scholarly journals The Uncertainty Contagion: Revealing the Interrelated, Cascading Uncertainties of Managed Retreat

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 736 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christina Hanna ◽  
Iain White ◽  
Bruce Glavovic
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
At Risk ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
Natural Hazard ◽  
Risk Exposure ◽  
Climate Change Risks ◽  
Risk Communities ◽  
Forms Of Knowledge

Managed retreat presents a dilemma for at-risk communities, and the planning practitioners and decisionmakers working to address natural hazard and climate change risks. The dilemma boils down to the countervailing imperatives of moving out of harm’s way versus retaining ties to community and place. While there are growing calls for its use, managed retreat remains challenging in practice—across diverse settings. The approach has been tested with varied success in a number of countries, but significant uncertainties remain, such as regarding who ‘manages’ it, when and how it should occur, at whose cost, and to where? Drawing upon a case study of managed retreat in New Zealand, this research uncovers intersecting and compounding arenas of uncertainty regarding the approach, responsibilities, legality, funding, politics and logistics of managed retreat. Where uncertainty is present in one domain, it spreads into others creating a cascading series of political, personal and professional risks that impact trust in science and authority and affect people’s lives and risk exposure. In revealing these mutually dependent dimensions of uncertainty, we argue there is merit in refocusing attention away from policy deficits, barrier approaches or technical assessments as a means to provide ‘certainty’, to instead focus on the relations between forms of knowledge and coordinating interactions between the diverse arenas: scientific, governance, financial, political and socio-cultural; otherwise uncertainty can spread like a contagion, making inaction more likely.

Case study and event analysis for mitigation of unpredictable volcanic hazard

Impact ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 (3) ◽  
pp. 26-28
Author(s):  
Tsukasa Ohba
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Graduate School ◽  
Volcanic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Mitigation ◽  
Scientific Discipline ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Event Analysis ◽  
Traditional Methods ◽  
Risk Communities

Volcanology is an extremely important scientific discipline. Shedding light on how and why volcanoes erupt, how eruptions can be predicted and their impact on humans and the environment is crucial to public safety, economies and businesses. Understanding volcanoes means eruptions can be anticipated and at-risk communities can be forewarned, enabling them to implement mitigation measures. Professor Tsukasa Ohba is a scientist based at the Graduate School of International Resource Studies, Akita University, Japan, and specialises in volcanology and petrology. Ohba and his team are focusing on volcanic phenomena including: phreatic eruptions (a steam-driven eruption driven by the heat from magma interacting with water); lahar (volcanic mudflow); and monogenetic basalt eruptions (which consist of a group of small monogenetic volcanoes, each of which erupts only once). The researchers are working to understand the mechanisms of these phenomena using Petrology. Petrology is one of the traditional methods in volcanology but has not been applied to disastrous eruptions before. The teams research will contribute to volcanic hazard mitigation.

scholarly journals Fostering sustainable tribal economies in a time of climate change

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ema Maria Bargh ◽  
SL Douglas ◽  
Annie Te One
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Environmental Management ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
Indigenous Peoples ◽  
Geographical Society ◽  
Local Resources ◽  
Energy Needs ◽  
Management Plans

In this article, we explore how Maori tribal organisations are responding to calls by other Indigenous peoples to become more sustainable in a time of climate change. From a close examination of tribal Environmental Management Plans, we move to a specific case study in the Bay of Plenty area, Ngati Kea/Ngati Tuara. Ultimately, we suggest that many tribal organisations are seeking to respond to climate change and transition to becoming producers of their own food and energy needs, and are often articulating these responses in relation to specific local resources and contexts. © 2014 New Zealand Geographical Society.

scholarly journals New Zealand Aid and Dairy Development in Sri Lanka

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Jasmine Edwards
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Development Policy ◽  
Market Potential ◽  
Dairy Consumption ◽  
Dairy Development

<p>New Zealand’s aid investment in dairy development is seen, on the one hand, as a means to improve economic, health and food security issues in developing countries. Dairy development, further, is linked to New Zealand’s trade interests and supports industry expansion strategies that target the market potential in developing countries. On the other hand, it is argued that dairy consumption and production should be reduced to respond to climate change and potential negative health impacts in countries with traditionally low dairy consumption. The potential impacts of dairy development on sustainable development are complex, interconnected and contradictory. Moreover, local and gendered understandings of the impacts of dairy development are underrepresented in literature.   Drawing on a sustainable livelihood approach and gender lens as a theoretical framework, this research explores smallholder farmers’ views through a case study of a New Zealand-funded aid project in Sri Lanka, the Wanni Dairy Project, which is increasing dairy production to improve rural livelihoods. In doing so, this thesis considers the multiple impacts of dairy development on sustainable livelihoods. In particular, it explores understandings of social, gender and environmental factors. Data was collected during five weeks of qualitative, case study research (using interviews, photovoice and observation methods) with female, conflict-affected farmers in Sri Lanka and stakeholders in dairy development.   This thesis contends that better understandings of the impacts of dairy development and aid can be valuably informed by local perspectives. It highlights the inherent connectivity between social, environmental and economic factors of the Wanni Dairy Project, and areas of dissonance between local understandings of the impacts of dairy development and global discourse on sustainable development. Specifically, this thesis draws attention to the diverse impacts of increasing income, health factors, and cultural and religious factors; it highlights women’s independence, empowerment and agency, and ongoing inequities; and it addresses environmental impacts, climate change, and the implications of scale. This research, therefore, contributes to the information upon which development policy-makers and practitioners – government, development organisations and private sector actors – can base effective and sustainable development policy and practice.</p>

scholarly journals Is the Sri Lankan ecotourism industry threatened by climate change? A case study of Rekawa coastal wetland using contingent visitation approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 25 (3) ◽  
pp. 226-243
Author(s):  
Nesha Dushani Salpage ◽  
Margrethe Aanesen ◽  
Oscar Amarasinghe
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
At Risk ◽  
Coastal Wetland ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Demographic Characteristics ◽  
Sri Lankan ◽  
Environmental Index ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
The Difference

AbstractThis study investigates intended visitation behavior of tourists toward Rekawa wetland under anticipated climate change (CC) scenarios. An interview-based contingent visitation survey was conducted with 365 foreign and domestic tourists to estimate the effects of CC on future visitation. Based on two IPCC scenarios using two direct and three indirect climatic factors, we composed a CC environmental index. The results show a decline in number of trips equal to 43 per cent and 53 per cent under scenarios 1 and 2 respectively, but the difference is not significant. Foreign and domestic tourists differ significantly with regard to socio-demographic characteristics and beliefs about CC effects at Rekawa. Controlling for such differences, we demonstrate that foreign tourists are less likely than domestic tourists to reduce future visitation to Rekawa due to CC impacts. Still, the future of ecotourism at Rekawa wetland is at risk if adaptation measures are not taken to meet CC impacts.

scholarly journals Principles and process for developing participatory adaptation pathways in the primary industries

Elem Sci Anth ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas A. Cradock-Henry ◽  
Paula Blackett ◽  
Justin Connolly ◽  
Bob Frame ◽  
Edmar Teixeira ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
Data Sources ◽  
Assessment Practice ◽  
Multiple Data ◽  
Methodological Advance ◽  
Adaptation Options ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Adaptation pathways is an approach to identify, assess, and sequence climate change adaptation options over time, linking decisions to critical signals and triggers derived from scenarios of future conditions. However, conceptual differences in their development can hinder methodological advance and create a disconnect between those applying pathways approaches and the wider community of practitioners undertaking vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation assessments. Here, we contribute to close these gaps, advancing principles, and processes that may be used to guide the trajectory for adaptation pathways, without having to rely on data-rich or resource-intensive methods. To achieve this, concepts and practices from the broad pathways literature is combined with our own experience in developing adaptation pathways for primary industries facing the combined impacts of climate change and other, nonclimatic stressors. Each stage is guided by a goal and tools to facilitate discussions and produce feasible pathways. We illustrate the process with a case study from Hawke’s Bay, New Zealand, involving multiple data sources and methods in two catchments. Resulting guidelines and empirical examples are consistent with principles of adaptive management and planning and can provide a template for developing local-, regional- or issue-specific pathways elsewhere and enrich the diversity of vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation assessment practice.

Climate Change and Amplified Representations of Natural Hazards in Institutional Cultures

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Scott Bremer ◽  
Paul Schneider ◽  
Bruce Glavovic
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
Climatic Change ◽  
Natural Hazards ◽  
Social Order ◽  
Natural Hazard ◽  
Ecological Impacts ◽  
Coastal Protection ◽  
Risk Quantification ◽  
Institutional Cultures

Rapid climatic, natural and societal changes are altering the ways natural hazard risks are represented in societies, and in turn disrupting the ways people respond to these hazards. This poses an important challenge to how societies (re-)build institutions for governing or controlling risks. Institutions are systems of rules, norms and decision-making processes that structure our social interaction and practices. They organize how people define, plan for, and manage natural hazard risks; indeed, they create notions of risk. Going deeper, social sciences have defined institutions by the underlying “culture” on which they are built; the symbols, principles, core beliefs, and cognitive scripts that give institutions meaning. The culture structures how institutions represent the intertwined natural and social world that gives rise to natural hazard risks. Cultures work as a script for classing risks; giving people cues on how to understand and interpret the dangerous situations they find themselves in. Modern institutions are increasingly shaped by techno-scientific cultures, defining hazards and risks by their technically framed probability of physical harm, often expressed in terms of loss and damage. This risk quantification, and aspirations for precision, can give a false sense of control. But climatic change is already undermining, and threatening to undo, many of the long-held representations of natural and social order (and risk to this order) that steer institutions. Current case study research, in different places around the world, shows how climatic change is altering the way institutions interpret the natural hazards they manage in Bangladesh, New Zealand, and Norway for example. Dramatic climate change is confounding institutions’ cultures of risk quantification, and protection, shaking their claims to control natural hazards and undermining public trust in these institutions. One response is that institutions change the ways they define and class hazards, so that ordinary hazards are amplified as extraordinary. Faced with risks that are going beyond their experience and control, some institutions are compelled to unreflexively amplify well-intentioned protection-based responses, with at times unforeseen and disastrous consequences. Cases in Bangladesh and Norway both show how rushed river engineering works can evoke resistance from local communities. Emergency coastal protection can also have deleterious long-term social-ecological impacts, as experience shows in New Zealand. Scholars and practitioners alike recognize the need for critical reflection on how institutional cultures alter natural hazard risks according to climatic and other changes. This reflection is practical work that affects how people operate in institutions every day. It is structural work, as institutions change their rules as they learn more about risks. And it is work of social change, with social groups inside and outside institutions increasingly vocal in their criticism of changing climate risk framings. Case studies illustrate processes of institutional change, but equally, the resistance of institutions to change their cultures and notions of risk.

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