scholarly journals An Evidential Model for Environmental Risk Assessment in Projects Using Dempster–Shafer Theory of Evidence

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (22) ◽  
pp. 6329 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hatefi ◽  
Basiri ◽  
Tamošaitienė
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Environmental Risk ◽  
Environmental Risk Assessment ◽  
Fuzzy Inference ◽  
Inference System ◽  
Dempster Shafer Theory ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Shafer Theory ◽  
Theory Of Evidence

One of the goals of sustainable development is to achieve economic and social growth according to environmental criteria. Nowadays, impact assessment is an efficient decision making method in planning and management with environmental perspectives. Environmental risk assessment is a tool to reduce the impacts and consequences of various activities on the environment in order to achieve sustainable development. One of the commonly used environmental risk assessment methods is the probability–impact matrix method, which is known as a quantitative method for risk assessment of projects. In this method, numerical estimates of probability and impact of risk occurrence are very difficult, and these factors are associated with uncertainty. When uncertainty exists, data integration is of great importance, for which the fuzzy inference system and evidence theory are known as effective methods. Unavailability of experts’ opinion and the exponential growth of the number of required fuzzy rules associated with the risk factors are two drawbacks of fuzzy inference. Dempster–Shafer’s theory of evidence is one of the popular theories used in intelligent systems for modeling and reasoning under uncertainty and inaccuracy. In this paper, an evidential model for project environmental risk assessment is proposed based on the Dempster–Shafer theory, which is capable of taking into account the uncertainties. The proposed model is used to assess the environmental risks of Maroon oil pipelines in Isfahan. In addition, the proposed model is used in the case of tunneling risk assessment taken from the subject literature. To evaluate the validity of the proposed evidential model, the results are compared in two case studies, with the results of the conventional risk assessment method and the fuzzy inference system method. The comparative results show that the proposed model has a high potential for project risk assessment under an uncertain environment.

scholarly journals PROPOSING A NEW METHODOLOGY BASED ON FUZZY LOGIC FOR TUNNELLING RISK ASSESSMENT

2014 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 82-94 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdolreza Yazdani-Chamzini
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Fuzzy Inference ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Tunnel Construction ◽  
Construction Operations ◽  
Protective Measures ◽  
Inference System ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Mine Development ◽  
Civil Defence

Tunnels are artificial underground spaces that provide a capacity for particular goals such as storage, under-ground transportation, mine development, power and water treatment plants, civil defence. This shows that the tunnel construction is a key activity in developing infrastructure projects. In many situations, tunnelling projects find themselves involved in the situations where unexpected conditions threaten the continuity of the project. Such situations can arise from the prior knowledge limited by the underground unknown conditions. Therefore, a risk analysis that can take into account the uncertainties associated with the underground projects is needed to assess the existing risks and prioritize them for further protective measures and decisions in order to reduce, mitigate and/or even eliminate the risks involved in the project. For this reason, this paper proposes a risk assessment model based on the concepts of fuzzy set theory to evaluate risk events during the tunnel construction operations. To show the effectiveness of the proposed model, the results of the model are compared with those of the conventional risk assessment. The results demonstrate that the fuzzy inference system has a great potential to accurately model such problems.

scholarly journals Sustainable Development on Indonesian Environmental Risk Assessment

2021 ◽  
Vol 819 (1) ◽  
pp. 012035
Author(s):  
Agastyo Djanardono Basoeki ◽  
Herdis Herdiansyah ◽  
Yuki M. Adhitya Wardhana
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Environmental Risk ◽  
Environmental Risk Assessment

scholarly journals Development of a hybrid AHP and Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence for project risk assessment problem

2022 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 77-94
Author(s):  
Saad M. Albogami ◽  
Mohd Khairol Anuar Bin Mohd Ariffin ◽  
Eris Elianddy Bin Supeni ◽  
Kamarul Arifin Ahmad
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Taguchi Method ◽  
Risk Indicator ◽  
Project Risk ◽  
Strategic Risk ◽  
Dempster Shafer Theory ◽  
Shafer Theory ◽  
Theory Of Evidence ◽  
Reduced Risk

In this paper, a new hybrid AHP and Dempster-Shafer Theory of Evidence is presented for solving the problem of choosing the best project among a list of available alternatives while uncertain risk factors are taken into account. The aim is to minimize overall risks. For this purpose, four groups of risk factors, including Properties, Operational and Technological, Financial, Strategic risk factors, are considered. Then using an L24 Taguchi method, several experiments with various dimensions have been designed and solved by the proposed algorithm. The outcomes are then analyzed using the Validating Index (VI), Reduced Risk Indicator (R.R.I%), and Solving time. The findings indicated that, compared to the classic AHP, the results of the proposed hybrid method were different in most cases due to uncertainty of risk factors. It was observed that the method could be safely used for selecting project problems in real industries.

scholarly journals Environmental Risk Assessment of Subway Station Construction to Achieve Sustainability Using the Intuitionistic Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process and Set Pair Analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-17
Author(s):  
Junwu Wang ◽  
Sen Liu ◽  
Yinghui Song ◽  
Jing Wang ◽  
Han Wu
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy Process ◽  
Environmental Risk ◽  
Environmental Risk Assessment ◽  
Set Pair Analysis ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Hierarchy Process ◽  
Pair Analysis

Environmental risks have a significant impact on the sustainability of subway station construction projects. This paper proposes an environmental risk assessment model based on the intuitionistic fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (IFAHP) and set pair analysis (SPA) to deal with the ambiguity and uncertainty in the assessment. An index system for environmental risk assessment is established based on a literature review and the rough set method. Subsequently, the IFAHP is used to calculate the indicator weights to describe the certainty, uncertainty, and hesitation degree of expert decisions in the weighting calculation by means of affiliation, nonaffiliation, and hesitation. Finally, SPA, which can deal with the randomness, uncertainty, and ambiguity of the indicators, is used to assess environmental risk. A case study of two typical stations (Lushan Avenue Station and Huilong Road West Station) of Metro Line 11 in Chengdu, China, is conducted. The case study results are consistent with field surveys. The evaluation results of the proposed model are more objective and reasonable than those of the traditional analytic hierarchy process, the entropy weight method, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, grey correlation analysis, and technique for order of preference by similarity to an ideal solution (TOPSIS). The research results prove the scientific validity and superiority of the proposed model.

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