scholarly journals Info-Gap Models for Optimal Multi-Year Management of Regional Water Resources Systems under Uncertainty

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 3152
Author(s):  
Mashor Housh ◽  
Tomer Aharon
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Management Tool ◽  
Change Processes ◽  
Deep Uncertainty ◽  
Water Resources Systems ◽  
Uncertain Future

The common practices for the planning and management of Water Resources Systems (WSSs) have been challenged in the last few decades by global climate change processes, which are observed around the world in increasing frequencies. Climate change is manifested by climate variability, temperature increase, and extreme events such as droughts and floods, which have a decisive effect on natural resource availability and in turn on water quality. Historical records may not be sufficient to reliably account for uncertain future predictions under climate change conditions. While such highly uncertain situations become the “normal” case worldwide, the traditional practices of probabilistic risk measures cannot be used to appropriately quantify the uncertain phenomena under non-stationarity conditions. To better account for uncertain future conditions, the objective of this study is to develop a water management model based on Info-Gap Decision Theory (IGDT) using optimization under deep uncertainty conditions. The Info-Gap theory is a framework that measures the confidence in the operational decisions by quantifying the robustness to uncertainty without accounting for any probabilistic data. To demonstrate the method as a tool to better guide the long-term sustainable operation of the water supply system under uncertain future conditions, we applied the Info-Gap model to the Sea of Galilee (SoG) regional WSS, which is a significant part of the Israeli National Water System (INWS). For Israel, which is, like other Middle East semi-arid regions, prone to dry conditions and limited water availability, there are well-founded concerns that prolonged periods of drought lie ahead, as a consequence of the global climate change processes. This study contributes a management tool for decision making under deep uncertainty to improve the decision-making process and better adapt to unpredictable uncertain future conditions. We demonstrate how the IGDT could be formulated and used to analyze WSSs under different settings and demonstrate how decisions could be derived from the IGDT formulation. We also show a sensitivity analysis for the obtained solutions.

scholarly journals Screening for nonstationary analysis

Water Policy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (S1) ◽  
pp. 144-155
Author(s):  
Paul H. Kirshen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Data Collection ◽  
Detailed Analysis ◽  
Sequential Analysis ◽  
Adaptation Strategy ◽  
Deep Uncertainty ◽  
Water Resources Systems ◽  
Additional Information

Abstract Adjustments in the designs of water resources systems due to climate change and other nonstationarities are warranted because the benefits of effective adaptation are well recognized. Therefore, the time and resources invested in these analyses are well worth the effort. Before a major investment in an effort is made, however, it is reasonable to determine if the problem is of sufficient complexity or the value of additional information is high enough to warrant the inclusion of complex, sophisticated methods that explicitly include nonstationarity and associated decision-making under deep uncertainty. There exist several planning level conditions such as the lifetime of the project, its criticality, and its reversibility that may indicate detailed analysis is not needed. There are also sequential analysis and screening steps that can be applied to determine the complexity of the methodology needed. Finally, the use of decision analysis can also help determine if additional, detailed analysis, or data collection are necessary. The use of one or several of these methods should be considered as initial steps before undertaking a vulnerability assessment and developing an adaptation strategy for a water resources system.

Zanzibari Seaweed

2015 ◽  
pp. 132-158
Author(s):  
Nadra Hashim
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Dar Es Salaam ◽  
Economic Empowerment ◽  
General Development ◽  
Environmentally Responsible ◽  
History Of

Well before island nations began to consider rising ocean levels, a feature of global climate change (GCC), they have been concerned with the allocation of water resources. The purpose of this chapter is to examine the efforts of universities, in the Tanzanian cities of Zanzibar and Dar-Es-Salaam, to promote environmentally responsible entrepreneurial projects, which sustain women's economic empowerment, while advancing the general development of the broader community, in which they live. The object of this discussion is to examine the history of sea-weed production, and to examine how Zanzibar's seaweed farmers, who are largely women, have responded to adversity, and what, if anything, they can do to address current difficulties.

Research on Influences of Global Climate Change on Water Resources in the Yellow River Basin

2013 ◽  
Vol 726-731 ◽  
pp. 3480-3485
Author(s):  
Jian Liu ◽  
Jian Qing Zhai ◽  
Hui Tao ◽  
Xu Chun Ye
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Yellow River ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Yellow River Basin ◽  
Annual Variations ◽  
The Yellow River Basin

The study explored global climate change influence on water resources in Yellow River basin. A HBV hydrological model was developed to simulate the rainfall-runoff relationship at the region. Importing the CCLM climate model data, runoff at Lijin station was obtained in 2000-2039. The results indicate: (1) the annual average runoff depth is 1213mm, runoff in summer is larger than in spring,autumn and winter. The water resources decrease in three months (March, April and Jun) and increase in other months. (2) for inter-annual variations, the water resources increases slightly, and increase trend is about 64.8mm/10a. Water resources are insufficient in 200-2016, and rise gradually from 2017. (3) for different decades, the water resources are lack relatively in 2001-2010 and 2011-2020, and the differences are-59.4mm and-76.0mm respectively. While, the water resources in 2021-2030 and 2031-2039 are abundant, and the differences are 90.6mm and 88.8mm respectively.

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