scholarly journals Climate Change and Food Security: The Impact of Some Key Variables on Wheat Yield in Kazakhstan

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (15) ◽  
pp. 8583
Author(s):  
Stanislav E. Shmelev ◽  
Vitaliy Salnikov ◽  
Galina Turulina ◽  
Svetlana Polyakova ◽  
Tamara Tazhibayeva ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Wheat Yield ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Moisture Index ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Impact

In such drought-prone regions as Kazakhstan, research on regional drought characteristics and their formation conditions is of paramount importance for actions to mitigate drought risks caused by climate change. This paper presents the results of research on the spatio-temporal patterns of atmospheric droughts as one of the most important factors hindering the formation of crop yields. The influence of several potential predictors characterizing teleconnection in the coupled “atmosphere–ocean” system and cosmic-geophysical factors affecting their formation is analyzed. The spatial relationships between atmospheric aridity at the individual stations of the investigated area and the wheat yield in Kazakhstan as well as its relationships with potential predictors were determined using econometric methods. High correlation was shown between wheat yield fluctuations and Multivariate El-Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), galactic cosmic radiation, solar activity, and atmospheric drought expressed through the soil moisture index, which in turn depends on precipitation levels and temperatures. The model could be modified further so that the individual components could be forecasted into the future using various time series in an ARIMA model. The resulting integration of these forecasts would allow the prediction of wheat yields in the future. The obtained results can be used in the process of creating effective mechanisms for adaptation to climate change and droughts based on their early diagnosis.

Climate Change and the Future of Taste

2008 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 14-20
Author(s):  
michele field
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Basmati Rice ◽  
Narrow Focus ◽  
The Future ◽  
Rainfall Patterns ◽  
The Impact

Until now, the impact of the expected climate changes on food has been almost entirely about crop yields, and fantasies about how olives might flourish in Oklahoma. This piece takes a narrow focus, asking how the changes in rainfall patterns and temperatures will possibly affect what a tomato tastes like, or whether the ““beef”” that our children enjoy will be too different for us to enjoy. Many important changes will be to the flavors of fish (already most palates can taste a difference between wild shrimp and farmed) and those foods relying on fragile herbs and flavors like vanilla. If food scenarios become very bad, no one is going to die from the loss of genuine basmati rice, but it is important to anticipate what we will lose. And enjoy it while we can.

scholarly journals Human dimensions of climate change: the vulnerability of small farmers in the Amazon

2008 ◽  
Vol 363 (1498) ◽  
pp. 1803-1809 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eduardo S Brondizio ◽  
Emilio F Moran
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Local Population ◽  
Human Dimensions ◽  
Small Farmers ◽  
Climate Information ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Environmental Diversity ◽  
The Impact

This paper argues for a twofold perspective on human adaptation to climate change in the Amazon. First, we need to understand the processes that mediate perceptions of environmental change and the behavioural responses at the levels of the individual and the local population. Second, we should take into account the process of production and dissemination of global and national climate information and models to regional and local populations, especially small farmers. We discuss the sociocultural and environmental diversity of small farmers in the Amazon and their susceptibility to climate change associated with drought, flooding and accidental fire. Using survey, ethnographic and archival data from study areas in the state of Pará, we discuss farmers' sources of knowledge and long-term memory of climatic events, drought and accidental fire; their sources of climate information; their responses to drought and fire events and the impact of changing rainfall patterns on land use. We highlight the challenges of adaptation to climate change created by the influence of migration and family turnover on collective action and memory, the mismatch of scales used to monitor and disseminate climate data and the lack of extension services to translate large-scale forecasts to local needs. We found that for most farmers, memories of extended drought tend to decrease significantly after 3 years. Over 50% of the farmers interviewed in 2002 did not remember as significant the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) drought of 1997/1998. This helps explain why approximately 40% of the farmers have not changed their land-use behaviours in the face of the strongest ENSO event of the twentieth century.

scholarly journals Assessing the impact of climate change on crop yields in Gangetic Plains Region, India

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 452-461
Author(s):  
NAVEEN P. SINGH ◽  
SURENDRA SINGH ◽  
BHAWNA ANAND ◽  
P.C. Ranjith
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Wheat Yield ◽  
Maize Yield ◽  
Agricultural System ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Gangetic Plains ◽  
Sugarcane Yield ◽  
In Trans ◽  
The Impact

Against the increasing vulnerability of agriculture and farm livelihoods to climate change, the study attempted to analyse the trend in climate variables and their impact on major crop yields during the period from 1966-2011, across 4 agro-climatic zones forming Gangetic Plains Region. A rising trend was observed in annual and seasonal (kharif and rabi) mean maximum and minimum temperature across the zones. Rainfall on the other hand, showed a declining trend. Overall, climate change adversely impacted crop yield, but the magnitudes of such effects vary spatially. The results reveal that rice and wheat yield will decline in the entire Gangetic region. By 2050s, maize yield will be higher by 6 percent in Lower Gangetic Plains; pearl millet will increase by 15 percent and rapeseed & mustard by 3.8 percent in Trans-Gangetic Plains. Amongst the crops, sugarcane yield was the most impacted to climate change and is expected to reduce by 21 percent in Middle Gangetic Plains towards end of the century. Hence, there is a need to formulate sustainable adaptation measures and practices suitable to location-specific needs for enhancing climate resiliency and capacity of agricultural system to withstand climatic shocks.

scholarly journals Spatial and temporal assessment of climate impact on agriculture in plateau region, India

2021 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 353-361
Author(s):  
NAVEEN P. SINGH ◽  
BHAWNA ANAND ◽  
K.V. RAO ◽  
RANJITH P.C.
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Wheat Yield ◽  
Maize Yield ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Plateau Region ◽  
Central Plateau ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

Using large-scale district-level data, the study examined the impact of climate change on crop yields during the period 1966-2011and predictsthe likely changes in yield sacross agro-climatic zones in Plateau Region. The future projections reveal that by 2080s, cotton yield is expected to decline by 7.18 percent in Western Plateau & Hills.By the end of the century, sorghum yield is projected to decline up to 19 percent in Central Plateau & Hills and increase by 18 percent in Western Plateau & Hills. Under midterm period, rapeseed & mustard yield is likely to reduce by 3.44 percent in Western Plateau & Hills. By 2050s maize yield is expected to reduce by 3.33 percent in Central Plateau & Hills. By 2080s, wheat yield is projected to decline by 5.44, percent in SouthernPlateau & Hills. The results suggest that impact of climate change on crop yield varies across regions, hence it is pertinent to formulate adaptation strategies and farm practices suitable to the crop and location specific needs that mitigate the likely exposure of food production and livelihoods to climate variations.

HOW CLIMATE CHANGE CAN INFLUENCE THE AGRICULTURE IN UKRAINE: A REVIEW

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Maidanovych ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Soil Surface ◽  
Winter Period ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Resource Saving ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Average Annual Temperature ◽  
The Impact

The purpose of this work is to review and analyze the main results of modern research on the impact of climate change on the agro-sphere of Ukraine. Results. Analysis of research has shown that the effects of climate change on the agro-sphere are already being felt today and will continue in the future. The observed climate changes in recent decades have already significantly affected the shift in the northern direction of all agro-climatic zones of Europe, including Ukraine. From the point of view of productivity of the agro-sphere of Ukraine, climate change will have both positive and negative consequences. The positives include: improving the conditions of formation and reducing the harvesting time of crop yields; the possibility of effective introduction of late varieties (hybrids), which require more thermal resources; improving the conditions for overwintering crops; increase the efficiency of fertilizer application. Model estimates of the impact of climate change on wheat yields in Ukraine mainly indicate the positive effects of global warming on yields in the medium term, but with an increase in the average annual temperature by 2 ° C above normal, grain yields are expected to decrease. The negative consequences of the impact of climate change on the agrosphere include: increased drought during the growing season; acceleration of humus decomposition in soils; deterioration of soil moisture in the southern regions; deterioration of grain quality and failure to ensure full vernalization of grain; increase in the number of pests, the spread of pathogens of plants and weeds due to favorable conditions for their overwintering; increase in wind and water erosion of the soil caused by an increase in droughts and extreme rainfall; increasing risks of freezing of winter crops due to lack of stable snow cover. Conclusions. Resource-saving agricultural technologies are of particular importance in the context of climate change. They include technologies such as no-till, strip-till, ridge-till, which make it possible to partially store and accumulate mulch on the soil surface, reduce the speed of the surface layer of air and contribute to better preservation of moisture accumulated during the autumn-winter period. And in determining the most effective ways and mechanisms to reduce weather risks for Ukrainian farmers, it is necessary to take into account the world practice of climate-smart technologies.

scholarly journals The Impact of Human Pressure and Climate Change on the Habitat Availability and Protection of Cypripedium (Orchidaceae) in Northeast China

Plants ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 84
Author(s):  
Huanchu Liu ◽  
Hans Jacquemyn ◽  
Xingyuan He ◽  
Wei Chen ◽  
Yanqing Huang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Northeast China ◽  
Habitat Destruction ◽  
Changbai Mountains ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Human Pressure ◽  
Terrestrial Orchids ◽  
The Future ◽  
Suitable Habitats ◽  
The Impact

Human pressure on the environment and climate change are two important factors contributing to species decline and overall loss of biodiversity. Orchids may be particularly vulnerable to human-induced losses of habitat and the pervasive impact of global climate change. In this study, we simulated the extent of the suitable habitat of three species of the terrestrial orchid genus Cypripedium in northeast China and assessed the impact of human pressure and climate change on the future distribution of these species. Cypripedium represents a genus of long-lived terrestrial orchids that contains several species with great ornamental value. Severe habitat destruction and overcollection have led to major population declines in recent decades. Our results showed that at present the most suitable habitats of the three species can be found in Da Xing’an Ling, Xiao Xing’an Ling and in the Changbai Mountains. Human activity was predicted to have the largest impact on species distributions in the Changbai Mountains. In addition, climate change was predicted to lead to a shift in distribution towards higher elevations and to an increased fragmentation of suitable habitats of the three investigated Cypripedium species in the study area. These results will be valuable for decision makers to identify areas that are likely to maintain viable Cypripedium populations in the future and to develop conservation strategies to protect the remaining populations of these enigmatic orchid species.

scholarly journals Assessing the Sensitivity of Main Crop Yields to Climate Change Impacts in China

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 172
Author(s):  
Yuan Xu ◽  
Jieming Chou ◽  
Fan Yang ◽  
Mingyang Sun ◽  
Weixing Zhao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Yield ◽  
Food Production ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Climatic Data ◽  
The South ◽  
The North ◽  
Output Elasticity ◽  
The Impact

Quantitatively assessing the spatial divergence of the sensitivity of crop yield to climate change is of great significance for reducing the climate change risk to food production. We use socio-economic and climatic data from 1981 to 2015 to examine how climate variability led to variation in yield, as simulated by an economy–climate model (C-D-C). The sensitivity of crop yield to the impact of climate change refers to the change in yield caused by changing climatic factors under the condition of constant non-climatic factors. An ‘output elasticity of comprehensive climate factor (CCF)’ approach determines the sensitivity, using the yields per hectare for grain, rice, wheat and maize in China’s main grain-producing areas as a case study. The results show that the CCF has a negative trend at a rate of −0.84/(10a) in the North region, while a positive trend of 0.79/(10a) is observed for the South region. Climate change promotes the ensemble increase in yields, and the contribution of agricultural labor force and total mechanical power to yields are greater, indicating that the yield in major grain-producing areas mainly depends on labor resources and the level of mechanization. However, the sensitivities to climate change of different crop yields to climate change present obvious regional differences: the sensitivity to climate change of the yield per hectare for maize in the North region was stronger than that in the South region. Therefore, the increase in the yield per hectare for maize in the North region due to the positive impacts of climate change was greater than that in the South region. In contrast, the sensitivity to climate change of the yield per hectare for rice in the South region was stronger than that in the North region. Furthermore, the sensitivity to climate change of maize per hectare yield was stronger than that of rice and wheat in the North region, and that of rice was the highest of the three crop yields in the South region. Finally, the economy–climate sensitivity zones of different crops were determined by the output elasticity of the CCF to help adapt to climate change and prevent food production risks.

scholarly journals The effects of ENSO, climate change and human activities on the water level of Lake Toba, Indonesia: a critical literature review

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hendri Irwandi ◽  
Mohammad Syamsu Rosid ◽  
Terry Mart
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Dominant Factor ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Continuous Increase ◽  
The Future

AbstractThis research quantitatively and qualitatively analyzes the factors responsible for the water level variations in Lake Toba, North Sumatra Province, Indonesia. According to several studies carried out from 1993 to 2020, changes in the water level were associated with climate variability, climate change, and human activities. Furthermore, these studies stated that reduced rainfall during the rainy season due to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the continuous increase in the maximum and average temperatures were some of the effects of climate change in the Lake Toba catchment area. Additionally, human interventions such as industrial activities, population growth, and damage to the surrounding environment of the Lake Toba watershed had significant impacts in terms of decreasing the water level. However, these studies were unable to determine the factor that had the most significant effect, although studies on other lakes worldwide have shown these factors are the main causes of fluctuations or decreases in water levels. A simulation study of Lake Toba's water balance showed the possibility of having a water surplus until the mid-twenty-first century. The input discharge was predicted to be greater than the output; therefore, Lake Toba could be optimized without affecting the future water level. However, the climate projections depicted a different situation, with scenarios predicting the possibility of extreme climate anomalies, demonstrating drier climatic conditions in the future. This review concludes that it is necessary to conduct an in-depth, comprehensive, and systematic study to identify the most dominant factor among the three that is causing the decrease in the Lake Toba water level and to describe the future projected water level.

scholarly journals Application of SWAT in Hydrological Simulation of Complex Mountainous River Basin (Part II: Climate Change Impact Assessment)

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 1548
Author(s):  
Suresh Marahatta ◽  
Deepak Aryal ◽  
Laxmi Prasad Devkota ◽  
Utsav Bhattarai ◽  
Dibesh Shrestha
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Mountainous River

This study aims at analysing the impact of climate change (CC) on the river hydrology of a complex mountainous river basin—the Budhigandaki River Basin (BRB)—using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model that was calibrated and validated in Part I of this research. A relatively new approach of selecting global climate models (GCMs) for each of the two selected RCPs, 4.5 (stabilization scenario) and 8.5 (high emission scenario), representing four extreme cases (warm-wet, cold-wet, warm-dry, and cold-dry conditions), was applied. Future climate data was bias corrected using a quantile mapping method. The bias-corrected GCM data were forced into the SWAT model one at a time to simulate the future flows of BRB for three 30-year time windows: Immediate Future (2021–2050), Mid Future (2046–2075), and Far Future (2070–2099). The projected flows were compared with the corresponding monthly, seasonal, annual, and fractional differences of extreme flows of the simulated baseline period (1983–2012). The results showed that future long-term average annual flows are expected to increase in all climatic conditions for both RCPs compared to the baseline. The range of predicted changes in future monthly, seasonal, and annual flows shows high uncertainty. The comparative frequency analysis of the annual one-day-maximum and -minimum flows shows increased high flows and decreased low flows in the future. These results imply the necessity for design modifications in hydraulic structures as well as the preference of storage over run-of-river water resources development projects in the study basin from the perspective of climate resilience.

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