scholarly journals Decision Tree and AHP Methods Application for Projects Assessment: A Case Study

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (10) ◽  
pp. 5502
Author(s):  
Augustinas Maceika ◽  
Andrej Bugajev ◽  
Olga Regina Šostak ◽  
Tatjana Vilutienė
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Tree ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Model Stability ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Tree Methods ◽  
Hierarchy Process

This research is dedicated to the modelling of decision process occurring during the implementation of construction projects. Recent studies generally do not assess the robustness of the decisions regarding the possible changes during the construction project implementation. However, such an assessment might increase the reliability of the decision-making process. We addressed this gap through a new model that combines the decision-making process modelling with the AHP method and includes the analysis of model stability concerning stakeholders’ behaviour. We used the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Decision tree methods to model the decision-making process. The proposed model was validated on a case study of multiple construction projects. The assessment was performed from individual investor’s and independent expert’s perspectives. The criteria for the assessment were selected according to the principles of sustainability. We performed the sensitivity analysis, making it possible to assess the possible changes of the decisions depending on the potential patterns of the decision-makers’ behaviour. The results of the study show that, sometimes, small fluctuations in the project factors affect the project selection indicating the possible lack of the robustness of the project decisions.

scholarly journals Аn example of different AHP structuring in a forest management problem

2016 ◽  
pp. 127-137
Author(s):  
Milena Lakicevic ◽  
Bojan Srdjevic ◽  
Ivaylo Velichkov ◽  
Zorica Srdjevic
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Forest Management ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy Process ◽  
Evaluation Procedure ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Management Problem ◽  
Consistency Check ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Hierarchy Process

The paper investigates how different hierarchy structuring in analytic hierarchy process (AHP) may affect the final results in the decision-making process. This problem is analyzed in a case study of the Rila monastery forest stands in Bulgaria. There were three similar and mutually overlapped hierarchies defined. A decision maker evaluated all of them and after analyzing final results and consistency performance, he selected and revised the most appropriate hierarchy structure. Consistency check assisted in detecting the judgments which have strongly violated evaluation procedure. These mistakes are interpreted as a consequence of a large number of required pair-wise comparisons. The paper emphases the importance of properly defining hierarchy structure and recommends using consistency analysis as a guide and not as a directive for the revision of judgments.

A novel model for risk management of outsourced construction projects using decision-making methods: a case study

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 97-123 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amin Mahmoudi ◽  
Mehdi Abbasi ◽  
Xiaopeng Deng ◽  
Muhammad Ikram ◽  
Salman Yeganeh
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Project Managers ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Suitable Alternative ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
The Cost ◽  
First Time

PurposeSelecting a suitable contract to outsource construction projects is an ongoing concern for project managers and organizational directors. This study aims to propose a comprehensive model to manage the risks of outsourced construction project contracts.Design/methodology/approachTo employ the proposed model, firstly, the types of contracts and risks in the organization should be identified, then, to prioritize the contracts, the identified risks are considered as criteria. After receiving the experts' opinions, the best–worst method (BWM) integrated with grey relation analysis (GRA) method was used to prioritize the contracts. BWM and GRA are multi-criteria decision-making methods with different approaches and applications. In the current study, BWM has been employed to calculate the weights of criteria because it has better performance than other methods such as the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). After calculating the weights of criteria, the GRA method has been utilized for ranking the alternatives.FindingsAccording to the results obtained from the case study, the cost plus award fee contract is the most suitable alternative for outsourcing construction projects. The proposed methodology can be practically applied through different types of the projects such as construction or “engineering, procurement and construction”.Originality/valueTo the best of our knowledge, this is the first time a conceptual model has been proposed to select an appropriate contract for construction projects. Also, for the first time, the BWM integrated with GRA method has been used to prioritize project contracts based on the potential risks. The proposed model can contribute to project managers for selecting a suitable contract with the least risk in construction projects.

scholarly journals Seleção de financiamento para aquisição de aeronaves: Uma aplicação do método de análise hierárquica (AHP)

TRANSPORTES ◽  
1998 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergio Ronaldo Granemann ◽  
Ivan Ricardo Gartner
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Capital Structure ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy Process ◽  
Complex Problem ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Model Stability ◽  
Multicriteria Methods ◽  
Qualitative Variables ◽  
Hierarchy Process

<p>A escolha do financiamento para aquisição de aeronaves nas companhias aéreas brasileiras é um problema crucial e complexo. É crucial, pois exerce grande influência na estrutura de capitais da empresa. E é complexo por envolver a analise de uma ampla gama de variáveis quantitativas e qualitativas. Este tipo de problema requer o uso de métodos multicritérios que conjuguem as diferentes variáveis que interagem no processo decisório. Neste estudo foi aplicado o método AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) na classificação das alternativas de financiamento disponíveis para a aquisição de aeronaves. Ao final do trabalho, foi realizada uma ampla análise de sensibilidade dos resultados alcançados, visando a determinação da estabilidade do modelo a variações nos julgamentos dos decisores.</p><p>ABSTRACT</p><p>The choice of the finaancing system for aircraft acquisition for Brazilian airlines companies is a fundamental and complex problem. It is fundamental for Brazilian companies because it affects their capital structure and it is complex because it involves a large number of quantitative and qualitative variables. The solution of this problem requires the use of multicriteria methods that are able to combine variables of distinct nature for supporting the decision making process. In this paper, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is adopted for rating the £inancing alternatives for aircraft acquisition. In order to veri£y the model stability, a sentitivity analysis was then carried out based on the model results.</p>

scholarly journals Decision Making Through the Fuzzy TOPSIS Method

2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 71-82 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Oben Sabuncuoglu ◽  
Ali Gorener
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Fuzzy Topsis ◽  
Construction Project Management ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Contractor Selection ◽  
Decision Making Problem ◽  
Hierarchy Process ◽  
Qualitative And Quantitative Characteristics

Construction contractors have a great role in terms of operation work properly in construction project management. An effective contractor selection is most important to the success of any construction projects. Contractor selection is a multi criteria decision making problem which includes qualitative and quantitative characteristics. For the contractor selection problem, this study proposes a combined decision approach, which employs analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and Fuzzy Technique Ordered Preference by Similarity to the Ideal Solution (TOPSIS)  methods. In the proposed approach, AHP is used to determine the weights of selection criteria, and Fuzzy TOPSIS is used to select appropriate contractor alternative. Additionally, a real case study in construction industry is presented to illustrate the application of the proposed approach.

scholarly journals Decision-Making Methodologies for Reuse of Industrial Assets

Complexity ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-17 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Claver ◽  
A. García-Domínguez ◽  
M. A. Sebastián
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Support Techniques ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Final Decision ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Future Developments ◽  
Cultural Interest ◽  
Hierarchy Process ◽  
Multicriteria Decision Support

When there is a social consensus that industrial assets are in fact heritage elements of cultural interest, their conservation and reuse must be considered with approaches that offer greater guarantees and that prevent their exposure to aggressive actions. In order for this to materialise, many aspects must be included in the decision-making process, from the characteristics of an asset and its surroundings, to the valuable aspects that distinguish it and that must be protected. This study aims to develop tools that guide the decision-making process regarding the most appropriate activity for each specific case study. Multicriteria Decision Support Techniques are evaluated as adequate support to create a proposal that fulfils these objectives. Furthermore, the Analytic Hierarchy Process is adapted to develop methodologies for assessing both the heritage value and the most compatible uses according to the characteristics of the asset. Subsequently, they are connected and such considerations regarding the heritage value of the asset are incorporated into the final decision. The tools developed are then applied to a case study to test their performance, assess their usefulness, and identify possible applications and future developments.

Learning from failures: Design improvements using a multiple criteria decision-making process

2003 ◽  
Vol 217 (4) ◽  
pp. 207-216 ◽  
Author(s):  
G G Davidson ◽  
A W Labib
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Failure Modes ◽  
Multiple Criteria Decision Making ◽  
Multiple Criteria ◽  
Mathematical Representation ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Invaluable Tool ◽  
History Of

This paper proposes a new concept of decision analysis based on a multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) process. This is achieved through the provision of a systematic and generic methodology for the implementation of design improvements based on experience of past failures. This is illustrated in the form of a case study identifying the changes made to Concorde after the 2000 accident. The proposed model uses the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) mathematical model as a backbone and integrates elements of a modified failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA). The AHP has proven to be an invaluable tool for decision support since it allows a fully documented and transparent decision to be made with full accountability. In addition, it facilitates the task of justifying improvement decisions. The paper is divided as follows: the first section presents an outline of the background to the Concorde accident and its history of related (non-catastrophic) malfunctions. The AHP methodology and its mathematical representation are then presented with the integrated FMEA applied to the Concorde accident. The case study arrives at the same conclusion as engineers working on Concorde after the accident: that the aircraft may fly again if the lining of the fuel tanks are modified.

scholarly journals MULTI CRITERIA DECISION MAKING – RANKING AND PROMOTING EMPLOYEES

2019 ◽  
Vol 31 (5) ◽  
pp. 1235-1241
Author(s):  
Marina Badarovska Mishevska
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Problem ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Specific Situation ◽  
Mathematical Tool ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
The Right ◽  
Term Performance ◽  
Hierarchy Process

The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is a structured technique for organizing and analyzing complex decisions, based on mathematics and psychology. The method was developed by Thomas L. Saaty in the 1970s and has been extensively studied and refined since then. It has particular application in group decision making and is used around the world in a wide variety of decision situation. Rather than prescribing a "correct" decision, the AHP helps decision makers choose one that best suits their goal and their understanding of the problem. The technique provides a comprehensive and rational framework for structuring a decision problem, for representing and quantifying its elements, for relating those elements to overall goals, and for evaluating alternative solutions. Decision making is the choice of one alternative, from two or more, to which the course of the activity is directed and the problem is solved. The decision-making process is a rational attempt by the manager to achieve the goals of the organizational unit. The decision-making process can be thought of as a "brain and nervous system" of an enterprise. Decisions are made when a person wants things to be different in the future. Given each specific situation, making the right decisions is probably one of the most difficult challenges for managers. Managers in day-to-day work deliver programmed and unprogrammed decisions that solve simple or complex problems. Simple decisions have an impact on the short-term performance of the enterprise, and complex decisions have an impact on the long-term future and success of the enterprise. Users of the AHP first decompose their decision problem into a hierarchy of more easily comprehended sub-problems, each of which can be analyzed independently. Once the hierarchy is built, the decision makers systematically evaluate its various elements by comparing them to each other two at a time, with respect to their impact on an element above them in the hierarchy. The AHP converts these evaluations to numerical values that can be processed and compared over the entire range of the problem. In this article, it is explained the application of the AHP method in order to evaluate and promote employees in the enterprise "X" with several criteria. The obtained results enable the manager to evaluate the employees in an objective way and make an objective decision for their promotion. Its application for selecting the best among employees, in their assessment and promotion, allows managers to use a specific and mathematical tool to support the decision. This tool not only supports and qualifies decisions, it also allows managers to justify their choice, as well as to simulate possible results.

Implementation of Decision Tree for Maintenance Policy Decision Making - A Case Study in Semiconductor Industry

2012 ◽  
Vol 591-593 ◽  
pp. 704-707 ◽  
Author(s):  
Siew Hong Ding ◽  
Teing Tien Goh ◽  
Pei Sze Tan ◽  
Siew Ching Wee ◽  
Shahrul Kamaruddin
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Tree ◽  
Failure Mechanism ◽  
Semiconductor Industry ◽  
Policy Decision ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Maintenance Policy ◽  
Machine Performance ◽  
Policy Decision Making

Suitable maintenance policy implemented in particular machine able to improve the machine performance as well as the product quality. However, selecting a suitable maintenance policy is a vital and hard work because it has to be decided from analysis of various criteria including failure mechanism and resources limitation. Thus, decision tree is suggested in this paper to provide assistance for maintenance crew in conducting a systematic and efficient decision making process in determining the suitable maintenance policy. In the end of the paper, a case study in semiconductor industry is conducted to illustrate the practicability of developed decision tree.

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