scholarly journals Suburban Fertility and Metropolitan Cycles: Insights from European Cities

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 2181
Author(s):  
Jesús Rodrigo-Comino ◽  
Gianluca Egidi ◽  
Adele Sateriano ◽  
Stefano Poponi ◽  
Enrico Maria Mosconi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Urban Areas ◽  
Birth Rate ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Crude Birth Rate ◽  
Central Cities ◽  
European Continent ◽  
Metropolitan Regions ◽  
European Cities ◽  
Urban Rural ◽  
Definition Of

Being largely diversified along the urban–rural gradient, fertility gaps have demonstrated to fuel metropolitan expansion, contributing to natural population growth and social change. In this direction, population dynamics and economic transformations have continuously shaped urban cycles in Europe. Assuming suburban fertility to be a relevant engine of metropolitan growth, the present study investigates and discusses the intrinsic relationship between fertility transitions and urban expansion, focusing on European metropolitan regions. An average crude birth rate referring to the last decade (2013–2018) was estimated from official statistics at 671 Functional Urban Areas (FUAs, Eurostat Urban Audit definition) of 30 European countries, distinguishing ‘central cities’ from ‘suburban’ locations. Local contexts with a higher crude birth rate as compared with neighboring settlements were identified analyzing differential fertility levels in urban and suburban locations. By providing an indirect, comparative verification of the ‘suburban fertility hypothesis’ in European cities, the results of this study demonstrate how suburbanization has been basically associated to younger and larger families—and thus higher fertility levels—only in Eastern and Southern Europe. Birth rates that were higher in suburbs than in central cities were observed in 70% of Eastern European cities and 55% of Mediterranean cities. The reverse pattern was observed in Western (20%), Northern (25%) and Central (30%) Europe, suggesting that urban cycles in the European continent are not completely phased: most of Western, Central, and Northern European cities are experiencing re-urbanization after a long suburbanization wave. Demographic indicators are demonstrated to comprehensively delineate settlement patterns and socioeconomic trends along urban–suburban–rural gradients, giving insights on the differential metropolitan cycles between (and within) countries.

scholarly journals Characterization of European cities’ climate shift – an exploratory study based on climate analogues

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 428-452
Author(s):  
Guillaume Rohat ◽  
Stéphane Goyette ◽  
Johannes Flacke
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Public Health Services ◽  
European Continent ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Climate Shift ◽  
European Cities ◽  
The Future

Purpose Climate analogues have been extensively used in ecological studies to assess the shift of ecoregions due to climate change and the associated impacts on species survival and displacement, but they have hardly been applied to urban areas and their climate shift. This paper aims to use climate analogues to characterize the climate shift of cities and to explore its implications as well as potential applications of this approach. Design/methodology/approach The authors propose a methodology to match the current climate of cities with the future climate of other locations and to characterize cities’ climate shift velocity. Employing a sample of 90 European cities, the authors demonstrate the applicability of this method and characterize their climate shift from 1951 to 2100. Findings Results show that cities’ climate shift follows rather strictly north-to-south transects over the European continent and that the average southward velocity is expected to double throughout the twenty-first century. These rapid shifts will have direct implications for urban infrastructure, risk management and public health services. Originality/value These findings appear to be potentially useful for raising awareness of stakeholders and urban dwellers about the pace, magnitude and dynamics of climate change, supporting identification of the future climate impacts and vulnerabilities and implementation of readily available adaptation options, and strengthening cities’ cooperation within climate-related networks.

scholarly journals METHODOLOGY OF MODELLING: SIMULATION OF URBAN SCENARIOS

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
pp. 04
Author(s):  
Roberta Plangg Riegel ◽  
Darlan Daniel Alves ◽  
Leonardo Espíndola Birlem ◽  
Bruna Schmidt ◽  
Marco Antônio Siqueira Rodrigues ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cellular Automata ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
De Novo ◽  
Transition Probability ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Historical Analysis ◽  
Large Cities ◽  
Dinamica Ego ◽  
Study Case ◽  
Definition Of

ABSTRACTUrbanization has led to a series of problems in medium and large cities, resulting from a lack of planning and technologies to support decision making. This work aims to contribute to the methodology of modeling by cellular automata, aiming the study of the processes that condition the expansion of the urban area. Having as a study case of the municipality of Novo Hamburgo, RS, Brazil. For this purpose, the urban areas of 1967, 1977, 1987, 1997, 2009 and 2015 were used, totalling a historical analysis of 48 years, besides the thematic maps: Declivities, Hypsometric, Land Use, Water Resources and Road System. The compiled data was inserted in the environment of the platform Dinamica EGO, which is a free software that uses the system of Cellular Automata. The software employs a set of input maps composed of an initial landscape, a final landscape and a compilation of thematic variables that are combined from the definition of weights of evidence to generate the transition probability maps. The results showed similarity indexes of 0.9 for the first three models, 1977, 1987 and 1997, as well as 0.83 for the simulation of 2015. It was also possible to analyze the predominant factors for each expansion process, besides the simulation of areas of prognosis for short and medium term, that is, 5, 10 and 15 years.Keywords: Urban expansion. Simulation of scenarios. Cellular automata.RESUMOA urbanização alavancou uma série de problemas nas cidades de médio e grande porte, resultado da falta de planejamento e de tecnologias para apoiar a tomada de decisões. Neste sentido, este trabalho tem como objetivo contribuir para a metodologia de modelagem por autômatos celulares, visando o estudo dos processos que condicionam a expansão da mancha urbana. Tendo como estudo de caso o município de Novo Hamburgo, RS. Para tanto foram utilizadas as manchas urbana de 1967, 1977, 1987, 1997, 2009 e 2015, totalizando uma análise histórica de 48 anos, além dos mapas temáticos: Declividades, Hipsométrico, Uso do Solo, Recursos Hídricos e Sistema Viário. Os dados compilados foram inseridos no ambiente da plataforma Dinamica EGO, que é um software livre que utiliza o sistema de Autômatos Celulares. O software, emprega um conjunto de mapas de entrada, composto por uma paisagem inicial, uma paisagem final e um compilado de variáveis temáticas que são combinadas a partir da definição de pesos de evidência visando gerar os mapas de probabilidade de transição. Os resultados apresentaram índices de similaridade superior 0,9 para as três primeiras modelagem 1977, 1987 e 1997, além de 0,83 para a simulação de 2015. Também foi possível analisar os fatores predominantes para cada processo de expansão, além da simulação de manchas de prognóstico para curto e médio prazo, ou seja 5, 10 e 15 anos. Palavras-chave: Expansão urbana. Simulação de cenários. Autômatos celulares.

scholarly journals Prediction of source contributions to surface PM<sub>10</sub> concentrations in European cities: a case study for an episode in December 2016 using EMEP/MSC-W rv4.15 – Part.2 The local urban background contribution

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthieu Pommier
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Total Concentration ◽  
Grid Cells ◽  
Source Contribution ◽  
European Cities ◽  
Local Contribution ◽  
Concentration Changes ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Despite the progress made in the latest decades, air pollution is still the primary environmental cause of premature death in Europe. The urban population risks more likely to suffer to pollution related to high concentrations of air pollutants such as in particulate matter smaller than 10 µm (PM10). Since the composition of these particulates varies with space and time, the understanding of the origin is essential to determine the most efficient control strategies. A source contribution calculation allows to provide such information and thus to determine the geographical location of the sources (e.g. city or country) responsible for the air pollution episodes. In this study, the calculations provided by the regional EMEP/MSC-W rv4.15 model in a forecast mode, with a 0.25° longitude × 0.125° latitude resolution, and based on a scenario approach, have been explored. To do so, the work has focused on event occurring between 01 and 09 December 2016. This source contribution calculation aims at quantifying over 34 European cities the Local contribution of these PM10, i.e. from the city itself, on an hourly basis. Since the methodology used in the model is based on reduced anthropogenic emissions, compared to a reference run, the choice of the percentage in the reductions has been tested by using three different values (5 %, 15 % and 50 %). The definition of the Local contribution, and thus the definition of the area defining the cities is also an important parameter. The impact of the definition of these urban areas, for the studied cities, was investigated (i.e. 1 model grid cell, 9 grid cells and the grid cells covering the definition given by the Global Administrative Area – GADM). Using a 15 % reduction in the emission and the use of larger cities for our source contribution calculation (e.g. 9 grid cells and GADM), help to reduce the non-linearity in the concentration changes. This non-linearity is observed in the mismatch between the total concentration and the sum of the concentrations from different calculated sources. When this non-linearity is observed, it impacts the NO3−, NH4+ and H2O concentrations. However, the mean non-linearity represents only less than 2 % of the total modelled PM10 calculated by the system. During the studied episode, it was found that 20 % of the predicted PM10 had a Local origin, essentially composed of primary components. 60 % of the hourly PM10 concentrations predicted by the model came from the countries in the regional domain, and they were essentially composed of NO3−. The rest of the PM10 was mainly due to natural sources. It was also shown that the Central European cities were mainly impacted by the surrounding countries while the cities located a little away from the rest of the other European countries (e.g. Oslo and Lisbon) had larger Local contribution. The usefulness of the forecasting tool has also been illustrated with an example in Paris, since the system has been able to predict a local polluted event on 02 December 2016 as documented by local authorities.

scholarly journals Numerical Study of the Interaction between Oasis and Urban Areas within an Arid Mountains-Desert System in Xinjiang, China

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 85
Author(s):  
Peng Cai ◽  
Rafiq Hamdi ◽  
Huili He ◽  
Geping Luo ◽  
Jin Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Numerical Study ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Maximum Effect ◽  
Local Circulation ◽  
Urban Rural ◽  
The Impact

The rapid oasis expansion and urbanization that occurred in Xinjiang province (China) in the last decades have greatly modified the land surface energy balance and influenced the local circulation under the arid mountains-plain background system. In this study, we first evaluated the ALARO regional climate model coupled to the land surface scheme SURFEX at 4 km resolution using 53 national climatological stations and 5 automatic weather stations. We found that the model correctly simulates daily and hourly variation of 2 m temperature and relative humidity. A 4-day clear sky period has been chosen to study both local atmospheric circulations and their mutual interaction. Observations and simulations both show that a low-level divergence over oasis appears between 19:00 and 21:00 Beijing Time when the background mountain-plain wind system is weak. The model simulates a synergistic interaction between the oasis-desert breeze and urban-rural breeze from 16:00 until 22:00 with a maximum effect at 20:00 when the downdraft over oasis (updraft over urban) areas increases by 0.8 (0.4) Pa/s. The results show that the oasis expansion decreases the nocturnal urban heat island in the city of Urumqi by 0.8 °C, while the impact of urban expansion on the oasis cold island is negligible.

scholarly journals Uncovering Demographic Trends and Recent Urban Expansion in Metropolitan Regions: A Paradigmatic Case Study

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 3937 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rares Halbac-Cotoara-Zamfir ◽  
Gianluca Egidi ◽  
Enrico Maria Mosconi ◽  
Stefano Poponi ◽  
Ahmed Alhuseen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Urban Areas ◽  
Ad Hoc ◽  
Local Development ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Metropolitan Regions ◽  
Knowledge Framework ◽  
Inner Cities ◽  
Demographic Indicators ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Peripheral Areas

While urbanization trends have been characterized for a long time by deconcentration of inner cities with expansion of low-density settlements, economic repolarization leading to re-urbanization and recovery of central districts are now counterbalancing population shrinkage in compact urban areas and slowing down suburban growth. In this context, the recent demographic evolution of a large metropolis such as Athens (Greece)—following expansion, crisis, and a more subtle economic recovery—may reveal original relationships between form and functions at the base of recent urban growth. Based on an exploratory analysis of demographic indicators on a metropolitan and urban scale, the present study provides an updated and integrated knowledge framework that confirms and integrates the most recent urban trends in southern Europe. Documenting the emergence of more individualized paths of urban expansion at the local scale (recovery of the historic center, shrinkage of semicentral neighborhoods, ‘reverse gentrification’ of disadvantaged peripheral areas, late suburbanization of accessible peripheral areas), results of the present study justify an ad hoc analysis of metropolitan growth based on demographic indicators as a proxy for sustainable land management and local development.

Underreporting of Births and Infant Deaths in Rural China: Evidence from Field Research in One County of Northern China

1998 ◽  
Vol 155 ◽  
pp. 637-655 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Giovanna Merli
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Birth Rate ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Crude Birth Rate ◽  
Field Research ◽  
Northern China ◽  
Natural Increase ◽  
Human Reproduction

Between the beginning of the 1950s and the early 1970s, China, like many other countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America, experienced rapid population growth. This was due mainly to a dramatic mortality decline not offset by any decline in the birth rate. In 1970, China had a crude birth rate of 33.43 (per 1,000), a crude death rate of 7.60 (per 1,000) and a rate of natural increase of 25.83. “Population growth” was identified as a fundamental obstacle to economic development, and the stage was set for large-scale state interventions in the process of human reproduction. The apotheosis of this intervention was the introduction, in 1979, of the One Child Policy, which was successfully implemented in the urban areas. In rural areas, policies promoting later marriage, one child – maximum two – per couple, and greater spacing of those births that are permitted contributed to the swift fertility decline witnessed over the last three decades. In 1996 China's birth and death rates were reported at 16.98 per 1,000 and 6.56 per 1,000 respectively and the population was growing at 10.42 per 1,000.

scholarly journals Land quality and the city: Monitoring urban growth and land take in 76 Southern European metropolitan areas

2016 ◽  
Vol 45 (4) ◽  
pp. 691-712 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luca Salvati ◽  
Ilaria Tombolini ◽  
Achille Ippolito ◽  
Margherita Carlucci
Keyword(s):  
Urban Growth ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
High Quality ◽  
Land Quality ◽  
Metropolitan Regions ◽  
Urban Containment ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The City

Urban expansion determines socioeconomic and environmental changes with unpredictable impacts on peri-urban land, especially in ecologically fragile areas. The present study assesses the impact of dense and, respectively, discontinuous urban expansion on high-quality land consumption in 76 metropolitan regions of Southern Europe. Land quality indicators and land-use maps were considered together with the aim to analyze urban growth and land take processes in Portugal, Spain, Southern France, Italy and Greece. Differences in the rate of selective land take (high- vs. low-quality soils) were observed at the metropolitan scale depending on the size of urban regions, the average level of land quality and the percentage of built-up areas and cropland in the total landscape. Discontinuous residential settlements were more frequently developed on high-quality soils in respect to both dense and mixed residential settlements and service settlements. Urbanization – especially discontinuous urban expansion – consumed high-quality land mainly in Spain and Greece. The approach presented in this paper may inform joint policies for urban containment and the preservation of high-quality soils in peri-urban areas.

scholarly journals Wage Premiums Across the Rural-Urban Continuum: What Constitutes a “Good Job”?

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 63
Author(s):  
Bonnie Elizabeth Bounds
Keyword(s):  
Population Size ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Size Class ◽  
Wage Premiums ◽  
Urban Rural ◽  
Urbanized Areas ◽  
Us Counties ◽  
Urban And Rural Areas ◽  
Definition Of

Much like how beauty is in the eye of the beholder, there is no single definition of what constitutes a “good job.”  What makes a given job “good” in relation to other jobs can differ in rural vs. urban areas: a job that pays relatively well compared to other available jobs in a rural area may not compare as favorably in more urbanized areas, and vice versa.  While plenty of research has been done regarding wage differences in urban and rural areas, most studies have focused on how wages vary across the urban-rural continuum within specific jobs, with relatively little attention paid to how wage premiums can vary across occupations within particular communities.  This study examines variations in wage premiums across five major occupational categories in metropolitan, micropolitan, and noncore US counties and tests whether population size and levels of education are good predictors of wage premiums in each size class.  The results indicate that certain categories of occupations do pay relatively better or worse according to the degree of rurality, although population size and education were not exceptionally good at predicting wage premiums.

scholarly journals Identification of rural landscape classes through a GIS clustering method

2013 ◽  
Vol 44 (2s) ◽  
Author(s):  
Irene Diti ◽  
Daniele Torreggiani ◽  
Patrizia Tassinari
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Planning Process ◽  
Urban System ◽  
Rural Landscape ◽  
Suburban Areas ◽  
Italian Case ◽  
Urban Rural ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Agricultural Areas

The paper presents a methodology aimed at supporting the rural planning process. The analysis of the state of the art of local and regional policies focused on rural and suburban areas, and the study of the scientific literature in the field of spatial analysis methodologies, have allowed the definition of the basic concept of the research. The proposed method, developed in a GIS, is based on spatial metrics selected and defined to cover various agricultural, environmental, and socio-economic components. The specific goal of the proposed methodology is to identify homogeneous extra-urban areas through their objective characterization at different scales. Once areas with intermediate urban-rural characters have been identified, the analysis is then focused on the more detailed definition of periurban agricultural areas. The synthesis of the results of the analysis of the various landscape components is achieved through an original interpretative key which aims to quantify the potential impacts of rural areas on the urban system. This paper presents the general framework of the methodology and some of the main results of its first implementation through an Italian case study.

scholarly journals Prediction of source contributions to urban background PM<sub>10</sub> concentrations in European cities: a case study for an episode in December 2016 using EMEP/MSC-W rv4.15 – Part 2: The city contribution

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (6) ◽  
pp. 4143-4158
Author(s):  
Matthieu Pommier
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Total Concentration ◽  
Grid Cells ◽  
Source Contribution ◽  
European Cities ◽  
Concentration Changes ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The City

Abstract. Despite the progress made in the latest decades, air pollution is still the primary environmental cause of premature death in Europe. The urban population risks more likely to suffer to pollution related to high concentrations of air pollutants, such as in particulate matter smaller than 10 µm (PM10). Since the composition of these particulates varies with space and time, the understanding of the origin is essential to determine the most efficient control strategies. A source contribution calculation allows us to provide such information and thus to determine the geographical location of the sources (e.g. city or country) responsible for the air pollution episodes. In this study, the calculations provided by the regional European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme/Meteorological Synthesizing Centre – West (EMEP/MSC-W) rv4.15 model in a forecast mode, with a 0.25∘ longitude × 0.125∘ latitude resolution, and based on a scenario approach, have been explored. To do so, the work has focused on event occurring between 1 and 9 December 2016. This source contribution calculation aims at quantifying over 34 European cities, the “city” contribution of these PM10, i.e. from the city itself, on an hourly basis. Since the methodology used in the model is based on reduced anthropogenic emissions, compared to a reference run, the choice of the percentage in the reductions has been tested by using three different values (5 %, 15 %, and 50 %). The definition of the “city” contribution, and thus the definition of the area defining the cities is also an important parameter. The impact of the definition of these urban areas, for the studied cities, was investigated (i.e. one model grid cell, nine grid cells and the grid cells covering the definition given by the global administrative area – GADM). Using a 15 % reduction in the emission and larger cities for our source contribution calculation (e.g. nine grid cells and GADM) helps to reduce the non-linearity in the concentration changes. This non-linearity is observed in the mismatch between the total concentration and the sum of the concentrations from different calculated sources. When this non-linearity is observed, it impacts the NO3-, NH4+, and H2O concentrations. However, the mean non-linearity represents only less than 2 % of the total modelled PM10 calculated by the system. During the studied episode, it was found that 20 % of the surface predicted PM10 had been from the “city”, essentially composed of primary components. In total, 60 % of the hourly PM10 concentrations predicted by the model came from the countries in the regional domain, and they were essentially composed of NO3- (by ∼ 35  %). The two other secondary inorganic aerosols are also important components of this “rest of Europe” contribution, since SO42- and NH4+ represent together almost 30 % of this contribution. The rest of the PM10 was mainly due to natural sources. It was also shown that the central European cities were mainly impacted by the surrounding countries while the cities located a bit away from the rest of the other European countries (e.g. Oslo and Lisbon) had larger “city” contributions. The usefulness of the forecasting tool has also been illustrated with an example in Paris, since the system has been able to predict the primary sources of a local polluted event on 1–2 December 2016, as documented by local authorities.

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