scholarly journals Quantifying the Impacts of Climate Change on Streamflow Dynamics of Two Major Rivers of the Northern Lake Erie Basin in Canada

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 2897 ◽  
Author(s):  
Binbin Zhang ◽  
Narayan Shrestha ◽  
Prasad Daggupati ◽  
Ramesh Rudra ◽  
Rituraj Shukla ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Soil Water ◽  
Lake Erie ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Soil Water Storage ◽  
Climatic Data ◽  
Monthly Streamflow

This paper focuses on understanding the effects of projected climate change on streamflow dynamics of the Grand and Thames rivers of the Northern Lake Erie (NLE) basin. A soil water assessment tool (SWAT) model is developed, calibrated, and validated in a base-period. The model is able to simulate the monthly streamflow dynamics with ‘Good’ to ‘Very Good’ accuracy. The calibrated and validated model is then subjected with daily bias-corrected future climatic data from the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CanRCM4). Five bias-correction methods and their 12 combinations were evaluated using the Climate Model data for hydrologic modeling (CMhyd). Distribution mapping (DM) performed the best and was used for further analysis. Two future time-periods and two IPCC AR5 representative concentration pathways (RCPs) are considered. Results showed marked temporal and spatial variability in precipitation (−37% to +63%) and temperature (−3 °C to +14 °C) changes, which are reflected in evapotranspiration (−52% to +412%) and soil water storage (−60% to +12%) changes, resulting in heterogeneity in streamflow (−77% to +170%) changes. On average, increases in winter (+11%), and decreases in spring (–33%), summer (−23%), and autumn (−15%) streamflow are expected in future. This is the first work of this kind in the NLE and such marked variability in water resources availability poses considerable challenges to water resources planners and managers.

scholarly journals Predicting hydrologic responses to climate changes in highly glacierized and mountainous region Upper Indus Basin

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (8) ◽  
pp. 191957 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Izhar Shah ◽  
Asif Khan ◽  
Tahir Ali Akbar ◽  
Quazi K. Hassan ◽  
Asim Jahangir Khan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Indus Basin ◽  
Upper Indus Basin

The Upper Indus Basin (UIB) is a major source of supplying water to different areas because of snow and glaciers melt and is also enduring the regional impacts of global climate change. The expected changes in temperature, precipitation and snowmelt could be reasons for further escalation of the problem. Therefore, estimation of hydrological processes is critical for UIB. The objectives of this paper were to estimate the impacts of climate change on water resources and future projection for surface water under different climatic scenarios using soil and water assessment tool (SWAT). The methodology includes: (i) development of SWAT model using land cover, soil and meteorological data; (ii) calibration of the model using daily flow data from 1978 to 1993; (iii) model validation for the time 1994–2003; (iv) bias correction of regional climate model (RCM), and (v) utilization of bias-corrected RCM for future assessment under representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for mid (2041–2070) and late century (2071–2100). The results of the study revealed a strong correlation between simulated and observed flow with R 2 and Nash–Sutcliff efficiency (NSE) equal to 0.85 each for daily flow. For validation, R 2 and NSE were found to be 0.84 and 0.80, respectively. Compared to baseline period (1976–2005), the result of RCM showed an increase in temperature ranging from 2.36°C to 3.50°C and 2.92°C to 5.23°C for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively, till the end of the twenty-first century. Likewise, the increase in annual average precipitation is 2.4% to 2.5% and 6.0% to 4.6% (mid to late century) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. The model simulation results for RCP4.5 showed increase in flow by 19.24% and 16.78% for mid and late century, respectively. For RCP8.5, the increase in flow is 20.13% and 15.86% during mid and late century, respectively. The model was more sensitive towards available moisture and snowmelt parameters. Thus, SWAT model could be used as effective tool for climate change valuation and for sustainable management of water resources in future.

scholarly journals A Review of SWAT Model Application in Africa

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 1313
Author(s):  
George Akoko ◽  
Tu Hoang Le ◽  
Takashi Gomi ◽  
Tasuku Kato
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Hydrological Modeling ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Model Parameterization ◽  
Basin Scale

The soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) is a well-known hydrological modeling tool that has been applied in various hydrologic and environmental simulations. A total of 206 studies over a 15-year period (2005–2019) were identified from various peer-reviewed scientific journals listed on the SWAT website database, which is supported by the Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD). These studies were categorized into five areas, namely applications considering: water resources and streamflow, erosion and sedimentation, land-use management and agricultural-related contexts, climate-change contexts, and model parameterization and dataset inputs. Water resources studies were applied to understand hydrological processes and responses in various river basins. Land-use and agriculture-related context studies mainly analyzed impacts and mitigation measures on the environment and provided insights into better environmental management. Erosion and sedimentation studies using the SWAT model were done to quantify sediment yield and evaluate soil conservation measures. Climate-change context studies mainly demonstrated streamflow sensitivity to weather changes. The model parameterization studies highlighted parameter selection in streamflow analysis, model improvements, and basin scale calibrations. Dataset inputs mainly compared simulations with rain-gauge and global rainfall data sources. The challenges and advantages of the SWAT model’s applications, which range from data availability and prediction uncertainties to the model’s capability in various applications, are highlighted. Discussions on considerations for future simulations such as data sharing, and potential for better future analysis are also highlighted. Increased efforts in local data availability and a multidimensional approach in future simulations are recommended.

scholarly journals Estimation of Water Storage Changes in Small Endorheic Lakes in Northern Kazakhstan; The Effect of Climate Change and Anthropogenic Influences 

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vadim Yapiyev ◽  
Kanat Samarkhanov ◽  
Dauren Zhumabayev ◽  
Nazym Tulegenova ◽  
Saltanat Jumassultanova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Human Impacts ◽  
Water Storage ◽  
Minor Importance ◽  
Climatic Data

Both climate change and anthropogenic activities contribute to the deterioration of terrestrial water resources and ecosystems worldwide. Central Asian endorheic basins are among the most affected regions through both climate and human impacts. Here, we used a digital elevation model, digitized bathymetry maps and Landsat images to estimate the areal water cover extent and volumetric storage changes in small terminal lakes in Burabay National Nature Park (BNNP), located in Northern Central Asia (CA), for the period of 1986 to 2016. Based on the analysis of long-term climatic data from meteorological stations, short-term hydrometeorological network observations, gridded climate datasets (CRU) and global atmospheric reanalysis (ERA Interim), we have evaluated the impacts of historical climatic conditions on the water balance of BNNP lake catchments. We also discuss the future based on regional climate model projections. We attribute the overall decline of BNNP lakes to long-term deficit of water balance with lake evaporation loss exceeding precipitation inputs. Direct anthropogenic water abstraction has a minor importance in water balance. However, the changes in watersheds caused by the expansion of human settlements and roads disrupting water drainage may play a more significant role in lake water storage decline. More precise water resources assessment at the local scale will be facilitated by further development of freely available higher spatial resolution remote sensing products. In addition, the results of this work can be used for the development of lake/reservoir evaporation models driven by remote sensing and atmospheric reanalysis data without the direct use of ground observations.

scholarly journals Assessing Impacts of Climate Variability and Reforestation Activities on Water Resources in the Headwaters of the Segura River Basin (SE Spain)

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 3277 ◽  
Author(s):  
Javier Senent-Aparicio ◽  
Sitian Liu ◽  
Julio Pérez-Sánchez ◽  
Adrián López-Ballesteros ◽  
Patricia Jimeno-Sáez
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Forest Area ◽  
Se Spain ◽  
Monthly Streamflow ◽  
Agricultural Areas ◽  
Water Assessment

Climate change and the land-use and land-cover changes (LULC) resulting from anthropic activity are important factors in the degradation of an ecosystem and in the availability of a basin’s water resources. To know how these activities affect the quantity of the water resources of basins, such as the Segura River Basin, is of vital importance. In this work, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used for the study of the abovementioned impacts. The model was validated by obtaining a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.88 and a percent bias (PBIAS) of 17.23%, indicating that SWAT accurately replicated monthly streamflow. Next, land-use maps for the years of 1956 and 2007 were used to establish a series of scenarios that allowed us to evaluate the effects of these activities on both joint and individual water resources. A reforestation plan applied in the basin during the 1970s caused that the forest area had almost doubled, whereas the agricultural areas and shrubland had been reduced by one-third. These modifications, together with the effect of climate change, have led to a decrease of 26.3% in the quantity of generated water resources, not only due to climate change but also due to the increase in forest area.

scholarly journals Soil-Water Storage Predictions for Cultivated Crops on the Záhorská Lowlands

2016 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 31-40
Author(s):  
Miroslava Jarabicová ◽  
Peter Minarič
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Soil Water ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Spring Barley ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Water Storage ◽  
Soil Water Storage ◽  
Reference Period ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Upper Boundary

Abstract The main objective of this paper is to evaluate the impact of climate change on the soil-water regime of the Záhorská lowlands. The consequences of climate change on soil-water storage were analyzed for two crops: spring barley and maize. We analyzed the consequences of climate change on soil-water storage for two crops: spring barley and maize. The soil-water storage was simulated with the GLOBAL mathematical model. The data entered into the model as upper boundary conditions were established by the SRES A2 and SRES B1 climate scenarios and the KNMI regional climate model for the years from 2071 to 2100 (in the text called the time horizon 2085 which is in the middle this period). For the reference period the data from the years 1961-1990 was used. The results of this paper predict soil-water storage until the end of this century for the crops evaluated, as well as a comparison of the soil-water storage predictions with the course of the soil-water storage during the reference period.

scholarly journals Quantitative Attribution of Runoff Attenuation to Climate Change and Human Activity in Typical Mountainous Areas: An Enlightenment to Water Resource Sustainable Utilization and Management in North China

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (24) ◽  
pp. 10395
Author(s):  
Yufei Jiao ◽  
Jia Liu ◽  
Chuanzhe Li ◽  
Wei Wang ◽  
Fuliang Yu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Resource ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
North China ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Sustainable Utilization

The influence of climate change and human activities on hydrological elements has increased along with increasing dependence on water resources. Therefore, quantitative attribution of hydrological elements has received wide attention. In this study, the double mass curve (DMC) is used to assess the abrupt change point of the hydrological data series, based on which the periods with/without large-scale human activities causing runoff attenuation are separated. The land use transition matrix is then employed to analyze the land use types at different historical stages, and the sensitivities of the runoff attenuation to different land use/cover change (LUCC) categories are quantified. A soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model that considers the underlying surface is constructed with six designed scenarios of different climate and LUCC conditions. Taking three typical mountainous basins in North China as the study area, the quantitative contributions of climate change and human activities to the water resources are identified. The results of the study have brought enlightenment to the water resource sustainable utilization and management in North China, and the methodologies can be transferred to runoff attribution analysis in water shortage areas.

scholarly journals Modeling hydrologic processes and potential responses to climate change in an agro-silvo-pastoral watershed in the Mediterranean area

2020 ◽  
Vol 383 ◽  
pp. 151-158
Author(s):  
Youssef Brouziyne ◽  
Lahcen Benaabidate ◽  
Aziz Abouabdillah ◽  
Rachid Bouabid ◽  
Abdelghani Chehbouni
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Flow Direction ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Water Yield ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Hydrologic Processes

Abstract. Precipitation changes and water use patterns are two factors affecting the water quantity; obviously, hydrologic processes are always linked to many elements in the watershed scale, so to understand water management issues it is fundamental to analyze the different elements of hydrologic processes occurring in the watershed. In this study, the “SWAT” model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) has been used to simulate the water balance for the present climate conditions on a semi arid watershed located in the central North of Morocco (R'dom). The study watershed covers an area of 1993 km2, and is hosting farming, pasture and forestry related activities. The water stress situation in the R'dom watershed can be summarized as limited resource facing increasing water demand. SWAT model was first run and calibrated under current climate; and was driven with downscaled climate simulations to generate future hydrological projections for R'dom watershed in the 2031 to 2050 horizon under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): 4.5 and 8.5. The results of the study showed that the water balance in R'dom watershed is dominated by evapotranspiration and the water resources distribution within the watershed is uneven and follows a decreasing gradient matching the flow direction. The main results of climate change scenarios showed that R'dom watershed will undergo significant decrease of water resources availability with more economic impact under the scenario RCP8.5 as all areas hosting the economical activities will be affected and the highest changes of water yield should be under this scenario.

Climate change variability assessment on water resources by SWAT model: A Review

2021 ◽  
pp. 246-268
Author(s):  
Amit Raj ◽  
M.Siva Kumar ◽  
Satish Kumar ◽  
H.P. Singh
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Renewable Resource ◽  
Base Flow ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Geographical Regions

Water is a renewable resource for the Sustaining Ecosystem. Rapid industrialization and population impacts the climate. The imbalance of Climate changes over various geographical regions affects the hydrological and morphological behaviour of water resources. The Water balances of the system are analysed via the SWAT Model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool). By simulating and predicting future hydrological behaviour with different scenarios using many climatological models. Using weather data and predicting future hydrological outputs such as Runoff, Temperature, Base flow, groundwater flow, AET etc. in 21st century. Model is calibrated and validated using statistical methods. Results of various modelling Researches in field of SWAT and their major findings are discussed in this review paper. The future Scope of SWAT modelling and its Applications are also recommended. Forty papers are discussed in tabular form with their results and their future improvements were concluded. This paper fulfills a need for precise and quick reviews of recent researches in field of SWAT modelling with climate change on water resources. This will help researchers, academician’s insights into precise climate change impacts on water resources in 21st Century. Necessary steps to be adopted for their successful extreme repercussions of climate change and measures adopted for managing the severe damages to our Ecosystem with sustainable development goals in new millennium are discussed.

scholarly journals Understanding the Impacts of Climate Change in the Tana River Basin, Kenya

2018 ◽  
Vol 379 ◽  
pp. 37-42 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lal Muthuwatta ◽  
Aditya Sood ◽  
Matthew McCartney ◽  
Nishchitha Sandeepana Silva ◽  
Alfred Opere
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Base Flow ◽  
Water Yield ◽  
Hydrological Characteristics ◽  
Tana River

Abstract. In the Tana River Basin in Kenya, six Regional Circulation Models (RCMs) simulating two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) (i.e., 4.5 and 8.5) were used as input to the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to determine the possible implications for the hydrology and water resources of the basin. Four hydrological characteristics – water yield, groundwater recharge, base flow and flow regulation – were determined and mapped throughout the basin for three 30-year time periods: 2020–2049, 2040–2069 and 2070–2099. Results were compared with a baseline period, 1983–2011. All four hydrological characteristics show steady increases under both RCPs for the entire basin but with considerable spatial heterogeneity and greater increases under RCP 8.5 than RCP 4.5. The results have important implications for the way water resources in the basin are managed. It is imperative that water managers and policy makers take into account the additional challenges imposed by climate change in operating built infrastructure.

scholarly journals Modeling future changes in the North-Estonian hydropower production by using SWAT

2015 ◽  
Vol 47 (4) ◽  
pp. 835-846 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ottar Tamm ◽  
Andres Luhamaa ◽  
Toomas Tamm
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Water Volume ◽  
Discharge Data ◽  
Calibration And Validation ◽  
Hydropower Potential ◽  
Hydropower Production

Climate change is altering temperature, precipitation, and other climatic parameters, affecting sectors dependent on water resources, e.g. energy production. The purpose of this study is to analyze the possible influences of climate change on hydropower potential in North Estonia. In Estonian run-of-river hydropower plants, energy comes mainly from water volume. Thus, changes in hydropower production are related to changes in river runoff. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is used to study runoff responses to climate change in Kunda, Keila and Valgejõe river basins. A sequential uncertainty fitting algorithm is used for calibration and validation of hydrological models. Two modeling studies from EURO-CORDEX high-resolution simulations are used: RACMO regional climate model (RCM) from the Netherlands (KNMI) and HIRHAM5 RCM from Denmark (DMI). Hydrological model efficiency is evaluated with coefficient of determination (R2), Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and percent bias (PBIAS). The NSE values range from 0.71 to 0.77 during calibration and validation. The PBIAS reveals no significant bias. Daily discharge data of the baseline period (1971–2000) and the future period (2071–2100) for KNMI and DMI scenarios reveal an overall increase in hydropower potential. Larger changes are predicted by the DMI model, while KNMI prediction is lower, 25% and 45% respectively.

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