scholarly journals The Impact of Direct and Indirect COVID-19 Related Demand Shocks on Sectoral CO2 Emissions: Evidence from Major Asia Pacific Countries

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (16) ◽  
pp. 9312 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Jawad Sajid ◽  
Ernesto D. R. Santibanez Gonzalez
Keyword(s):  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Extraction Methods ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
Emissions Reduction ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Demand Shocks ◽  
The Impact

COVID-19’s demand shocks have a significant impact on global CO2 emissions. However, few studies have estimated the impact of COVID-19’s direct and indirect demand shocks on sectoral CO2 emissions and linkages. This study’s goal is to estimate the impact of COVID-19’s direct and indirect demand shocks on the CO2 emissions of the Asia-Pacific countries of Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia, and Pakistan (BCIIP). The study, based on the Asian Development Bank’s COVID-19 economic impact scenarios, estimated the impact of direct and indirect demand shocks on CO2 releases using input–output and hypothetical extraction methods. In the no COVID-19 scenario, China emitted the most CO2 (11 billion tons (Bt)), followed by India (2 Bt), Indonesia (0.5 Bt), Pakistan (0.2 Bt), and Bangladesh (0.08 Bt). For BCIIP nations, total demand shocks forced a 1–2% reduction in CO2 emissions under a worst-case scenario. Given BCIIP’s current economic recovery, a best or moderate scenario with a negative impact of less than 1% is more likely in coming years. Direct demand shocks, with a negative 85–63% share, caused most of the CO2 emissions decrease. The downstream indirect demand had only a 15–37% contribution to CO2 emissions reduction. Our study also discusses policy implications.

The Impact of the Business Environment on the Formalization of Informal Firms. The Case of Kosovo

Südosteuropa ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 68 (4) ◽  
pp. 505-529
Author(s):  
Kujtim Zylfijaj ◽  
Dimitar Nikoloski ◽  
Nadine Tournois
Keyword(s):  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
Positive Influence ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Tax Reforms ◽  
Firm Level ◽  
Characteristics Analysis ◽  
Significant Negative Impact ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe research presented here investigates the impact of the business environment on the formalization of informal firms, using firm-level data for 243 informal firms in Kosovo. The findings indicate that business-environment variables such as limited access to financing, the cost of financing, the unavailability of subsidies, tax rates, and corruption have a significant negative impact on the formalization of informal firms. In addition, firm-level characteristics analysis suggests that the age of the firm also exercises a significant negative impact, whereas sales volume exerts a significant positive impact on the formalization of informal firms. These findings have important policy implications and suggest that the abolition of barriers preventing access to financing, as well as tax reforms and a consistent struggle against corruption may have a positive influence on the formalization of informal firms. On the other hand, firm owners should consider formalization to be a means to help them have greater opportunities for survival and growth.

The Psychological and Financial Impact of Cybercrime Victimization: A Novel Application of the Shattered Assumptions Theory

2021 ◽  
pp. 089443932098382
Author(s):  
Jildau Borwell ◽  
Jurjen Jansen ◽  
Wouter Stol
Keyword(s):  
Negative Impact ◽  
Secondary Analysis ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Financial Impact ◽  
Financial Loss ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Loss Compensation ◽  
Shattered Assumptions ◽  
The Impact

While criminality is digitizing, a theory-based understanding of the impact of cybercrime on victims is lacking. Therefore, this study addresses the psychological and financial impact of cybercrime on victims, applying the shattered assumptions theory (SAT) to predict that impact. A secondary analysis was performed on a representative data set of Dutch citizens ( N = 33,702), exploring the psychological and financial impact for different groups of cybercrime victims. The results showed a higher negative impact on emotional well-being for victims of person-centered cybercrime, victims for whom the offender was an acquaintance, and victims whose financial loss was not compensated and a lower negative impact on emotional well-being for victims with a higher income. The study led to novel scientific insights and showed the applicability of the SAT for developing hypotheses about cybercrime victimization impact. In this study, most hypotheses had to be rejected, leading to the conclusion that more work has to be done to test the applicability of the SAT in the field of cybercrime. Furthermore, policy implications were identified considering the prioritization of and approach to specific cybercrimes, treatment of victims, and financial loss compensation.

scholarly journals Analyzing the Renewable Energy and CO2 Emission Levels Nexus at an EU Level: A Panel Data Regression Approach

Processes ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 130
Author(s):  
Mihail Busu ◽  
Alexandra Catalina Nedelcu
Keyword(s):  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Co2 Emission ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
National Level ◽  
Renewable Energy Consumption ◽  
Urbanization Level ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Co2 ◽  
The Impact

In the past decades, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions have become an important issue for many researchers and policy makers. The focus of scientists and experts in the area is mainly on lowering the CO2 emission levels. In this article, panel data is analyzed with an econometric model, to estimate the impact of renewable energy, biofuels, bioenergy efficiency, population, and urbanization level on CO2 emissions in European Union (EU) countries. Our results underline the fact that urbanization level has a negative impact on increasing CO2 emissions, while biofuels, bioenergy production, and renewable energy consumption have positive and direct impacts on reducing CO2 emissions. Moreover, population growth and urbanization level are negatively correlated with CO2 emission levels. The authors’ findings suggest that the public policies at the national level must encourage the consumption of renewable energy and biofuels in the EU, while population and urbanization level should come along with more restrictions on CO2 emissions.

Fiscal Deficit and Economic Growth in Bangladesh

2016 ◽  
Vol 62 (1) ◽  
pp. 31-42 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ebney Ayaj Rana ◽  
Abu N. M. Wahid
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Government Budget ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Government Budget Deficit

The economy of Bangladesh is currently going through a period of continuous budget deficit. The present data suggest that the government budget deficit, on average, is nearly 5% of the country’s GDP. This has been true since the early 2000s. To finance this deficit, governments have been borrowing largely from domestic and foreign sources resulting in inflationary pressure on one hand, and crowding out of private investments on the other. During the same period, although the economy has grown steadily at a rate of more than 6%, this growth is less than the potential. This article presents an econometric study of the impact of government budget deficits on the economic growth of Bangladesh. We conduct a time-series analysis using ordinary least squares estimation, vector error correction model, and granger causality test. The findings suggest that the government budget deficit has statistically significant negative impact on economic growth in Bangladesh. Policy implications of our findings include reestablishing the rule of law, political stability in the country, restructuring tax structure, closing tax loopholes, and harmonizing fiscal policy with monetary policy to attract additional domestic and foreign investment.

scholarly journals SPATIOTEMPORAL VISUALIZATION OF TSUNAMI WAVES USING KML ON GOOGLE EARTH

2017 ◽  
Vol XLII-2/W7 ◽  
pp. 1291-1299 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Mohammadi ◽  
M. R. Delavar ◽  
M. A. Sharifi ◽  
M. D. Pirooz
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Disaster Management ◽  
Google Earth ◽  
Disaster Mitigation ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Tsunami Waves ◽  
Spatiotemporal Visualization ◽  
Virtual Globes ◽  
The Impact

Disaster risk is a function of hazard and vulnerability. Risk is defined as the expected losses, including lives, personal injuries, property damages, and economic disruptions, due to a particular hazard for a given area and time period. Risk assessment is one of the key elements of a natural disaster management strategy as it allows for better disaster mitigation and preparation. It provides input for informed decision making, and increases risk awareness among decision makers and other stakeholders. Virtual globes such as Google Earth can be used as a visualization tool. Proper spatiotemporal graphical representations of the concerned risk significantly reduces the amount of effort to visualize the impact of the risk and improves the efficiency of the decision-making process to mitigate the impact of the risk. The spatiotemporal visualization of tsunami waves for disaster management process is an attractive topic in geosciences to assist investigation of areas at tsunami risk. In this paper, a method for coupling virtual globes with tsunami wave arrival time models is presented. In this process we have shown 2D+Time of tsunami waves for propagation and inundation of tsunami waves, both coastal line deformation, and the flooded areas. In addition, the worst case scenario of tsunami on Chabahar port derived from tsunami modelling is also presented using KML on google earth.

A Case Study - Life Extension of Offshore Bridge Bearings

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmed Abdelkhalek ◽  
Govindavilas Sudhesh ◽  
Anjan Sarkar ◽  
Mohammed Eissa
Keyword(s):  
Cost Savings ◽  
Holistic Approach ◽  
Life Extension ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Maintenance And Repair ◽  
Seasonal Monitoring ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Bridge Bearings

Abstract Structural bearings of 47 offshore platform-link bridges with average age of 40 years were inspected and recommended for replacements due to their poor condition. Replacement of bridge bearings involves major risk and production interruptions given the structural modifications, and critical piping and E&I disconnections required for safe jacking-lifting activities required during the process. This paper presents the approach adopted to assure the integrity of the bridges and extend their lives without the need to replace the bearings. The approach employed failure mode and effect analysis to identifying and narrowing down areas that need focused efforts while tackling the problem. Scenario based structural assessments were carried out to examine the impact of the level of movement-allowing bearings functionality on the integrity of the bridge and its supporting structures; identify critical locations to be targeted during focused inspections; and establish envelopes for monitoring thermal expansion and contraction of the bridges. Guidelines were developed and implemented for integrated inspection-maintenance and repair campaign, which aimed to tackle corrosion issues and to install movement-monitoring indicators. Indicator seasonal monitoring is employed to establish the functionality of bearings on the long-term. The what-if structural assessments revealed that even in the worst-case scenario (in which the bearing are completely jammed) the option of local strengthening of the bridge and its supporting elements is more attractive than bearing replacement. The integrated inspection-maintenance and repair campaigns revealed that excessive corrosion levels observed from historic visual inspections on external non-critical bearing components (e.g: guide plates, angles, etc.) is not indicative of the condition of the internal load-bearing components (pedestals) which experienced much lower corrosion levels. The seasonal monitoring of bridge movements revealed that the 40+ years old Teflon pads are still functional and allow the bridges expansion and contraction. The developed holistic approach enabled demonstration of the fitness for service of the bearings, and provided means for assuring their long-term performance through monitoring. The results assured safety, integrity and delivered significant cost savings through aversion brownfield modifications, and production loss associated with bridge jacking and bearing replacement operations.

scholarly journals Imported dengue in Spain: a nationwide analysis with predictive time series analyses

2019 ◽  
Vol 26 (8) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lidia Redondo-Bravo ◽  
Claudia Ruiz-Huerta ◽  
Diana Gomez-Barroso ◽  
María José Sierra-Moros ◽  
Agustín Benito ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Severe Dengue ◽  
Vector Surveillance ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Temporal Behaviour ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Local Transmission

Abstract Background Of febrile illnesses in Europe, dengue is second only to malaria as a cause of travellers being hospitalized. Local transmission has been reported in several European countries, including Spain. This study assesses the evolution of dengue-related admissions in Spain in terms of time, geographical distribution and individuals’ common characteristics; it also creates a predictive model to evaluate the risk of local transmission. Methods This is a retrospective study using the Hospital Discharge Records Database from 1997 to 2016. We calculated hospitalization rates and described clinical characteristics. Spatial distribution and temporal behaviour were also assessed, and a predictive time series model was created to estimate expected cases in the near future. Figures for resident foreign population, Spanish residents’ trips to endemic regions and the expansion of Aedes albopictus were also evaluated. Results A total of 588 dengue-related admissions were recorded: 49.6% were women, and the mean age was 34.3 years. One person died (0.2%), 82% presented with mild-to-moderate dengue and 7–8% with severe dengue. We observed a trend of steady and consistent increase in incidence (P < 0.05), in parallel with the increase in trips to dengue-endemic regions. Most admissions occurred during the summer, showing significant seasonality with 3-year peaks. We also found important regional differences. According to the predictive time series analysis, a continuing increase in imported dengue incidence can be expected in the near future, which, in the worst case scenario (upper 95% confidence interval), would mean an increase of 65% by 2025. Conclusion We present a nationwide study based on hospital, immigration, travel and entomological data. The constant increase in dengue-related hospitalizations, in combination with wider vector distribution, could imply a higher risk of autochthonous dengue transmission in the years to come. Strengthening the human and vector surveillance systems is a necessity, as are improvements in control measures, in the education of the general public and in fostering their collaboration in order to reduce the impact of imported dengue and to prevent the occurrence of autochthonous cases.

scholarly journals Tourism under the Early Phase of COVID-19 in Four APEC Economies: An Estimation with Special Focus on SARS Experiences

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (20) ◽  
pp. 7543
Author(s):  
Bao-Linh Tran ◽  
Chi-Chung Chen ◽  
Wei-Chun Tseng ◽  
Shu-Yi Liao
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
International Tourism ◽  
Special Focus ◽  
Tourism Demand ◽  
Data Set ◽  
The Impact

This study examines how experience of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) influences the impact of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on international tourism demand for four Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) economies, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Thailand, and New Zealand, over the 1 January–30 April 2020 period. To proceed, panel regression models are first applied with a time-lag effect to estimate the general effects of COVID-19 on daily tourist arrivals. In turn, the data set is decomposed into two nation groups and fixed effects models are employed for addressing the comparison of the pandemic-tourism relationship between economies with and without experiences of the SARS epidemic. Specifically, Taiwan and Hong Kong are grouped as economies with SARS experiences, while Thailand and New Zealand are grouped as countries without experiences of SARS. The estimation result indicates that the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases has a significant negative impact on tourism demand, in which a 1% COVID-19 case increase causes a 0.075% decline in tourist arrivals, which is a decline of approximately 110 arrivals for every additional person infected by the coronavirus. The negative impact of COVID-19 on tourist arrivals for Thailand and New Zealand is found much stronger than for Taiwan and Hong Kong. In particular, the number of tourist arrivals to Taiwan and Hong Kong decreased by 0.034% in response to a 1% increase in COVID-19 confirmed cases, while in Thailand and New Zealand, a 1% national confirmed cases increase caused a 0.103% reduction in tourism demand. Moreover, the effect of the number of domestic cases on international tourism is found lower than the effect caused by global COVID-19 mortality for the economies with SARS experiences. In contrast, tourist arrivals are majorly affected by the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Thailand and New Zealand. Finally, travel restriction in all cases is found to be the most influencing factor for the number of tourist arrivals. Besides contributing to the existing literature focusing on the knowledge regarding the nexus between tourism and COVID-19, the paper’s findings also highlight the importance of risk perception and the need of transmission prevention and control of the epidemic for the tourism sector.

Assembly System Configuration Design for Reconfigurability Under Uncertain Production Evolution

2019 ◽  
Vol 141 (7) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhengqian Jiang ◽  
Hui Wang ◽  
Maxim A. Dulebenets ◽  
Junayed Pasha
Keyword(s):  
System Throughput ◽  
Assembly System ◽  
Configuration Design ◽  
System Configuration ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Design Evolution ◽  
Product Evolution ◽  
Concurrent Optimization ◽  
The Impact

Assembly system configuration determines the topological arrangement of stations with defined logical material flow among them. The design of assembly system configuration involves (1) subassembly planning that defines subassembly tasks and between-task material flows and (2) workload balancing that determines the task-station assignments. The assembly system configuration should be flexibly changed and updated to cope with product design evolution and updating. However, the uncertainty in future product evolution poses significant challenges to the assembly system configuration design since the higher cost can be incurred if the assembly line suitable for future products is very different from that for the current products. The major challenges include (1) the estimation of reconfiguration cost, (2) unavailability of probability values for possible scenarios of product evolution, and (3) consideration of the impact of the subassembly planning on the task-station assignments. To address these challenges, this paper formulates a concurrent optimization problem to design the assembly system configuration by jointly determining the subassembly planning and task-station assignments considering uncertain product evolution. A new assembly hierarchy similarity model is proposed to estimate the reconfiguration effort by comparing the commonalities among different subassembly plans of current and potential future product designs. The assembly system configuration is chosen by maximizing both assembly hierarchy similarity and assembly system throughput under the worst-case scenario. A case study motivated by real-world scenarios demonstrates the applicability of the proposed method including scenario analysis.

Implications of  the U.S.–China Trade War  for  Taiwan

2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 61-81
Author(s):  
Wen-jen Hsieh
Keyword(s):  
Negative Impact ◽  
The United States ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
High Tech ◽  
Chinese Market ◽  
Economic Relationships ◽  
China Trade ◽  
Trade War ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The U.S

The ongoing U.S.-China trade war and ensuing high-tech conflicts are regarded as Taiwan's most crucial opportunity to slow down its progressively increasing economic dependence on China. The impact of the U.S.–China trade tensions on Taiwan are important to analyze because of Taiwan's relatively unique political and economic relationships with the United States and China, especially since the latter views Taiwan as its “breakaway province.” The regression results indicate that Taiwan's outward investment to China is significantly affected by Taiwan's lagged investment and exports to China, and the gap in the economic growth rates between Taiwan and China. Policy implications are provided for Taiwan to alleviate its economic dependency on the Chinese market and the negative impact from the U.S.-China trade war.

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