scholarly journals Energy Efficiency as a Wicked Problem

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 1569 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrik Thollander ◽  
Jenny Palm ◽  
Johan Hedbrant
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Energy Efficiency ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Wicked Problems ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Wicked Problem ◽  
Barriers To Energy Efficiency ◽  
Critical Model ◽  
Energy Efficiency Potential

Together with increased shares of renewable energy supply, improved energy efficiency is the foremost means of mitigating climate change. However, the energy efficiency potential is far from being realized, which is commonly explained by the existence of various barriers to energy efficiency. Initially mentioned by Churchman, the term “wicked problems” became established in the 1970s, meaning a kind of problem that has a resistance to resolution because of incomplete, contradictory, or changing requirements. In the academic literature, wicked problems have later served as a critical model in the understanding of various challenges related to society, such as for example climate change mitigation. This aim of this paper is to analyze how the perspective of wicked problems can contribute to an enhanced understanding of improved energy efficiency. The paper draws examples from the manufacturing sector. Results indicate that standalone technology improvements as well as energy management and energy policy programs giving emphasis to standalone technology improvements may not represent a stronger form of a wicked problem as such. Rather, it seems to be the actual decision-making process involving values among the decision makers as well as the level of needed knowledge involved in decision-making that give rise to the “wickedness”. The analysis shows that wicked problems arise in socio-technical settings involving several components such as technology, systems, institutions, and people, which make post-normal science a needed approach.

Visual storytelling about future weather extremes in Norway

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jana Sillmann ◽  
Melanie Burford ◽  
Miriam Stackpole Dahl
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
High Impact ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Climate Information ◽  
Research Project ◽  
Visual Storytelling ◽  
Western Norway ◽  
Event Based

<p>Extreme floods with severe impacts have hit municipalities in Western Norway in recent decades and they will become more intense and frequent with global warming. We present a project that focused on providing an approach for visualizing climate change information for decision-makers challenged with planning resilient infrastructure and preparedness measures for future flood impacts. We have chosen visual storytelling through a short film as the most suitable and effective tool for building a communication strategy to reach out to local and regional decision-makers on the one hand and the research community on the other.</p><p>The objective was to present and communicate results from a research project in a film by focusing on low-probability high-impact events using a storyline approach. The scope of the research project was to provide Norwegian stakeholders with a realistic representation of how an observed high-impact event of the past will look like under projected future climate conditions (Schaller et al. 2020, Hegdahl et al. 2020). Recent high-impact flood events in Norway have emphasized the need for more proactive climate change adaptation. This requires local, actionable and reliable climate information to support the decision making as well as awareness and consideration of barriers to adaptation. Thus, a seamless chain from global climate system modelling over high-resolution hydrological modelling to impact assessments is needed. We have therefore taken a novel "Tales of future weather" approach (Hazeleger et al. 2015), which suggests that scenarios tailored to a specific region and stakeholder context in combination with numerical weather prediction models will offer a more realistic picture of what future weather might look like, hence facilitating adaptation planning and implementation.</p><p>The film we produced particularly focuses on the extreme flood event in October 2005 that affected people (including fatalities) in Bergen municipality, how the event can be seen in context of historic floods and its atmospheric drivers. It tells the story of people having experienced this event and how Bergen municipality was responding to that event.  One key objective of the film is to drive interest and attention to the event-based storyline approach (Sillmann et al. 2020) to facilitate uptake of climate information and to empower decision makers with new knowledge and tools to assist them in their decision making.</p><p> </p><p><strong>References</strong></p><p>Hazeleger, W., B. Van den Hurk, E. Min, G-J. Van Oldenborgh, A. Petersen, D. Stainforth, D., E. Vasileiadou, and L. Smith, 2015: Tales of future weather. Nature Climate Change, 5, 107-113, doi: 10.1038/nclimate2450.</p><p>Hegdahl, T.J., K. Engeland, M. Müller and J. Sillmann, 2020: Atmospheric River induced floods in western Norway – under present and future climate, J. Hydrometeorology, doi: 10.1175/JHM-D-19-0071.1.</p><p>Schaller, N., J. Sillmann, M. Mueller, R. Haarsma, W. Hazeleger, T. Jahr Hegdahl, T. Kelder, G. van den Oord, A. Weerts, and K. Whan, 2020: The role of spatial and temporal model resolution in a flood event storyline approach in Western Norway, Weather and Climate Extremes, 29, doi: 10.1016/j.wace.2020.100259.</p><p>Sillmann, J., T. G. Shepherd, B. van den Hurk, W. Hazeleger, O. Martius, J. Zscheischler, 2020: Event-based storylines to address climate risk, Earth’s Future, doi: 10.1029/2020EF001783.</p>

Why, Exactly, Is Climate Change a Wicked Problem?

2020 ◽  
Vol 85 (2) ◽  
pp. 226-242
Author(s):  
Ernst M. Conradie
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Social Engineering ◽  
Wicked Problems ◽  
Wicked Problem ◽  
Climate Engineering ◽  
Moral Dimensions

Abstract This contribution explores the assertion that climate change may be described as a “wicked problem.” It notes that the term was introduced in the context of the management sciences where a managerial ethos prevailed and where moral connotations were excluded. Subsequent references to climate change as a wicked problem maintained both these features. Yet, if climate change not only poses technological, economic, and political problems but also has moral and, indeed, spiritual challenges—as is widely maintained—then such moral connotations cannot be avoided. The description of a problem as wicked then becomes part of the problem. It is argued that the term is best understood as one used in jest, so that if we seek to define a problem’s wickedness in a conceptually precise way, we are missing the joke. The major moral dimensions of the challenges posed by climate changes should be taken seriously, but perhaps there is no need to take the term wicked problems all that seriously. What should not be laughed off is the managerial ethos that presumes that the challenges posed by climate changes can be addressed “exactly” through climate engineering or even social engineering.

Wicked Solutions to Wicked Problems? A Christian Ethical Reflection on Synthetic Biology as Nature Conservation

2020 ◽  
Vol 85 (2) ◽  
pp. 181-197
Author(s):  
Manitza Kotzé
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Nature Conservation ◽  
Synthetic Biology ◽  
Global Justice ◽  
Ethical Issues ◽  
Wicked Problems ◽  
Christian Ethics ◽  
Wicked Problem ◽  
Ethical Reflection

Abstract While a distinction should be made between wicked problems as first defined by Churchman (1967) and Rittel and Webber (1973) and problems that are merely challenging and difficult to solve, in this contribution, I argue that climate change and the resulting destruction of nature could be explained as a wicked problem. One of the proposed solutions to climate change, making use of synthetic biology for nature conservation, has the potential to be classified not only as a wicked solution but as a solution that spawns a number of other wicked problems. I will examine the ethical issues raised by synthetic biology as a wicked solution to this super wicked problem from the perspective of Christian ethics, drawing in particular on the resources available in Christian ecotheology and, specifically, notions of interdependence, relationality, responsible stewardship, and global justice.

scholarly journals The adequacy of institutional frameworks and practice for climate change adaptation decision making

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Judith Helen Lawrence
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Climate Change Adaptation ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Institutional Framework ◽  
Climate Change Uncertainty ◽  
Change Characteristics ◽  
Decision Making Framework ◽  
Adaptation Decision

<p>The ability of decision makers to respond to climate change impacts such as sea-level rise and increased flood frequency is challenged by uncertainty about scale, timing, dynamic changes that could lead to regime shifts, and by societal changes. Climate change adaptation decision making needs to be robust and flexible across a range of possible futures, to provide sufficient certainty for investment decisions in the present, without creating undue risks and liabilities for the near and long-term futures. A country’s governance and regulatory institutions set parameters for such decisions. The decision-making challenge is, therefore, a function of the uncertainty and dynamic characteristics of climate change, a country’s institutional framework, and the ways in which actual decision-making practice delivers on the intention of the framework.  My research asks if the current decision-making framework, at national and sub-national scales, and practices under it are adequate to enable decision makers to make climate change adaptation decisions that sufficiently address the constraints posed by climate change uncertainty and dynamic change. The focus is on New Zealand’s multi-scale governance and institutional framework with its high level of devolution to the local level, the level assumed as the most appropriate for climate change adaptation decisions. Empirical information was collected from a sample of agencies and actors, at multiple governance scales reflecting the range of geographical characteristics, governance types, organisational functions and actor disciplines. Data were collected using a mix of workshops, interviews and document analyses. The adequacy of the institutional framework and practice was examined using 12 criteria derived from the risk-based concepts of precaution, risk management, adaptive management and transformational change, with respect to; a) understanding and representing uncertainty and dynamic climate change; b) governance and regulations; and c) organisations and actors.  The research found that the current decision-making framework has many elements that could, in principle, address uncertainty and dynamic climate change. It enables long-term considerations and emphasises precaution and risk-based decision making. However, adaptive and transformational objectives are largely absent, coordination across multiple levels of government is constrained and timeframes are inconsistent across statutes. Practice shows that climate risk has been entrenched by misrepresentation of climate change characteristics. The resulting ambiguity is compounded at different governance scales, by gaps in the use of national and regional instruments and consequent differences in judicial decisions. Practitioners rely heavily upon static, time-bound treatments of risk, which reinforce unrealistic community expectations of ongoing protections, even as the climate continues to change, and makes it difficult to introduce transformational measures. Some efforts to reflect changing risk were observed but are, at best, transitional measures. Some experimentation was found in local government practice and boundary organisations were used as change-agents. Any potential improvements to both the institutional framework and to practices that could enable flexible and robust adaptation to climate change, would require supporting policies and adaptive governance to leverage them and to sustain decision making through time.  This thesis contributes to understanding how uncertainty and dynamic climate change characteristics matter for adaptation decision making by examining both a country-level institutional framework and practice under it. The adequacy analysis offers a new way of identifying institutional barriers, enablers and entry points for change in the context of decision making under conditions of uncertainty and dynamic climate change.</p>

scholarly journals A GP-Based Hierarchical Objectives Decision-Making Method for Building Energy Efficiency Optimization

Buildings ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 52
Author(s):  
Xiang Li ◽  
Sha Liu ◽  
Yichao Sun
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Energy Efficiency ◽  
Optimization Method ◽  
Building Energy ◽  
Energy Performance ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Building Energy Efficiency ◽  
Simulation Engine ◽  
Goal Programming Model ◽  
Building Designs

Building energy efficiency, which is critical in reducing environmental impact, has become one of the most important objectives of building designs. In order to precisely express the goals of building designs, and help decision makers estimate the ultimate performance of design schemes in advance when searching for the optimal building design, the Goal Programming Model (GPM) is introduced in this study to provide a solution for explicit design objective delivery and multi-stakeholder involved decision-making support. In this proposed method, EnergyPlusTM works as a simulation engine to search for the relationship between design parameter combinations and building energy consumption. Simultaneously, Genetic Algorithm (GA) is used to improve the efficiency of overall building energy performance optimization by processing multiple iterations. A case study with five possible design scenarios was dedicated in this study to implement the proposed optimization method, and the optimization results verified the capacity of the established GP-based optimization method to satisfy various design requirements for decision makers and/or stakeholders, especially in facing the hierarchical objectives with different priorities. In this case, the envelope-related variables, including the exterior wall and window, serve as optimization objectives. The optimization is carried out under the ideal air conditioning system, considering different energy usage patterns. Meanwhile, comparing with the vague and restricted expression of objectives in multi-objective optimization, the proposed GP-based optimization method provides explicit trade-off relationships among various objectives for designers, which improves the practical value of the optimized designs, so as to ensure the project success and facilitate the development of green buildings.

Behavioral Science and Climate Policy

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Howlett ◽  
Stuti Rawat
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Behavioral Science ◽  
Climate Change Policy ◽  
Policy Issue ◽  
Wicked Problem ◽  
Political Scientist ◽  
Systematic Analysis ◽  
Analysis And Design ◽  
Change Policy

Behavioral science consists of the systematic analysis of processes underlying human behavior through experimentation and observation, drawing on knowledge, research, and methods from a variety of fields such as economics, psychology, and sociology. Because policymaking involves efforts to modify or alter the behavior of policy-takers and centers on the processes of decision-making in government, it has always been concerned with behavioral psychology. Classic studies of decision-making in the field derived their frameworks and concepts from psychology, and the founder of policy sciences, Harold Lasswell, was himself trained as a behavioral political scientist. Hence, it should not be surprising that the use of behavioral science is a feature of many policy areas, including climate change policy. This is given extra emphasis, however, because climate change policymaking and the rise of climate change as a policy issue coincides with a resurgence in behaviorally inspired policy analysis and design brought about by the development of behavioral economics. Thus efforts to deal with climate change have come into being at a time when behavioral governance has been gaining traction worldwide under the influence of works by, among others, Kahneman and Tversky, Thaler, and Sunstein. Such behavioral governance studies have focused on the psychological and cognitive behavioral processes in individuals and collectives, in order to inform, design, and implement different modes of governing. They have been promoted by policy scholars, including many economists working in the area who prefer its insights to those put forward by classical or neoclassical economics. In the context of climate change policy, behavioral science plays two key roles—through its use of behaviorally premised policy instruments as new modes of public policy being used or proposed to be used, in conjunction with traditional climate change policy tools; and as a way of understanding some of the barriers to compliance and policy design encountered by governments in combating the “super wicked problem” of climate change. Five kinds of behavioral tools have been found to be most commonly used in relation to climate change policy: provision of information, use of social norms, goal setting, default rules, and framing. A large proportion of behavioral tools has been used in the energy sector, because of its importance in the context of climate change action and the fact that energy consumption is easy to monitor, thereby facilitating impact assessment.

scholarly journals The Need of Species Distribution Models Metadata: Using Species Distribution Model to Address Decision Making on Climate Change

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
pp. e25478 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wilian Costa ◽  
Leonardo Miranda ◽  
Rafael Borges ◽  
Antonio Saraiva ◽  
Vera Imperatriz-Fonseca ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Environmental Conditions ◽  
Species Distribution Models ◽  
Controlled Vocabulary ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Mandatory Requirement ◽  
Priority Species

Anthropogenic-induced climate change has already altered the conditions to which species have adapted locally, and consequently, shifts of occurrence areas have been previously reported (Chen et al. 2011). Anticipating the results of climate change is urgent, and using these results efficiently to guide decision-making can help to build strategies to protect species from those changes. Therefore, our objective is to propose the use of climate change impact assessments, obtained through species distribution models (SDMs), to guide decision making. The emphasis will be on data that could help determine the potentially vulnerable species and the priority areas, which could act as climate refuges, as well as wildlife corridors. SDMs are based on species occurrence points, available mainly from biological collections and observations (Franklin 2010). When combined with geospatially explicit layers of abiotic or biotic data (e. g. temperature, precipitation, land use), which defines the ecological requirements of species under study, it can generate species distribution models. These models are projected in the form of maps indicating areas where the species can find the most suitable habitats and, therefore, where one can most likely find them. To support public policies decision, the generation of robust and reliable model is an important factor. A minimum number of six occurrence points is a mandatory requirement, with non-overlapping area as a filter criteria. Unfortunatelly, in Brasil, as well as in Latin America in general, this type of data is scarce. Thus, with SDMs, four types of decision making information data regarding priority species and areas could be obtained (Fig. 1). Size of potential occurrence areas: species that have a small area of occurrence are potentially vulnerable, since they present endemism, usually living in restricted environmental conditions. In this case, any small change in environmental conditions can result in the extinction of the impacted species. Thus, this region needs to be protected. Difference between current and future area: species presenting the most significant reduction in potential areas should be prioritized by decision-makers. This measurement could be used as an indication of vulnerability. Even species that have no predicted area reduction or an increase could be prioritized in management programs due to its role in the complex interaction networks of ecosystem services, such as pollinators, seed dispersers or disease control. These species could be more resilient to network interaction changes due climate, and possibly are better able to provide their services in the extreme unfavorable climate scenarios. Areas that maintain higher species diversity in future scenarios: their protection could be prioritized in restoration and conservation programs. Especially in cases involving multiple species, those areas could be considered as climate refuges by decision-makers. Additionally, for the reconstruction and use of SDM published in peer-reviewed journals, it is necessary that all pieces of information about models, its generation, ensemble methods, data cleaning and data quality criteria applied should be available. The availability of the four above mentioned types of information can help on decision-making strategies aiming the protection of priority species and areas. In conclusion, SDMs present essential information about the present and future impacts of projected climate change and their derived data could be preserved using a standard controlled vocabulary.

Thermal Assessment Tool: A climate service to visualize trends of risk events related to cold snaps and heatwaves

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Blas Lajarín ◽  
Nieves Peña ◽  
Jorge Paz ◽  
Edward P. Morris ◽  
Greta C. Vega ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Data Analysis ◽  
Local Governments ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts

&lt;p&gt;The Thermal Assessment Tool has been developed within the framework of a&amp;#160;Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S)&amp;#160;contract, titled Climate Change Dashboards for Decision Makers, to provide an interactive and informative dashboard to allow users to visualize the frequency and severity of risk events related to cold snaps and heatwaves. The tool is based on historical, seasonal forecast and long-term projections datasets, available through C3S Climate Data Store (CDS). It reduces the need for repetitive complex climate data analysis, thereby saving time and effort in the decision-making process.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Climate change has already impacted ecosystems and humans, and it is foreseeing that will lead to an increase in the number and intensity of extreme weather events, including heatwaves and cold snaps. These may bring temperatures that are significantly warmer or colder than average that may cause impacts such as thermal discomfort, lack of productivity, more energy consumption and/or health problems. To reduce or at least mitigate these impacts added-value information regarding the risks of extreme temperatures is needed to make proper decisions to prepare, protect and prevent the city and citizens.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;For this purpose, the Thermal Assessment Tool provides a customized dashboard that allows users to visualize heatwaves, cold snaps and thermal comfort based on long-term projections and seasonal forecasts. The tool also presents an interactive map and a time series visualization identifying the magnitude of these three variables. This reduces the need for repetitive complex climate data analysis, thereby saving time and effort in the decision-making processes. Information on the frequency and severity of future extreme temperature events can also assist with planning.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The tool showcases how to analyze, process and simplify large volumes of data through different maps and plots that make it easier to understand climate indicators (about the past, present or future). Local governments and other decision-makers, as well as actors in housing development and management, urban planning, and insurance can refer to the tool to complement their usual information systems with additional quality-assured insights that they can act on.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Acknowledgments: We would like to thank the C3S for funding this project and the participants in the various workshops mentioned below: Ayuntamiento de Bilbao, Ihobe y la Oficina Espa&amp;#241;ola de Cambio Clim&amp;#225;tico.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Demanding stories: television coverage of sustainability, climate change and material demand

2017 ◽  
Vol 375 (2095) ◽  
pp. 20160375 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joe Smith
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Environmental Issues ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Future Role ◽  
The Past ◽  
Demand Reduction ◽  
Primary Focus ◽  
Television Coverage

This paper explores the past, present and future role of broadcasting, above all via the medium of television, in shaping how societies talk, think about and act on climate change and sustainability issues. The paper explores these broad themes via a focus on the important but relatively neglected issue of material demand and opportunities for its reduction. It takes the outputs and decision-making of one of the world's most influential broadcasters, the BBC, as its primary focus. The paper considers these themes in terms of stories, touching on some of the broader societal frames of understanding into which they can be grouped. Media decision-makers and producers from a range of genres frequently return to the centrality of ‘story’ in the development, commissioning and production of an idea. With reference to specific examples of programming, and drawing on interviews with media practitioners, the paper considers the challenges of generating broadcast stories that can inspire engagement in issues around climate change, and specifically material demand. The concluding section proposes actions and approaches that might help to establish material demand reduction as a prominent way of thinking about climate change and environmental issues more widely. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Material demand reduction’.

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