scholarly journals Climate Change Implications for Water Availability: A Case Study of Barcelona City

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 1779 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edwar Forero-Ortiz ◽  
Eduardo Martínez-Gomariz ◽  
Robert Monjo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Strong Dependence ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Water Volume ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Main Concern ◽  
Rainfall Time Series ◽  
Data Set

Barcelona city has a strong dependence on the Ter and Llobregat reservoir system to provide drinking water. One main concern for the next century is a potential water scarcity triggered by a severe and persistent rainfall shortage. This is one of the climate-driven impacts studied within the EU funded project RESCCUE. To evaluate potential drought scenarios, the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) hydrological model reproduces the water contributions by month that have reached the reservoirs, regarding the accumulated rainfall over each sub-basin, representing the available historical-observed water levels. For future scenarios, we adjusted the input data set using climate projections of rainfall time series data of the project RESCCUE. Local outputs from 9 different climate models were applied to simulate river basins’ responses to reservoirs’ incoming water volume. Analyzing these results, we obtained average trends of the models for each scenario, hypothetical extreme values, and quantification for changes in water availability. Future water availability scenarios for Barcelona central water sources showed a mean decrease close to 11% in comparison with the period 1971–2015, considering the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) climate change scenario in the year 2100. This research forecasts a slight downward trend in water availability from rainfall contributions from the mid-21st century. This planned future behavior does not mean that the annual water contributions are getting lower than the current ones, but rather, identifies an escalation in the frequency of drought cycles.

scholarly journals The effects of ENSO, climate change and human activities on the water level of Lake Toba, Indonesia: a critical literature review

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hendri Irwandi ◽  
Mohammad Syamsu Rosid ◽  
Terry Mart
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Dominant Factor ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Continuous Increase ◽  
The Future

AbstractThis research quantitatively and qualitatively analyzes the factors responsible for the water level variations in Lake Toba, North Sumatra Province, Indonesia. According to several studies carried out from 1993 to 2020, changes in the water level were associated with climate variability, climate change, and human activities. Furthermore, these studies stated that reduced rainfall during the rainy season due to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the continuous increase in the maximum and average temperatures were some of the effects of climate change in the Lake Toba catchment area. Additionally, human interventions such as industrial activities, population growth, and damage to the surrounding environment of the Lake Toba watershed had significant impacts in terms of decreasing the water level. However, these studies were unable to determine the factor that had the most significant effect, although studies on other lakes worldwide have shown these factors are the main causes of fluctuations or decreases in water levels. A simulation study of Lake Toba's water balance showed the possibility of having a water surplus until the mid-twenty-first century. The input discharge was predicted to be greater than the output; therefore, Lake Toba could be optimized without affecting the future water level. However, the climate projections depicted a different situation, with scenarios predicting the possibility of extreme climate anomalies, demonstrating drier climatic conditions in the future. This review concludes that it is necessary to conduct an in-depth, comprehensive, and systematic study to identify the most dominant factor among the three that is causing the decrease in the Lake Toba water level and to describe the future projected water level.

Congo Basin's Shrinking Watersheds

2020 ◽  
pp. 1452-1468
Author(s):  
Bila-Isia Inogwabini
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Democratic Republic Of Congo ◽  
Congo Basin ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Water Volume ◽  
Rainfall Time Series ◽  
Aquatic Resources ◽  
Basin Water

Rainfall time series data from three sites (Kinshasa, Luki, and Mabali) in the western Democratic Republic of Congo were analyzed using regression analysis; rainfall intensities decreased in all three sites. The Congo Basin waters will follow the equation y = -20894x + 5483.16; R2 = 0.7945. The model suggests 18%-loss of the Congo Basin water volume and 7%-decrease for fish biomasses by 2025. Financial incomes generated by fishing will decrease by 11% by 2040 compared with 1998 levels. About 51% of women (N= 408,173) from the Lake Tumba Landscape fish; their revenues decreased by 11% between 2005 and 2010. If this trend continues, women's revenues will decrease by 59% by 2040. Decreased waters will severely impact women (e.g. increasing walking distances to clean waters). Increasing populations and decreasing waters will lead to immigrations to this region because water resources will remain available and highly likely ignite social conflicts over aquatic resources.

scholarly journals Evaluative application of UKCP09‐based downscaled future weather years to simulate overheating risk in typical English homes

2013 ◽  
Vol 31 (4) ◽  
pp. 231-252 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rajat Gupta ◽  
Matthew Gregg ◽  
Hu Du ◽  
Katie Williams
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Simulation Modelling ◽  
Simulation Software ◽  
Building Simulation ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Difference

PurposeTo critically compare three future weather year (FWY) downscaling approaches, based on the 2009 UK Climate Projections, used for climate change impact and adaptation analysis in building simulation software.Design/methodology/approachThe validity of these FWYs is assessed through dynamic building simulation modelling to project future overheating risk in typical English homes in 2050s and 2080s.FindingsThe modelling results show that the variation in overheating projections is far too significant to consider the tested FWY data sets equally suitable for the task.Research and practical implicationsIt is recommended that future research should consider harmonisation of the downscaling approaches so as to generate a unified data set of FWYs to be used for a given location and climate projection. If FWY are to be used in practice, live projects will need viable and reliable FWY on which to base their adaptation decisions. The difference between the data sets tested could potentially lead to different adaptation priorities specifically with regard to time series and adaptation phasing through the life of a building.Originality/valueThe paper investigates the different results derived from FWY application to building simulation. The outcome and implications are important considerations for research and practice involved in FWY data use in building simulation intended for climate change adaptation modelling.

scholarly journals The Impacts of Covid-19 Pandemic and Weather Conditions on Water Environment, a Case Study in Istanbul and London/South-east England

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
FERHAT YILMAZ ◽  
Dan Osborn ◽  
Michel Tsamados
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Use ◽  
Water Consumption ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Additional Stress ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Management Options ◽  
Dpsir Framework ◽  
South East England

The Covid-19 Pandemic affects not only populations around the world but also the environment and natural resources. Lockdowns and restricted new lifestyles have had wide ranging impacts on the environment (e.g., on air quality in cities). Although hygiene and disinfection procedures and precautions are effective ways to protect people from Covid-19, they have important consequences for water usage and resources especially given the increasing impacts of climate change on rainfall patterns, water use and resources. Climate change and public health issues may compound one another and so we used a DPSIR Framework to scope the main factors that may interact to affect water use and resources (in the form of reservoirs) using evidence from Istanbul, Turkey with some discussion of the comparative situation in the UK and elsewhere. We modified initial views on the framework to account for the regional, city and community level experiences. We noted water consumption in Istanbul has been increasing over the last two decades (except, it appears, in times of very low rainfall/drought); that there were increases in water consumption in the early stages of the Covid-19 pandemic; and, despite some increase in rainfall, water levels in reservoirs appeared to decrease during lockdowns (for a range of reasons). We also noted, through a new simple way of visualising the data, that a low resource capacity might be recurring every 6 or 7 years in Istanbul. We made no attempt in this paper to quantify the relative contribution that climate change, population growth etc are making to water consumption and reservoir levels as we were focused here on scoping those social, environmental and economic factors that appear to play a role in potential water stress and on developing a DPSIR Framework that could aid both subsequent quantitative studies and the development of policy and adaptive management options for Istanbul and other large complex conurbations (such as London and south-east England). If there are periodic water resource issues and temperatures rise as expected in climate projections with an accompanying increase in the duration of hot spells the subsequent additional stress on water systems might make managing future public health emergencies, such as a pandemic, even more difficult.

scholarly journals Climate change or irrigated agriculture – what drives the water level decline of Lake Urmia?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephan Schulz ◽  
Sahand Darehshouri ◽  
Elmira Hassanzadeh ◽  
Christoph Schüth
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Climatic Changes ◽  
Water Withdrawal ◽  
Water Volume ◽  
Irrigated Agriculture ◽  
Agricultural Water ◽  
Lake Urmia ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Water Level Decline

<p>Lake Urmia is one of the largest hypersaline lakes on earth with a unique biodiversity. Over the past two decades the lake water level declined dramatically, threatening the functionality of the lake’s ecosystems. There is a controversial debate about the reasons for this decline, with either mismanagement of the water resources, or climatic changes assumed to be the main cause.</p><p>During this study we gathered an extensive hydro-meteorological data set, information about the reservoirs and the lake bathymetry. This data served for a quantification of the water budget components of Lake Urmia over the last five decades. Interestingly, a comparison of the temporal patterns of the principal natural boundary conditions of streamflow (precipitation and evaporation) with the inflow to the lake revealed that the variability of the inflow can be well explained its natural drivers. With this we can show that variations of Lake Urmia’s water level during the analyzed period were mainly triggered by climatic changes.</p><p>However, under the current climatic conditions agricultural water extraction volumes are significant and often exceed the remaining surface water inflow volumes. This rather simple observation shows that something deeper needs to be dug here. Therefore, we performed a parsimonious hindcast experiment and run a set of development scenarios based on the previously developed water balance. This helped us to better quantify the human impact on the development of the water volume of Lake Urmia. We could show that changes in agricultural water withdrawal would have a significant impact on the lake volume and could either stabilize the lake, or lead to its complete collapse (Schulz et al., 2020).</p><p> </p><p><strong>References</strong></p><p>Schulz, S., Darehshouri, S., Hassanzadeh, E., Tajrishy, M. and Schüth, C.: Climate change or irrigated agriculture – what drives the water level decline of Lake Urmia, Sci. Rep., 10(1), 236, doi:10.1038/s41598-019-57150-y, 2020.</p>

Congo Basin's Shrinking Watersheds

2017 ◽  
pp. 211-226
Author(s):  
Bila-Isia Inogwabini
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Democratic Republic Of Congo ◽  
Congo Basin ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Water Volume ◽  
Rainfall Time Series ◽  
Aquatic Resources ◽  
Basin Water

Rainfall time series data from three sites (Kinshasa, Luki, and Mabali) in the western Democratic Republic of Congo were analyzed using regression analysis; rainfall intensities decreased in all three sites. The Congo Basin waters will follow the equation y = -20894x + 5483.16; R2 = 0.7945. The model suggests 18%-loss of the Congo Basin water volume and 7%-decrease for fish biomasses by 2025. Financial incomes generated by fishing will decrease by 11% by 2040 compared with 1998 levels. About 51% of women (N= 408,173) from the Lake Tumba Landscape fish; their revenues decreased by 11% between 2005 and 2010. If this trend continues, women's revenues will decrease by 59% by 2040. Decreased waters will severely impact women (e.g. increasing walking distances to clean waters). Increasing populations and decreasing waters will lead to immigrations to this region because water resources will remain available and highly likely ignite social conflicts over aquatic resources.

scholarly journals Climate change and land suitability for potato production in England and Wales: impacts and adaptation

2011 ◽  
Vol 150 (2) ◽  
pp. 161-177 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. DACCACHE ◽  
C. KEAY ◽  
R. J. A. JONES ◽  
E. K. WEATHERHEAD ◽  
M. A. STALHAM ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Potato Production ◽  
Land Suitability ◽  
Geographical Information ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
England And Wales ◽  
Supplementary Irrigation ◽  
Emissions Scenario

SUMMARYThe viability of commercial potato production is influenced by spatial and temporal variability in soils and agroclimate, and the availability of water resources where supplementary irrigation is required. Soil characteristics and agroclimatic conditions greatly influence the cultivar choice, agronomic husbandry practices and the economics of production. Using the latest (UKCP09) scenarios of climate change for the UK, the present paper describes a methodology using pedo-climatic functions and a geographical information system (GIS) to model and map current and future land suitability for potato production in England and Wales. The outputs identify regions where rainfed production is likely to become limiting and where future irrigated production would be constrained due to shortages in water availability. The results suggest that by the 2050s, the area of land that is currently well or moderately suited for rainfed production would decline by 88 and 74%, respectively, under the ‘most likely’ climate projections for the low emissions scenario and by 95 and 86%, respectively, for the high emissions scenario, owing to increased likelihood of dry conditions. In many areas, rainfed production would become increasingly risky. However, with supplementary irrigation, c. 0·85 of the total arable land in central and eastern England would remain suitable for production, although most of this is in catchments where water resources are already over-licensed and/or over-abstracted; the expansion of irrigated cropping is thus likely to be constrained by water availability. The increase in the volume of water required due to the switch from rainfed- to irrigated-potato cropping is likely to be much greater than the incremental increase in water demand solely on irrigated potatoes. The implications of climate change on the potato industry, the adaptation options and responses available, and the uncertainty associated with the land suitability projections, are discussed.

scholarly journals Water allocation under climate change

Elem Sci Anth ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Pilar Barría ◽  
Ignacio Barría Sandoval ◽  
Carlos Guzman ◽  
Cristián Chadwick ◽  
Camila Alvarez-Garreton ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Water Allocation ◽  
Water Security ◽  
Water Volume ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Water Shortages ◽  
North Central ◽  
The Future

Chile is positioned in the 20th rank of water availability per capita. Nonetheless, water security levels vary across the territory. Around 70% of the national population lives in arid and semiarid regions, where a persistent drought has been experienced over the last decade. This has led to water security problems including water shortages. The water allocation and trading system in Chile is based on a water use rights (WURs) market, with limited regulatory and supervisory mechanisms, where the volume to be granted as permanent and eventual WURs is calculated from statistical analyses of historical streamflow records if available, or from empirical estimations if they are not. This computation of WURs does not consider the nonstationarity of hydrological processes nor climatic projections. This study presents the first large sample diagnosis of water allocation system in Chile under climate change scenarios. This is based on novel anthropic intervention indices (IAI), which were computed as the ratio between the total granted water volume to the water availability within 87 basins in north-central and southern Chile (30°S–42°S). The IAI were evaluated for the historical period (1979–2019) and under modeled-based climatic projections (2055–2080). According to these IAI levels, to date, there are 20 out of 87 overallocated basins, which under the assumption that no further WURs will be granted in the future, increases up to 25 basins for the 2055–2080 period. The results show that, to date most of north-central Chilean catchments already have a large anthropic intervention degree, and the increases for the future period occurs mostly in the southern region of the country (approximately 38°S), which has been considered as possible source of water for large water transfer projects (i.e., water roads). These indices and diagnosis are proposed as a tool to help policy makers to address water scarcity under climate change.

scholarly journals Assessment of future water availability under climate change, considering scenarios for population growth and ageing infrastructure

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erle Kristvik ◽  
Tone M. Muthanna ◽  
Knut Alfredsen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Distribution Systems ◽  
Water Distribution ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
The City ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract Climate change is likely to cause higher temperatures and alterations in precipitation patterns, with potential impacts on water resources. One important issue in this respect is inflow to drinking water reservoirs. Moreover, deteriorating infrastructures cause leakage in water distribution systems and urbanization augments water demand in cities. In this paper, a framework for assessing the combined impacts of multiple trends on water availability is proposed. The approach is focused on treating uncertainty in local climate projections in order to be of practical use to water suppliers and decision makers. An index for water availability (WAI) is introduced to quantify impacts of climate change, population growth, and ageing infrastructure, as well as the effects of implementing counteractive measures, and has been applied to the city of Bergen, Norway. Results of the study emphasize the importance of considering a range of climate scenarios due to the wide spread in global projections. For the specific case of Bergen, substantial alterations in the hydrological cycle were projected, leading to stronger seasonal variations and a more unpredictable water availability. By sensitivity analysis of the WAI, it was demonstrated how two adaptive measures, increased storage capacity and leakage reduction, can help counteract the impacts of climate change.

scholarly journals Lake water volume fluctuations in response to climate change in Xinjiang, China from 2002 to 2018

PeerJ ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
pp. e9683
Author(s):  
Adilai Wufu ◽  
Hongwei Wang ◽  
Yun Chen ◽  
Yusufujiang Rusuli ◽  
Ligang Ma ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Lake Water ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Water Volume ◽  
Optical Remote Sensing ◽  
Volume Data ◽  
Water Volumes ◽  
Different Altitudes

Climate change has a global impact on the water cycle and its spatial patterns, and these impacts are more pronounced in eco-fragile regions. Arid regions are significantly affected by human activities like farming, and climate change, which influences lake water volumes, especially in different latitudes. This study integrates radar altimetry data from 2002 to 2018 with optical remote sensing images to analyze changes in the lake areas, levels, and volumes at different altitudes in Xinjiang, China. We analyzed changes in lake volumes in March, June, and October and studied their causes. The results showed large changes in the surface areas, levels, and volumes of lakes at different altitudes. During 2002–2010, the lakes in low- and medium-altitude areas were shrinking but lakes in high altitude areas were expanding. Monthly analysis revealed more diversified results: the lake water levels and volumes tended to decrease in March (−0.10 m/year, 37.55×108 m3) and increase in June (0.03 m/year, 3.48×108 m3) and October (0.04 m/year, 26.90×108 m3). The time series lake water volume data was reconstructed for 2011 to 2018 based on the empirical model and the total lake water volume showed a slightly increasing trend during this period (71.35×108 m3). We hypothesized that changes in lake water at high altitudes were influenced by temperature-induced glacial snow melt and lake water in low- to medium-altitude areas was most influenced by human activities like agricultural irrigation practices.

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