scholarly journals Building Regional Sustainable Development Scenarios with the SSP Framework

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (20) ◽  
pp. 5712 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shuhui Yang ◽  
Xuefeng Cui
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Impact Assessment ◽  
Scenario Analysis ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Integrated Assessment Model ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Human Society ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel

Climate change is having an increasing effect on human society and ecosystems. The United Nations has established 17 sustainable development goals, one of which is to cope with climate change. How to scientifically explore uncertainties and hazards brought about by climate change in the future is crucial. The new Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has proposed shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) to project climate change scenarios. SSP has been analyzed globally, but how regions and nations respond to the global climate change and mitigation policies is seldom explored, which do not meet the demand for regional environmental assessment and social sustainable development. Therefore, in this paper, we reviewed and discussed how SSPs were applied to regions, and this can be summarized into four main categories: (1) integrated assessment model (IAM) scenario analysis, (2) SSPs-RCPs-SPAs framework scenario analysis, (3) downscaling global impact assessment model, and (4) regional impact assessment model simulation. The study provides alternative ways to project land use, water resource, energy, and ecosystem service in regions, which can carry out related policies and actions to address climate change in advance and help achieve sustainable development.

scholarly journals Quantifying synergies and trade-offs in the water-land-energy-food-climate nexus using a multi-model scenario approach

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan Doelman ◽  
Tom Kram ◽  
Benjamin Bodirsky ◽  
Isabelle Weindle ◽  
Elke Stehfest
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Food Production ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Sustainable Development Goals ◽  
Integrated Assessment Model ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Development Goals

<p>The human population has substantially grown and become wealthier over the last decades. These developments have led to major increases in the use of key natural resources such as food, energy and water causing increased pressure on the environment throughout the world. As these trends are projected to continue into the foreseeable future, a crucial question is how the provision of resources as well as the quality of the environment can be managed sustainably.</p><p>Environmental quality and resource provision are intricately linked. For example, food production depends on availability of water, land suitable for agriculture, and favourable climatic circumstances. In turn, food production causes climate change due to greenhouse gas emissions, and affects biodiversity through conversion of natural vegetation to agriculture and through the effects of excessive fertilizer and use of pesticides. There are many examples of the complex interlinkages between different production systems and environmental issues. To handle this complexity the nexus concept has been introduced which recognizes that different sectors are inherently interconnected and must be investigated in an integrated, holistic manner.</p><p>Until now, the nexus literature predominantly exists of local studies or qualitative descriptions. This study present the first qualitative, multi-model nexus study at the global scale, based on scenarios simultaneously developed with the MAgPIE land use model and the IMAGE integrated assessment model. The goal is to quantify synergies and trade-offs between different sectors of the water-land-energy-food-climate nexus in the context of sustainable development goals (SDGs). Each scenario is designed to substantially improve one of the nexus sectors water, land, energy, food or climate. A number of indicators that capture important aspects of both the nexus sectors and related SDGs is selected to assess whether these scenarios provide synergies or trade-offs with other nexus sectors, and to quantify the effects. Additionally a scenario is developed that aims to optimize policy action across nexus sectors providing an example of a holistic approach that achieves multiple sustainable development goals.</p><p>The results of this study highlight many synergies and trade-offs. For example, an important trade-off exists between climate change policy and food security targets: large-scale implementation of bio-energy and afforestation to achieve stringent climate targets negatively impacts food security. An interesting synergy exists between the food, water and climate sectors: promoting healthy diets reduces water use, improves water quality and increases the uptake of carbon by forests.</p>

Synergies and trade-offs for the SDGs in a deltaic socio-ecological system: Development of an Integrated Assessment Model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charlotte Marcinko ◽  
Andrew Harfoot ◽  
Tim Daw ◽  
Derek Clarke ◽  
Sugata Hazra ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Environmental Change ◽  
Integrated Assessment ◽  
Integrated Assessment Model ◽  
Ecological System ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Policy Decisions ◽  
Natural Systems ◽  
Trade Offs

<p>The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) promote sustainable development and aim to address multiple challenges including those related to poverty, hunger, inequality, climate change and environmental degradation. Interlinkages between SDGS means there is potential for interactions, synergies and trade-offs between individual goals across multiple temporal and spatial scales. We aim to develop an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) of a complex deltaic socio-ecological system where opportunities and trade-offs between the SDGs can be analysed. This is designed to inform local/regional policy. We focus on the Sundarban Biosphere Reserve (SBR) within the Indian Ganga Delta. This is home to 5.6 million often poor people with a strong dependence on rural livelihoods and also includes the Indian portion of the world’s largest mangrove forest – the Sundarbans. The area is subject to multiple drivers of environmental change operating at multiple scales (e.g. global climate change and sea-level rise, deltaic subsidence, extensive land use conversion and widespread migration). Here we discuss the challenges of linking models of human and natural systems to each other in the context of local policy decisions and SDG indicators. Challenges include linking processes derived at multiple spatial and temporal scales and data limitations. We present a framework for an IAM, based on the Delta Dynamic Emulator Model (ΔDIEM), to investigate the affects of current and future trends in environmental change and policy decisions within the SBR across a broad range of sub-thematic SDG indicators. This work brings together a wealth of experience in understanding and modelling changes in complex human and natural systems within deltas from previous projects (ESPA Deltas and DECCMA), along with local government and stakeholder expert knowledge within the Indian Ganga Delta.</p>

scholarly journals Deep mitigation of CO2 and non-CO2 greenhouse gases toward 1.5 °C and 2 °C futures

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yang Ou ◽  
Christopher Roney ◽  
Jameel Alsalam ◽  
Katherine Calvin ◽  
Jared Creason ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Greenhouse Gases ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Integrated Assessment Model ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Ghg Mitigation ◽  
Net Zero ◽  
End Use

AbstractStabilizing climate change well below 2 °C and towards 1.5 °C requires comprehensive mitigation of all greenhouse gases (GHG), including both CO2 and non-CO2 GHG emissions. Here we incorporate the latest global non-CO2 emissions and mitigation data into a state-of-the-art integrated assessment model GCAM and examine 90 mitigation scenarios pairing different levels of CO2 and non-CO2 GHG abatement pathways. We estimate that when non-CO2 mitigation contributions are not fully implemented, the timing of net-zero CO2 must occur about two decades earlier. Conversely, comprehensive GHG abatement that fully integrates non-CO2 mitigation measures in addition to a net-zero CO2 commitment can help achieve 1.5 °C stabilization. While decarbonization-driven fuel switching mainly reduces non-CO2 emissions from fuel extraction and end use, targeted non-CO2 mitigation measures can significantly reduce fluorinated gas emissions from industrial processes and cooling sectors. Our integrated modeling provides direct insights in how system-wide all GHG mitigation can affect the timing of net-zero CO2 for 1.5 °C and 2 °C climate change scenarios.

Impact assessment of common bean availability in Brazil under climate change scenarios

2021 ◽  
Vol 191 ◽  
pp. 103174
Author(s):  
Luís A.S. Antolin ◽  
Alexandre B. Heinemann ◽  
Fábio R. Marin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Impact Assessment ◽  
Common Bean ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios

MITIGATION COST AND CLIMATE DAMAGE VERSUS INCENTIVE SHIFTS OF CLIMATE COALITION

2016 ◽  
Vol 07 (04) ◽  
pp. 1650011
Author(s):  
ZILI YANG
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Bargaining Game ◽  
Integrated Assessment Model ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Good Representation ◽  
Ghg Mitigation ◽  
Mitigation Cost ◽  
The Core ◽  
Cooperative Bargaining

Climate damage and greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation cost plays important roles in a region’s willingness and incentives to join the global climate coalition. Negotiation of climate treaty can be modeled as a cooperative bargaining game of externality provision. The core of this game is a good representation of incentives of the participants. In this paper, we examine the relationship between the shocks of mitigation cost/climate damage and the shifts of the core of cooperative bargaining game of climate negotiation within the framework of RICE [Nordhaus and Yang, 1996. A regional dynamic general equilibrium model of alternative climate change strategies. American Economic Review, 86, 741–765], a widely used integrated assessment model (IAM) of climate change. Constructing a method that maps the core allocations onto a convex hull on the simplex of social welfare weights, we describe the scope of the core in simple metrics and capture the shifts of the core representation on the simplex in response to the shocks of mitigation cost and climate damage. A series of simulations are conducted in RICE to demonstrate the usefulness of the approach explored here. In addition, policy implications of methodological results are indicated.

scholarly journals Hydrologic sensitivity of the Upper San Joaquin River Watershed in California to climate change scenarios

2012 ◽  
Vol 44 (4) ◽  
pp. 723-736 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zili He ◽  
Zhi Wang ◽  
C. John Suen ◽  
Xiaoyi Ma
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sierra Nevada ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Hydrological Simulation ◽  
River Watershed ◽  
System Sensitivity ◽  
Hspf Model ◽  
San Joaquin River ◽  
San Joaquin River Watershed

To examine the hydrological system sensitivity of the southern Sierra Nevada Mountains of California to climate change scenarios (CCS), five headwater basins in the snow-dominated Upper San Joaquin River Watershed (USJRW) were selected for hydrologic simulations using the Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) model. A pre-specified set of CCS as projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were adopted as inputs for the hydrologic analysis. These scenarios include temperature increases between 1.5 and 4.5 °C and precipitation variation between 80 and 120% of the baseline conditions. The HSPF model was calibrated and validated with measured historical data. It was then used to simulate the hydrologic responses of the watershed to the projected CCS. Results indicate that the streamflow of USJRW is sensitive to the projected climate change. The total volume of annual streamflow would vary between −41 and +16% compared to the baseline years (1970–1990). Even if the precipitation remains unchanged, the total annual flow would still decrease by 8–23% due to temperature increases. A larger portion of the streamflow would occur earlier in the water year by 15–46 days due to the temperature increases, causing higher seasonal variability of streamflow.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document