in geographical areas located in developing countries, a few research work have been made available until the appearance of an important epidemiological outbreak in 2005 in the island of La Reunion, that is part of metropolitan France even if located in the Southern Eastern part of the Indian Ocean. In 2007, a smaller outbreak of Chikungunya developed in the Northern Eastern part of Italy, where the local transmission has been made possible by the enormous population of Aedes albopictus and the presence of a viremic patient coming from the Indian Ocean area. Nowadays, Chikungunya is spreading in Southeast Asia countries, including Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore. This paper reviews different aspects of the disease caused by Chikungunya virus, including: history, epidemiology, biological and pathogenetic aspects, clinical pictures, diagnosis and treatment.

scholarly journals Soil respiration at mean annual temperature predicts annual total across vegetation types and biomes

2009 ◽  
Vol 6 (6) ◽  
pp. 11501-11520
Author(s):  
M. Bahn ◽  
M. Reichstein ◽  
E. A. Davidson ◽  
J. Grünzweig ◽  
M. Jung ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Soil Respiration ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Terrestrial Ecosystems ◽  
Mean Annual Temperature ◽  
Wet Season ◽  
Seasonally Dry ◽  
Soil Co2 Emissions ◽  
Annual Total ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Tropical Climates

Abstract. Soil respiration (SR) constitutes the largest flux of CO2 from terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere. There still exist considerable uncertainties as to its actual magnitude, as well as its spatial and interannual variability. Based on a reanalysis and synthesis of 72 site-years for 58 forests, plantations, savannas, shrublands and grasslands from boreal to tropical climates we present evidence that total annual SR is closely related to SR at mean annual soil temperature (SR MAT), irrespective of the type of ecosystem and biome. This convergence is to be theoretically expected for non water-limited ecosystems within most of the globally occurring range of annual temperature variability and sensitivity (Q10). We further show that for seasonally dry sites where annual precipitation (P) is lower than potential evapotranspiration (PET), annual SR can be predicted from wet season SR MAT corrected for a factor related to P/PET. Our finding indicates that it is sufficient to measure SR MAT for obtaining a highly constrained estimate of its annual total. This should substantially increase our capacity for assessing the spatial distribution and interannual variation of soil CO2 emissions across ecosystems, landscapes and regions, and thereby contribute to improving the spatio-temporal resolution of a major component of the global carbon cycle.

scholarly journals Increased risk of chikungunya infection in travellers to Thailand during ongoing outbreak in tourist areas: cases imported to Europe and the Middle East, early 2019

2019 ◽  
Vol 24 (10) ◽  
Author(s):  
Emilie Javelle ◽  
Simin-Aysel Florescu ◽  
Hilmir Asgeirsson ◽  
Shilan Jmor ◽  
Gilles Eperon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
United Kingdom ◽  
Middle East ◽  
Virus Infection ◽  
Chikungunya Virus ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Local Transmission

We report nine travellers with confirmed chikungunya virus infection, returning from tourist areas of Thailand to Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, Romania, Israel and France, diagnosed in January and February 2019. These sentinel tourists support the intensification of chikungunya virus circulation in Thailand and highlight the potential for importation to areas at risk of local transmission.

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