scholarly journals Quantitative Analysis of Global Terrorist Attacks Based on the Global Terrorism Database

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (14) ◽  
pp. 7598
Author(s):  
Zhongbei Li ◽  
Xiangchun Li ◽  
Chen Dong ◽  
Fanfan Guo ◽  
Fan Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Southeast Asia ◽  
Terrorist Attack ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Three Dimensions ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
The Past ◽  
Global Terrorism ◽  
The Government ◽  
Global Terrorism Database

Terrorist attacks have become a serious source of risk affecting the security of the international community. Using the Global Terrorism Database (GTD), in order to quantitatively study past terrorist attacks and their temporal and spatial evolution the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was used to classify the degree of damage from terrorist attacks. The various factors influencing terrorist attacks were extracted and represented in three dimensions. Subsequently, using MATLAB for analysis and processing, the grading standards for terrorist attacks were classified into five levels according to the degree of hazard. Based on this grading standard, the top ten terrorist attacks with the highest degree of hazard in the past two decades were listed. Because the characteristics and habits of a terrorist or group exhibit a certain consistency, the K-means cluster analysis method was used to classify terrorists according to region, type of attack, type of target and type of weapon used by the terrorists. Several attacks that might have been committed by the same terrorist organization or individual at different times and in different locations were classified into one category, and the top five categories were selected according to the degree of sabotage inflicted by the organization or individual. Finally, the spatiotemporal evolution of terrorist attacks in the past three years was analyzed, considering the terrorist attack targets and key areas of terrorist attacks. The Middle East, Southeast Asia, Central Asia, and Africa were predicted to be the regions that will be most seriously affected by future global terrorist events. The terrorist attacks in Southeast Asia are expected to become more severe, and the scope of terrorist attacks in Africa is expected to widen. Civilians are the targets most at risk for terrorist attacks, and the corresponding risk index is considerably higher than it is for other targets. The results of this research can help individuals and the government to enable a better understanding of terrorism, improve awareness to prevent terrorism and enhance emergency management and rescue, and provide a solid and reliable basis and reference for joint counterterrorism in various countries and regions.

Terrorist Attacks Targeting Police, 1998–2010: Exploring Heavily Hit Countries

2018 ◽  
Vol 30 (3) ◽  
pp. 261-278
Author(s):  
Jennifer C. Gibbs
Keyword(s):  
Law Enforcement ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Common Thread ◽  
Global Terrorism ◽  
The Government ◽  
Global Terrorism Database ◽  
Scholarly Attention

With over 14% of all terrorist attacks since 1970 targeting law enforcement, terrorist attacks on police is a problem in need of scholarly attention. Police serve as symbolic targets of the government and strategic targets of terrorist attacks, yet we know little about such attacks. This article explores terrorist attacks targeting police in heavily hit countries, drawing from the Global Terrorism Database. While Iraq and India have the most terrorist attacks targeting police, these countries also have a high number of terrorist attacks against all targets. To account for the total number of terrorist attacks, proportions are explored, finding Macedonia, Russia, and Georgia have the highest proportions of terrorist attacks targeting police between 1998 and 2010. A common thread among these heavily hit countries is a rapidly changing governing regime coupled with societal schism—in other words, these countries seem to share low governmental legitimacy. Implications for future research are discussed.

scholarly journals Terrorism and emergency constitutions in the Muslim world

2021 ◽  
pp. 002234332110124
Author(s):  
Christian Bjørnskov ◽  
Stefan Voigt
Keyword(s):  
Muslim World ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Discretionary Power ◽  
Specific Group ◽  
State Of Emergency ◽  
Terrorist Activity ◽  
Global Terrorism ◽  
The Government ◽  
Global Terrorism Database ◽  
Terrorist Events

Previous research has indicated that constitutionalized emergency provisions effectively constrain the behaviour of democratic governments subsequent to terrorist attacks. In this article, we ask if this is also true for autocratic governments. Are non-democratic governments equally subject to constitutionalized constraints regarding their reactions to emergencies and particularly to terrorist attacks? To answer the question, we analyse the behaviour of a specific group of predominantly autocratic governments that are particularly subject to frequent terrorist incidents, namely the states that are members of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation. Employing data on terrorist activity from the Global Terrorism Database and constitutional data from the Index of Emergency Powers, we estimate the association between constitutionalized constraints and terrorist attacks in a dataset covering 48 member-states of the organization observed annually between 1970 and 2014. As hypothesized, we find that emergency constitutions that politically make it relatively cheap for governments to declare a state of emergency are more likely to be invoked. In addition, we find that governments are more likely to increase repression after terrorist events when the constitution allocates more discretionary power to the government in emergencies. Our evidence thus suggests that emergency constitutions also impact on the behaviour of largely autocratic governments.

scholarly journals Quantitative Research on Global Terrorist Attacks and Terrorist Attack Classification

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 1487 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xueli Hu ◽  
Fujun Lai ◽  
Gufan Chen ◽  
Rongcheng Zou ◽  
Qingxiang Feng
Keyword(s):  
Quantitative Research ◽  
Terrorist Attack ◽  
Relevant Literature ◽  
Network Models ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Terrorist Organizations ◽  
Terrorist Organization ◽  
Global Terrorism ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Global Terrorism Database

Terrorist attacks are events which hinder the development of a region. Before the terrorist attacks, we need to conduct a graded evaluation of the terrorist attacks. After getting the level of terrorist attacks, we can fight terrorist organizations more effectively. This paper builds rating models for terrorist attacks, hidden or emerging terrorist organization classification discovery models, terrorist organization alliance network models and more, through quantitative research of the Global Terrorism Database, which solved the event classification. Through studying relevant literature and the variables of the Global Terrorism Database, this paper sorted out 25 observation variables related to the impact level (level of harm) of terrorist attacks. By establishing a mathematical model of factor analysis, 11 factors related to the impact level (level of harm) of terrorist attacks were constructed, and the variance of the contribution of each factor was used as the weight to calculate the comprehensive rate of the impact level of each terrorist attack. Finally, K-means clustering method is used to cluster and analyze the comprehensive rate of impact level, and the top 10 terrorist attacks with the highest impact level in the past two decades were obtained.

scholarly journals Investigation on the Screening Model of Chemical Hazards Based on the Risk of Domino Effect and Terrorist Attack

2020 ◽  
Vol 198 ◽  
pp. 03006
Author(s):  
Huang Wenduo ◽  
Shao Xuechun ◽  
Wang Jiajie ◽  
Xiao Yang ◽  
Sun Dongliang
Keyword(s):  
Terrorist Attack ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Chemical Plants ◽  
Domino Effect ◽  
Screening Model ◽  
Chemical Hazards ◽  
Modern Chemical ◽  
Screening And Identification ◽  
Accident Scenarios

The heavy losses are often caused in modern chemical plants at the time of the accident. In order to prevent accidents, the screening and identification of hazards is needed. In this paper, the screening model of hazards in chemical plants was studied under the domino effect and the risk of terrorist attack. According to the threshold and strength of the domino effect of the unit under the main accident scenarios, the index of domino effect was developed. The risk index of terrorist attacks was determined in line with the distance between the unit and the boundary under the assumption of terrorist attacks. The hazards screening model Z was designed based on two aspects of the study. The model was applied in screening the hazards. The results showed that closer units near the border were more dangerous under the risk of terrorist attack, and the devices surrounded by units with greater influence of accidents were more dangerous under the risk of domino effect. The indices of the tanks were ordered: Z105>Z101>Z103>Z106>Z104>Z102>Z201>Z202>Z203>Z204>Z205>Z206>Z303>Z304>Z301>Z302>Z306>Z305. The domino effect and the risk of terrorist attacks were combined into the present model for perfection and correction of the existing hazards screening model, as the new basis for major hazards identification.

scholarly journals Local alliances and rivalries shape near-repeat terror activity of al-Qaeda, ISIS, and insurgents

2019 ◽  
Vol 116 (42) ◽  
pp. 20898-20903 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yao-Li Chuang ◽  
Noam Ben-Asher ◽  
Maria R. D’Orsogna
Keyword(s):  
Policy Making ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Al Qaeda ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Collaborative Relationship ◽  
Regional Dynamics ◽  
Global Terrorism ◽  
Near Repeat ◽  
Global Terrorism Database

We study the spatiotemporal correlation of terrorist attacks by al-Qaeda, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), and local insurgents, in six geographical areas identified via k-means clustering applied to the Global Terrorism Database. All surveyed organizations exhibit near-repeat activity whereby a prior attack increases the likelihood of a subsequent one by the same group within 20 km and on average 4 (al-Qaeda) to 10 (ISIS) weeks. Near-response activity, whereby an attack by a given organization elicits further attacks from a different one, is found to depend on the adversarial, neutral, or collaborative relationship between the two. When in conflict, local insurgents respond quickly to attacks by global terror groups while global terror groups delay their responses to local insurgents, leading to an asymmetric dynamic. When neutral or allied, attacks by one group enhance the response likelihood of the other, regardless of hierarchy. These trends arise consistently in all clusters for which data are available. Government intervention and spillover effects are also discussed; we find no evidence of outbidding. Understanding the regional dynamics of terrorism may be greatly beneficial in policy making and intervention design.

There Can Be No Compromise: Institutional Inclusiveness, Fractionalization and Domestic Terrorism

2012 ◽  
Vol 43 (3) ◽  
pp. 541-557 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dennis M. Foster ◽  
Alex Braithwaite ◽  
David Sobek
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Minority Groups ◽  
Proportional Representation ◽  
Social Mobilization ◽  
Domestic Terrorism ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Small Minority ◽  
Political Actors ◽  
Global Terrorism ◽  
Global Terrorism Database

Research on terrorism in democracies borrows from the literature on civil war and rebellion to argue that more proportional representation decreases the likelihood of terrorist violence. However, theories of broader social mobilization may be ill-suited to predicting the occurrence of terrorism. This article proposes that proportionalism's institutionalization of small minority groups as legitimate but relatively insignificant political actors leads to militancy. Analyses of the Global Terrorism Database on domestic terrorist attacks across all democracies in 1975–2007 provide broad support for this argument. The presence and greater degrees of proportionalism are significantly associated with greater levels of domestic terrorism when ethnic fractionalization within a given society increases. Moreover, domestic terrorism increases as the number of small parties represented in the legislature increases.

scholarly journals The Day After the Bomb: Well-Being Effects of Terrorist Attacks in Europe

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emilio Colombo ◽  
Valentina Rotondi ◽  
Luca Stanca
Keyword(s):  
Terrorist Attack ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Well Being ◽  
European Social Survey ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Negative Attitudes ◽  
Social Survey ◽  
Satisfaction With Democracy ◽  
Muslim Immigrants ◽  
The Government

AbstractWe study the non-monetary costs of terrorist attacks in France, Belgium and Germany between 2010 and 2017. Using four waves of the European Social Survey, we find that individual well-being is significantly reduced in the aftermath of a terrorist attack. We explore possible mechanisms, finding that terrorist attacks are negatively correlated with generalized trust, institutional trust, satisfaction with democracy and satisfaction with the government. Terrorist attacks are also found to be positively correlated with negative attitudes towards migrants and perceived discrimination. Contrary to expectations, the negative relationship between terrorism and well-being is less strong for Muslim immigrants. We interpret this finding as an indication that immigrants benefit more than natives from the institutional reaction following terrorist attacks.

Terrorism in China and the Emerging Needs for Counter- Terrorism Medicine Following a Decade of Deaths and Injuries

2021 ◽  
Vol 36 (3) ◽  
pp. 270-275
Author(s):  
Derrick Tin ◽  
Alexander Hart ◽  
Gregory R. Ciottone
Keyword(s):  
English Language ◽  
Health Workers ◽  
Grey Literature ◽  
Inclusion Criteria ◽  
The Past ◽  
Terrorism Risk ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Global Terrorism ◽  
Global Terrorism Database ◽  
Terrorist Events

AbstractBackground:China is ranked 42nd on the Global Terrorism Index (2019), a scoring system of terrorist activities. While China has a relatively low terrorism risk, events globally have wide-ranging repercussions for future attacks, putting first responders and emergency health workers at risk. This study aims to provide the epidemiological context for the past decade detailing the unique injury types responders are likely to encounter and to develop training programs utilizing these data.Methods:The Global Terrorism Database (GTD) was searched for all attacks in China between the years 2008-2018. Attacks met inclusion criteria if they fulfilled the terrorism-related criteria as set by the GTD’s Codebook. Ambiguous events, as defined by the GTD’s Codebook, were excluded. English language grey literature was searched to ensure no events meeting these criteria were missed. A focused search of online English language newspaper articles was also performed for any terrorist events between 2008-2018.Results:One-hundred and eight terrorist events occurred in the study time period. Of the 108 incidents, forty-seven (43.5%) involved Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite (E/B/D) only, with an average fatality count of 2.9 and injury count of 7.5 per event. Twenty-seven (25.0%) used bladed or blunt weapons in melees with an average fatality count of 9.7 and an injury count of 8.8 per event. Five (4.6%) involved incendiary weapons with an average fatality count of 2.4 and an injury count of 7.2 per event. Two used only chemical weapons (1.8%) with no recorded deaths and an injury count of 27.0 per event. Two events had unknown weapon types (1.8%) with one recorded death and no injury count. One event used a firearm (0.9%) and led to one death and no injuries. One event used a vehicle (0.9%), which also led to one death and no recorded injuries. Twenty-three attacks used a mix of weapons (21.2%) with an average fatality count of 17.1 and an injury count of 12.0 per event.Conclusions:One-hundred and eight terrorist attacks were recorded between 2008-2018 on Chinese soil using well-understood modalities. This resulted in a total of 809 recorded fatalities with 956 non-fatal injuries. The most commonly chosen methodology was E/B/D, followed by melees and the use of bladed weapons. Three events individually recorded a combined casualty toll of over 100 people.

scholarly journals The impact of the terrorism on North African tourism

2017 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 1081-1087
Author(s):  
Florentina-Stefania Neagu
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Relations ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
North African ◽  
Data Bases ◽  
Total Contribution ◽  
Travel And Tourism ◽  
The North ◽  
Global Terrorism ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Global Terrorism Database

AbstractTourism is one of the most important sector of the national economy and in the same time is the main reason for which the tourists visit the North African states. In 2015, the total contribution of North African tourism represent 10.8% from GDP registering an increase of 1.4% compared to 2014, also the contribution of tourism to employment was 10.4 % in 2015. But this increase was affected by the terrorist attacks in Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia. According to Global Terrorism Index for 2016, these countries are in the ranking of states with the highest impact of terrorism. Security situation in 2015 is the following: 947 incidents, 1198 deaths, 1603 injured, 264 property damages. This situation greatly influences the decision of tourists to travel in these countries. For demonstrate what is the impact on terrorism in this region have been analized the data bases of World Travel and Tourism Council, Council and Foreign Relations and Global Terrorism Database for the period 2010-2015. If the terrorist attacks continue in the next years not only the tourism will be affected but also the activities of its associates.

scholarly journals Study on Correlation Factors that Influence Terrorist Attack Fatalities Using Global Terrorism Database

2014 ◽  
Vol 84 ◽  
pp. 698-707 ◽  
Author(s):  
Li Guohui ◽  
Lu Song ◽  
Cheng Xudong ◽  
Yang Hui ◽  
Zhang Heping
Keyword(s):  
Terrorist Attack ◽  
Global Terrorism ◽  
Global Terrorism Database ◽  
Correlation Factors
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