scholarly journals Holiday Travel Behaviour and Correlated CO2 Emissions—Modelling Trend and Future Scenarios for Austrian Tourists

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (22) ◽  
pp. 6418 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marie Lisa Kapeller ◽  
Manfred Füllsack ◽  
Georg Jäger
Keyword(s):  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Travel Demand ◽  
Current Trend ◽  
Travel Behaviour ◽  
Household Wealth ◽  
Calculation Model ◽  
Air Travel ◽  
Main Mode ◽  
Software Models ◽  
Emissions Modelling

The footprint of tourism through travel is contributing significantly to the accumulation of human-made CO2. Due to different options in transportation, resulting emissions depend strongly on the choices of individuals on how to travel. In Austria, land travel is the main mode of transportation, though air travel has shown a significant increase during the last decades. We present a model to estimate past and future emission trends of land and air travel for domestic (inbound) and international (outbound) travel destinations. For this, we use a combination of two software models, a social-economic individual-based model to simulate the decision processes of holiday travel and an emission calculation model to estimate single travel-based CO2 emissions. Our model is supported by data (reference year 2016) on tourism demand, holiday destinations, household wealth and emissions of different transportation modes. Our model evaluation successfully reproduced historical data of travel demand in the period 2003–2019 and explores several future trends of (a) business-as-usual, (b) green transition and (c) aviation preference increase. We calculated a current CO2 footprint of 5.8 million tonnes in 2019, which could increase to 7.3 million tonnes by 2030 if the current trend continues. A necessary decrease of transportation emissions is only possible when reducing air travel. In case of a green transition towards more land travel, total emissions could be kept constant compared to current emission levels. However, an overall reduction of holiday travel related CO2 below 3.5 million tonnes has not been observed even under the best circumstances due to projected increases in the total population and increases in wealth.

scholarly journals The impact of COVID-19 on air travel demand and CO2 emissions in Brazil

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
João Pedro Bazzo ◽  
Carlos Kauê Vieira Braga ◽  
Rafael H. M. Pereira
Keyword(s):  
Fuel Consumption ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Travel Demand ◽  
Air Travel ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Sharp Drop ◽  
Commercial Aviation ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
Air Travel Demand ◽  
The Impact

The drastic reduction in economic activities caused by the COVID-19 pandemic creates a unique and timely opportunity to examine the environmental impacts of human activity. In several countries, the aviation sector was dramatically affected by the travel restrictions, resulting in a change of trip demand and in a drop of fuel consumption. Nonetheless, little attention has been paid to the impact of the pandemic on air travel demand, one of the fastest-growing sources of emissions globally. This paper estimates the impact of the COVID-19 on air travel demand and emissions in Brazil, the largest aviation market in Latin America. Combining detailed flight data with daily number of passengers and fuel consumption and data on combustion emission factors, we estimate CO2 emissions of domestic flights in Brazil. A Bayesian structural time-series model was used to estimate the impact of COVID-19 on daily trends of air travel demand and emissions. We find that the COVID-19 pandemic caused a reduction of 68% on national passengers and 62% in total CO2 emissions compared to what would have occurred if the pandemic had not happened. It avoided a total of approximately 4.6 megatons of CO2 between March and December 2020 in Brazil, the equivalent of one year of domestic flight emissions in France. Despite such a sharp drop in commercial aviation, passenger demand recovered to 64.2% of pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2020. CO2 emissions had a 52.6% reduction in 2020 and the emissions per capita increased after the COVID-19 outbreak. Although the precise impact of the COVID-19 on this figure is not yet fully understood, the fast recovery in domestic flights by December 2020 indicates that the emissions could soon return to pre-pandemic levels, demonstrating the challenges of reducing emissions in the aviation sector in the short term.

scholarly journals Disappearance of American Wealth and Its Impact on Air Travel: An Empirical Investigation

2012 ◽  
Vol 51 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dipasis Bhadra
Keyword(s):  
Stock Prices ◽  
Travel Demand ◽  
Household Wealth ◽  
Air Travel ◽  
Net Worth ◽  
Current Income ◽  
Passenger Demand ◽  
Relevant Variables ◽  
Good Proxy ◽  
Quantitative Impact

Recently, the Federal Reserve reported that U.S. households net worth dropped by $17 trillion, a stunning 26% loss from the peak of the cycle to the bottom. The precipitous drop in home and stock prices that continued through the first quarter of 2009 accelerated the drop in household wealth. Meanwhile, U.S. air travel suffered tremendously. While the economy contracted by around 1% in 2008 and the first part of 2009, total domestic enplanement dropped more than 4% over its 2007 level. Gross domestic product (GDP) or some other measure of current income has been a good predictor of air travel in the past. While current income is considered to be a good proxy for current discretionary spending, of which air travel is only one small part, recent destruction of wealth has significantly reduced the average consumer’s traditional appetite for expenditure, including air travel. Interestingly, there is very little empirical analysis that establishes a link between wealth and air travel. The paper seeks to address this gap by asking and investigating two empirical questions: (a) Does wealth have any quantifiable impact on U.S. air travel, controlling for all other relevant variables such as current income, past wealth, fare, and credit availability? (b) What has been the quantitative impact of wealth loss on air travel? The paper finds that the household wealth loss of U.S. $17 trillion yielded a loss of air travel demand of 730,000 passengers; or a loss of revenue of $244 million. As household wealth improved during the last two years, air travel recovered. Some of the lost passenger demand has been recouped (435,000) but a complete wealth-induced recovery still seems to be far off. Results of this analysis are important for both understanding future transitions in U.S. air travel, and hence forecasting, and formulating policy responses that may be designed more narrowly and effectively.

scholarly journals Assessing CO2 Emissions from Passenger Transport with the Mixed-Use Development Model in Shenzhen International Low-Carbon City

Land ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 137
Author(s):  
Xianchun Tan ◽  
Tangqi Tu ◽  
Baihe Gu ◽  
Yuan Zeng ◽  
Tianhang Huang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Travel Demand ◽  
Development Model ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Passenger Transport ◽  
Transport Accessibility ◽  
Mixed Use ◽  
Mixed Land Use ◽  
Low Carbon City

Assessing transport CO2 emissions is important in the development of low-carbon strategies, but studies based on mixed land use are rare. This study assessed CO2 emissions from passenger transport in traffic analysis zones (TAZs) at the community level, based on a combination of the mixed-use development model and the vehicle emission calculation model. Based on mixed land use and transport accessibility, the mixed-use development model was adopted to estimate travel demand, including travel modes and distances. As a leading low-carbon city project of international cooperation in China, Shenzhen International Low-Carbon City Core Area was chosen as a case study. The results clearly illustrate travel demand and CO2 emissions of different travel modes between communities and show that car trips account for the vast majority of emissions in all types of travel modes in each community. Spatial emission differences are prominently associated with inadequately mixed land use layouts and unbalanced transport accessibility. The findings demonstrate the significance of the mixed land use and associated job-housing balance in reducing passenger CO2 emissions from passenger transport, especially in per capita emissions. Policy implications are given based on the results to facilitate sophisticated transport emission control at a finer spatial scale. This new framework can be used for assessing the impacts of urban planning on transport emissions to promote sustainable urbanization in developing countries.

scholarly journals There is a silver lining: carbon footprint reduction by holding Preventive Cardiology conference 2020 virtually

2021 ◽  
Vol 28 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
T Batool ◽  
A Neven ◽  
Y Vanrompay ◽  
M Adnan ◽  
P Dendale
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Carbon Footprint ◽  
Carbon Emission ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Air Travel ◽  
Co2 Production ◽  
Scientific Conference ◽  
Preventive Cardiology ◽  
Transport Modes

Abstract Funding Acknowledgements Type of funding sources: Other. Main funding source(s): Special Research Fund (BOF), Hasselt University Introduction The transportation sector is one of the major sectors influencing climate change, contributing around 16% of total Greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions. Aviation contributes to 12% of the transport related emissions. Among other climate change impacts, elevated heat exposure is associated with increased cardiac events and exposure to air pollution caused by GHG emissions has also well-known association with increased cardiovascular related morbidity and mortality. The global temperature rise should be restricted to less than 2 °C which requires keeping carbon emission (CO2) less than 2900 billion tonnes by the end of the 21st century. Assuming air travel a major contributing source to GHG, this study aims to raise the awareness about potential carbon emissions reduction due to air travel of international events like a scientific conference. Purpose Due to the global pandemic of COVID-19, the Preventive cardiology conference 2020 which was planned to be held at Malaga Spain, instead was held in virtual online way. This study aims to calculate the contribution of reduced CO2  emissions in tons due to ESC preventive cardiology conference 2020, which was then held online and air travel of the registered participants was avoided. Methods Anonymized participant registration information was used to determine the country and city of the 949 registered participants of the Preventive Cardiology conference 2020. It is assumed that participants would have travelled from the closest airports from their reported city locations to Malaga airport, Spain. At first, the closest city airports were determined using Google maps and flights information, then the flight emissions (direct and indirect CO2-equivalent emissions) per passenger for the given flight distances were calculated. The CO2 emissions (tons) were calculated for round trips in economy class from the participants of 68 nationalities (excluding 60 participants from Spain as they are assumed to take other modes of transport than airplane). Results In total, 1156.51 tons of CO2  emissions were saved by turning the physical conference into a virtual event. This emission amount is equivalent to the annual CO2 production of 108 people living in high-income countries. Conclusion The pandemic situation has forced us to rethink the necessity of trips by air and has shown us the feasibility of digitally organized events. The information from this study can add to the awareness about reduced amount of carbon emission due to air travel by organizing events in a virtual way when possible. Apart from only digitally organized events there are others options to reduce the carbon footprint of conferences such as limiting the number of physical attendees, encouraging the use of relatively sustainable transport modes for participants from nearby countries (e.g. international trains and use of active transport modes at conference venue etc.) and including CO2 emission offsetting costs.

Influencing travel behaviour

2019 ◽  
pp. 107-130
Author(s):  
Stewart Barr ◽  
John Preston
Keyword(s):  
Qualitative Study ◽  
Case Studies ◽  
Behaviour Change ◽  
Social Marketing ◽  
Quantitative Study ◽  
Behavioural Change ◽  
Travel Behaviour ◽  
Air Travel ◽  
The Other ◽  
Car Travel

As travel planning’s theoretical underpinnings have broadened from engineering and economics to embrace psychology and sociology, an emphasis has been placed on social marketing and nudge theory. It is argued that this is consistent with a neo-liberal trend towards governing from a distance. Using two case studies, one a qualitative study of reducing short-haul air travel, the other a quantitative study of attempts to reduce local car travel, it is found that actual behaviour change is limited. This seems to arise because behavioural change has been too narrowly defined and overly identified with personal choice.

Model Calibration and Forecasts of Air Travel Demand with Categorized Household Socioeconomic Attributes

2020 ◽  
Vol 2674 (6) ◽  
pp. 363-371
Author(s):  
Jungin Kim ◽  
Ikki Kim ◽  
Jaeyeob Shim ◽  
Hansol Yoo ◽  
Sangjun Park
Keyword(s):  
Travel Behavior ◽  
Household Income ◽  
Travel Demand ◽  
Behavioral Model ◽  
Income Group ◽  
Air Travel ◽  
Jeju Island ◽  
Demand Model ◽  
Air Travel Demand ◽  
Travel Demand Model

The objectives of this study were to (1) construct an air demand model based on household data and (2) forecast future air demand to explain the relationship between air demand and individual travel behavior. To this end, domestic passenger air travel demand at Jeju Island in South Korea was examined. A multiple regression model with numerous explanatory variables was established by examining categorized household socioeconomic data that affected air demand. The air travel demand model was calibrated for 2009–2015 based on the annual average number of visits to Jeju Island by households in certain income groups. The explanatory variable was set using a dummy variable for each household income group and the proportion of airfare to GDP per capita. Higher household income meant more frequent visits to Jeju Island, which was well-represented in the model. However, the value of the coefficient for the highest income was lower than the value for the second-highest income group. This suggested that the highest income group preferred overseas travel destinations to domestic ones. The future air demand for Jeju airport was predicted as 26,587,407 passengers in 2026, with a subsequent gradual increase to approximately 33,000,000 passengers by 2045 in this study. This study proposed an air travel demand model incorporating household socioeconomic attributes to reflect individual travel behavior, which contrasts with previous studies that used aggregate data. By constructing an air travel model that incorporated socioeconomic factors as a behavioral model, more accurate and consistent projections could be obtained.

Air Travel Demand Studies: A Review

2010 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 29-49 ◽  
Author(s):  
Min Wang ◽  
Haiyan Song
Keyword(s):  
Travel Demand ◽  
Air Travel ◽  
Air Travel Demand
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