scholarly journals Energy Transition Scenarios and Their Economic Impacts in the Extended Neoclassical Model of Economic Growth

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (13) ◽  
pp. 3644 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lukáš Režný ◽  
Vladimír Bureš
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Growth Model ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Energy Transition ◽  
Energy Technology ◽  
Neoclassical Growth Model ◽  
Neoclassical Growth

Introduction: Energy return on energy invested (EROEI) of fossil fuels has been declining sharply, while modern renewable energy sources generally have even lower EROEI than fossil fuels. It has been repeatedly proven that economic growth expressed in the form of growth of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is closely related to intensified energy consumption and escalated usage of natural resources in general. This problem remains scarcely explored in pure economic modelling. Objectives: This study presents a novel model titled Energy Extended Neoclassical Growth Model (EENGM), which focuses on the consequences of declining quantity and quality of extractable fossil fuels and lower quality of the succeeding renewable energy technology for economic growth. Method: The Neoclassical growth model is translated into a system dynamics format and is extended by important feedback mechanisms, which are identified as important from the literature and mostly missing from the analyzed system dynamics models with a similar scope. Two scenarios assess the EENGM performance: business as usual (BAU) and the sustainability strategy (SUS). Results: Sensitivity analysis is performed for the Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROEI) parameter and results in the investment share in GDP varying between 27 and 40%, while the energy sector investment largely displaces investment in other economic sectors. The EENGM is associated with new behavior whereby the underperforming energy sector limits GDP growth and seizes most of the available investment. The adoption of the SUS strategy causes 28% lower cumulative fossil fuel aggregate consumption which still corresponds to higher than 1.5 °C global warming compared to the preindustrial levels. Conclusion: The share of consumption in the GDP of an economy undergoing energy transition can approach levels previously seen only in totally war-oriented economies. Even omitting other negative environmental feedback, the feasibility of the successful energy transition of the system in its contemporary form, with the currently available renewable energy technology, seems to be highly uncertain.

Governing Clean Energy Transitions in China and India

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karoliina Isoaho ◽  
Alexandra Goritz ◽  
Nicolai Schulz
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Power Systems ◽  
Energy Transition ◽  
Clean Energy ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Electric Power Systems ◽  
Energy Technology ◽  
China And India ◽  
Technology Policies

China and India will have to radically transform their electric power systems in order to decouple economic growth from unsustainable resource consumption. The development and deployment of renewable energies offers a solution to this challenge. A clean energy transition, however, requires radical changes in the energy system that can only occur if a governing coalition is both willing and able to implement successful RET (renewable energy technology) policies. The authors analyse how this willingness and ability is shaped by the coalition’s power and cohesiveness, societal pressures, and the institutional configuration across levels of governance. In doing so, central drivers are identified and barriers to a clean energy transition in China and India.

scholarly journals Relationship between Labor and Economic Growth in Vietnam: Practice and Forecast

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 289-293
Author(s):  
Phuong Huu Tung
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Labor Force ◽  
Labor Productivity ◽  
Economic Growth Rate ◽  
Neoclassical Growth Model ◽  
And Training ◽  
Neoclassical Growth

This paper analyzes the effects of the fluctuation in labor force and labor productivity on Vietnam's economic growth. Using the neoclassical growth model with data from the General Statistics Office, the study shows that when the number of laborers increases by 1%, the economic growth rate will raise by 2.78%. Combined with predicted figures on changes in Vietnam's labor force in the period of 2009-2049, the results of the study reveal in order to maintain the current economic growth rate, labor productivity needs to increase to 106.2% in the period of 2029-2039 and 111.6% in the period of 2039-2049. Vietnam is losing the advantage of labor force so its long-term economic growth will depend mainly on labor productivity. Improving the quality of labor is the driving force for economic growth. This depends on the combination of specific national policies and strategies, in which education and training policies are highlighted.

scholarly journals A Review on Energy and Renewable Energy Policies in Iran

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (13) ◽  
pp. 7328
Author(s):  
Saeed Solaymani
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Energy Security ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Agricultural Products ◽  
Energy Resources ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Renewable Energy Consumption

Iran, endowed with abundant renewable and non-renewable energy resources, particularly non-renewable resources, faces challenges such as air pollution, climate change and energy security. As a leading exporter and consumer of fossil fuels, it is also attempting to use renewable energy as part of its energy mix toward energy security and sustainability. Due to its favorable geographic characteristics, Iran has diverse and accessible renewable sources, which provide appropriate substitutes to reduce dependence on fossil fuels. Therefore, this study aims to examine trends in energy demand, policies and development of renewable energies and the causal relationship between renewable and non-renewable energies and economic growth using two methodologies. This study first reviews the current state of energy and energy policies and then employs Granger causality analysis to test the relationships between the variables considered. Results showed that renewable energy technologies currently do not have a significant and adequate role in the energy supply of Iran. To encourage the use of renewable energy, especially in electricity production, fuel diversification policies and development program goals were introduced in the late 2000s and early 2010s. Diversifying energy resources is a key pillar of Iran’s new plan. In addition to solar and hydropower, biomass from the municipal waste from large cities and other agricultural products, including fruits, can be used to generate energy and renewable sources. While present policies indicate the incorporation of sustainable energy sources, further efforts are needed to offset the use of fossil fuels. Moreover, the study predicts that with the production capacity of agricultural products in 2018, approximately 4.8 billion liters of bioethanol can be obtained from crop residues and about 526 thousand tons of biodiesel from oilseeds annually. Granger’s causality analysis also shows that there is a unidirectional causal relationship between economic growth to renewable and non-renewable energy use. Labor force and gross fixed capital formation cause renewable energy consumption, and nonrenewable energy consumption causes renewable energy consumption.

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