scholarly journals Warming and Dimming: Interactive Impacts on Potential Summer Maize Yield in North China Plain

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 2588 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qi Hu ◽  
Xueqing Ma ◽  
Huayun He ◽  
Feifei Pan ◽  
Qijin He ◽  
...  

Global warming and dimming/brightening have significant implications for crop systems and exhibit regional variations. It is important to clarify the changes in regional thermal and solar radiation resources and estimate the impacts on potential crop production spatially and temporally. Based on daily observation data during 1961–2015 in the North China Plain (NCP), the impacts of climate change associated with climate warming and global dimming/brightening on potential light–temperature productivity (PTP) of summer maize were assessed in this study. Results show that the NCP experienced a continuous warming and dimming trend in maize growing season during the past 55 years, and both ATT10 and solar radiation had an abrupt change in the mid-1990s. The period of 2000–2015 was warmer and dimmer than any other previous decade. Assuming the maize growing season remains unchanged, climate warming would increase PTP of summer maize by 4.6% over the period of 1961–2015, which mainly occurred in the start grain filling–maturity stage. On the other hand, as negative contribution value of solar radiation to the PTP was found in each stage, dimming would offset the increase of PTP due to warming climate, and lead to a 15.6% reduction in PTP in the past 55 years. This study reveals that the changes in thermal and solar radiation have reduced the PTP of summer maize in the NCP. However, the actual maize yield could benefit more from climate warming because solar radiation is not a limiting factor for the current low production level.

2019 ◽  
Vol 58 (12) ◽  
pp. 2605-2615
Author(s):  
Qi Hu ◽  
Xueqing Ma ◽  
Xuebiao Pan ◽  
Huang Binxiang

AbstractClimate warming in the North China Plain (NCP) is expected to greatly affect corn production. On the basis of a comprehensive consideration of the double-cropping system, we investigated the impacts of climate warming in the past 55 years on the planting boundaries and areas of varieties of summer corn with different maturity levels. In addition, we tried to explore the probable reasons for the changes in planting boundaries. Climate warming caused a northward shift in the planting boundaries of summer corn, resulting in the expansion of the total planting area. However, the trend for the planting area of each belt of corn maturity was not always consistent. Because of the advanced planting date and delayed physiological maturation date, the growing season of corn in the NCP has been prolonged in the past 55 years. Climate warming also increased the active accumulated temperature with a threshold of 10° (AAT10) during the corn growing season by 73.2°C decade−1, which was mainly caused by the increase in the number of days with a daily temperature over 10°C. In summary, the planting boundaries of varieties of summer corn with different maturity levels have greatly changed due to climate change, and corn production in the NCP could benefit from climate warming through the greater planting area and longer growing season.


ScienceAsia ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 41 (4) ◽  
pp. 229 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hongbin Tao ◽  
Laikun Xia ◽  
Lina Xu ◽  
Lihua Lu ◽  
Pengyu Jin ◽  
...  

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (18) ◽  
pp. 3582 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sha Zhang ◽  
Yun Bai ◽  
Jiahua Zhang

Estimating yield potential (Yp) and quantifying the contribution of suboptimum field managements to the yield gap (Yg) of crops are important for improving crop yield effectively. However, achieving this goal on a regional scale remains difficult because of challenges in collecting field management information. In this study, we retrieved crop management information (i.e., emerging stage information and a surrogate of sowing date (SDT)) from a remote sensing (RS) vegetation index time series. Then, we developed a new approach to quantify maize Yp, total Yg, and the suboptimum SDT-induced Yg (Yg0) using a process-based RS-driven crop yield model for maize (PRYM–Maize), which was developed in our previous study. PRYM–Maize and the newly developed method were used over the North China Plain (NCP) to estimate Ya, Yp, Yg, and Yg0 of summer maize. Results showed that PRYM–Maize outputs reasonable estimates for maize yield over the NCP, with correlations and root mean standard deviation of 0.49 ± 0.24 and 0.88 ± 0.14 t hm−2, respectively, for modeled annual maize yields versus the reference value for each year over the period 2010 to 2015 on a city level. Yp estimated using our new method can reasonably capture the spatial variations in site-level estimates from crop growth models in previous literature. The mean annual regional Yp of 2010–2015 was estimated to be 11.99 t hm−2, and a Yg value of 5.4 t hm−2 was found between Yp and Ya on a regional scale. An estimated 29–42% of regional Yg in each year (2010–2015) was induced by suboptimum SDT. Results also show that not all Yg0 was persistent over time. Future studies using high spatial-resolution RS images to disaggregate Yg0 into persistent and non-persistent components on a small scale are required to increase maize yield over the NCP.


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