Evaluating the EKC Hypothesis for the BCIM-EC Member Countries under the Belt and Road Initiative

Arifur Rahman; S. M. Woahid Murad; Fayyaz Ahmad; Xiaowen Wang

doi:10.3390/su12041478

Evaluating the EKC Hypothesis for the BCIM-EC Member Countries under the Belt and Road Initiative

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su12041478 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (4) ◽

pp. 1478 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Arifur Rahman ◽

S. M. Woahid Murad ◽

Fayyaz Ahmad ◽

Xiaowen Wang

Keyword(s):

Panel Data ◽

Carbon Emission ◽

Structural Breaks ◽

Energy Use ◽

Trade Openness ◽

Gdp Per Capita ◽

Ekc Hypothesis ◽

Long Run ◽

Short Run ◽

Per Capita

This paper attempts to examine the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis for the BCIM-EC (Bangladesh–China–India–Myanmar economic corridor) member countries under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) of China. Both time series and panel data are covered, with respect to carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, GDP per capita, energy use, and trade openness. For panel data analysis, GDP per capita and energy consumption have positive effects on CO2, while the effect of the quadratic term of GDP per capita is negative in the short-run. However, the short-run effects do not remain valid in the long-run, except for energy use. Therefore, the EKC hypothesis is only a short-run phenomenon in the case of the panel data framework. However, based on the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach with and without structural breaks, the EKC hypothesis exists in India and China, while the EKC hypothesis holds in Bangladesh and Myanmar with regard to disregarding breaks within the short-run. The long-run estimates support the EKC hypothesis of considering and disregarding structural breaks for Bangladesh, China, and India. The findings of the Dumitrescu and Hurlin panel noncausality tests show that there is a unidirectional causality that runs from GDP per capita to carbon emission, squared GDP to carbon emission, and carbon emission to trade openness. Therefore, the BCIM-EC under the BRI should not only focus on connectivity and massive infrastructural development for securing consecutive economic growth among themselves, but also undertake a long-range policy to cope with environmental degradation and to ensure sustainable green infrastructure.

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The nexus between tourism demand and output per capita with the relative importance of trade openness and financial development

Tourism Economics ◽

10.5367/te.2015.0505 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 23 (1) ◽

pp. 168-186 ◽

Cited By ~ 27

Author(s):

Muhammad Shahbaz ◽

Ronald Ravinesh Kumar ◽

Stanislav Ivanov ◽

Nanthakumar Loganathan

Keyword(s):

Financial Development ◽

Structural Breaks ◽

Trade Openness ◽

Tourism Demand ◽

Distributed Lag ◽

Long Run ◽

Short Run ◽

In Series ◽

Per Capita ◽

The Impact

This article revisits the tourism-growth nexus in Malaysia using time series quarterly data over the period 1975–2013. The authors examine the impact of tourism using two separate indicators – tourism receipts per capita and visitor arrivals per capita. Using the augmented Solow production function and the autoregressive distributed lag bounds procedure, they also incorporate trade openness and financial development and account for structural breaks in series. The results show the evidence of cointegration between the variables. Assessing the long-run results using both indicators of tourism demand, it is noted that the elasticity coefficient of tourism is 0.13 and 0.10 when considering visitor arrivals and tourism receipts (in per capita terms), respectively. Notably, the impact of tourism demand is marginally higher with visitor arrivals. The elasticity of trade openness is 0.19, that of financial development is 0.09 and that of capital share is 0.15. In the short run, the coefficient of tourism is marginally negative, and for financial development and trade openness, it is 0.01 and 0.18, respectively. The Granger causality tests show bidirectional causation between tourism and output per capita, financial development and tourism and trade openness and tourism demand, duly indicating the feedback or mutually reinforcing impact between the variables and providing evidence that tourism is central to enhancing the key sectors and the overall income level.

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NON-LINEAR EFFECTS OF TERRORISM ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN PAKISTAN: ACCOUNTING FOR CAPITAL PER WORKER AND STRUCTURAL BREAKS

The Singapore Economic Review ◽

10.1142/s0217590819500140 ◽

2019 ◽

pp. 1950014

Author(s):

RONALD RAVINESH Kumar ◽

SYED JAWAD HUSSAIN SHAHZAD ◽

PETER JOSEF STAUVERMANN ◽

NIKEEL Kumar

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Capita Income ◽

Structural Breaks ◽

Per Capita Income ◽

Negative Effects ◽

Capital Share ◽

Long Run ◽

Non Linear ◽

Short Run ◽

Per Capita

In this study, we examine the asymmetric effects of terrorism and economic growth in Pakistan over the period 1970–2016, while considering the role of capital per worker and structural breaks. We use the non-linear ARDL approach to establish the long-run association and to estimate the short-run and long-run effects accordingly. The results indicate the presence of asymmetries in both long and short run. Moreover, 1% decrease in terrorism results in an increase of per capita income by 0.02% in the long run and 0.001% in the short run. Assuming symmetry, the long run capital share is 0.47. In asymmetric relation, a 1% increase in capital share increases output by 0.55%, whereas a 1% decrease in capital stock decreases output by 0.26%. The break effects show that the years 1993 and 2004 have negative effects on growth. The vector error correction model-based causality results indicate a unidirectional causality from terrorism to per capita income. Overall, the results highlight that terrorism is growth retarding.

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Linkages Between Employment and Net FDI Inflow: Insights from Individual as Well as Panel Data for Emerging South Asian Labour Market

Global Business Review ◽

10.1177/0972150919873501 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 097215091987350

Author(s):

Ramesh Chandra Das ◽

Kamal Ray

Keyword(s):

Panel Data ◽

Error Correction ◽

Labour Market ◽

South Asian ◽

Wald Test ◽

Individual Country ◽

Employment Level ◽

Long Run ◽

Short Run ◽

Per Capita

In emerging labour market, particularly, the direct and indirect association between employment level and foreign direct investment (FDI) in a dynamic economy is non-deniable. Like private and public investments, FDI promotes employment generating agenda and at the same time, sound employment scenario of an economy attracts FDI to inflow. Under this backdrop, the present study attempts to examine whether employment and net FDI inflow have long-run associations and short-run dynamics in South Asian economies for the period 1991–2016. Applying cointegration and Granger causality tests for individual country level and panel cointegration, vector error correction and Wald test on the two standardized variables—employment–population ratio and per capita net FDI inflow—reveal that the two indicators have cointegrating relations for Bangladesh and Nepal and FDI makes a cause to employment generation in Bangladesh only. Further, the panel data exercise shows the existence of long-run or equilibrium relations linking the two indicators without significant error correction results. The Wald test results show that there is short-run causality working from employment ratio to per capita FDI and vice versa. The study, thus, prescribes for ensuring quality environment in the concerned domestic economies of the region so that employment opportunities invite FDI inflow to their territories.

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The long run impact of immigration on labor market in an advanced economy

International Journal of Social Economics ◽

10.1108/ijse-12-2013-0291 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 42 (4) ◽

pp. 356-367

Author(s):

Faridul Islam ◽

Saleheen Khan

Keyword(s):

Labor Market ◽

Gdp Per Capita ◽

Advanced Economy ◽

Content Type ◽

Dynamic Relationship ◽

Long Run ◽

The Usa ◽

Short Run ◽

Per Capita ◽

The Impact

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the dynamic relationship among immigration rate, GDP per capita, and and real wage rates in the USA. Design/methodology/approach – The paper implements the Johansen-Juselius (1990, 1992) cointegration technique to test for a long-run relationship; and for short-run dynamics the authors apply Granger causality tests under the vector error-correction model. Findings – The results show that the long-run causality runs from GDP per capita to immigration, not vice versa. Growing economy attracts immigrants. The authors also find that immigration flow depresses average weekly earnings of the natives in the long-run. Originality/value – The authors are not aware of any study on the USA addressing the impact of immigrants on labor market using a tripartite approach by explicitly incorporating economic growth. It is therefore important to pursue a theoretically justified empirical model in search of a relation to resolve on apparent immigration debate.

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Symmetric and Asymmetric Impact of Poverty, Income Inequality, and Population on Carbon Emission in Pakistan: New Evidence From ARDL and NARDL Co-Integration

Frontiers in Environmental Science ◽

10.3389/fenvs.2021.666362 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 9 ◽

Author(s):

Salim Khan ◽

Wang Yahong

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Income Inequality ◽

Environmental Degradation ◽

Carbon Emissions ◽

Carbon Emission ◽

Policy Implications ◽

Gdp Per Capita ◽

Long Run ◽

Asymmetric Impact ◽

Per Capita

Several researchers have studied the relationship between poverty and environmental degradation, as these concerns are remained at top priority in achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, the symmetric and asymmetric impact of poverty and income inequality along with population and economic growth on carbon emissions (CO2e) has not been studied in the case of Pakistan. For this purpose, the short and long-run impact of poverty, income inequality, population, and GDP per capita on CO2e investigated by applying the Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) along with Non-linear Autoregressive Distributive Lag (NARDL) co-integration approach in the context of Pakistan for period 1971–2015. The symmetric results of the current study show poverty and population density along with GDP per capita increase carbon emissions in both the short and long-run, while income inequality has no impact on carbon emissions in the short-run. While in the long-run the symmetric results show that income inequality weakens environmental degradation in terms of carbon emissions. The analysis of NARDL also supports the results obtained from ARDL and suggests a positive effect of poverty, population, and economic growth on carbon emission in Pakistan. The empirical findings of the current study provide policy implications in light of the United Nation's SDGs for the development of Pakistan.

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Revisiting Environmental Kuznets Curve in Relation to Economic Development and Energy Carbon Emission Efficiency: Evidence from Suzhou, China

Energies ◽

10.3390/en15010062 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 15 (1) ◽

pp. 62

Author(s):

Ming Wen ◽

Mingxing Li ◽

Naila Erum ◽

Abid Hussain ◽

Haoyang Xie ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Economic Development ◽

Carbon Emissions ◽

Environmental Kuznets Curve ◽

Carbon Emission ◽

Energy Use ◽

Trade Openness ◽

Positive Sign ◽

Kuznets Curve ◽

Total Energy Consumption ◽

Long Run

This study empirically examines the effect of economic development on carbon emissions and revisits the environmental Kuznets curve in Suzhou, China. The study made use of the Gross Domestic Product Per Capita (GDPPC) of Suzhou, China as an indicator of economic development as it depicts the entire developmental ecosystem that indicates the level of production activities and total energy consumption. Bearing this in mind, the authors postulate that economic development directly increases carbon emissions through industrial and domestic consumptions. For this purpose, linear and non-linear approaches to cointegration are applied. The study finds the existence of an inverted U-shape relationship between economic development and carbon emission in the long run. Trade openness and industrial share are positively contributing to increasing carbon emissions. Energy use shows a positive sign but an insignificant association with carbon emissions. The study concludes that carbon emissions in Suzhou should be further decreased followed by policy recommendations.

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The Relationship between Government Debt and Social Welfare

Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan ◽

10.29259/jep.v19i1.13786 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 19 (1) ◽

pp. 125-134

Author(s):

Muhammad Kivlan Reftreka Nugraha ◽

Hefrizal Handra

Keyword(s):

Social Welfare ◽

Negative Correlation ◽

Government Debt ◽

Poverty Rate ◽

Gdp Per Capita ◽

Poverty Level ◽

Long Run ◽

Short Run ◽

Per Capita ◽

The Relationship

This study aims to analyze the relationship between government debt and social welfare in Indonesia in 1980-2019. The data used in this research is secondary data using time series data. The analysis used is the Error Correction Model (ECM). The findings result from the first model show that in the short-run, additional debt-to-GDP was not significant to the poverty level and GDP per capita. Meanwhile, the long-run, additional debt-to-GDP is significant to the poverty level and GDP per capita. The results also find that in the long run additional debt-to-GDP is positively correlated with poverty levels in Indonesia, meaning that additional debt-to-GDP increases the poverty rate in Indonesia. For GDP per capita, additional debt-to-GDP has a negative correlation. The inflation, tax-to-GDP, and GDP are not significant to the poverty rate in the short-run. Meanwhile, the long run, the additional debt-to-GDP ratio and GDP variable is significant to the poverty rate, and has a positif and negative correlation. The findings from second model also indicate that population and inflation are significant and positively correlated with the poverty level, but tax-to-GDP ratio is not significant on GDP per capita in the short-run. Meanwhile, the long run, the population and tax-to-GDP are significant to GDP per capita. Total population has a positive correlation, while tax-to-GDP ratio has a negative correlation.

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Implication of Coal Expansion and Regional Energy Trading Center to Climate Goal: Dual Sustainability Analysis

10.21203/rs.3.rs-804220/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Edmund Ntom Udemba

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Economic Performance ◽

Environmental Sustainability ◽

Ecological Footprint ◽

Energy Use ◽

Kuznets Curve ◽

Per Capita Gdp ◽

Long Run ◽

Short Run ◽

Per Capita

Abstract This current study seeks to investigate the policy implication of Turkey’s recent energy policies on its sustainable development. This study uses Turkey’s country-specific data and series of 1974 to 2018 for effective investigation and justification of the findings of this study with emphasis on both short run and long run implications. Three models were fitted to achieve study objectives to accommodate both environmental sustainability and economic impacts. Ecological footprint was considered better measure and used as proxy for the environment related model. In summary, with environment models, the selected series (per capita GDP, Industrialization, agriculture, coal as a single energy use and mixed energy use) except per capita GDP2 were found positively and significantly related to ecological footprint both in short run and long run which translates to poor performance of Turkey’s environment. Also, using economic growth model, the selected series (Industrialization, energy use and agriculture) were all confirmed positively and significantly related to the economic growth (per capita GDP). Additionally, Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) was established for Turkey’s environment and economic performance. Furthermore, using Granger causality as robust check to these findings, a nexus was found among the series confirming the validity of the cointegration (short and long run policies) estimations and results. In congruence with literature and hypotheses, the results from cointegration estimation shows that the twin polices may be good to the economic performance but will spark off adverse effect on environment.JEL Classification: C1, C32, E6, L7, O4, Q3, Q4, Q5

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ECONOMETRIC MODELLING OF THE CONSUMPTION OF ELECTRICITY IN GHANA WHEN STRUCTURAL BREAKS EXIST

Journal of Economic Info ◽

10.31580/jei.v7i3.1612 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 7 (3) ◽

pp. 205-220

Author(s):

Samuel Asuamah Yeboah

Keyword(s):

Structural Breaks ◽

Trade Openness ◽

Electricity Consumption ◽

Annual Data ◽

Explanatory Variables ◽

Long Run ◽

Development Indicator ◽

Short Run ◽

World Development Indicator ◽

World Development

The research modelled electricity consumption for Ghana using annual data for the period 1971-2011, obtained from world development indicator. The research adopts the Gregory and Hansen model of cointegration for the estimation in the presence of structural breaks. The results reveal stable short run and long-run relationships among the explanatory variables and electricity consumption. The findings suggest that financial development explain electricity consumption in Ghana both in the short run and in the long run. The other variables (trade openness, price, and income) in the estimated model do not significantly explain electricity consumption. Therefore, they are not reliable policy variables in managing electricity consumption.

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Determinants of Household Debt in Botswana: 1994-2012

Journal of Economics and Public Finance ◽

10.22158/jepf.v1n1p14 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 1 (1) ◽

pp. 14 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Faith M. Zimunya ◽

Mpho Raboloko

Keyword(s):

Interest Rates ◽

Money Supply ◽

Gdp Per Capita ◽

Household Debt ◽

Vector Error Correction ◽

Vector Error ◽

Long Run ◽

Short Run ◽

Per Capita ◽

The Relationship

The paper identifies the factors that are influential in determining the growth of household debt in Botswana. Understanding the relationship between household debt and other economic indicators is an important step towards formulating focused and effective policies that control the effects of household debt on the whole economy. Using quarterly data from the first quarter of 1994 to the second quarter of 2012, the paper employs the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to analyse the influence of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, interest rates, inflation, household consumption and money supply on household debt. The findings indicate that GDP per capita, interest rates and money supply determine changes in household debt in the long-run. Further analysis shows that lagged household debt, interest rates and money supply influence changes in household debt in the short-run.

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