scholarly journals An Integrated MCDM Approach to Train Derailment Risk Response Strategy Selection

Symmetry ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 47 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huafeng Zhang ◽  
Quanxin Sun
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Evaluation Criteria ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Response Strategy ◽  
Expert Advice ◽  
Rolling Stock ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Train Derailment ◽  
Risk Response ◽  
Risk Management Process

Train derailment can mainly cause not only economic losses in the shape of mangled rolling stock or infrastructure, but also more severely in causalities and disruptions of operations, yielding great impact on the sustainable development of railway industry. Considering various complex and symmetrical operational environments, as well as the characteristics of low frequency and high consequences of derailment accidents, risk response is undoubtedly underlined as one of the most critical components of risk management process. However, in practice, risk response does not receive enough attention in comparison with risk assessment that it lacks mature models and tools for selecting optimal strategy. This study constructs an integrated Multi Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) model for the selection of optimum train derailment risk response strategy for the first time. In the model, decision making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) technology is connected with analytical network process (ANP) to obtain evaluation criteria and their relative weights, and both of the two methods can deal with the complex coupling relationship between the indicators in the system. Then, technique for order performance by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) is proposed to screen the optimum plan in the proposed model. Further, the Delphi method is used through the whole process to acquire expert advice. In the end, this model is used to select shunting derailment risk response strategies in Huangyangcheng station, and the final results demonstrate that this technology is simple and practical, and can provide a credible and practical tool for railway safety managers and engineers to choose the best risk response strategy.

Book Review: A Guide to Decision Making in Student Affairs: A Case Study Approach

NASPA Journal ◽  
2000 ◽  
Vol 38 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tracy Davis
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Student Affairs ◽  
Student Affairs Professionals ◽  
Expert Advice ◽  
Background Information ◽  
Case Study Approach ◽  
New Professionals ◽  
Study Approach

Stanley Levy and Charles Kozoll capture much of the complexity of decisionmaking and offer an important contribution to our understanding of this perplexing topic. The publication of A Guide to Decision Making in Student Affairs: A Case Study Approach, furthermore, is timely due to what Stage (1993) recognizes as an increasing expectation that "new professionals, even at the lowest levels, have the ability to work independently and solve complex issues knowledgeably and with skill and integrity" (p. iii). The case study approach combined with the expert advice of 15 seasoned student affairs deans (called informants) provides a valuable resource for learning about a central task in our profession. The book offers students as well as experienced professionals background information critical to decisionmaking in higher education, exploration of fundamental issues that influence the process, carefully constructed and relevant case studies, and a reservoir of advice from some of the most well respected senior-level practitioners in our field. This book is particularly valuable to faculty members facilitating learning with new professionals, but it is a resource most student affairs professionals would find well worth owning.

scholarly journals Risk analysis and strategic planning on bridge construction works at the toll road procurement projects in Central Java Province

2018 ◽  
Vol 49 ◽  
pp. 02020
Author(s):  
Hery Suliantoro ◽  
Nurul Fitriani ◽  
Bagus Hario Setiadji
Keyword(s):  
Avoidance Response ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Construction Project ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Development Project ◽  
Response Strategy ◽  
Bridge Construction ◽  
Risk Response ◽  
Toll Road ◽  
The Impact

Risk is a condition caused by uncertainty. Risks will occur on any construction project, including bridge construction projects. Efforts that can be taken to minimize the impact of these risks are to engage in risk management activities. This research was conducted on bridge construction work on toll road procurement project in Pejagan-Pemalang, Pemalang-Batang and Salatiga-Kertasura. The purpose of this research is to analyze the risk of bridge development project in toll road project using Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS) method and then the result as database in discussing risk response strategy. The bridge construction project has 36 risks that are divided into six groups: materials and equipment, design, human resources, finance, management, nature and environmental conditions. Bad weather risks are the higest risk and seasonal risk causing temporary work stoppages. This risk-response strategy is avoidance. Short-term avoidance response strategy is to add shift workers, install tents and add additives in the acceleration of the process of maturation of concrete. The long-term avoidance response strategy is to evaluate and rearrange the work schedule by considering the weather forecast report.

DRUG EVALUATION AND DECISION MAKING IN CATALONIA: DEVELOPMENT AND VALIDATION OF A METHODOLOGICAL FRAMEWORK BASED ON MULTI-CRITERIA DECISION ANALYSIS (MCDA) FOR ORPHAN DRUGS

2017 ◽  
Vol 33 (1) ◽  
pp. 111-120 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antoni Gilabert-Perramon ◽  
Josep Torrent-Farnell ◽  
Arancha Catalan ◽  
Alba Prat ◽  
Manel Fontanet ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Analysis ◽  
Unmet Needs ◽  
Drug Evaluation ◽  
Evaluation Criteria ◽  
Orphan Drugs ◽  
Methodological Framework ◽  
Multi Criteria Decision Analysis ◽  
Development And Validation ◽  
Weighting Technique

Objectives:The aim of this study was to adapt and assess the value of a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) framework (EVIDEM) for the evaluation of Orphan drugs in Catalonia (Catalan Health Service).Methods:The standard evaluation and decision-making procedures of CatSalut were compared with the EVIDEM methodology and contents. The EVIDEM framework was adapted to the Catalan context, focusing on the evaluation of Orphan drugs (PASFTAC program), during a Workshop with sixteen PASFTAC members. The criteria weighting was done using two different techniques (nonhierarchical and hierarchical). Reliability was assessed by re-test.Results:The EVIDEM framework and methodology was found useful and feasible for Orphan drugs evaluation and decision making in Catalonia. All the criteria considered for the development of the CatSalut Technical Reports and decision making were considered in the framework. Nevertheless, the framework could improve the reporting of some of these criteria (i.e., “unmet needs” or “nonmedical costs”). Some Contextual criteria were removed (i.e., “Mandate and scope of healthcare system”, “Environmental impact”) or adapted (“population priorities and access”) for CatSalut purposes. Independently of the weighting technique considered, the most important evaluation criteria identified for orphan drugs were: “disease severity”, “unmet needs” and “comparative effectiveness”, while the “size of the population” had the lowest relevance for decision making. Test–retest analysis showed weight consistency among techniques, supporting reliability overtime.Conclusions:MCDA (EVIDEM framework) could be a useful tool to complement the current evaluation methods of CatSalut, contributing to standardization and pragmatism, providing a method to tackle ethical dilemmas and facilitating discussions related to decision making.

Pairwise Elicitation for a Decision Support Framework to Develop a Flood Risk Response Plan

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
MiguelAndres Guerra ◽  
Yekenalem Abebe
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Addis Ababa ◽  
Pairwise Comparison ◽  
Multicriteria Decision Making ◽  
Risk Response ◽  
Hazard And Risk ◽  
Response Plan ◽  
Decision Making Framework

There are several ways of quantifying flood hazard. When the scale of the analysis is large, flood hazard simulation for an entire city becomes costly and complicated. The first part of this paper proposes utilizing experience and knowledge of local experts about flood characteristics in the area in order to come up with a first-level flood hazard and risk zoning maps, by implementing overlay operations in Arc GIS. In this step, the authors use the concept of pairwise comparison to eliminate the need for carrying out a complicated simulation to quantify flood hazard and risk. The process begins with identifying the main factors that contribute to flooding in a particular area. Pairwise comparison was used to elicit knowledge from local experts and assigned weights for each factor to reflect their relative importance toward flood hazard and risk. In the second part of this paper, the authors present a decision-making framework to support a flood risk response plan. Once the highest risk zones have been identified, a city can develop a risk response plan, for which this paper presents a decision-making framework to select an effective set of alternatives. The framework integrates tools from multicriteria decision-making, charrette design process to guide the pairwise elicitation, and a cost-effective analysis to include the limited budget constraint for any city. The theoretical framework uses the city of Addis Ababa for the first part of the paper. For the second part, the paper utilizes a hypothetical case of Addis Ababa and a mock city infrastructure department to illustrate the implementation of the framework.

scholarly journals Hierarchical decision processes that operate over distinct timescales underlie choice and changes in strategy

2016 ◽  
Vol 113 (31) ◽  
pp. E4531-E4540 ◽  
Author(s):  
Braden A. Purcell ◽  
Roozbeh Kiani
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Neural Mechanism ◽  
Decision Processes ◽  
Response Strategy ◽  
Limited Information ◽  
Decision Strategy ◽  
Stimulus Response ◽  
Hierarchical Decision ◽  
The Right ◽  
High Level

Decision-making in a natural environment depends on a hierarchy of interacting decision processes. A high-level strategy guides ongoing choices, and the outcomes of those choices determine whether or not the strategy should change. When the right decision strategy is uncertain, as in most natural settings, feedback becomes ambiguous because negative outcomes may be due to limited information or bad strategy. Disambiguating the cause of feedback requires active inference and is key to updating the strategy. We hypothesize that the expected accuracy of a choice plays a crucial rule in this inference, and setting the strategy depends on integration of outcome and expectations across choices. We test this hypothesis with a task in which subjects report the net direction of random dot kinematograms with varying difficulty while the correct stimulus−response association undergoes invisible and unpredictable switches every few trials. We show that subjects treat negative feedback as evidence for a switch but weigh it with their expected accuracy. Subjects accumulate switch evidence (in units of log-likelihood ratio) across trials and update their response strategy when accumulated evidence reaches a bound. A computational framework based on these principles quantitatively explains all aspects of the behavior, providing a plausible neural mechanism for the implementation of hierarchical multiscale decision processes. We suggest that a similar neural computation—bounded accumulation of evidence—underlies both the choice and switches in the strategy that govern the choice, and that expected accuracy of a choice represents a key link between the levels of the decision-making hierarchy.

scholarly journals An Emergency Decision-Making Method for Urban Rainstorm Water-Logging: A China Study

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 3453 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiyong Ding ◽  
Juefang Cai ◽  
Guangxiang Guo ◽  
Chen Chen
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Bayesian Analysis ◽  
Emergency Management ◽  
Utility Theory ◽  
Urban Traffic ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Water Logging ◽  
Multi Attribute Utility Theory ◽  
Emergency Decision Making ◽  
Emergency Decision

With the rapid development of the urbanization process, rainstorm water-logging events occur more frequently in big cities in China, which causes great impact on urban traffic safety and brings about severe economic losses. Water-logging has become a hot issue of widespread concern in China. As one kind of natural disasters and emergencies, rainstorm water-logging has the uncertainties of occurrence, development, and evolution. Thus, the emergency decision-making in rainstorm water-logging should be carried out in stages according to its development trend, which is very complicated. In this paper, an emergency decision-making method was proposed for urban water-logging with a hybrid use of dynamic network game technology, Bayesian analysis, and multi-attribute utility theory. The dynamic game process between “rainstorm water-logging” and “decision-making group” was established and the dynamic generation of emergency schemes was analyzed based on Bayesian analysis in various stages of water-logging. In terms of decision-making attributes, this paper mainly considered two goals, i.e., ensuring smooth traffic and controlling emergency cost. The multi-attribute utility theory was used to select the final scheme. An example analysis in Guangzhou of China showed that the method is more targeted and can achieve emergency management objectives more effectively when compared with traditional methods. Therefore, it can provide reference for the scientific decision-making of emergency management in urban rainstorm water-logging.

scholarly journals Model for making decisions on renewal the railway rolling stock of a transport organization

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 76-87
Author(s):  
Elena S. Palkina
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Capital Investment ◽  
Graphical Model ◽  
Financial Analysis ◽  
Objective Assessment ◽  
Rolling Stock ◽  
Leading Position ◽  
Forecast State ◽  
Decision Making Model ◽  
Railway Rolling Stock

Background: At present, there is an urgent problem of renovation of rolling stock characterized by a high degree in Russia. The leading position in the country's transport system belongs to railway transport. In the context of declining demand for transportation investments in railcars, which represent a significant amount of capital investment, require reasonable management decisions. Aim: is to work out a decision-making model for renewal the transport organization's railway rolling stock. Methods: of technical, economic, investment and financial analysis, decision tree, graphical modeling, system approach. Results: The basic components of the decision-making model are determined. The key indicators of railway rolling stock renewal are defined, reflecting the criteria for making managerial decisions in the field of operational, investment and financial activities. A graphical model is proposed that interprets the decision support system for purchasing new railcars. Conclusion: Using the proposed model of decision-making in the field of renovation of rolling stock allows to transfer this process to a qualitatively new level, based on the results of an objective assessment of the current and forecast state of the management object according to various alternative scenarios and based on the selection of the rational decision by comparing the expected results for each of the considered alternatives and analysis degree of their compliance with the determined goals due to its versatility and complexity.

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