scholarly journals Parametric Assessment of Trend Test Power in a Changing Environment

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 3889
Author(s):  
Andrea Gioia ◽  
Maria Francesca Bruno ◽  
Vincenzo Totaro ◽  
Vito Iacobellis
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Strong Dependence ◽  
Generalized Extreme Value Distribution ◽  
Monte Carlo Experiment ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Test Power ◽  
Special Cases ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Position Parameter

In the context of climate and environmental change assessment, the use of probabilistic models in which the parameters of a given distribution may vary in accordance with time has reinforced the need for appropriate procedures to recognize the “statistical significance” of trends in data series arising from stochastic processes. This paper introduces a parametric methodology, which exploits a measure based on the Akaike Information Criterion (AICΔ), and a Rescaled version of the Generalized Extreme Value distribution, in which a linear deterministic trend in the position parameter is accounted for. A Monte Carlo experiment was set up with the generation of nonstationary synthetic series characterized by different sample lengths and covering a wide range of the shape and scale parameters. The performances of statistical tests based on the parametric AICΔ and the non-parametric Mann-Kendall measures were evaluated and compared with reference to observed ranges of annual maxima of precipitation, peak flow, and wind speed. Results allow for sensitivity analysis of the test power and show a strong dependence on the trend coefficient and the L-Coefficient of Variation of the parent distribution from the upper-bounded to the heavy-tailed special cases. An analysis of the sample variability of the position parameter is also presented, based on the same generation sets.

scholarly journals Assessing the Impacts of Proximity Sounding Criteria on the Climatology of Significant Tornado Environments

2010 ◽  
Vol 25 (3) ◽  
pp. 921-930 ◽  
Author(s):  
Corey K. Potvin ◽  
Kimberly L. Elmore ◽  
Steven J. Weiss
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Large Set ◽  
Mesoscale Variability ◽  
Feedback Process ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Parameter Distributions

Abstract Proximity sounding studies typically seek to optimize several trade-offs that involve somewhat arbitrary definitions of how to define a “proximity sounding.” More restrictive proximity criteria, which presumably produce results that are more characteristic of the near-storm environment, typically result in smaller sample sizes that can reduce the statistical significance of the results. Conversely, the use of broad proximity criteria will typically increase the sample size and the apparent robustness of the statistical analysis, but the sounding data may not necessarily be representative of near-storm environments, given the presence of mesoscale variability in the atmosphere. Previous investigations have used a wide range of spatial and temporal proximity criteria to analyze severe storm environments. However, the sensitivity of storm environment climatologies to the proximity definition has not yet been rigorously examined. In this study, a very large set (∼1200) of proximity soundings associated with significant tornado reports is used to generate distributions of several parameters typically used to characterize severe weather environments. Statistical tests are used to assess the sensitivity of the parameter distributions to the proximity criteria. The results indicate that while soundings collected too far in space and time from significant tornadoes tend to be more representative of the larger-scale environment than of the storm environment, soundings collected too close to the tornado also tend to be less representative due to the convective feedback process. The storm environment itself is thus optimally sampled at an intermediate spatiotemporal range referred to here as the Goldilocks zone. Implications of these results for future proximity sounding studies are discussed.

scholarly journals COVID-19 and Its Symptoms’ Panoply: A Case-Control Study of 919 Suspected Cases in Locked-Down Ovar, Portugal

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Regina Sá ◽  
Tiago Pinho-Bandeira ◽  
Guilherme Queiroz ◽  
Joana Matos ◽  
João Duarte Ferreira ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Case Control Study ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Case Control ◽  
Case Definition ◽  
Suspected Case ◽  
Risk Characteristics ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Control Study

<b><i>Background:</i></b> Ovar was the first Portuguese municipality to declare active community transmission of SARS-CoV-2, with total lockdown decreed on March 17, 2020. This context provided conditions for a large-scale testing strategy, allowing a referral system considering other symptoms besides the ones that were part of the case definition (fever, cough, and dyspnea). This study aims to identify other symptoms associated with COVID-19 since it may clarify the pre-test probability of the occurrence of the disease. <b><i>Methods:</i></b> This case-control study uses primary care registers between March 29 and May 10, 2020 in Ovar municipality. Pre-test clinical and exposure-risk characteristics, reported by physicians, were collected through a form, and linked with their laboratory result. <b><i>Results:</i></b> The study population included a total of 919 patients, of whom 226 (24.6%) were COVID-19 cases and 693 were negative for SARS-CoV-2. Only 27.1% of the patients reporting contact with a confirmed or suspected case tested positive. In the multivariate analysis, statistical significance was obtained for headaches (OR 0.558), odynophagia (OR 0.273), anosmia (OR 2.360), and other symptoms (OR 2.157). The interaction of anosmia and odynophagia appeared as possibly relevant with a borderline statistically significant OR of 3.375. <b><i>Conclusion:</i></b> COVID-19 has a wide range of symptoms. Of the myriad described, the present study highlights anosmia itself and calls for additional studies on the interaction between anosmia and odynophagia. Headaches and odynophagia by themselves are not associated with an increased risk for the disease. These findings may help clinicians in deciding when to test, especially when other diseases with similar symptoms are more prevalent, namely in winter.

scholarly journals Impact of Diagnosed and Undiagnosed Respiratory Pseudomonas on VAP and VAE During Long-Term Acute Care

2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (S1) ◽  
pp. s258-s259
Author(s):  
James Harrigan ◽  
Ebbing Lautenbach ◽  
Emily Reesey ◽  
Magda Wernovsky ◽  
Pam Tolomeo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Bacterial Community ◽  
Acute Care ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Rrna Gene ◽  
Care Hospital ◽  
16S Sequencing ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Impact

Background: Clinically diagnosed ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) is common in the long-term acute-care hospital (LTACH) setting and may contribute to adverse ventilator-associated events (VAEs). Pseudomonas aeruginosa is a common causative organism of VAP. We evaluated the impact of respiratory P. aeruginosa colonization and bacterial community dominance, both diagnosed and undiagnosed, on subsequent P. aeruginosa VAP and VAE events during long-term acute care. Methods: We enrolled 83 patients on LTACH admission for ventilator weaning, performed longitudinal sampling of endotracheal aspirates followed by 16S rRNA gene sequencing (Illumina HiSeq), and bacterial community profiling (QIIME2). Statistical analysis was performed with R and Stan; mixed-effects models were fit to relate the abundance of respiratory Psa on admission to clinically diagnosed VAP and VAE events. Results: Of the 83 patients included, 12 were diagnosed with P. aeruginosa pneumonia during the 14 days prior to LTACH admission (known P. aeruginosa), and 22 additional patients received anti–P. aeruginosa antibiotics within 48 hours of admission (suspected P. aeruginosa); 49 patients had no known or suspected P. aeruginosa (unknown P. aeruginosa). Among the known P. aeruginosa group, all 12 patients had P. aeruginosa detectable by 16S sequencing, with elevated admission P. aeruginosa proportional abundance (median, 0.97; IQR, 0.33–1). Among the suspected P. aeruginosa group, all 22 patients had P. aeruginosa detectable by 16S sequencing, with a wide range of admission P. aeruginosa proportional abundance (median, 0.0088; IQR, 0.00012–0.31). Of the 49 patients in the unknown group, 47 also had detectable respiratory Psa, and many had high P. aeruginosa proportional abundance at admission (median, 0.014; IQR, 0.00025–0.52). Incident P. aeruginosa VAP was observed within 30 days in 4 of the known P. aeruginosa patients (33.3%), 5 of the suspected P. aeruginosa patients (22.7%), and 8 of the unknown P. aeruginosa patients (16.3%). VAE was observed within 30 days in 1 of the known P. aeruginosa patients (8.3%), 2 of the suspected P. aeruginosa patients (9.1%), and 1 of the unknown P. aeruginosa patients (2%). Admission P. aeruginosa abundance was positively associated with VAP and VAE risk in all groups, but the association only achieved statistical significance in the unknown group (type S error <0.002 for 30-day VAP and <0.011 for 30-day VAE). Conclusions: We identified a high prevalence of unrecognized respiratory P. aeruginosa colonization among patients admitted to LTACH for weaning from mechanical ventilation. The admission P. aeruginosa proportional abundance was strongly associated with increased risk of incident P. aeruginosa VAP among these patients.Funding: NoneDisclosures: None

scholarly journals Two-Segment Foot Model for the Biomechanical Analysis of Squat

2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
E. Panero ◽  
L. Gastaldi ◽  
W. Rapp
Keyword(s):  
Body Weight ◽  
Inverse Dynamics ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Lower Limbs ◽  
Biomechanical Analysis ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Foot Model ◽  
Partial Body ◽  
The One ◽  
Midtarsal Joint

Squat exercise is acquiring interest in many fields, due to its benefits in improving health and its biomechanical similarities to a wide range of sport motions and the recruitment of many body segments in a single maneuver. Several researches had examined considerable biomechanical aspects of lower limbs during squat, but not without limitations. The main goal of this study focuses on the analysis of the foot contribution during a partial body weight squat, using a two-segment foot model that considers separately the forefoot and the hindfoot. The forefoot and hindfoot are articulated by the midtarsal joint. Five subjects performed a series of three trials, and results were averaged. Joint kinematics and dynamics were obtained using motion capture system, two force plates closed together, and inverse dynamics techniques. The midtarsal joint reached a dorsiflexion peak of 4°. Different strategies between subjects revealed 4° supination and 2.5° pronation of the forefoot. Vertical GRF showed 20% of body weight concentrated on the forefoot and 30% on the hindfoot. The percentages varied during motion, with a peak of 40% on the hindfoot and correspondently 10% on the forefoot, while the traditional model depicted the unique constant 50% value. Ankle peak of plantarflexion moment, power absorption, and power generation was consistent with values estimated by the one-segment model, without statistical significance.

scholarly journals On Exact Sampling of Nonnegative Infinitely Divisible Random Variables

2012 ◽  
Vol 44 (3) ◽  
pp. 842-873 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhiyi Chi
Keyword(s):  
Basic Result ◽  
Random Variables ◽  
Random Variable ◽  
Fixed Number ◽  
Rejection Sampling ◽  
Infinitely Divisible ◽  
Exact Sampling ◽  
Special Cases ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Lévy Density

Nonnegative infinitely divisible (i.d.) random variables form an important class of random variables. However, when this type of random variable is specified via Lévy densities that have infinite integrals on (0, ∞), except for some special cases, exact sampling is unknown. We present a method that can sample a rather wide range of such i.d. random variables. A basic result is that, for any nonnegative i.d. random variable X with its Lévy density explicitly specified, if its distribution conditional on X ≤ r can be sampled exactly, where r > 0 is any fixed number, then X can be sampled exactly using rejection sampling, without knowing the explicit expression of the density of X. We show that variations of the result can be used to sample various nonnegative i.d. random variables.

scholarly journals Diffusion of dust particles emitted from a fixed source

2015 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 454
Author(s):  
Khaled Al-mashrafi
Keyword(s):  
Source Function ◽  
Strong Dependence ◽  
Vertical Direction ◽  
Dust Particles ◽  
Special Values ◽  
Diffusion Parameters ◽  
Special Cases ◽  
Small Times ◽  
The Mathematical Model ◽  
General Time

<p>In this paper, we investigate the mathematical model for the diffusion of dust particles emitted from a fixed source. Mathematically, the time-dependent diffusion equation in the presence of a point source whose strength is dependent on time is solved. The solution in closed form for a source of general time dependence is obtained. A number of special cases, in which the source function of time is explicitly given and special values of the diffusion parameters are taken are examined in detail. The numerical calculations show the strong dependence of the concentration of dust on the speed of the wind, the source, and its position in the vertical direction. It is also found that the diffusion parameters play an important role in the spread of the dust particles in the atmosphere. When diffusion is present only in the vertical direction, it is found that for small times the dust spreads with a front that travels with the speed of the wind.</p>

scholarly journals Use of a Simple Anthropometric Measurement to Identify Low-Birth-Weight Infants in Enugu, Nigeria

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. 2333794X1878817
Author(s):  
Ndubuisi Kennedy Chukwudi ◽  
Huldah Ijeoma Nwokeukwu ◽  
Gilbert Nwadiakanma Adimorah
Keyword(s):  
Birth Weight ◽  
Low Birth Weight ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Cutoff Point ◽  
Chest Circumference ◽  
Anthropometric Measurement ◽  
Suitable Alternative ◽  
Study Population

Background. This prospective study was conducted to identify a suitable alternative to birth weight and establish its cutoff point to facilitate the identification of low-birth-weight (LBW) infants in Enugu, Southeast Nigeria. Methods. The study involved newborn babies within the first 48 hours of life. Five anthropometric measurements (head, chest, mid-arm and calf circumferences, as well as abdominal girth) were taken using a tape measure while supine length was measured with an aluminum infantometer. Birth weight was also recorded. Linear regression analysis was done to identify the measurement with the highest coefficient of determination with birth weight while its cutoff point was defined using a receiver operating characteristic curve. Standard statistical tests were used to determine the statistical significance of the findings. Results. The LBW prevalence for the study population was 21.41%. Chest circumference had the highest R2 value of 0.83 for the general study population and 0.72 for the LBW infants. The identified cutoff point for chest circumference is ⩽30 cm. Conclusion. Chest circumference is the best alternative to birth weight in identifying LBW babies within the first 48 hours of life in this environment.

scholarly journals Comment on "Quantitative performance metrics for stratospheric-resolving chemistry-climate models" by Waugh and Eyring (2008)

2009 ◽  
Vol 9 (23) ◽  
pp. 9101-9110 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Grewe ◽  
R. Sausen
Keyword(s):  
Observational Data ◽  
Confidence Intervals ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Performance Metrics ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Low Grade ◽  
Perfect Model ◽  
Special Cases ◽  
Quantitative Performance ◽  
The Difference

Abstract. This comment focuses on the statistical limitations of a model grading, as applied by D. Waugh and V. Eyring (2008) (WE08). The grade g is calculated for a specific diagnostic, which basically relates the difference of means of model and observational data to the standard deviation in the observational dataset. We performed Monte Carlo simulations, which show that this method has the potential to lead to large 95%-confidence intervals for the grade. Moreover, the difference between two model grades often has to be very large to become statistically significant. Since the confidence intervals were not considered in detail for all diagnostics, the grading in WE08 cannot be interpreted, without further analysis. The results of the statistical tests performed in WE08 agree with our findings. However, most of those tests are based on special cases, which implicitely assume that observations are available without any errors and that the interannual variability of the observational data and the model data are equal. Without these assumptions, the 95%-confidence intervals become even larger. Hence, the case, where we assumed perfect observations (ignored errors), provides a good estimate for an upper boundary of the threshold, below that a grade becomes statistically significant. Examples have shown that the 95%-confidence interval may even span the whole grading interval [0, 1]. Without considering confidence intervals, the grades presented in WE08 do not allow to decide whether a model result significantly deviates from reality. Neither in WE08 nor in our comment it is pointed out, which of the grades presented in WE08 inhibits such kind of significant deviation. However, our analysis of the grading method demonstrates the unacceptably high potential for these grades to be insignificant. This implies that the grades given by WE08 can not be interpreted by the reader. We further show that the inclusion of confidence intervals into the grading approach is necessary, since otherwise even a perfect model may get a low grade.

scholarly journals Angolan vegetable crops have unique genotypes of potential value for future breeding programmes

2016 ◽  
Vol Volume 112 (Number 3/4) ◽  
Author(s):  
José P. Domingos ◽  
Ana M. Fita ◽  
María B. Picó ◽  
Alicia Sifres ◽  
Isabel H. Daniel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Strong Dependence ◽  
The Other ◽  
Vegetable Crops ◽  
Cucurbita Maxima ◽  
Capsicum Chinense ◽  
Local Markets ◽  
Potential Value ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Breeding Programmes

Abstract A survey was carried out in Angola with the aim of collecting vegetable crops. Collecting expeditions were conducted in Kwanza-Sul, Benguela, Huíla and Namibe Provinces and a total of 80 accessions belonging to 22 species was collected from farmers and local markets. Species belonging to the Solanaceae (37 accessions) and Cucurbitaceae (36 accessions) families were the most frequently found with pepper and eggplant being the predominant solanaceous crops collected. Peppers were sold in local markets as a mixture of different types, even different species: Capsicum chinense, C. baccatum, C. frutescens and C. pubescens. Most of the eggplant accessions collected belonged to Solanum aethiopicum L. Gilo Group, the so-called ‘scarlet eggplant’. Cucurbita genus was better represented than the other cucurbit crops. A high morphological variation was present in the Cucurbita maxima and C. moschata accessions. A set of 22 Cucurbita accessions from Angola, along with 32 Cucurbita controls from a wide range of origins, was cultivated in Valencia, Spain and characterised based on morphology and molecularity using a set of 15 microsatellite markers. A strong dependence on latitude was found in most of the accessions and as a result, many accessions did not set fruit. The molecular analysis showed high molecular variability and uniqueness in the collected accessions, as shown by their segregation from the set of global controls. In summary, the material collected is quite valuable because of its uniqueness and the potential of the breeding characteristics it possesses.

Inner-product theory calculations for some rational potentials in a three-dimensional system

1996 ◽  
Vol 74 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 4-9
Author(s):  
M. R. M. Witwit
Keyword(s):  
Energy Levels ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Inner Product ◽  
Dimensional System ◽  
Product Technique ◽  
Special Cases ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Perturbation Parameters ◽  
Three Dimensional System ◽  
Range Of Values

The energy levels of a three-dimensional system are calculated for the rational potentials,[Formula: see text]using the inner-product technique over a wide range of values of the perturbation parameters (λ, g) and for various eigenstates. The numerical results for some special cases agree with those of previous workers where available.

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