scholarly journals Production of Pig Feed under Future Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations: Changes in Crop Content and Chemical Composition, Land Use, Environmental Impact, and Socio-Economic Consequences

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 3184 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henrik Saxe ◽  
Lorie Hamelin ◽  
Torben Hinrichsen ◽  
Henrik Wenzel

With the rising atmospheric CO2, crops will assimilate more carbon. Yields will increase in terms of carbohydrates while diluting the content of protein and minerals in compound pig feed, calling for an altered formulation with more protein and less carbohydrate crops to maintain its nutritional value. Using crop response data from CO2 exposures in a linear modeling of feed formulation, we apply a consequential life cycle assessment (cLCA) to model all of the environmental impacts and socio-economic consequences that altered crop yields and chemical composition at elevated CO2 levels have on feed formulation, targeting altered amino acid contents rather than overall protein. An atmospheric CO2 of 550 µmole mole−1 gives rise to a 6% smaller demand for land use for pig feed production. However, feed produced at this CO2 must include 23% more soymeal and 5% less wheat than at present in order to keep its nutritional value. This counteracts the yield benefit. The monetized environmental cost of producing pig feed, where sunflower and soy contribute the most, equals the direct feed price in both scenarios. If external costs were internalized, honoring the Rio Declaration, feed prices would double. In contrast, the future composition of pig feed will increase the direct price by only 0.8%, while the external cost decreases by only 0.3%.

2018 ◽  
Vol 69 (4) ◽  
pp. 961-964
Author(s):  
Andrei Vasile Olteanu ◽  
Georgiana Emmanuela Gilca Blanariu ◽  
Gheorghe Gh. Balan ◽  
Dana Elena Mitrica ◽  
Elena Gologan ◽  
...  

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has become of major interest worldwide, it is estimated that more than 20% of the general population suffer from liver steatosis. NAFLD is highly associated with metabolic risk factors like type 2 diabetes mellitus, obesity and dyslipidemia, the patients diagnosed with NAFLD should adopt a high fiber low calorie diet, with reduced saturated fat and carbohydrates content, leading to weight loss and improvement of metabolic profile. Our study is aiming to shape the profile of the patient interested in being informed related to food quality and chemical composition and to evaluate the aspects on the food products label which are important for the customer. Between June 2017 and December 2017, 83 patients diagnosed with NASH were included in the study, representing the study group, while 33 subjects, without metabolic syndrome or digestive diseases, selected from patient list belonging to two general practitioners, constituted the control group. Related to the interest of being informed about the chemical composition and nutritional value of the products bought, the study showed a low interest for the provided information on nutritional value. lack of confidence in the provided information and complexity of the information are understandable, the high number of subject reasoning through lack of immediate clinical benefit is surprising. Among the healthy population the willingness to pay attention to this aspect is extremely low.


2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (19) ◽  
pp. 3883-3910 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lina Teckentrup ◽  
Sandy P. Harrison ◽  
Stijn Hantson ◽  
Angelika Heil ◽  
Joe R. Melton ◽  
...  

Abstract. Understanding how fire regimes change over time is of major importance for understanding their future impact on the Earth system, including society. Large differences in simulated burned area between fire models show that there is substantial uncertainty associated with modelling global change impacts on fire regimes. We draw here on sensitivity simulations made by seven global dynamic vegetation models participating in the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP) to understand how differences in models translate into differences in fire regime projections. The sensitivity experiments isolate the impact of the individual drivers on simulated burned area, which are prescribed in the simulations. Specifically these drivers are atmospheric CO2 concentration, population density, land-use change, lightning and climate. The seven models capture spatial patterns in burned area. However, they show considerable differences in the burned area trends since 1921. We analyse the trajectories of differences between the sensitivity and reference simulation to improve our understanding of what drives the global trends in burned area. Where it is possible, we link the inter-model differences to model assumptions. Overall, these analyses reveal that the largest uncertainties in simulating global historical burned area are related to the representation of anthropogenic ignitions and suppression and effects of land use on vegetation and fire. In line with previous studies this highlights the need to improve our understanding and model representation of the relationship between human activities and fire to improve our abilities to model fire within Earth system model applications. Only two models show a strong response to atmospheric CO2 concentration. The effects of changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration on fire are complex and quantitative information of how fuel loads and how flammability changes due to this factor is missing. The response to lightning on global scale is low. The response of burned area to climate is spatially heterogeneous and has a strong inter-annual variation. Climate is therefore likely more important than the other factors for short-term variations and extremes in burned area. This study provides a basis to understand the uncertainties in global fire modelling. Both improvements in process understanding and observational constraints reduce uncertainties in modelling burned area trends.


1991 ◽  
Vol 42 (2) ◽  
pp. 145-151 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fereidoon Shahidi ◽  
Marian Naczk ◽  
Ronald B. Pegg ◽  
Jozef Synowiecki

2018 ◽  
Vol 267 ◽  
pp. 296-302 ◽  
Author(s):  
Spyridon A. Petropoulos ◽  
Carla Pereira ◽  
Georgia Ntatsi ◽  
Nikolaos Danalatos ◽  
Lillian Barros ◽  
...  

2012 ◽  
Vol 131 (2) ◽  
pp. 449-455 ◽  
Author(s):  
Weicheng Hu ◽  
Chaoqing Huang ◽  
Myeong-Hyeon Wang

2016 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 953-968 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fanny Langerwisch ◽  
Ariane Walz ◽  
Anja Rammig ◽  
Britta Tietjen ◽  
Kirsten Thonicke ◽  
...  

Abstract. Fluxes of organic and inorganic carbon within the Amazon basin are considerably controlled by annual flooding, which triggers the export of terrigenous organic material to the river and ultimately to the Atlantic Ocean. The amount of carbon imported to the river and the further conversion, transport and export of it depend on temperature, atmospheric CO2, terrestrial productivity and carbon storage, as well as discharge. Both terrestrial productivity and discharge are influenced by climate and land use change. The coupled LPJmL and RivCM model system (Langerwisch et al., 2016) has been applied to assess the combined impacts of climate and land use change on the Amazon riverine carbon dynamics. Vegetation dynamics (in LPJmL) as well as export and conversion of terrigenous carbon to and within the river (RivCM) are included. The model system has been applied for the years 1901 to 2099 under two deforestation scenarios and with climate forcing of three SRES emission scenarios, each for five climate models. We find that high deforestation (business-as-usual scenario) will strongly decrease (locally by up to 90 %) riverine particulate and dissolved organic carbon amount until the end of the current century. At the same time, increase in discharge leaves net carbon transport during the first decades of the century roughly unchanged only if a sufficient area is still forested. After 2050 the amount of transported carbon will decrease drastically. In contrast to that, increased temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration determine the amount of riverine inorganic carbon stored in the Amazon basin. Higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations increase riverine inorganic carbon amount by up to 20 % (SRES A2). The changes in riverine carbon fluxes have direct effects on carbon export, either to the atmosphere via outgassing or to the Atlantic Ocean via discharge. The outgassed carbon will increase slightly in the Amazon basin, but can be regionally reduced by up to 60 % due to deforestation. The discharge of organic carbon to the ocean will be reduced by about 40 % under the most severe deforestation and climate change scenario. These changes would have local and regional consequences on the carbon balance and habitat characteristics in the Amazon basin itself as well as in the adjacent Atlantic Ocean.


2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (16) ◽  
pp. 7739-7751 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Gloor ◽  
J. L. Sarmiento ◽  
N. Gruber

Abstract. The ratio of CO2 accumulating in the atmosphere to the CO2 flux into the atmosphere due to human activity, the airborne fraction AF, is central to predict changes in earth's surface temperature due to greenhouse gas induced warming. This ratio has remained remarkably constant in the past five decades, but recent studies have reported an apparent increasing trend and interpreted it as an indication for a decrease in the efficiency of the combined sinks by the ocean and terrestrial biosphere. We investigate here whether this interpretation is correct by analyzing the processes that control long-term trends and decadal-scale variations in the AF. To this end, we use simplified linear models for describing the time evolution of an atmospheric CO2 perturbation. We find firstly that the spin-up time of the system for the AF to converge to a constant value is on the order of 200–300 years and differs depending on whether exponentially increasing fossil fuel emissions only or the sum of fossil fuel and land use emissions are used. We find secondly that the primary control on the decadal time-scale variations of the AF is variations in the relative growth rate of the total anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Changes in sink efficiencies tend to leave a smaller imprint. Therefore, before interpreting trends in the AF as an indication of weakening carbon sink efficiency, it is necessary to account for trends and variations in AF stemming from anthropogenic emissions and other extrinsic forcing events, such as volcanic eruptions. Using atmospheric CO2 data and emission estimates for the period 1959 through 2006, and our simple predictive models for the AF, we find that likely omissions in the reported emissions from land use change and extrinsic forcing events are sufficient to explain the observed long-term trend in AF. Therefore, claims for a decreasing long-term trend in the carbon sink efficiency over the last few decades are currently not supported by atmospheric CO2 data and anthropogenic emissions estimates.


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