scholarly journals Resilience–Vulnerability Analysis: A Decision-Making Framework for Systems Assessment

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (22) ◽  
pp. 9306
Author(s):  
Nikolaos A. Skondras ◽  
Demetrios E. Tsesmelis ◽  
Constantina G. Vasilakou ◽  
Christos A. Karavitis

The terms ‘resilience’ and ‘vulnerability’ have been widely used, with multiple interpretations in a plethora of disciplines. Such a variety may easily become confusing, and could create misconceptions among the different users. Policy makers who are bound to make decisions in key spatial and temporal points may especially suffer from these misconceptions. The need for decisions may become even more pressing in times of crisis, where the weaknesses of a system are exposed, and immediate actions to enhance the systemic strengths should be made. The analysis framework proposed in the current effort, and demonstrated in hypothetical forest fire cases, tries to focus on the combined use of simplified versions of the resilience and vulnerability concepts. Their relations and outcomes are also explored, in an effort to provide decision makers with an initial assessment of the information required to deal with complex systems. It is believed that the framework may offer some service towards the development of a more integrated and applicable tool, in order to further expand the concepts of resilience and vulnerability. Additionally, the results of the framework can be used as inputs in other decision making techniques and approaches. This increases the added value of the framework as a tool.

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Dagenais

Abstract Background Despite the increased emphasis placed on the use of evidence for policy development, relatively few initiatives have been developed to support evidence-informed decision-making, especially in West Africa. Moreover, studies examining the conditions under which policy-makers use research-based evidence are still scarce, but they show that their attitudes and opinions about research are one of the main determinants of such use. In February 2017, Burkina Faso’s Minister of Health planned to create a unit to promote evidence-informed decision-making within the ministry. Before the unit was set up, documenting the attitudes towards research at the highest levels of his Ministry appeared profitable to the unit’s planning. Method Individual interviews were conducted by the author with 14 actors positioned to consider evidence during decision-making from the Burkina Faso’s Minister of health cabinet. An interview grid was used to explore several themes such as attitudes towards research, obstacles and facilitators to research use, example of research use in decision-making and finally, ways to increase decision-makers’ participation in knowledge transfer activities. Interviews were partially transcribed and analysed by the author. Results The results show a mixed attitude towards research and relatively little indication of research use reported by respondents. Important obstacles were identified: evidence inaccessibility, lack of implementation guidelines, absence of clear communication strategy and studies’ lack of relevance for decision-making. Many suggestions were proposed such as raising awareness, improving access and research communication and prioritizing interactions with researchers. Respondents agree with the low participation of decision-makers in knowledge transfer activities: more leadership from the senior officials was suggested and greater awareness of the importance of their presence. Conclusions The conclusion presents avenues for reflection and action to increase the potential impact of the knowledge transfer unit planned within the Ministry of Health of Burkina Faso. This innovative initiative will be impactful if the obstacles identified in this study and policy-makers’ preferences and needs are taken into account during its development and implementation.


2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thais Cristina Sampaio Machado ◽  
Plácido Rogerio Pinheiro ◽  
Isabelle Tamanini

The decision making is present in every activity of the human world, either in simple day-by-day problems or in complex situations inside of an organization. Sometimes emotions and reasons become hard to separate; therefore decision support methods were created to help decision makers to make complex decisions, and Decision Support Systems (DSS) were created to aid the application of such methods. The paper presents the development of a new tool, which reproduces the procedure to apply the Verbal Decision Analysis (VDA) methodology ORCLASS. The tool, called OrclassWeb, is software that supports the process of the mentioned DSS method and the paper provides proof of concepts, that which presents its reliability with ORCLASS.


2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 238146831879962
Author(s):  
Irina Cleemput ◽  
Stephan Devriese ◽  
Laurence Kohn ◽  
Carl Devos ◽  
Janine van Til ◽  
...  

Background. Multi-criteria decision analysis can improve the legitimacy of health care reimbursement decisions by taking societal preferences into account when weighting decision criteria. This study measures the relative importance of health care coverage criteria according to the Belgian general public and policy makers. Criteria are structured into three domains: therapeutic need, societal need, and new treatments’ added value. Methods. A sample of 4,288 citizens and 161 policy makers performed a discrete choice experiment. Data were analyzed using multinomial logistic regression analysis. Level-independent criteria weights were determined using the log-likelihood method. Results. Both the general public and policy makers gave the highest weight to quality of life in the appraisal of therapeutic need (0.43 and 0.53, respectively). The general public judged life expectancy (0.14) as less important than inconvenience of current treatment (0.43), unlike decision makers (0.32 and 0.15). The general public gave more weight to “impact of a disease on public expenditures” (0.65) than to “prevalence of the disease” (0.56) when appraising societal need, whereas decision makers’ weights were 0.44 and 0.56, respectively. When appraising added value, the general public gave similar weights to “impact on quality of life” and “impact on prevalence” (0.37 and 0.36), whereas decision makers judged “impact on quality of life” (0.39) more important than “impact on prevalence” (0.29). Both gave the lowest weight to impact on life expectancy (0.14 and 0.21). Limitations. Comparisons between the general public and policy makers should be treated with caution because the policy makers’ sample size was small. Conclusion. Societal preferences can be measured and used as decision criteria weights in multi-criteria decision analysis. This cannot replace deliberation but can improve the transparency of health care coverage decision processes.


1965 ◽  
Vol 59 (2) ◽  
pp. 365-378 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ole R. Holsti

This paper will employ techniques of content analysis to examine some features of top-level communications between national policy makers during a momentous period of stress. It is concerned with the effects of stress upon: (1) the manner in which decision-makers perceive time as a factor in their formulation of policy; (2) the contrasting ways in which they view policy alternatives for their own nations, for their allies, and for their adversaries; and (3) the flow of communications among them.Specifically, the following hypotheses will be tested with data from the 1914 crisis leading up to the Great War in Europe:Hypothesis 1. As stress increases in a crisis situation:(a) time will be perceived as an increasingly salient factor in decision-making.(b) decision-makers will become increasingly concerned with the immediate rather than the distant future.


2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (13) ◽  
pp. 4614
Author(s):  
João Carneiro ◽  
Diogo Martinho ◽  
Patrícia Alves ◽  
Luís Conceição ◽  
Goreti Marreiros ◽  
...  

To support Group Decision-Making processes when participants are dispersed is a complex task. The biggest challenges are related to communication limitations that impede decision-makers to take advantage of the benefits associated with face-to-face Group Decision-Making processes. Several approaches that intend to aid dispersed groups attaining decisions have been applied to Group Decision Support Systems. However, strategies to support decision-makers in reasoning, understanding the reasons behind the different recommendations, and promoting the decision quality are very limited. In this work, we propose a Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis Framework that intends to overcome those limitations through a set of functionalities that can be used to support decision-makers attaining more informed, consistent, and satisfactory decisions. These functionalities are exposed through a microservice, which is part of a Consensus-Based Group Decision Support System and is used by autonomous software agents to support decision-makers according to their specific needs/interests. We concluded that the proposed framework greatly facilitates the definition of important procedures, allowing decision-makers to take advantage of deciding as a group and to understand the reasons behind the different recommendations and proposals.


Author(s):  
Liv Merete Nielsen ◽  
Eva Lutnæs ◽  
Mia Porko-Hudd ◽  
Úrsula Bravo ◽  
Catalina Cortés ◽  
...  

Norwegian research group Design Literacy at Oslo Metropolitan University (OsloMet) which is led by professor Liv Merete Nielsen has initiative to this paper track. The paper track was accompanied by a workshop. Design Literacy can be regarded as a catalyst for a move towards a better citizens participation in innovative design processes. By educating the general public to become design literate, there is a chance to support critical innovation and a possible move towards sustainable societies (Stegall, 2006). The challenge is to articulate content, performance and continuity for a critical decision-making process and how this influence critical innovation and design education at large. The concept ‘Design Literacy’ addresses the complex matter of objectives, content and practices in design processes and education. Research on multiple literacies has evoked considerable debate and redefinition within several areas of educational research (Coiro et al. 2008); the understanding of literacy is no longer bound to the ability to read and write verbal text or numeracy. Design Literacy (Nielsen and Brænne, 2013) are among newly coined literacies. Design Literacy is connected both to the creation and understanding of design innovation in a broad sense. In today’s mostly artificial world, the Design Literacy is regarded as a competence not only for the professional designer, but also for the general public in their position as citizens, consumers, users and decision makers in innovative processes. Designed artefacts and services influence our lives and values, both from personal and societal perspectives. Designers, decision makers and investors hold different positions in the design process, but they all make choices that will influence new innovations and our future. In order to solve crucial global challenges, designers and investors must cooperate; for this purpose, we argue that design literacy is necessary for all. We argue that the Design Literacies can support practices associated with innovation, democratic participation in design processes, developing and enacting ethical responsibilities, and understanding and supporting sustainable aspects of production and consumption. The track called for researchers to explore the following points: How development of Design Literacy can support critical innovation and sustainable issues Progressions in scaffolding Design Literacies from a pre-school to a university level The potential of Design Literacy to support collaborative and experimental approaches of projects between: investors/designers, general public/designers, children/designers How design education for the general public can represent both a foundation for professional design education and a prequalification for lay persons’ competence for decision-making and critical innovation How might Design Literacy influence sustainability issues in society? What are the challenges of professional design, when everyone wants to design? Research submnited for this track addressing the points above have been useful as a point of departure for the Design Literacy workshop and the creation of the Design Literacy International network. The papers have also been useful for the promotion of critical innovation and to inform policy and for educational implementation. The importance lies in the needs to better inform design education itself, to improve the approach of design educators, and to educate reflective citizens, policy makers, entrepreneurs and consumers in perspective of critical innovation.


Marketing ZFP ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 41 (3) ◽  
pp. 33-47
Author(s):  
Michaela Grösch ◽  
Martina Steul-Fischer

Option framing can be divided into additive and subtractive framing. In additive framing, individuals are asked to add desired options to a base model, i. e., to a core product which does not include any extras, whereas in subtractive framing, individuals are asked to deselect undesired options from a fully loaded model, i. e., a product that does already include all possible extras (Biswas and Grau 2008; Park et al. 2000). In additive framing, individuals must take action if they want to choose the option, e. g., by checking a box in an online configuration. In subtractive framing, individuals find preselected options, and they receive a preselected option unless they actively decide against it, e. g., by unchecking a box in an online configuration (Brown and Krishna 2004; Park et al. 2000). While option framing has received considerable attention with regard to decision making for the self (e. g., Biswas and Grau 2008; Herrmann et al. 2013; Levin et al. 2002; Park et al. 2000; Park and Kim 2012), no researchers have focused on option framing in self-other decision-making contexts. The aim of this paper is to examine the influence of option framing on decision making either for oneself or on behalf of another person. In two studies, we investigate choice behaviour for oneself or on behalf of someone else, namely ones mother, when either one option (Study 1) or more options (Study 2) are presented in additive and subtractive framing. The effect of option framing on decision making for a family member is a relevant question for firms and policy makers since it helps to clarify how an individual’s benefits and expenditures can be influenced by the way a choice is presented when deciding for someone else. In accordance with previous studies (e. g., Biswas and Grau 2008; Levin et al. 2002; Park and Kim 2012), we found the option framing effect when individuals decided on insurances for themselves; i. e., individuals were more likely to choose an option in subtractive framing than in additive framing. When individuals were asked to decide on behalf of their mother, we could not prove an option framing effect when a single option was considered (Study 1). When several options were available (Study 2), the option framing effect emerged; decision makers chose more options for their mother in subtractive framing than in additive framing. We believe that having the opportunity to vary the number of options is the underlying reason. In both studies, individuals deciding on behalf of their mother had a greater tendency to add an option in additive framing than did those deciding for themselves. The greater likelihood of choosing an option in additive framing when deciding for the mother corresponds to our assumption, derived from social values analysis, that decision makers engage in risk-minimizing behaviour as the socially preferred behaviour for proxy decision making. In both studies, no choice differences could be found for subtractive framing. Accepting the insurance option and the number of accepted insurance options remained stable when individuals decided for themselves or for their mother. We assume that for both framing, individuals who decided for their mother acted according to social values and therefore were likely to choose protection for their mother. Moreover, there might be a kind of ceiling effect for insurance decisions because some individuals either may not expect an insurance event to occur for themselves or their mother or may have a general aversion to insurance. Our results add to a growing body of evidence that decision making for others is more dependent on social norms than is decision making for oneself.


2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (Supplement_2) ◽  
pp. 1366-1366
Author(s):  
Solomon Eshetu Hailu ◽  
Tesfaye Bekele ◽  
Namukolo Covic ◽  
Desalegn Kuche ◽  
Beza Teshome ◽  
...  

Abstract Objectives Despite much nutrition research conducted in Ethiopia, none has described existing opportunities for synergy or possible missed opportunities to use research to inform policy and program decisions to foster accelerated progress. The study aimed to describe prevailing processes on evidence use in formulating nutrition policy and program decisions and identify potential barriers and opportunities for evidence-based decision-making for nutrition for Ethiopia's context. Methods In 2017, 29 purposively selected key informants (KIs) were interviewed. They were identified using a consultative stakeholder mapping workshop and represented National Nutrition Program coordinators, key actors in government sectors, program coordinators from selected local and international NGOs, local and international universities and research institutes involved in nutrition research and key actors in policy decision-making. A framework analysis including identifying themes, coding, indexing, charting, mapping and interpretation was used. A validation workshop discussed findings and added perspectives to interpretation. Results The KIs perceived that demand for evidence from the Ethiopian government had been increasing over time. Majority referred to poor research quality as a barrier for using research in decision-making processes. Other challenges identified included limited cross-linkage, coordination gaps between researchers and decision makers, and inadequate translation of research evidence into meaningful information for policy makers. Availability of different forums, research dissemination conferences and suitable institutional structures that enable research and evidence dissemination were considered to be opportunities that should be leveraged to inform policy making. Conclusions The quality of research, and of collaborative engagement between those who produce evidence and decision makers who formulate policies need to be strengthened. Regular evidence dissemination events and publication of action oriented easy to read briefs could increase use of evidence among nutrition policy makers. Funding Sources Ethiopian Public Health Institute and Evidence-informed Decision-making in Health and Nutrition Network.


2005 ◽  
Vol 24 (4) ◽  
pp. 713-736
Author(s):  
Louis Constans

This paper attempts to clarify the basic issues underlying the discussion of citizens' participation in public decision-making on energy policy and projects. It questions the assumption that such participation is possible, and recalls that energy policy is at present, at least in the French context, an area of conflict between government and various interest groups. It warns of possible misunderstandings due to the lack of an agreed definition of participation. Three major points are made in this connection. The first is that the usual instruments of citizens' participation in decision-making (public inquiries, parliamentary debates, etc.) have, for a number of technical and institutional reasons, become largely irrelevant as regards energy matters — as indeed in several other areas of policy. The second is that decision-making on energy policy and projects really allows for very little freedom of choice on the part of decision-makers : such freedom rarely goes beyond the setting of time-frames for the achievement of goals imposed by circumstances. Finally, it is suggested that invocation of the ideals of democracy is unhelpful : what is realistically possible amounts only to a greater openness and objectivity in decision-making processes aimed at giving citizens, not an illusory power to decide themselves or to block decisions by policy-makers, but the capacity to forewarn the latter about public feelings on energy issues.


2016 ◽  
Vol 20 (8) ◽  
pp. 3109-3128 ◽  
Author(s):  
Louise Arnal ◽  
Maria-Helena Ramos ◽  
Erin Coughlan de Perez ◽  
Hannah Louise Cloke ◽  
Elisabeth Stephens ◽  
...  

Abstract. Probabilistic hydro-meteorological forecasts have over the last decades been used more frequently to communicate forecast uncertainty. This uncertainty is twofold, as it constitutes both an added value and a challenge for the forecaster and the user of the forecasts. Many authors have demonstrated the added (economic) value of probabilistic over deterministic forecasts across the water sector (e.g. flood protection, hydroelectric power management and navigation). However, the richness of the information is also a source of challenges for operational uses, due partially to the difficulty in transforming the probability of occurrence of an event into a binary decision. This paper presents the results of a risk-based decision-making game on the topic of flood protection mitigation, called "How much are you prepared to pay for a forecast?". The game was played at several workshops in 2015, which were attended by operational forecasters and academics working in the field of hydro-meteorology. The aim of this game was to better understand the role of probabilistic forecasts in decision-making processes and their perceived value by decision-makers. Based on the participants' willingness-to-pay for a forecast, the results of the game show that the value (or the usefulness) of a forecast depends on several factors, including the way users perceive the quality of their forecasts and link it to the perception of their own performances as decision-makers.


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