scholarly journals Quantitative Risk Assessment in Construction Disputes Based on Machine Learning Tools

Symmetry ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 744
Author(s):  
Hubert Anysz ◽  
Magdalena Apollo ◽  
Beata Grzyl

A high monetary value of the construction projects is one of the reasons of frequent disputes between a general contractor (GC) and a client. A construction site is a unique, one-time, and single-product factory with many parties involved and dependent on each other. The organizational dependencies and their complexity make any fault or mistake propagate and influence the final result (delays, cost overruns). The constant will of the parties involved results in completing a construction object. The cost increase, over the expected level, may cause settlements between parties difficult and lead to disputes that often finish in a court. Such decision of taking a client to a court may influence the future relations with a client, the trademark of the GC, as well as, its finance. To ascertain the correctness of the decision of this kind, the machine learning tools as decision trees (DT) and artificial neural networks (ANN) are applied to predict the result of a dispute. The dataset of about 10 projects completed by an undisclosed contractor is analyzed. Based on that, a much bigger database is simulated for automated classifications onto the following two classes: a dispute won or lost. The accuracy of over 93% is achieved, and the reasoning based on results from DT and ANN is presented and analyzed. The novelty of the article is the usage of in-company data as the independent variables what makes the model tailored for a specific GC. Secondly, the calculation of the risk of wrong decisions based on machine learning tools predictions is introduced and discussed.

Author(s):  
Shumank Deep ◽  
Laura Simon ◽  
Mohd Asim ◽  
Ali Rahimzadeh ◽  
Sulala Al-Hamdani

Abstract Purpose: Recent studies show that lowest bidder tech­nique is mainly used in developing countries such as India to award a contract. It has been demonstrated that the lowest bid is not always the accurate one and can lead to cost overruns and time extensions amongst other prob­lems. The aim of this study was to investigate the critical factors impacting contractor’s efficiency in Indian con­struction projects. Research approach: A survey was sent to participants of construction projects awarded by the government with the lowest bidder technique in Uttar Pradesh, India. For further research, snowball sampling was used, and struc­tured interviews were conducted amongst experienced managers and engineers of these projects on both client’s and contractor’s side.Findings: It was observed that, to a greater extent, the delays were caused due to contractor’s opportunistic behaviour. The main findings are that new bidding meth­odologies are to be tested as they can lead to the choice of a more accurate and realistic bidder. In addition, subjec­tive evaluation components, such as schedule and work­force, should be reflected in contract award methods in addition to the cost criteria. Further studies should be per­formed on the choice of contract awarding methodology based on the project size and type. Originality value: The researcher’s focus was to analyze the influence of contracting methodologies and factors affecting contractor’s performance in lowest bid award project, where this is an area of least focus amongst researchers in the Indian subcontinent.


Construction is questionably a main part in relative to comprehensive development . It plays an important part in the role in the economy as and in people’s survives over influencing and preserving the environment of the city-region’s constructed, and it is a rising sector. To provide an efficient performance and more development of the economic, there is emphases on optimizing the employees contribution to the goals and areas of the governments. The training significance as a management central part has long been documented by principal writers.This paper aim to find the impact of training in the construction industry and how the training is been underestimate lead in increase the cost by using the simulation technique system dynamic. The research methodology include designing of questionnaire that consist of three items , the first item include , general Training (Training Program), evaluation of on-the-job training and evaluation of training after establishing work and the second part include building the model using system dynamic to show the effect of training on the cost of construction. the results the authors made the following conclusions .The absence of training program has very strong effect as the absence of such program is caused by the finance absence , this is common problem with Iraqi construction industry. The most environment of the Iraqi industry is the absence of the finance from both owner and contractor as they ignore this part and consider unnecessary expenses and this will lead to unqualified engineering or worker in the wrong job .The absence of management mean that , usually the contractor and his staff are working without the supervise or represented from the owner side , which some time mean unskilled workers may be hired which lead to delay of the work and cost overruns .


2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhang Wei

At the present stage, China's construction industry has achieved rapid development with the rapid development of our society and economy. In the construction of our country's construction industry, scientific and rational project construction management can not only effectively improve the safety quality of construction workers, strengthen the personnel management of construction workers, effectively reduce the accidents of construction projects, but also can save the cost of construction projects and improve the economic efficiency of construction enterprises to the greatest extent. In view of this, this paper first analyzes the existing problems in the management of industrial and civil construction site and puts forward corresponding solutions.


Author(s):  
Mohammed Algahtany

Public construction projects in Saudi Arabia have been suffering from low performance for the past decade. Cost overrun is one of the most important issues in project’s performance and is nearly associated with most of public projects. The aim of this study is to identify and assess the major factors leading to cost overruns in education construction projects in the Northern Province of Saudi Arabia to minimize the risks’ effects in future projects. The research methodology started by identifying cost overrun factors through literature review, project’s documentations, and experts’ interviews. Professionals who worked at the construction projects undertook a questionnaire survey to investigate the importance of the cost overrun factors. The top factors of cost overrun were identified through the analysis of the factors’ occurrence and severity. The study main results included the top causes of cost overrun which are delay in contractors’ progress payment by client, difficulties in financing project by contractor, delays in sub-contractor’s work, additions of quantities such as excavation, backfill, and concrete works, and bid award for lowest price. The investigated risks in the study should be evaluated and mitigated in future projects to minimize their effects and enhance the industry performance.


2000 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 73-83 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karla Knight ◽  
Aminah Robinson Fayek

An interview survey of Alberta-based construction contractors was conducted in July and August 1998. The purpose of this survey was to elicit information on the factors that cause unanticipated project cost escalation during construction, from the contractor's perspective. This paper presents the findings of this survey and a proposed method of modeling the factors identified. The majority of factors identified impact labour productivity, which is a major source of cost overruns. A combination of subjective, objective, and secondary indicators are used to measure these factors and to assess their impact on project performance. The main conclusion of this survey is that many of the factors affecting the cost of construction are evaluated in subjective and imprecise terms and are difficult to quantify. This paper presents a method of modeling these factors using fuzzy membership functions, which capture the imprecision and subjectivity associated with the measurement of these factors. It discusses a basis for the definition of these membership functions and a method of calibrating these functions to make them more widely applicable to suit different contexts. These membership functions are being incorporated in a set of expert rules, which reason about the factors affecting costs, their impact on the project, and the appropriate corrective actions. These expert rules are being developed as part of a fuzzy expert system for construction project monitoring and control. A method of calibrating membership functions to suit individual contexts is currently being developed, which would be a significant advancement in the area of fuzzy logic. Key words: construction, costs, expert systems, fuzzy logic, project control, survey.


2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 21
Author(s):  
Kleopatra Petroutsatou ◽  
Nikolaos Apostolidis ◽  
Athanasia Zarkada ◽  
Aneta Ntokou

The area of dynamic planning of construction sites is unexplored. Although there is a large amount of scientific interest in the literature in dynamic planning of construction site layouts, with different methodologies developed, studies on construction site relocation do not exist. The purpose of this study is to cover this gap in the literature and contribute to the body of knowledge by presenting for the first time a dynamic planning of a construction site and its importance in linear construction projects and to validate this methodology through real case studies. The decisive variables that determine the appropriate site locations and the costs that arise from these choices are analyzed. The choice that maximizes the production rate of the construction site and thus minimizes the costs is further investigated. An algorithm has also been developed that estimates the cost of transportation of the equipment used in the project and thus enables the investigation of the “ideal” location that minimizes this cost. The “ideal” site location is examined according to the time schedule of the project at time intervals that are determined by the work progress. The optimization algorithm aims to minimize the cost that derives from non-productive activities. The validity of the proposed model is tested in four motorway projects. A sensitivity analysis concerning different sequences in the construction methods reveals remarkable changes in cost fluctuations depending on project size. The outcomes show that for the second, third, and fourth projects, dynamic planning is demanded, and the profit gained ranges from 1 to 1.5% of total budget cost. Financing expenses could be covered by this profit. The case studies presented are derived from linear infrastructure projects that are more sensitive to this approach because of their size and their budget that both affect the results.


10.29007/vbwk ◽  
2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vajira Edirisinghe ◽  
Dianne Marsh ◽  
Fiona Borthwick ◽  
Alison Cotgrave

Disputes in construction projects affect not only delay in construction progress but also its cost and potentially its quality. The construction industry of Sri Lanka contributes significantly to its economy and the cost of construction disputes can influence its economic welfare. It is important to understand the significant disputes in the Sri Lankan construction industry in order to mitigate this cost. A qualitative descriptive study has been conducted through semi-structured questionnaires analyzed using a thematic approach. The sample comprised of 10-construction industry professionals all involved in the dispute resolution process. The literature identified 7 main dispute causes as being owner related, contractor related, project related, design related, contract related, human behavior related and consultant related. The interviews identified sub themes from each, which were then ranked in order to identify those that were most significant. It was found that many of the sub themes were inter related and that one cause could be the creation of another. The lack of appropriate communication between parties and lack of team spirit were identified as the genesis of disputes in the Sri Lankan construction industry. The next stage of this research is to identify the dispute resolution methods specific to Sri Lanka in order to develop a framework for cost optimization of dispute resolution methods that link specifically with the causes of dispute as identified in this study.


2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 288
Author(s):  
Mathieu Fokwa Soh ◽  
David Bigras ◽  
Daniel Barbeau ◽  
Sylvie Doré ◽  
Daniel Forgues

Integrating the knowledge and experience of fabrication during the design phase can help reduce the cost and duration of steel construction projects. Building Information Modeling (BIM) are technologies and processes that reduce the cost and duration of construction projects by integrating parametric digital models as support of information. These models can contain information about the performance of previous projects and allow a classification by linear regression of design criteria with a high impact on the duration of the fabrication. This paper proposes a quantitative approach that applies linear regressions on previous projects’ BIM models to identify some design rules and production improvement points. A case study applied on 55,444 BIM models of steel joists validates this approach. This case study shows that the camber, the weight of the structure, and its reinforced elements greatly influence the fabrication time of the joists. The approach developed in this article is a practical case where machine learning and BIM models are used rather than interviews with professionals to identify knowledge related to a given steel structure fabrication system.


2014 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 357-364
Author(s):  
Agnieszka Dziadosz ◽  
Oleg Kapliński ◽  
Mariusz Rejment

The Earned Value Method allows the prediction of future values of the total cost and duration of the construction project realization, and also it allows the early detection of the collisions between the schedule and the construction project budget. It is more often indicated its usefulness for monitoring and controlling the construction work progress in the time and cost formulation. It is used, in the indirect way, to control the risk in terms of the cost overruns of the construction project realization and in case of the failure to meet the deadline for completion of the construction project. The authors’ goal was not only to indicate the advantages of the method (widely discussed in the literature) but also to indicate some inaccuracies in the application of the Earned Value Method, which may affect the costs forecasting and the date of completion of the construction project. The conclusions are based on the analysis of several construction project realizations.


2021 ◽  
Vol 27 (2) ◽  
pp. 106-125
Author(s):  
Karukh Hassan Mohammad ◽  
Noori Sadiq Ali ◽  
Basira Majeed Najm

Variation orders are an on-going phenomenon in construction and industry projects worldwide, particularly in the province of Sulaimani, where the project's damage from cost and schedule overrun because of variation orders. However, the effect on project costs and time overrun of variation order has yet to be identified. This study evaluates the impact of variation orders on the cost and time off in the Sulaimani governorate. Two hundred twenty-eight projects from various construction sectors built between 2007-2012 were adopted to calculate the contract cost and schedule overruns due to variation orders. Data analysis was applied in the study were descriptive statistics. One-way ANOVA was also applied to determine whether the overrun of project cost and schedule significantly varied depending on project type, size, duration, location, and awarded years. The findings indicated that cost overruns are very common due to variation orders. 95.6% of the projects were studied being impacted, and overrun in project cost are also huge, with 16%. Time also overruns more common than cost overruns due to the variation orders. 98.7% of the projects were studied in Sulaimani were affected by time overrun with an average of 46.3% of initial duration observed. Findings also indicated that two out of five parameters measured in the analysis had a significant correlation with project cost overruns. Three out of five considered variables correlated with construction time overruns. 


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