scholarly journals Climate Change Affects Forest Productivity in a Typical Climate Transition Region of China

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 2856 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yongxia Ding ◽  
Siqi Liang ◽  
Shouzhang Peng
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Transition Region ◽  
Forest Productivity ◽  
Forest Growth ◽  
Shaanxi Province ◽  
Pinus Tabulaeformis ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Humid Area ◽  
Dry Climates ◽  
Climate Transition

As global climate change has a large effect on the structure and function of vegetation, it is very important to understand how forests in climate transition regions respond to climate change. The present study investigates the net primary productivity (NPP) of two planted forests (Robinia pseudoacacia and Pinus tabulaeformis) and one natural forest (Quercus wutaishanica) from 1951–2100 using the LPJ-GUESS model in the Shaanxi province of China, which is a typical transition region from humid to dry climates. We found that: (1) Future annual precipitation and mean temperature exhibited nonsignificant and significant increasing trend in the region, respectively, indicating a drier climate in future; (2) although precipitation would increase in the dry area and decrease in the humid area, the NPP of each species in the dry area would be lower than that of the humid area, possibly because increasing temperature and CO2 concentration could restrain forest growth in dry areas and promote forest growth in humid areas; (3) of the three species, P. tabulaeformis forest exhibited the highest average NPP and R. pseudoacacia forest exhibited the highest NPP trend in both dry and humid areas, indicating these planted species may be adaptable to future climate change. Our results provide novel insights into the potential response of forest productivity to a changing climate in the transition region from humid to dry climates.

IMPACT OF FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE (2020–2059) ON THE HYDROLOGICAL REGIME IN THE HEIHE RIVER BASIN IN SHAANXI PROVINCE, CHINA

2019 ◽  
Vol 01 (01) ◽  
pp. 1950003 ◽  
Author(s):  
AIDI HUO ◽  
XIAOFAN WANG ◽  
YUXIANG CHENG ◽  
CHUNLI ZHENG ◽  
CHENG JIANG
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Hydrological Regime ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Heihe River Basin ◽  
Shaanxi Province ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Heihe River ◽  
The Heihe River Basin

Assessing the impacts of climate change on hydrological regime and associated social and economic activities (such as farming) is important for water resources management in any river basin. In this study, we used the popular Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to evaluate the impacts of future climate change on the availability of water resources in the Heihe River basin located within Shaanxi Province, China, in terms of runoff and streamflow. The results show that over the next 40 years (starting in 2020 till 2059), changes in the averaged annual runoff ratio are approximately [Formula: see text]11.0%, [Formula: see text]6.4%, 7.2%, and 20.4% for each of the next four consecutive decades as compared to the baseline period (2010–2019). The predicted annual runoff demonstrates an increase trend after a reduction and may result in increased drought and flood risk in the Heihe River basin. To minimize or mitigate these impacts, various adaptation methods have been proposed for the study area, such as stopping irrigation, flood control operation; reasonable development and utilization of regional underground water sources should be implemented in Zhouzhi county and Huyi region in the lower reaches of Heihe River basin.

scholarly journals Projections for the Köppen-Geiger climate classification under future climate change for the Iberian Peninsula

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cristina Andrade ◽  
Joana Contente
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Classification ◽  
Dry Climates ◽  
Projected Changes

<p>Projections of the Köppen-Geiger climate classification under future climate change for the Iberian Peninsula (IP) are investigated by using a seven-ensemble mean of regional climate models (RCMs) attained from EURO-CORDEX. Maps with predicted future scenarios for temperature, precipitation and Köppen-Geiger classification are analyzed under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in Iberia. Widespread statistically significant shifts in temperature, precipitation and climate regimes are projected between 2041 and 2070, with higher expression under RCP8.5. An overall increase of temperatures and a decrease of precipitation in the south-southeast is predicted. Of the two climate types dry (B) and temperate (C), the dominant one was C in 86% of the Iberian territory for 1961-1990, predicted to decrease by 8.0% towards 2041-2070 under RCP4.5 (9.1% under RCP8.5). The hot-summer Mediterranean climate (CSa) will progressively replaces CSb (warm-summer) type towards north in the northwestern half of Iberia until 2070. This shift, depicted by the SSIM index, is noticeable in Portugal with a projected establishment of the CSa climate by 2041-2070. A predicted retreat of humid subtropical (Cfa) and temperate oceanic (Cfb) areas in the northeast towards Pyrenees region is noteworthy, alongside an increase of desert (BW) and semi-desert (BS) climates (7.8% and 9%) that progressively sets in the southeast (between Granada and Valencia). Climate types BSh and BWh (hot semi-desert and hot-desert, respectively), non-existent in 1961-1990 period, are projected to represent 2.8% of territory in 2041-2070 under RCP4.5 (5% under RCP8.5). The statistically significant projected changes hint at the disappearance of some vegetation species in certain regions of Iberia, with an expected increase of steppe, bush, grassland and wasteland vegetation cover, typical of dry climates in the southeast.</p><p><strong>Funding:</strong> This research was funded by National Funds by FCT - Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology, under the project <strong>UIDB/04033/2020.</strong></p>

scholarly journals Increased Drought Sensitivity Results in a Declining Tree Growth of Pinus latteri in Northeastern Thailand

Forests ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 361
Author(s):  
Sakkarin Rakthai ◽  
Pei-Li Fu ◽  
Ze-Xin Fan ◽  
Narayan Prasad Gaire ◽  
Nathsuda Pumijumnong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Tree Growth ◽  
Ring Width ◽  
Forest Growth ◽  
Pine Forests ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Transition Season ◽  
Moisture Availability ◽  
Lowland Area ◽  
Northeastern Thailand

Climate change may lead to alterations in tree growth and carbon cycling. Interpreting the response of forest growth to climate change requires an understanding of the temporal and spatial patterns of seasonal climatic influences on the growth of tree species. However, the effects of climate change on pine forest dynamics in tropical region of Thailand remain poorly understood. This study develops three new tree ring-width chronologies of Pinus latteri (Tenasserim pine) in northern and northeastern Thailand and analyzes their climate-growth relationships and temporal stability. Ring-width chronologies of P. latteri at three sites showed significantly positive correlations with precipitation, relative humidity and self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) during the dry season (previous November to current April) and early rainy season (May–June). Conversely, significantly negative correlations were found between ring-width site chronologies and air temperatures (mean, maximum and minimum) from April to August. Therefore, our results revealed that radial growth of Tenasserim pines from northern and northeastern Thailand was mainly limited by moisture availability during the dry-to-wet transition season from April to June. Moving correlations revealed that Tenasserim pines in the lowland area of northeastern Thailand became more sensitive to moisture availability in recent 30 years (1985–2017) as compared with early period (1951–1984). Accompanying the shifted growth sensitivity to climate change, growth synchrony among trees was increasing and tree growth rates of Tenasserim pines have been declining during recent decades at two more moisture-limited sites in northeastern Thailand. Recent rapid warming and increasing drought during the transition season (April–June) together intensify climatic constrains on tree growth of Tenasserim pines in the lowland area of northeastern Thailand. Considering continued regional climate change, pine forests in tropical lowland areas may encounter intensified drought stresses, and thus, become more vulnerable to future climate change. Our results serve as an early indicator of potential effects of climate change on tropical pine species and raise concerns about sustainable managements of pine forests under a changing climate.

scholarly journals Carbon Cycles of Forest Ecosystems in a Typical Climate Transition Zone under Future Climate Change: A Case Study of Shaanxi Province, China

Forests ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 1150
Author(s):  
Siqi Liang ◽  
Shouzhang Peng ◽  
Yunming Chen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Source ◽  
Soil Carbon ◽  
Arid Region ◽  
Forest Ecosystems ◽  
Co2 Concentration ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Humid Region ◽  
Climate Transition

As global climate change has a large effect on the carbon cycle of forests, it is very important to understand how forests in climate transition regions respond to climate change. Specifically, the LPJ-GUESS (Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator) model was used to simulate net ecosystem productivity (NEP) and soil heterotrophic respiration (Rh) dynamics of two forest ecosystems of different origins between 1951 and 2100, to quantitatively analyze the carbon source and sink functions and potential changes in soil carbon dynamics in arid and humid regions under future climate change, simulate the dynamics of forest net primary productivity (NPP) under different climatic factors, and analyze the sensitivity of forests in arid and humid regions to temperature, precipitation, and carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration. We found that: (1) in both the historical and future periods, the average NEP of both studied forests in the humid region was larger than that in the arid region, the carbon sink function of the humid region being predicted to become stronger and the arid zone possibly becoming a carbon source; (2) between 1951 and 2100, the forest soil Rh in the arid region was lower than that in the humid region and under future climate change, forest in the humid region may have higher soil carbon loss; (3) increasing temperature had a negative effect and CO2 concentration had a positive effect on the forests in the study area, and forests in arid areas are more sensitive to precipitation change. We believe our research could be applied to help policy makers in planning sustainable forest management under future climate change.

scholarly journals Drop in Rain Forest Productivity Could Speed Future Climate Change

Eos ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 103 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rachel Fritts
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Tropical Forests ◽  
Rain Forest ◽  
Forest Productivity ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change

As temperatures rise, tropical forests will become more stressed and photosynthesize less.

Weather effects on maize yields in northern China

2013 ◽  
Vol 152 (4) ◽  
pp. 523-533 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. J. SUN ◽  
G. C. VAN KOOTEN
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Northern China ◽  
Shaanxi Province ◽  
Quadratic Model ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Growing Degree Days ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Technological Changes ◽  
Degree Days ◽  
Maize Yields

SUMMARYIn the present study, the effect of weather on maize yields in northern China was examined using data from 10 districts in Inner Mongolia and two in Shaanxi province. A regression model with a flexible functional form was specified on the basis of agronomic considerations. Explanatory variables included in the model were seasonal growing degree days, precipitation, technological change (e.g. adoption of new crop varieties, improved equipment, better management, etc.) and dummy variables to account for regional fixed effects. Results indicated that a fractional polynomial model in growing degree days could explain variability in maize yields better than a linear or quadratic model. Growing degree days, precipitation in July, August and September, and technological changes were important determinants of maize yields. The results could be used to predict potential maize yields under future climate change scenarios, to construct financial weather products and for policy makers to incentivize technological changes and construction of infrastructure (e.g. irrigation works) that facilitate adaptation to climate change in the agricultural sector.

scholarly journals Variations of Climate-Growth Response of Major Conifers at Upper Distributional Limits in Shika Snow Mountain, Northwestern Yunnan Plateau, China

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yun Zhang ◽  
Dingcai Yin ◽  
Mei Sun ◽  
Hang Wang ◽  
Kun Tian ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Radial Growth ◽  
Growth Response ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Forest Growth ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Variables ◽  
The Common ◽  
Distributional Limits

Improved understanding of climate-growth relationships of multi-species is fundamental to understand and predict response of forest growth to future climate change. Forests are mainly composed of conifers in Northwestern Yunnan Plateau, but variations of growth response to climates among the species are not well understood. To detect growth response of multiple species to climate change, we developed residual chronologies of four major conifers, i.e. Abies georgei, Picea likiangensis, Pinus densata and Larix potaninii at upper distributional limits in Shika Snow Mountain. By using dendroclimatology method, we analyzed correlations between the residual chronologies and climate variables. The results showed that conifer radial growth was influenced by both temperature and precipitation in Shika Snow Mountain. Previous November temperature, previous July mean maximum temperature (Tmax) and current June precipitation were the common climatic factors, which had consistent influences on radial growth of four species. Temperature in previous post growing season (September–October) and current growing season (June-August), and precipitation in previous August were the common climatic factors, which had divergent impacts on four species radial growth. Current May Tmax and early growing season (April-May) precipitation showed positive and negative influences on growth of P. likiangensis, respectively. Temperature in current post growing season positively affected growth of A. georgei. According to the prediction of climate models and our understanding in growth response of four species to climate variables, we may understand growth response to climate change at species level. It is difficult to predict future forest growth in the study area, since future climate change might cause both increases or decreases for four species and indirect effects of climate change on forest should be considered.

scholarly journals Prediction of Cossus Linnaeus suitable growing area in China under Future Climate change based on optimized MaxEnt Model and Geographic detector

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
hua zhang ◽  
ming li ◽  
jinyue song ◽  
wuhong han
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Geographical Distribution ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Shaanxi Province ◽  
Shanxi Province ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Actual Distribution ◽  
Maxent Model ◽  
Mean Temperature

CossusLinnaeus is a kind of insect that causes great harm to forest trees in China, which has a great impact on the country’s agriculture and forestry, and seriously affects the stability of the ecosystem, so it is very important to predict its distribution and contain it. Most researchers use the MaxEnt model with default parameters to build models to predict the potential geographical distribution of species. Recent studies have found that in the case of default parameters, the prediction results of MaxEnt model are not only inaccurate, but also sometimes difficult to explain. In this paper, ENMeval packets are used to adjust the optimal feature combination parameters of MaxEnt model, and then the MaxEnt model with optimal parameters is used to predict the potential geographical distribution of CossusLinnaeus under present and future climatic conditions. The simulation results show that the simulation effect of the MaxEnt model is good (the area under the ROC curve (AUC = 0.914), Cossus Linnaeus is mainly distributed in Liaoning Province, Hebei Province, Shandong Province, Henan Province, Shaanxi Province, Shanxi Province, Ningxia and Gansu Province, etc., which is consistent with the actual distribution results. Under future climatic conditions, the area of Cossus Linnaeus high suitable growth area will rise up 26.7% to 87.4% compared with the current one. Climate change affects the potential distribution of Cossus Linnaeus, and the top four environmental variables with contribution rate are normalized vegetation index (NDVI,40.3%), annual mean temperature (Bio1,24.1%), coldest monthly minimum temperature (Bio6,12.4%) and diurnal range of mean temperature (Bio2,9%). Under the condition of future climate change, the center of gravity of Cossus Linnaeus will move to high latitudes. This study will provide theoretical support for the prevention and control of Cossus Linnaeus and tree protection in China.

scholarly journals Gains or Losses in Forest Productivity under Climate Change? The Uncertainty of CO2 Fertilization and Climate Effects

Climate ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (12) ◽  
pp. 141
Author(s):  
Dominik Sperlich ◽  
Daniel Nadal-Sala ◽  
Carlos Gracia ◽  
Jürgen Kreuzwieser ◽  
Marc Hanewinkel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Tree Mortality ◽  
Abies Alba ◽  
Forest Productivity ◽  
Forest Growth ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Co2 Fertilization ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Productivity Losses ◽  
Forest Growth Model

Global warming poses great challenges for forest managers regarding adaptation strategies and species choices. More frequent drought events and heat spells are expected to reduce growth and increase mortality. Extended growing seasons, warming and elevated CO2 (eCO2) can also positively affect forest productivity. We studied the growth, productivity and mortality of beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) and fir (Abies alba Mill.) in the Black Forest (Germany) under three climate change scenarios (representative concentration pathways (RCP): RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) using the detailed biogeochemical forest growth model GOTILWA+. Averaged over the entire simulation period, both species showed productivity losses in RCP2.6 (16–20%) and in RCP4.5 (6%), but productivity gains in RCP8.5 (11–17%). However, all three scenarios had a tipping point (between 2035–2060) when initial gains in net primary productivity (NPP) (6–29%) eventually turned into losses (1–26%). With eCO2 switched off, the losses in NPP were 26–51% in RCP2.6, 36–45% in RCP4.5 and 33–71% in RCP8.5. Improved water-use efficiency dampened drought effects on NPP between 4 and 5%. Tree mortality increased, but without notably affecting forest productivity. Concluding, cultivation of beech and fir may still be possible in the study region, although severe productivity losses can be expected in the coming decades, which will strongly depend on the dampening CO2 fertilization effect.

scholarly journals Radial Growth Response of Picea crassifolia to Climatic Conditions in a Dryland Forest Ecosystem in Northwest China

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (10) ◽  
pp. 1382
Author(s):  
Hanxue Liang ◽  
Shaowei Jiang ◽  
Ali Muhammad ◽  
Jian Kang ◽  
Huoxing Zhu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Tree Ring ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Radial Growth ◽  
Northwest China ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Pinus Tabulaeformis ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Picea Crassifolia ◽  
Maximum Air Temperature

As an important barrier against desert invasion in Northwest China, Helan Mountains (HL), Luoshan Mountains (LS) and their natural forests have an extremely important ecological status. It is of great significance to study the relationship between forest growth and climate in this region under the background of global change. At present, relevant research mostly focuses on the Chinese pine (Pinus tabulaeformis Carr.), and little is known about how Qinghai spruce (Picea crassifolia Kom.) responds to climate change. To investigate the potential relationships between radial growth of P. crassifolia and climatic conditions in Ningxia, China, we collected tree-ring samples from P. crassifolia growing in the HL and LS and then established the standard tree-ring width chronologies for the two sites. Correlation analysis together with multivariate linear regression and relative contribution analyses were used, and results showed that radial growth in the HL was determined by the precipitation in the previous September, by the standardized evapotranspiration index (SPEI) in the current March and June, and by the maximum air temperature in the current September. The maximum air temperature in the current September contributed the most (0.348) to the radial growth in the HL. In the LS, radial growth was determined by the precipitation in the previous September and in the current March and by the minimum air temperature in the current July. The factor that made the most contribution was the precipitation in the current March (0.489). Our results suggested that in the wetting and warming future, growth of P. crassifolia in the HL will increase while that in the LS needs further investigation. Our results also provide a basis for predicting how P. crassifolia in northwest China will grow under the background of future climate change and provide a reference for formulating relevant management measures to achieve ecological protection and sustainable development policies.

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