scholarly journals Comprehensive Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Travel Climate Comfort Degree and Rainstorm-Flood Disaster Risk in the China–Russia Border Region

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 3254
Author(s):  
Yezhi Zhou ◽  
Juanle Wang ◽  
Elena Grigorieva ◽  
Eugene Egidarev ◽  
Wenxuan Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Border Region ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Risk Area ◽  
High Risk Area ◽  
The North ◽  
Time Space ◽  
Spatial Regularity ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Suitable Area

Infrastructure and tourism is gradually increasing along the China–Russia border with the development of the China–Mongolia–Russia economic corridor. Facing the issues of thermal comfort and rainstorm-flood risk in the neighborhood area between China and Russia, we constructed homologous evaluation models to analyze spatial regularity and internal variations of their effect. Among the results, approximately 55% of the area was classified into the categories of “comfort” and “high comfort” in summer. Oppositely, the situation of most areas in winter corresponds to physical discomfort. On the other hand, the high-risk area of rainstorm-flood in spring and summer is principally located in the northern and southern regions, respectively, while this is further expanded in autumn. After that, the risk level turns to medium and low. Subsequently, a comprehensive assessment coordinate system of the two results was constructed to identify the distribution pattern of a seasonal suitable area for traveling in binary ways. The evaluation shows that Great Khingan Range in the north-western Heilongjiang province is the preferable place among most of seasons, especially in summer. While on the Russian side, the corresponding area is mainly spread over its southern coastal cities. The study is expected to provide recommendations for reasonable year-round travel time, space selection, and risk decision support for millions of people traveling between China and Russia.

scholarly journals Impact of Coronavirus Disease 2019 on Snail`s Density of Schistosoma`s Host in Wuhan

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guangming LI ◽  
Dandan XU ◽  
Yanfang HU ◽  
Mingxing XU ◽  
Longjiang ZHANG ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Average Density ◽  
Occurrence Rate ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Risk Matrix ◽  
Risk Area ◽  
High Risk Area ◽  
The North ◽  
Risk Event ◽  
North Bank

Abstract Background: The density of snails among schistosomiasis hosts has been kept at a low level and even disappeared in many places in Wuhan. However, from the beginning of the epidemic to the lifting of the seal in Wuhan, which the work of snail detection and extermination has been at a standstill. In order to analyze the potential harm of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on urban schistosomiasis transmission, we investigated the density of snails in the Jiangan and Hongshan districts of Wuhan, which evaluated the possibility of schistosomiasis outbreak in Wuhan city. Methods The density and infection status of snails were monitored by GPS satellite, which the risk value was calculated by adjusting Kaiser model. SigmaPlot was used to draw a three-dimensional risk matrix. Results (i)The living snail frame occurrence rate was 1.48% and the average living snail density was 0.054/0.11 m2 in 2020. Compared with that in 2019, the area of existing snails Tianxingzhou increased greatly. The area of historical snails was 24187 m2 has increased which the average density of living snails was 0.019/0.11 m2. No infectious snails were found in the survey area. (ii) Experts have high enthusiasm (E = 100%). The authority of experts on the indicators of possibility, harmfulness and uncontrollability is 0.842, 0.870 and 0.866 respectively, all greater than 0.7, indicating that expert evaluation is authoritative. After adjusting the Kaiser model, the top three risk values were the north bank of Tianxingzhou, Tianxingzhou as a whole, and Hongshan as a whole. The existing snail sites in the north bank of Tianxingzhou had the highest risk value and ranked the second Pak sha Chau. The highest risk value was found in the historical snail village of Yangsiji village. The risk events on the north bank of Tianxingzhou are located in the orange zone, which belongs to the high-risk area. The whole Hongshan District, the existing snail Tianxingzhou and the tail of Tianxingzhou are located in the yellow zone, belonging to the moderate risk area. Other risk events are located in the blue or green zones and are in the low risk or negligible sub-zone. (iii)The three dimensional risk matrix shows that the potential risk level of the existing snail spot and the possibility of risk occurrence of Tianxingzhou is high. The existing snail points on the Pak sha Chau, indicating the severity of the risk event; Historical snails, indicating the unpredictability of risk events once they occur. The emergency monitoring points show that once the risk event occurs, the level of uncontrollability rises instantly. The whole Hongshan district indicates the severity of the occurrence of the risk event. Conclusion Under the influence of Covid-19 epidemic, the risk of schistosomiasis infection was high and the historical snail snail appeared again in Wuhan. Therefore, the prevention and control work of schistosomiasis infection should be strengthened in Wuhan.

scholarly journals Modelling local patterns of child mortality risk: a Bayesian Spatio-temporal analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alejandro Lome-Hurtado ◽  
Jacques Lartigue-Mendoza ◽  
Juan C. Trujillo
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Mexico City ◽  
Child Mortality ◽  
Mortality Risk ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Health Concern ◽  
The North ◽  
Greater Mexico ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Child Mortality Rate

Abstract Background Globally, child mortality rate has remained high over the years, but the figure can be reduced through proper implementation of spatially-targeted public health policies. Due to its alarming rate in comparison to North American standards, child mortality is particularly a health concern in Mexico. Despite this fact, there remains a dearth of studies that address its spatio-temporal identification in the country. The aims of this study are i) to model the evolution of child mortality risk at the municipality level in Greater Mexico City, (ii) to identify municipalities with high, medium, and low risk over time, and (iii) using municipality trends, to ascertain potential high-risk municipalities. Methods In order to control for the space-time patterns of data, the study performs a Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis. This methodology permits the modelling of the geographical variation of child mortality risk across municipalities, within the studied time span. Results The analysis shows that most of the high-risk municipalities were in the east, along with a few in the north and west areas of Greater Mexico City. In some of them, it is possible to distinguish an increasing trend in child mortality risk. The outcomes highlight municipalities currently presenting a medium risk but liable to become high risk, given their trend, after the studied period. Finally, the likelihood of child mortality risk illustrates an overall decreasing tendency throughout the 7-year studied period. Conclusions The identification of high-risk municipalities and risk trends may provide a useful input for policymakers seeking to reduce the incidence of child mortality. The results provide evidence that supports the use of geographical targeting in policy interventions.

scholarly journals Assessing the impact of feline immunodeficiency virus and bovine tuberculosis co-infection in African lions

2012 ◽  
Vol 279 (1745) ◽  
pp. 4206-4214 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Maas ◽  
D. F. Keet ◽  
V. P. M. G. Rutten ◽  
J. A. P. Heesterbeek ◽  
M. Nielen
Keyword(s):  
Feline Immunodeficiency Virus ◽  
Bovine Tuberculosis ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Blood Chemistry ◽  
The North ◽  
Conservation Problem ◽  
Immunodeficiency Virus ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
The Impact ◽  
African Lions

Bovine tuberculosis (BTB), caused by Mycobacterium bovis , is a disease that was introduced relatively recently into the Kruger National Park (KNP) lion population. Feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV ple ) is thought to have been endemic in lions for a much longer time. In humans, co-infection between Mycobacterium tuberculosis and human immunodeficiency virus increases disease burden. If BTB were to reach high levels of prevalence in lions, and if similar worsening effects would exist between FIV ple and BTB as for their human equivalents, this could pose a lion conservation problem. We collected data on lions in KNP from 1993 to 2008 for spatio-temporal analysis of both FIV ple and BTB, and to assess whether a similar relationship between the two diseases exists in lions. We found that BTB prevalence in the south was higher than in the north (72 versus 19% over the total study period) and increased over time in the northern part of the KNP (0–41%). No significant spatio-temporal differences were seen for FIV ple in the study period, in agreement with the presumed endemic state of the infection. Both infections affected haematology and blood chemistry values, FIV ple in a more pronounced way than BTB. The effect of co-infection on these values, however, was always less than additive. Though a large proportion (31%) of the lions was co-infected with FIV ple and M. bovis , there was no evidence for a synergistic relation as in their human counterparts. Whether this results from different immunopathogeneses remains to be determined.

scholarly journals Modelling Local Patterns of Children Mortality. A Bayesian Spatio-Temporal Analysis.

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alejandro Lome-Hurtado ◽  
Jacques Lartigue Mendoza ◽  
Juan Carlos Trujillo
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Mortality Risk ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Health Concern ◽  
North West ◽  
The North ◽  
Policy Interventions ◽  
Medium Risk ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Over Time

Abstract Background: The number of death children at the international scale are still high, but with proper spatially-targeted health public policies this number could be reduced. In Mexico, children mortality is a particular health concern due to its alarming rate all throughout North America. The aims of this study are i) to model the change of children mortality risk at the municipality level, (ii) to identify municipalities with high, medium and low risk over time and (iii) to ascertain potential high-risk municipalities across time, using local trends of each municipality in Greater Mexico City. Methods: The study uses Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis to control for space-time patterns of data. This allow to model the geographical variation of the municipalities within the time span studied. Results: The analysis shows that most of the high-risk municipalities are in the north, west, and some in the east; some of such municipalities show an increasing children mortality risk over time. The outcomes highlight some municipalities which show a medium risk currently but are likely to become high risk along the study period. Finally, the odds of children mortality risk illustrate a decreasing tendency over the 7-year framework. Conclusions: Identification of high-risk municipalities may provide a useful input to policy-makers seeking out to reduce the incidence of children mortality, since it would provide evidence to support geographical targeting for policy interventions.

scholarly journals Arabian Sea Tropical Cyclones: A Spatio-Temporal Analysis in Support of Natural Hazard Risk Appraisal in Oman

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Suad Al-Manji ◽  
Gordon Mitchell ◽  
Amna Al Ruheili
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Natural Hazard ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
The North ◽  
Risk Areas ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Extreme Winds

Tropical cyclones [TCs] are a common natural hazard that have significantly impacted Oman. Over the period 1881–2019, 41 TC systems made landfall in Oman, each associated with extreme winds, storm surges and significant flash floods, often resulting in loss of life and substantial damage to infrastructure. TCs affect Omani coastal areas from Muscat in the north to Salalah in the south. However, developing a better understanding of the high-risk regions is needed, and is of particular interest in disaster risk reduction institutions in Oman. This study aims to find and map TC tracks and their spatio-temporal distribution to landfall in Oman to identify the high-risk areas. The analysis uses Kernel Density Estimation [KDE] and Linear Direction Mean [LDM] methods to better identify the spatio-temporal distribution of TC tracks and their landfall in Oman. The study reveals clear seasonal and monthly patterns. This knowledge will help to improve disaster planning for the high-risk areas.

scholarly journals African Swine Fever spread across Asia, 2018---2019

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Ward ◽  
Ellen Mighell
Keyword(s):  
African Swine Fever Virus ◽  
African Swine Fever ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
The South ◽  
Start Date ◽  
North East ◽  
The North ◽  
Spatio Temporal

African Swine Fever Virus (ASFV) is a highly contagious pathogen causing disease in pigs, commonly characterised by acute haemorrhagic fever. Prior to August 2018, African Swine Fever (ASF) had not been reported in Asia, but has since spread throughout China, Mongolia, Korea, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Timor-Leste and Papua New Guinea. Using data collated from reports of confirmed cases, we applied spatio-temporal analysis to describe ASFV spread throughout Asia, from 1 August 2018 (reported start date) to 31 December 2019. Analysis revealed a propagating epidemic of ASFV throughout Asia, with peaks corresponding to increased reports from China, Vietnam and Laos. Two clusters of reported outbreaks were found. During the epidemic, ASFV primarily spread from the North-East to the South-East: a larger, secondary cluster in the North-East represented earlier reports, whilst the smaller, primary cluster in the South-East was characterised by later reports. Significant differences in country-specific epidemics, morbidity, mortality and unit types were discovered, likely attributable to differences in prevention, surveillance and control measures. The initial number of outbreaks and enterprise size are likely predictors of the speed of spread and the effectiveness of ASFV stamping out procedures. Biosecurity methods, wild boar populations and the transportation of pigs and movement of infected fomites are discussed as likely risk factors for facilitating ASFV spread across Asia.

Tsunami Risk Analysis with Run-up Variation Scenario Based on Modeling of Geographic Information System on Sibolga City North Sumatera

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (2.13) ◽  
pp. 332
Author(s):  
Muhammad Ridha Syafii Damanik ◽  
Ali Nurman ◽  
R Restu ◽  
Nurmala Berutu ◽  
. .
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Risk Category ◽  
Risk Area ◽  
High Risk Area ◽  
Positive Correlation ◽  
Inundation Area ◽  
Tsunami Risk ◽  
Run Up

This study aims to analyse the tsunami risk level based on scenarios of tsunami run-up variation in the coastline of Sibolga City. The input data on the model are a surface roughness map obtained from quick bird satellite imagery interpretation, slope map obtained from Indonesian Earth Map and run-up variation scenario with height 5, 10, 15, 20, and 25 meters. Tsunami risk level modelling was prepared using inundation height variables and land use vulnerability. The relationship between run-up height and tsunami risk level was analysed using simple linear regression. The total area of inundation was obtained based on the order of run-up variation by 1,35 km2, 1,92 km2, 2,47 km2, 3,27 km2, and 4,15 km2 while the area of high-risk category based on the order of run-up variation by 0,41 km2, 0,77 km2, 1,08 km2, 1,46 km2, and 1,95 km2. The result of linear regression between the run-up height and the width of the inundation area showed a positive correlation. Each 1-meter elevation of run-up will expand the inundation area by 0,14 km2. High run-up variables with high-risk areas also have a positive correlation. Each 1-meter of run-up will expand high-risk area at 0,75 km2.  

scholarly journals Modelling Local Patterns of Child Mortality Risk. A Bayesian Spatio-Temporal Analysis.

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alejandro Lome-Hurtado ◽  
Jacques Lartigue Mendoza ◽  
Juan Carlos Trujillo
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Mexico City ◽  
Child Mortality ◽  
Mortality Risk ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Health Concern ◽  
The North ◽  
Medium Risk ◽  
Greater Mexico ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Abstract Background : At the international scale the number of child deaths is still high; however, this figure is susceptible to be reduced implementing proper spatially-targeted health public policies. Due to its alarming rate in comparison to North American standards, child mortality is a particular health concern in Mexico. Despite this fact, there remains a dearth of studies that address the spatial-temporal identification of child mortality in Mexico. The aims of this study are i) to model the evolution of child mortality risk at the municipality level in Greater Mexico City, (ii) to identify municipalities with high, medium and low risk over time, and (iii) using municipality trends, to ascertain potential high-risk municipalities. Methods : In order to control for space-time patterns of data, the study performs a Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis. This methodology allows to model the geographical variation of child mortality risk across municipalities within the studied time span. Results : The analysis shows that most of the high-risk municipalities are in the north and west areas of Greater Mexico City, although there coexist some in the east; some of them presenting an increasing child mortality risk trend. The outcomes highlight some municipalities currently presenting a medium risk, but that, given their trend, are likely to become high risk after the studied period. Finally, the likelihood of child mortality risk illustrates an overall decreasing tendency throughout the 7-year studied period. Conclusions : The identification of high-risk municipalities and risk trends may provide a useful input to policy-makers seeking to reduce the incidence of child mortality. The results provide evidence to support geographical targeting for policy interventions.

scholarly journals Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Dust Storm Activity in Chryse Planitia Using MGS-MOC Observations from Mars Years 24–28

Universe ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (11) ◽  
pp. 433
Author(s):  
Bo Li ◽  
Zongyu Yue ◽  
Shaojie Qu ◽  
Peiwen Yao ◽  
Xiaohui Fu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Dust Storm ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Dust Storms ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Storm Activity ◽  
Ice Cap ◽  
The North ◽  
Outflow Channels ◽  
Average Probability ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Dust storms, observed in all seasons, are among the most momentous of Mars’ atmospheric activities. The Entry–Descent–Landing (EDL) activity of a Martian landing mission is influenced by local atmospheric conditions, especially the probability of dust storm activity. Chryse Planitia, featuring many of the largest and most prominent outflow channels and possible mud volcanoes, is an important target site for current and future Mars landing missions. It is of great significance to understand that a Mars landing probe may encounter a dust storm situation during EDL season in the Chryse Planitia. In this study, based on four Martian years, Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC) Mars Daily Global Maps (MDGMs), 1172 dust storms were identified within Chryse’s 1600 km-radius ring. Secondly, the daily mean dust storm probability was calculated, binned by 1° of solar longitude in the Chryse landing area. The two active periods of dust storm activity are Ls = 177–239° and Ls = 288–4°, with an average daily mean dust storm probability of 9.5% and 4.1%. Dust storm activity frequency is closely interrelated with the seasonal ebb and flow of the north polar ice cap; consequently, most dust storms occur in either the cap’s growth or recession phase. We divided the Chryse landing area into square grids of 0.5° and computed the average probability of dust storm occurrence in each grid, which ranged from 0.19% to 2.42%, with an average of 1.22%. The dust storm activity probability in space was also inhomogeneous—low in the west and south but high in the east and north—which was mainly affected by the origin and the path of dust storm sequences. Based on empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of storms in the Chryse area, 40.5% are cap-edge storms in the northern hemisphere. Finally, we concluded that the preferred time of a Mars landing mission is Ls = 18–65° in the Chryse Planitia, and three preferred landing areas were selected with low dust storm probability.

scholarly journals Spatio-temporal variability of organic matter contents in the waters of the Caspian Sea

2019 ◽  
Vol 46 (1) ◽  
pp. 70-81
Author(s):  
A. I. Agatova ◽  
N. I. Torgunova ◽  
E. A. Serebryanikova ◽  
L. K. Dukhova
Keyword(s):  
Organic Matter ◽  
Hydrogen Sulfide ◽  
Caspian Sea ◽  
Vertical Mixing ◽  
Qualitative Change ◽  
Border Region ◽  
The Caspian Sea ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
The North ◽  
Spatio Temporal

We analyzed spatio-temporal changes in concentrations and elemental compositions of dissolved organic matter in the waters of the Caspian Sea over the period 2010–2015. These studies showed that over the past 5 years of lowering of sea levels, mean concentrations of Corg and Norg remained virtually unchanged, whereas concentrations of Porg decreased more than three-fold, suggesting a qualitative change in organic matter. Based on data averages, concentrations of Corg, Norg, and Porg in Southern waters were slightly higher than in the North and Middle-Caspian waters during the monitoring period. In deep areas at the border region of hydrogen sulfide occurrence, concentrations of Corg, Norg, and Porg increase. Hence, the presence of hydrogen sulfide in the deep waters of the Derbent and South Caspian basins, and the corresponding increase in organic matter contents, indicates no radical improvement of vertical mixing of the sea in these areas during the eight years of our regression model. Moreover, according to the carbohydrate distribution, organic substances of petroleum hydrocarbons contribute considerably to a common pool.

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