scholarly journals Factors Contributing to the Relationship between Driving Mileage and Crash Frequency of Older Drivers

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (23) ◽  
pp. 6643 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lee ◽  
Guldmann ◽  
Choi
Keyword(s):  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Urban Environments ◽  
Vehicle Miles Traveled ◽  
Crash Frequency ◽  
Rural Environments ◽  
Lower Likelihood ◽  
Conditional Autoregressive ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Binomial Models

As a characteristic of senior drivers aged 65 +, the low-mileage bias has been reported in previous studies. While it is thought to be a well-known phenomenon caused by aging, the characteristics of urban environments create more opportunities for crashes. This calls for investigating the low-mileage bias and scrutinizing whether it has the same impact on other age groups, such as young and middle-aged drivers. We use a crash database from the Ohio Department of Public Safety from 2006 to 2011 and adopt a macro approach using Negative Binomial models and Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) models to deal with a spatial autocorrelation issue. Aside from the low-mileage bias issue, we examine the association between the number of crashes and the built environment and socio-economic and demographic factors. We confirm that the number of crashes is associated with vehicle miles traveled, which suggests that more accumulated driving miles result in a lower likelihood of being involved in a crash. This implies that drivers in the low mileage group are involved in crashes more often, regardless of the driver’s age. The results also confirm that more complex urban environments have a higher number of crashes than rural environments.

scholarly journals Does Loneliness Have a Cost? A Population-Wide Study of the Association Between Loneliness and Healthcare Expenditure

2021 ◽  
Vol 66 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rachelle Meisters ◽  
Daan Westra ◽  
Polina Putrik ◽  
Hans Bosma ◽  
Dirk Ruwaard ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Healthcare Expenditure ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Mental Healthcare ◽  
Multiple Sources ◽  
Related Factors ◽  
Younger Age ◽  
Unhealthy Behavior ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
Binomial Models

Objectives: Loneliness has been associated with unhealthy behavior, poorer health, and increased morbidity. However, the costs of loneliness are poorly understood.Methods: Multiple sources were combined into a dataset containing a nationally representative sample (n = 341,376) of Dutch adults (18+). The association between loneliness and total, general practitioner (GP), specialized, pharmaceutical, and mental healthcare expenditure was tested using Poisson and Zero-inflated negative binomial models, controlling for numerous potential confounders (i.e., demographic, socioeconomic, lifestyle-related factors, self-perceived health, and psychological distress), for four age groups.Results: Controlling for demographic, socioeconomic, and lifestyle-related factors, loneliness was indirectly (via poorer health) associated with higher expenditure in all categories. In fully adjusted models, it showed a direct association with higher expenditure for GP and mental healthcare (0.5 and 11.1%, respectively). The association with mental healthcare expenditure was stronger in younger than in older adults (for ages 19–40, the contribution of loneliness represented 61.8% of the overall association).Conclusion: Loneliness contributes to health expenditure both directly and indirectly, particularly in younger age groups. This implies a strong financial imperative to address this issue.

Do Denser Neighborhoods Have Safer Streets? Population Density and Traffic Safety in the Philadelphia Region

2019 ◽  
pp. 0739456X1984504 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erick Guerra ◽  
Xiaoxia Dong ◽  
Michelle Kondo
Keyword(s):  
Population Density ◽  
Traffic Safety ◽  
Urban Form ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Pedestrian Safety ◽  
Negative Binomial Models ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Binomial Models ◽  
Density Results

This study uses multilevel negative binomial models to investigate relationships between neighborhood socio-demographics, urban form, roadway characteristics, traffic collisions, injuries, and fatalities on the Philadelphia region’s streets from 2010 to 2014. We pay particular attention to neighborhood population density. Results indicate that streets in denser neighborhoods have fewer overall collisions, injuries, and fatalities. The association with pedestrian safety is mixed and somewhat uncertain across urban areas and model specifications. This study highlights the importance of population density in traffic safety and helps explain some of the variation in findings across studies examining the relationship between urban form and pedestrian safety.

scholarly journals Sex-specific and age-specific suicide mortality by method in 58 countries between 2000 and 2015

2020 ◽  
pp. injuryprev-2019-043601 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yue Wu ◽  
David C Schwebel ◽  
Yun Huang ◽  
Peishan Ning ◽  
Peixia Cheng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Suicide Mortality ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Suicide Method ◽  
Suicide Rates ◽  
Males And Females ◽  
Binomial Models ◽  
Country Specific

ObjectiveTo examine recent changes in sex-specific and age-specific suicide mortality by method across countries.MethodsUsing mortality data from the WHO mortality database, we compared sex-specific, age-specific and country-specific suicide mortality by method between 2000 and 2015. We considered seven major suicide methods: poisoning by pesticides, all other poisoning, firearms and explosives, hanging, jumping from height, drowning and other methods. Changes in suicide mortality were quantified using negative binomial models among three age groups (15–44 years, 45–64 years, and 65 years and above) for males and females separately.ResultsSuicide mortality declined substantially for both sexes and all three age groups studied in 37 of the 58 included countries between 2000 and 2015. Males consistently had much higher suicide mortality rates than females in all 58 countries. Hanging was the most common suicide method in the majority of 58 countries. Sex-specific suicide mortality varied across 58 countries significantly for all three age groups. The spectrum of suicide method generally remained stable for 28 of 58 included countries; notable changes occurred in the other 30 countries, including especially Colombia, Finland and Trinidad and Tobago.ConclusionLikely as a result of prevention efforts as well as sociodemographic changes, suicide mortality decreased substantially in 37 of the included 58 countries between 2000 and 2015. Further actions are needed to explore specific drivers of the recent changes (particularly for increases in eight countries), to understand substantial disparities in suicide rates across countries, and to develop interventions to reduce suicide rates globally.

scholarly journals Density or Connectivity: What Are the Main Causes of the Spatial Proliferation of COVID-19 in Korea?

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (10) ◽  
pp. 5084
Author(s):  
Yun Jo ◽  
Andy Hong ◽  
Hyungun Sung
Keyword(s):  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Urban Environments ◽  
Regional Government ◽  
Urban Spatial Structure ◽  
Urban Centers ◽  
Urban Density ◽  
Two Measures ◽  
Government Websites ◽  
Binomial Models

COVID-19 has sparked a debate on the vulnerability of densely populated cities. Some studies argue that high-density urban centers are more vulnerable to infectious diseases due to a higher chance of infection in crowded urban environments. Other studies, however, argue that connectivity rather than population density plays a more significant role in the spread of COVID-19. While several studies have examined the role of urban density and connectivity in Europe and the U.S., few studies have been conducted in Asian countries. This study aims to investigate the role of urban spatial structure on COVID-19 by comparing different measures of urban density and connectivity during the first eight months of the outbreak in Korea. Two measures of density were derived from the Korean census, and four measures of connectivity were computed using social network analysis of the Origin-Destination data from the 2020 Korea Transport Database. We fitted both OLS and negative binomial models to the number of confirmed COVID-19 patients and its infection rates at the county level, collected individually from regional government websites in Korea. Results show that both density and connectivity play an important role in the proliferation of the COVID-19 outbreak in Korea. However, we found that the connectivity measure, particularly a measure of network centrality, was a better indicator of COVID-19 proliferation than the density measures. Our findings imply that policies that take into account different types of connectivity between cities might be necessary to contain the outbreak in the early phase.

scholarly journals Costs of loneliness: the association between loneliness and healthcare expenditure

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽  
Author(s):  
R Meisters ◽  
D Westra ◽  
P Putrik ◽  
H Bosma ◽  
D Ruwaard ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Healthcare Expenditure ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Mental Healthcare ◽  
Multiple Sources ◽  
Related Factors ◽  
Younger Age ◽  
Direct Association ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
Binomial Models

Abstract Background Loneliness is a growing issue. It has been associated with a range of unhealthy behaviors, poorer health, and increased morbidity. However, the healthcare costs of loneliness are poorly understood as limited existing research on loneliness focused on older age populations, few expenditure categories, and controlled for just a few potential confounders. Our study aims to fill this evidence gap. Methods Multiple sources were combined into a dataset containing a nationally representative sample (n = 341,376) of Dutch adults (>18 y.o.). The association between loneliness and total, general practitioner (GP), specialized, pharmaceutical, and mental healthcare expenditure was tested using Poisson and Zero-inflated negative binomial models, controlling for numerous potential confounders (i.e. demographic, socioeconomic, lifestyle-related factors, self-perceived health, and psychological distress), for multiple age groups. Excess expenditure attributed to loneliness was extrapolated to the entire population. Results Controlling for demographic, socioeconomic, and lifestyle-related factors, loneliness was indirectly (via poorer health) associated with higher expenditure in all categories. In fully adjusted models, it showed a direct association with higher expenditure for GP and mental healthcare (0.5% and 11.1%, respectively). The association with mental healthcare expenditure was stronger in younger than in older adults (for ages 19-40, the contribution of loneliness represented 61.8% of the overall association). Conclusions Loneliness contributes to health expenditure both directly and indirectly, particularly in younger age groups. This implies a strong financial imperative to address this issue. Key messages Loneliness is associated with increased healthcare expenditure independent of demographic and socioeconomic factors. Excess healthcare expenditure related to loneliness are particularly apparent in mental healthcare and in younger age groups.

Does Land Use Matter? Understanding Homicide Counts Beyond the Effects of Social Disorganization

2019 ◽  
Vol 24 (4) ◽  
pp. 311-332
Author(s):  
Alana R. Inlow
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Social Disorganization ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Positive Association ◽  
Criminological Theory ◽  
Neighborhood Characteristics ◽  
Single Family ◽  
Mixed Use ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Binomial Models

This study assesses the relationship between land use, measured as percent zoning designation per square kilometer in a census tract, and homicide counts in Portland, Oregon, while controlling for other neighborhood characteristics. Negative binomial models are implemented to account for the overdispersed homicide count indicator. Results suggest that some land use variables—specifically, mixed-use residential (positive association) and single-family residential (negative association)—have significant predictive value for homicide counts beyond neighborhood characteristics and socioeconomic variables deemed important by criminological theory and research.

Case Study using Probe Vehicle Speeds to Assess Roadway Safety in Georgia

2020 ◽  
Vol 2674 (11) ◽  
pp. 554-562
Author(s):  
David J. Ederer ◽  
Michael O. Rodgers ◽  
Michael P. Hunter ◽  
Kari E. Watkins
Keyword(s):  
Performance Monitoring ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Performance Metrics ◽  
Large Body ◽  
Vehicle Speed ◽  
Crash Frequency ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Probe Vehicle ◽  
Performance Metric ◽  
The Relationship

Speed is a primary risk factor for road crashes and injuries. Previous research has attempted to ascertain the relationship between individual vehicle speeds, aggregated speeds, and crash frequency on roadways. Although there is a large body of research linking vehicle speeds to safety outcomes, there is not a widely applied performance metric for safety based on regularly reported speeds. With the increasingly widespread availability of probe vehicle speed data, there is an opportunity to develop network-level safety performance metrics. This analysis examined the relationship between percentile speeds and crashes on a principal arterial in Metropolitan Atlanta. This study used data from the National Performance Metric Research Data Set (NPMRDS), the Georgia Electronic Accident Reporting System, and the Highway Performance Monitoring System. Negative binomial regression models were used to analyze the relationship between speed percentiles, and speed differences to crash frequency on roadway sections. Results suggested that differences in speed percentiles, a measure of speed dispersion, are related to the frequency of crashes. Based on the models, the difference in the 85th percentile and median speed is proposed as a performance metric. This difference is easily measured using NPMRDS probe vehicle speeds, and provides a practical performance metric for assessing safety on roadways.

scholarly journals Selective disappearance of great tits with short telomeres in urban areas

2017 ◽  
Vol 284 (1862) ◽  
pp. 20171349 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pablo Salmón ◽  
Johan F. Nilsson ◽  
Hannah Watson ◽  
Staffan Bensch ◽  
Caroline Isaksson
Keyword(s):  
Urban Environment ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Strong Predictor ◽  
Adult Population ◽  
Later Life ◽  
Urban Environments ◽  
Phenotypic Traits ◽  
Telomere Attrition ◽  
Rural Environments ◽  
The Relationship

Urban environments pose novel challenges, as well as opportunities, for urban-dwelling wildlife. Although differences have been reported in several phenotypic traits (e.g. morphology, physiology and behaviour) between urban and rural populations, it is poorly understood whether this affects individual fitness. Telomere dynamics are posited as one possible mechanism underlying senescence and mortality. It was recently shown that telomere shortening is accelerated when growing up in an urban, compared with a rural, environment. However, the implications of accelerated telomere attrition for fitness are still unclear. Here, we examine the relationship between telomere length (TL) and survival in a bird common to urban and rural environments, and during both early and later life. The results reveal that TL is a strong predictor of post-fledging survival and recruitment in both habitats but, crucially, selective disappearance of individuals with short telomeres early in life is more pronounced in the urban environment, resulting in a longer average TL among the adult population. However, following recruitment, we found no difference in the relationship between TL and survival between the urban and rural environments. This indicates that the urban environment has negative effects in early life, while during later life the benefits could potentially outweigh the costs.

Effect of Roadside Features on Single-Vehicle Roadway Departure Crashes on Rural Two-Lane Roads

2012 ◽  
Vol 2309 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-29 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yichuan Peng ◽  
Srinivas Reddy Geedipally ◽  
Dominique Lord
Keyword(s):  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Motor Vehicle ◽  
Large Body ◽  
Crash Frequency ◽  
Side Slope ◽  
Single Vehicle ◽  
Lateral Clearance ◽  
Slope Condition ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

One of the most important tasks in traffic safety is investigating the relationship between motor vehicle crashes and the geometric characteristics of roadways. A large body of previous work provides meaningful results on the impact of geometric design on crash frequency. However, little attention has been paid to the relationship between roadway departure crashes and relevant roadside features such as lateral clearance, side slope condition, and driveway density. The lack of roadside data for use in estimating rigorous statistical models has been a major obstacle to roadside safety research for many years. This study investigated the relationship between single-vehicle roadway departure crashes and roadside features. Two types of models were developed: a negative binomial model of crash frequency and a multinomial logit model of crash severity. The study used field data collected in four districts in Texas. The results showed that shoulder width, lateral clearance, and side slope condition had a significant effect on roadway departure crashes. Crash frequency and severity increased when lateral clearance or shoulder width decreased and when the side slope condition became worse. Driveway density was not found to have a significant influence on crash frequency or severity.

State Failure and Transnational Terrorism

2016 ◽  
Vol 62 (3) ◽  
pp. 471-495 ◽  
Author(s):  
Justin George
Keyword(s):  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Estimating Equation ◽  
State Failure ◽  
Generalized Estimating Equation ◽  
Failed States ◽  
Transnational Terrorism ◽  
States Experience ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Concentration Curves ◽  
Binomial Models

Based on a country panel from 1995 to 2013, this study examines the relationship between state failure and transnational terrorism with respect to perpetrator’s proximity to the target and logistical complexity of attacks. Using concentration curves and generalized estimating equation negative binomial models, the study shows that failed states experience significantly more transnational terrorism when the perpetrators are from the home country. But these states do not produce terrorists who cross borders and carry out attacks in other countries, neither do they attract foreign perpetrators. The latter suggests that conditions in failed states present major operational challenges to foreign terrorists. State failure also causes more logistically complex attacks due to lack of effective counterterrorism measures by failed states. The main results hold true for both relative and dichotomous measures of state failure.

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