scholarly journals Quantitative Estimation and Spatiotemporal Characteristic Analysis of Price Deviation in China's Housing Market

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (24) ◽  
pp. 7232 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaoping Zhou ◽  
Zhenyang Qin ◽  
Yingjie Zhang ◽  
Linyi Zhao ◽  
Yan Song
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
Quantitative Estimation ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Housing Price ◽  
Yangtze River Delta ◽  
River Delta ◽  
Pearl River Delta Region ◽  
Characteristic Analysis ◽  
Using Data

Differences in housing prices and rental prices across cities or regions and the relationship between prices and socioeconomic fundamentals are frequent research foci in urban and real estate economics, but the existing studies on China's housing market rarely consider both housing price and rent. This study provides a framework for a quantitative analysis of a country's housing market from the perspective of supply and demand, and takes China's housing market as a case study. The current study first explores the key factors that affect housing prices and rental prices using data from 202 cities and collected from 2011 to 2014. Then, theoretical values of housing prices and rental prices in each city are estimated, and the spatiotemporal characteristics of deviation of housing prices and rental prices are analysed. The empirical findings of the current study mainly reveal the following three points. First, the determinants of housing prices and rental prices have similarities. Second, the effect of above factors shows obvious spatial heterogeneity. The coefficients of the variables are different between coastal and inland regions, indicating different demand and supply elasticities across regions. Third, the price deviation presents significant spatial agglomeration. Cities with higher price deviations are clustered in the Yangtze River Delta and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, while the price deviations are relatively mild in the Pearl River Delta region.

scholarly journals International Real Estate Review

2017 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
pp. 375-396
Author(s):  
Gary Wai Chung Wong ◽  
◽  
Lok Sang Ho ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Housing Market ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Housing Price ◽  
Price Expectations ◽  
Price Expectation ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Property Price ◽  
Explicit Consideration

This paper builds on the literature that shows policy often plays a key role in housing cycles. Using the cointegration approach which focuses on the supply and demand dynamics of the housing market, and with explicit consideration of housing price expectations proxied by the price-earning ratio in financial markets, this paper identifies two cointegrating relations: a long run demand-side relation that involves housing property price, interest rate, price expectation and income; and a supply-side relation that involves private housing completion, property price, interest rate, and building and land costs. Based on Hong Kong data from 1990 a£á¡§ 2012, which covers big cycles in the housing market, this paper suggests that policies to augment or restrain housing supply in the attempt to stabilize housing prices have been counterproductive.

scholarly journals Las Cruces housing price fluctuations

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven L. Fullerton ◽  
James H. Holcomb ◽  
Thomas M. Fullerton Jr
Keyword(s):  
Theoretical Model ◽  
Housing Market ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Housing Price ◽  
Medium Size ◽  
Single Family ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Price Fluctuations ◽  
National Housing

Purpose This paper aims to analyze the median price for existing single-family housing units in Las Cruces, New Mexico. The proposed theoretical model accounts for the interplay between supply and demand sides of a metropolitan housing market. Design/methodology/approach This study analyzes the median price for existing single-family housing units in Las Cruces, New Mexico. The proposed theoretical model accounts for the interplay between supply and demand sides of a metropolitan housing market. Explanatory variables used in the analysis are real per capita income, the housing stock, real mortgage rates, real apartment rents and the median real price of single-family units in the USA. Annual frequency data are collected for a 1971–2017 sample period. Parameter estimation is completed using two-stage generalized least squares. Empirical results confirm several, but not all, of the hypotheses associated with the underlying analytical model. In particular, Las Cruces housing prices are found to be reliably correlated with local income and national housing prices. Findings Empirical results confirm several of the hypotheses associated with the underlying analytical model. In particular, Las Cruces housing prices are found to be reliably correlated with local income and national housing prices. Research limitations/implications Results obtained support only a subset of the hypothetical relationships associated with the theoretical model. Additional testing for other small and/or medium sized is required to clarify whether these outcomes are unique to Las Cruces. Practical implications Local income fluctuations and national housing price fluctuations appear to be reliably related to housing price fluctuations for this metropolitan economy. Originality/value Comparatively little housing market research has been conducted for small and medium size urban economies. There is no guarantee that results obtained for large metropolitan housing markets are representative of smaller regional housing markets. The model developed has fairly moderate data requirements and may be applicable to other small and medium size economies such as Las Cruces.

scholarly journals Are There Any Housing Bubbles in Turkey?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Özge Korkmaz ◽  
Ebru Çağlayan Akay ◽  
Hoşeng Bülbül
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Housing Price ◽  
Economic Fundamentals ◽  
The Past ◽  
Price Increases ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Housing Bubbles ◽  
Turkish Lira

It is very important that the housing market, which meets the most basic need of people is needed for shelter from the past to the present, has a stable structure. The instability structure of the housing market is generally associated with the presence of housing bubbles. The deviation of housing prices from their basic value and not being able to be explained by economic fundamentals leads to the formation of housing bubbles. Housing bubbles can lead to permanent losses, as it may take a long time to return to normal prices. For Turkey as a developing country, it is important to identify an unstable structure in house prices discuss the basic economic factors related to this. After the global increases in housing prices, inflation, and depreciation in the Turkish lira, Turkey has become the country with the highest housing price increases globally in 2020. In the study, the presence of bubbles in the housing market for Ankara, Izmir, Istanbul, and Turkey in general, was investigated by SADF and GSADF unit root tests for the period 2010:01-2021:02. In this context, the study examines the presence of bubbles in housing prices for Ankara, Izmir, Istanbul, and Turkey in general, which are the three cities with the highest price increases. As a result of the study, the presence of bubbles in the housing market has been determined for Ankara, Istanbul, Izmir, and Turkey in general.

Property investor decisions using income and rental ratio signals

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Billie Ann Brotman
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Housing Market ◽  
Discount Rate ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Housing Price ◽  
Consumer Sentiment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Income Ratio ◽  
Real Estate Prices

PurposeThis paper, a case study, aims to consider whether the income ratio and rental ratio tracks the formation of residential housing price spikes and their collapse. The ratios are measuring the risk associated with house price stability. They may signal whether a real estate investor should consider purchasing real property, continue holding it or consider selling it. The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (Dallas Fed) calculates and publishes income ratios for Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries to measure “irrational exuberance,” which is a measure of housing price risk for a given country's housing market. The USA is a member of the organization. The income ratio idea is being repurposed to act as a buy/sell signal for real estate investors.Design/methodology/approachThe income ratio calculated by the Dallas Fed and this case study's ratio were date-stamped and graphed to determine whether the 2006–2008 housing “bubble and burst” could be visually detected. An ordinary least squares regression with the data transformed into logs and a regression with structural data breaks for the years 1990 through 2019 were modeled using the independent variables income ratio, rent ratio and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. The descriptive statistics show a gradual increase in the ratios prior to exposure to an unexpected, exogenous financial shock, which took several months to grow and collapse. The regression analysis with breaks indicates that the income ratio can predict changes in housing prices using a lead of 2 months.FindingsThe gradual increases in the ratios with predetermine limits set by the real estate investor may trigger a sell decision when a specified rate is reached for the ratios even when housing prices are still rising. The independent variables were significant, but the rent ratio had the correct sign only with the regression with time breaks model was used. The housing spike using the Dallas Fed's income ratio and this study's income ratio indicated that the housing boom and collapse occurred rapidly. The boom does not appear to be a continuous housing price increase followed by a sudden price drop when ratio analysis is used. The income ratio is significant through time, but the rental ratio and Consumer Sentiment Index are insignificant for multiple-time breaks.Research limitations/implicationsInvestors should consider the relative prices of residential housing in a neighborhood when purchasing a property coupled with income and rental ratio trends that are taking place in the local market. High relative income ratios may signal that when an unexpected adverse event occurs the housing market may enter a state of crisis. The relative housing prices to income ratio indicates there is rising housing price stability risk. Aggregate data for the country are used, whereas real estate prices are also significantly impacted by local conditions.Practical implicationsRatio trends might enable real estate investors and homeowners to determine when to sell real estate investments prior to a price collapse and preserve wealth, which would otherwise result in the loss of equity. Higher exuberance ratios should result in an increase in the discount rate, which results in lower valuations as measured by the formula net operating income dividend by the discount rate. It can also signal when to start reinvesting in real estate, because real estate prices are rising, and the ratios are relative low compared to income.Social implicationsThe graphical descriptive depictions seem to suggest that government intervention into the housing market while a spike is forming may not be possible due to the speed with which a spike forms and collapses. Expected income declines would cause the income ratios to change and signal that housing prices will start declining. Both the income and rental ratios in the US housing market have continued to increase since 2008.Originality/valueA consumer sentiment variable was added to the analysis. Prior researchers have suggested adding a consumer sentiment explanatory variable to the model. The results generated for this variable were counterintuitive. The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) price index results signaled a change during a different year than when the S&P/Case–Shiller Home Price Index is used. Many prior studies used the FHFA price index. They emphasized regulatory issues associated with changing exuberance ratio levels. This case study applies these ideas to measure relative increases in risk, which should impact the discount rate used to estimate the intrinsic value of a residential property.

scholarly journals Housing Prices in Unregulated Markets: Study on Verticalised Dwellings in Santiago de Chile

Buildings ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 6 ◽  
Author(s):  
José Francisco Vergara-Perucich ◽  
Carlos Aguirre-Nuñez
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
Affordable Housing ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
House Price ◽  
Housing Price ◽  
Housing Affordability ◽  
Price Formation ◽  
Land Values ◽  
Santiago De Chile ◽  
Data Transparency

Chile faces a housing affordability crisis, given that most of the population is unable to secure a house. While housing prices between 2008 and 2019 increased by 63.96%, wages only increased by 21.85%. This article presented an analysis of the housing price configuration for the main borough in the country—Santiago. The assessment focused on verticalised housing constructed between 2015 and 2019. The article developed an exploratory study on the price of housing in Santiago to generate a diagnosis to identify the role played by expectations of profitability when configuring price. Based on the information generated, we sought to contribute to the discussion on public policies that advance the development of affordable housing in central boroughs with high urban value, as is the case for Santiago’s borough of Greater Santiago. We hypothesised that profit expectation of real estate developers plays a key role in the housing prices, and an adjustment in the profit ratios might increase the affordability while keeping the housing market above profitable rates. This research addressed the lack of data transparency in the Chilean housing market with archival research, reconstructing costs and earnings from projects based on official registrations of transactions at the borough level. In Chile, the access to investment costs, land values, yields, and house price formation are not publicly available, even though these factors imply that many households are facing severe difficulties in paying for and accessing decent housing.

scholarly journals Urban Structure, Subway Systemand Housing Price: Evidence from Beijing and Hangzhou, China

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 669 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaoqi Zhang ◽  
Yanqiao Zheng ◽  
Lei Sun ◽  
Qiwen Dai
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Housing Price ◽  
Structural Features ◽  
Urban Structure ◽  
Constrained Clustering ◽  
The Core ◽  
Urban Core ◽  
Subway System ◽  
The Relationship

Using housing market data of Beijing and Hangzhou, China, we conduct a case study to detect how the difference of urban structure can affect the relationship between the subway system and housing prices. To quantify the characteristics of urban structure, we propose a constrained clustering method, which can not only reveal the spatial heterogeneity of the housing market, but also provides a link between heterogeneity and the underlying urban structure. Applying constrained clustering to Beijing and Hangzhou, we find that the relationship between accessibility to metro stations and housing prices is weak and vulnerable, while the improvement of commuting efficiency, measured by a key variable, the metro index, does have a robust connection to metro premium on housing units. In particular, only a large metro index can be associated with a positive metro premium. Structural features, such as the size of urban core and the existence of multiple sub-centers, influence the metro premium by affecting the value and spatial distribution of the metro index. The evidence from Beijing and Hangzhou supports that in a mono-centric city, the size of the urban core is positively associated with the metro index and the metro premium, while in a poly-centric city with a small urban core, the metro index tends to be lower in the core region and higher in the satellite regions, which enforces the metro premium to be negative in the core while positive outside of the core.

scholarly journals Integrating Ecosystem Services Supply–Demand and Spatial Relationships for Intercity Cooperation: A Case Study of the Yangtze River Delta

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (10) ◽  
pp. 4131
Author(s):  
Wenbo Cai ◽  
Tong Wu ◽  
Wei Jiang ◽  
Wanting Peng ◽  
Yongli Cai
Keyword(s):  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Yangtze River ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Spatial Relations ◽  
Yangtze River Delta ◽  
River Delta ◽  
Spatial Relationships ◽  
Environmental Cooperation ◽  
The Yrd

Transboundary environmental problems caused by urban expansion and economic growth cannot be solved by individual cities. Successful intercity environmental cooperation relies on the clear identification and definition of the rights and obligations of each city. An Ecosystem services (ES) approach not only budgets the ES supply and demand of a city, but also defines the spatial relationships between Services Provisioning Areas (SPA) and Services Benefiting Areas (SBA). However, to date, quantitative studies integrating ES budgets and spatial relations have been scarce. This study integrates ecosystem services supply–demand budgeting with flow direction analysis to identify intercity environmental cooperation in the highly urbanized Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region of China for water-related ecosystem services (flood protection, erosion regulation and water purification). The results demonstrated that there were significant spatial mismatches in the supply and demand of three water-related ES among 16 core cities in the YRD region: five to six cities in the southern part of the region had significant service surpluses, while ten to 11 cities in the north–central part had significant service deficits. We then went on to offer definitions for Ecosystem Services Surplus City, Ecosystem Services Deficit City and Ecosystem Services Balance City, as well as Service Provisioning City, Service Benefiting City and Service Connecting City in which to categorize cities in the YRD Region. Furthermore, we identified two intercity cooperation types and two non-cooperation types. This framework can be used to promote ecological integration in highly urbanized regions to advance sustainable development.

scholarly journals HOUSING POLICIES IN SINGAPORE: EVALUATION OF RECENT PROPOSALS AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR REFORM

2014 ◽  
Vol 59 (03) ◽  
pp. 1450025 ◽  
Author(s):  
SOCK-YONG PHANG ◽  
DAVID LEE ◽  
ALAN CHEONG ◽  
KOK-FAI PHOON ◽  
KAROL WEE
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Housing Affordability ◽  
Property Taxes ◽  
Housing Supply ◽  
Housing Policies ◽  
Global Liquidity ◽  
The Government

The Singapore housing market is unusual in its high homeownership rate, the dominance of HDB housing, and the extensive intervention of the government in regulating housing supply and demand in both the HDB and private housing sectors. Recent rapid population increases in a low interest rate and high global liquidity environment has resulted in accelerated house prices increases in Singapore. Earlier this year, the government launched "Our Singapore Conversation" of which discussion on housing policies constitutes one major component. This "conversation" comes in the wake of several consecutive rounds of measures to stabilize housing prices using various instruments. This paper evaluates the main policy changes proposed and makes recommendations for housing market reforms: (i) the government need to clarify goals of housing policies and make available more detailed data on the foreign component of our population for better analysis of housing markets; (ii) the housing supply regime should target an overall effective vacancy rate that encompasses both the Housing and Development Board (HDB) and private sector; (iii) policy makers need to monitor carefully excess demand indicators for housing in addition to housing affordability indicators over the entire spectrum of incomes and household types; (iv) housing REITs should be established to provide an alternative investment option as well as to develop an efficient and affordable rental sector; and (v) in addition to macroprudential measures, owner-occupancy requirements and fiscal measures such as stamp duties and property taxes could be further utilized to reduce the foreign demand for Singapore housing and real estate.

Exploring the trends and potential drivers of surface ozone in eastern China in 2015-2018

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ning Yang ◽  
Yanru Bai ◽  
Yong Zhu ◽  
Nan Ma ◽  
Qiaoqiao Wang
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Surface Ozone ◽  
Eastern China ◽  
Yangtze River Delta ◽  
River Delta ◽  
Pearl River Delta Region ◽  
Chemical Transport Model ◽  
Delta Region ◽  
Almost All

<p>In the last six years, China has experienced significant improvement in air quality due to great emission reduction efforts. However, ozone concentrations are still slowly increasing in three major regions of eastern China, respectively Jing-Jin-Ji(JJJ), Yangtze River Delta region(YRD) and Pearl River Delta region(PRD). It is shown from the 2015-2018 national urban air quality real-time release platform that the surface ozone in JJJ, YRD and PRD has increased each year and reached the highest in 2018. The monthly ozone concentration peaked in June in almost all cities of JJJ, while it had multiple peaks in other two regions (summer and autumn in YRD - and February, May and September in PRD). Simulation with a chemical transport model(GEOS-Chem) indicates that the formation of ozone is affected by the optical properties of PM<sub>2.5</sub> and also the heterogeneous uptake of N<sub>2</sub>O<sub>5</sub> on sea salt aerosol.</p>

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