scholarly journals Population Age Structure, Complex Socio-Demographic Systems and Resilience Potential: A Spatio-Temporal, Evenness-Based Approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 2050 ◽  
Author(s):  
Massimo Cecchini ◽  
Sirio Cividino ◽  
Rosario Turco ◽  
Luca Salvati
Keyword(s):  
Population Structure ◽  
Age Structure ◽  
Census Data ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
System Thinking ◽  
Italian Population ◽  
Comprehensive Overview ◽  
Population Age Structure ◽  
Evenness Index ◽  
Over Time

The present study illustrates an original approach grounded on entropy theory and complex system thinking with the aim to investigate changes over time and space in population structure by age in Italy, in light of socioeconomic resilience and post-crisis recovery potential. Assuming that population structure may reflect different levels of resilience to exogenous shocks, a Pielou J evenness index was calculated on census data made available every 10 years (1861–2011) with the aim to identify compositional homogeneity (or heterogeneity) in the age structure of the Italian population. Trends over time in the Pielou J evenness index were identified using descriptive statistics, comparison with ancillary demographic indicators and multivariate exploratory techniques including principal component analysis. The empirical results allowed the identification of multiple dimensions of demographic transition in Italy, distinguishing two phases, the former encompassing a relatively long time period between 1861 and 1936, and the latter covering a shorter period between 1936 and 2011. A spatially-explicit analysis of Pielou J evenness indices applied to the population age structure of each Italian municipality at the latest survey (2017) finally provided a comprehensive overview of the demographic characteristics likely influencing the resilience potential of local districts. The empirical evidence outlined the consolidation of a coastal–inland divide as a result of the complex linkage between demographic dynamics and local background contexts.

scholarly journals Climate causes shifts in grey seal phenology by modifying age structure

2021 ◽  
Vol 288 (1964) ◽  
Author(s):  
James C. Bull ◽  
Owen R. Jones ◽  
Luca Börger ◽  
Novella Franconi ◽  
Roma Banga ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Age Structure ◽  
Census Data ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Ecosystem Change ◽  
Population Census ◽  
Sea Temperature ◽  
Population Age Structure ◽  
Phenological Shifts

There are numerous examples of phenological shifts that are recognized both as indicators of climate change and drivers of ecosystem change. A pressing challenge is to understand the causal mechanisms by which climate affects phenology. We combined annual population census data and individual longitudinal data (1992–2018) on grey seals, Halicheorus grypus , to quantify the relationship between pupping season phenology and sea surface temperature. A temperature increase of 2°C was associated with a pupping season advance of approximately seven days at the population level. However, we found that maternal age, rather than sea temperature, accounted for changes in pupping date by individuals. Warmer years were associated with an older average age of mothers, allowing us to explain phenological observations in terms of a changing population age structure. Finally, we developed a matrix population model to test whether our observations were consistent with changes to the stable age distribution. This could not fully account for observed phenological shift, strongly suggesting transient modification of population age structure, for example owing to immigration. We demonstrate a novel mechanism for phenological shifts under climate change in long-lived, age- or stage-structured species with broad implications for dynamics and resilience, as well as population management.

Population Structure of Snow Gum (Eucalyptus pauciflora Sieb ex Spreng) Subalpine Woodland in Kosciusko National-Park

1988 ◽  
Vol 36 (5) ◽  
pp. 483 ◽  
Author(s):  
S Barker
Keyword(s):  
Population Structure ◽  
Monitoring System ◽  
Age Structure ◽  
National Park ◽  
Fire Hazard ◽  
Population Age Structure ◽  
Long Term Monitoring ◽  
Term Monitoring ◽  
Management Issues

Snow gum was sampled in 15 sites at altitudes from 1540 to 1820m. The population age structure reflects the incidence of fire and grazing, which have affected the woodland since 1900. Evidence for recruitment on three occasions prior to 1900 is given, and it is suggested that two of these may have arisen as a result of fire. Whereas pre-disturbance stem densities calculated from remnants of previous populations suggest densities of between 24 and 240 stems per hectare according to site, current stem densities arising from flushes of regeneration this century are calculated as between 700 and 5550 stems per hectare. In 1973, levels of failing stems within juvenile, mature and old subpopulations, while variable, suggest that it may be 100-200 or more years before stem densities approach the calculated pre-disturbance densities. The work raises park management issues: what structural forms of woodland are appropriate in the Park; what effect allowing natural senescence to thin existing woodland will have on fire hazard and other components of the ecosystem; the need for a long-term monitoring system.

A Test of Paleodemographic Models

1978 ◽  
Vol 43 (4) ◽  
pp. 715-729 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roberta L. Hall
Keyword(s):  
Population Structure ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Life Table ◽  
Structure Data ◽  
Age Structure ◽  
Census Data ◽  
Research Tool ◽  
Aged Sample ◽  
Demographic Processes ◽  
Archaeological Reconstruction

AbstractPaleodemography is a useful adjunct to archaeological reconstruction, but as a research tool it is relatively new and requires further study. This paper reports on a project in which the life-table method of modeling demographic processes, based on a sexed and aged sample from the community ossuary, was tested against census records of the population structure. Data were taken from cemetery headstones in a township in central Indiana, spanning the period from its first settlement by Euroamerican farmers in 1830 through 1972. Life-expectancy estimates produced from the life tables were essentially identical to those produced from federal census data. Paleodemographic models of population structure were statistically different from census tabulations but were similar in form, representing a "smoothed" estimate of age structure.

Inequalities and Impact of Socioeconomic-Cultural Factors in Suicide Rates Across Italy

Crisis ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 32 (4) ◽  
pp. 178-185 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maurizio Pompili ◽  
Marco Innamorati ◽  
Monica Vichi ◽  
Maria Masocco ◽  
Nicola Vanacore ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Suicide Rate ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Premature Death ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Italian Population ◽  
Comprehensive Overview ◽  
Suicide Rates ◽  
Younger Age ◽  
Age And Sex

Background: Suicide is a major cause of premature death in Italy and occurs at different rates in the various regions. Aims: The aim of the present study was to provide a comprehensive overview of suicide in the Italian population aged 15 years and older for the years 1980–2006. Methods: Mortality data were extracted from the Italian Mortality Database. Results: Mortality rates for suicide in Italy reached a peak in 1985 and declined thereafter. The different patterns observed by age and sex indicated that the decrease in the suicide rate in Italy was initially the result of declining rates in those aged 45+ while, from 1997 on, the decrease was attributable principally to a reduction in suicide rates among the younger age groups. It was found that socioeconomic factors underlined major differences in the suicide rate across regions. Conclusions: The present study confirmed that suicide is a multifaceted phenomenon that may be determined by an array of factors. Suicide prevention should, therefore, be targeted to identifiable high-risk sociocultural groups in each country.

Investigating the President

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Douglas L. Kriner ◽  
Eric Schickler
Keyword(s):  
Public Policy ◽  
Political Theater ◽  
Policy Outcomes ◽  
Presidential Power ◽  
Political Pressure ◽  
Comprehensive Overview ◽  
Partisan Polarization ◽  
Approval Rating ◽  
Congressional Investigations ◽  
Over Time

Although congressional investigations have provided some of the most dramatic moments in American political history, they have often been dismissed as mere political theater. But these investigations are far more than grandstanding. This book shows that congressional investigations are a powerful tool for members of Congress to counter presidential aggrandizement. By shining a light on alleged executive wrongdoing, investigations can exert significant pressure on the president and materially affect policy outcomes. This book constructs the most comprehensive overview of congressional investigative oversight to date, analyzing nearly 13,000 days of hearings, spanning more than a century, from 1898 through 2014. The book examines the forces driving investigative power over time and across chambers, and identifies how hearings might influence the president’s strategic calculations through the erosion of the president’s public approval rating, and uncover the pathways through which investigations have shaped public policy. Put simply, by bringing significant political pressure to bear on the president, investigations often afford Congress a blunt, but effective check on presidential power—without the need to worry about veto threats or other hurdles such as Senate filibusters. In an era of intense partisan polarization and institutional dysfunction, the book delves into the dynamics of congressional investigations and how Congress leverages this tool to counterbalance presidential power.

scholarly journals Predictors of historical change in drug treatment coverage among people who inject drugs in 90 large metropolitan areas in the USA, 1993–2007

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Barbara Tempalski ◽  
Leslie D. Williams ◽  
Brooke S. West ◽  
Hannah L. F. Cooper ◽  
Stephanie Beane ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Drug Treatment ◽  
Resource Availability ◽  
People Who Inject Drugs ◽  
Census Data ◽  
Poverty Rate ◽  
Community Action ◽  
Historical Change ◽  
Treatment Coverage ◽  
Over Time

Abstract Background Adequate access to effective treatment and medication assisted therapies for opioid dependence has led to improved antiretroviral therapy adherence and decreases in morbidity among people who inject drugs (PWID), and can also address a broad range of social and public health problems. However, even with the success of syringe service programs and opioid substitution programs in European countries (and others) the US remains historically low in terms of coverage and access with regard to these programs. This manuscript investigates predictors of historical change in drug treatment coverage for PWID in 90 US metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) during 1993–2007, a period in which, overall coverage did not change. Methods Drug treatment coverage was measured as the number of PWID in drug treatment, as calculated by treatment entry and census data, divided by numbers of PWID in each MSA. Variables suggested by the Theory of Community Action (i.e., need, resource availability, institutional opposition, organized support, and service symbiosis) were analyzed using mixed-effects multivariate models within dependent variables lagged in time to study predictors of later change in coverage. Results Mean coverage was low in 1993 (6.7%; SD 3.7), and did not increase by 2007 (6.4%; SD 4.5). Multivariate results indicate that increases in baseline unemployment rate (β = 0.312; pseudo-p < 0.0002) predict significantly higher treatment coverage; baseline poverty rate (β = − 0.486; pseudo-p < 0.0001), and baseline size of public health and social work workforce (β = 0.425; pseudo-p < 0.0001) were predictors of later mean coverage levels, and baseline HIV prevalence among PWID predicted variation in treatment coverage trajectories over time (baseline HIV * Time: β = 0.039; pseudo-p < 0.001). Finally, increases in black/white poverty disparity from baseline predicted significantly higher treatment coverage in MSAs (β = 1.269; pseudo-p < 0.0001). Conclusions While harm reduction programs have historically been contested and difficult to implement in many US communities, and despite efforts to increase treatment coverage for PWID, coverage has not increased. Contrary to our hypothesis, epidemiologic need, seems not to be associated with change in treatment coverage over time. Resource availability and institutional opposition are important predictors of change over time in coverage. These findings suggest that new ways have to be found to increase drug treatment coverage in spite of economic changes and belt-tightening policy changes that will make this difficult.

scholarly journals A246 THE GLOBAL INCIDENCE OF ACUTE PANCREATITIS IS INCREASING OVER TIME: A SYSTEMATIC REVIEW AND META-ANALYSIS

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. 304-306
Author(s):  
J Iannuzzi ◽  
J H Leong ◽  
J Quan ◽  
J A King ◽  
J W Windsor ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Acute Pancreatitis ◽  
Data Extraction ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Western World ◽  
Common Disease ◽  
Biliary Disease ◽  
Comprehensive Overview ◽  
Annual Percent Change ◽  
Over Time

Abstract Background Acute pancreatitis is a common disease with significant associated morbidity and mortality. Historically, acute pancreatitis has been considered a disease with multiple etiologies and risk factors but is driven by alcohol and biliary disease. Multiple studies have shown that the incidence of acute pancreatitis is increasing globally among both adults and children. Aims The purpose of this study was to assess temporal trends in incidence of acute pancreatitis globally. Methods We performed a systematic literature search to identify population-based studies reporting the annual incidence of acute pancreatitis. Abstracts were independently assessed in duplicate to identify applicable papers for full-text review and data extraction. Joinpoint temporal trend analyses were performed to calculate the average annual percent change (AAPC) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). The AAPCs were pooled in a meta-analysis to capture the overall and regional trends in acute pancreatitis incidence over time. Temporal data were summarized in a static map and an interactive, web-based map to illustrate global differences. Results Forty-five studies reported the temporal incidence of acute pancreatitis (static map provided, online interactive map: https://kaplan-acute-pancreatitis-ucalgary.hub.arcgis.com/). The incidence of acute pancreatitis has increased from 1961 to 2016 (AAPC = 2.89%; 95% CI: 2.26, 3.52; n=41). Increasing incidence was observed in North America (AAPC = 2.71%; 95% CI: 1.93, 3.50; n=10) and Europe (AAPC = 2.79%; 95% CI: 1.95, 3.63; n=24). The incidence of acute pancreatitis was stable in Asia (AAPC = −0.28%; 95% CI: −5.03, 4.47; n=2). Conclusions This meta-analysis provides a comprehensive overview of the global incidence of acute pancreatitis over the last five decades and demonstrates a steadily rising incidence over time in most countries of the Western world. More studies are needed to better define the changing incidence of acute pancreatitis in Asia, Africa and Latin America. Funding Agencies None

scholarly journals Different Blood Metabolomics Profiles in Infants Consuming a Meat- or Dairy-Based Complementary Diet

Nutrients ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 388
Author(s):  
Minghua Tang ◽  
Nicholas E. Weaver ◽  
Lillian M. Berman ◽  
Laura D. Brown ◽  
Audrey E. Hendricks ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Amino Acids ◽  
Dietary Intervention ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Essential Amino Acids ◽  
Infant Growth ◽  
Serum Samples ◽  
Z Scores ◽  
Protein Rich ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Complementary Diet

Background: Research is limited in evaluating the mechanisms responsible for infant growth in response to different protein-rich foods; Methods: Targeted and untargeted metabolomics analysis were conducted on serum samples collected from an infant controlled-feeding trial that participants consumed a meat- vs. dairy-based complementary diet from 5 to 12 months of age, and followed up at 24 months. Results: Isoleucine, valine, phenylalanine increased and threonine decreased over time among all participants; Although none of the individual essential amino acids had a significant impact on changes in growth Z scores from 5 to 12 months, principal component heavily weighted by BCAAs (leucine, isoleucine, valine) and phenylalanine had a positive association with changes in length-for-age Z score from 5 to 12 months. Concentrations of acylcarnitine-C4, acylcarnitine-C5 and acylcarnitine-C5:1 significantly increased over time with the dietary intervention, but none of the acylcarnitines were associated with infant growth Z scores. Quantitative trimethylamine N-oxide increased in the meat group from 5 to 12 months; Conclusions: Our findings suggest that increasing total protein intake by providing protein-rich complementary foods was associated with increased concentrations of certain essential amino acids and short-chain acyl-carnitines. The sources of protein-rich foods (e.g., meat vs. dairy) did not appear to differentially impact serum metabolites, and comprehensive mechanistic investigations are needed to identify other contributors or mediators of the diet-induced infant growth trajectories.

scholarly journals Polarized nature of the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan: associations with population age structure and behaviours

2021 ◽  
Vol 49 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Junko Okumura
Keyword(s):  
Age Structure ◽  
Public Transportation ◽  
Perceived Risk ◽  
Online Survey ◽  
Preventive Measures ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Population Age Structure ◽  
Major Factors ◽  
Drinking Places

Abstract Background Although the scale of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic was relatively small in Japan compared with the rest of the world, the polarisation of areas into high- and low-COVID-19-incidence areas was observed among the 47 prefectures. The aims of this study were not only identifying the factors associated with the polarised COVID-19 pandemic in Japan but also discussing effective preventive measures. Methods This was an ecological study using online survey data which was cross-sectionally conducted by the author. A total of 6000 respondents who resided in 10 low- and 10 high-COVID-19 incidence prefectures, with a wide gap in terms of COVID-19 incidence, in Japan were recruited. Data on COVID-19 cases and geodemographic information were obtained from official government sites. Statistical analyses were conducted to compare variables between the two areas and age groups. Results This study revealed that that age influenced people’s behaviours and perceptions, except one behaviour of ‘wearing facemasks’. The major factors significantly associated with the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases per 100,000 people were ‘commuting by private automobile’ (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 0.444; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.394–0.501), ‘commuting by public transportation’ (AOR, 6.813; 95% CI, 5.567–8.336), ‘washing hands’ (AOR, 1.233; 95% CI, 1.005–1.511), ‘opening windows regularly’ (AOR, 1.248; 95% CI, 1.104–1.412), ‘avoiding crowded places (AOR, 0.757; 95% CI, 0.641–0.893), ‘non-scheduled visits to drinking places’ (AOR, 1.212; 95% CI, 1.054–1.392) and ‘perceived risk of contracting COVID-19’ (AOR, 1.380; 95% CI, 1.180–1.612). These factors were strongly associated with age groups. Conclusions Effective preventive measures for COVID-19 transmission can be developed by understanding the characteristics of populated areas, such as public transportation infrastructure and younger people’s movements and behaviours in relation to the population age structure to contain the current epidemic and protect the most vulnerable elderly people.

scholarly journals Genetic diversity and population structure analysis of Lateolabrax maculatus from Chinese coastal waters using polymorphic microsatellite markers

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei Wang ◽  
Chunyan Ma ◽  
Longling Ouyang ◽  
Wei Chen ◽  
Ming Zhao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Genetic Diversity ◽  
Population Structure ◽  
Structure Analysis ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Genetic Constitution ◽  
Southern Group ◽  
Population Structure Analysis ◽  
Lateolabrax Maculatus ◽  
Geographic Populations ◽  
Geographic Separation

AbstractIn order to provide valuable guidelines for the conservation of germplasm of Lateolabrax maculatus, the genetic diversity and population structure analysis were evaluated for eight geographic populations along coastal regions of China, using 11 microsatellite DNA markers. The genetic parameters obtained showed that, eight populations can be clustered into two groups, the Northern group and the Southern group, concordant with their geographical positions. The UPGMA tree constructed according to the Nei’s genetic distance along with the structure analysis and discriminant analysis of principal component also supported this result. This might be explained by the geographic separation and the divergent environmental conditions among the populations. It's worth noting that, QD (Qingdao) population from northern area was assigned to the Southern group and showed a close genetic relationship and similar genetic constitution with the southern populations. We speculated that large scales of anthropogenic transportation of wild fries from QD populations to the southern aquaculture areas in history should be the primary cause. The populations from GY (Ganyu), RD (Rudong) and BH (Binhai) had higher genetic diversity and showed limited genetic exchange with other populations, indicating better conservation of the natural resources in these regions. All populations were indicated to have experienced bottleneck events in history.

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