scholarly journals Causality between Oil Prices and Tourist Arrivals

Stats ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 134-154 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xu Huang ◽  
Emmanuel Silva ◽  
Hossein Hassani
Keyword(s):  
Frequency Domain ◽  
Time Domain ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Oil Price Volatility ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
The Time Domain ◽  
The Impact

This paper investigates the causal relationship between oil price and tourist arrivals to further explain the impact of oil price volatility on tourism-related economic activities. The analysis itself considers the time domain, frequency domain, and information theory domain perspectives. Data relating to the US and nine European countries are exploited in this paper with causality tests which include the time domain, frequency domain, and Convergent Cross Mapping (CCM). The CCM approach is nonparametric and therefore not restricted by assumptions. We contribute to existing research through the successful and introductory application of an advanced method and via the uncovering of significant causal links from oil prices to tourist arrivals.

OIL PRICE FLUCTUATIONS AND STOCK MARKET BEHAVIOR IN A RESOURCE-DOMINANT ECONOMY: CASE OF KAZAKHSTAN

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-25
Author(s):  
MOLDIR MUKAN ◽  
YESSENGALI OSKENBAYEV ◽  
NIKI NADERI ◽  
YERGALI DOSMAGAMBET
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Stock Market Index ◽  
Oil Price Volatility ◽  
Positive Shock ◽  
The Impact

During the past 10 years, the oil market has been very unpredictable and volatile, which created uneasy conditions for market participants. The remedy of increasing oil prices is considered as a positive factor for the economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan as an oil-exporting country. Using structural decomposition of vector autoregression (VAR), this study aims to examine how the whole financial system in Kazakhstan is depending on oil prices. The results suggest that the strongest factor affecting the stock index is aggregate demand, and the impact of oil production shocks on the equity market is, on average, insignificant. Such shocks can be discounted while a fall in oil prices affects financial conditions as a whole, damaging the solvency of Kazakhstan, an oil-exporting country. With the positive shock of aggregate demand, the stock market index tends to rise. There is also an effect of oil price volatility on changes in currency value, which also influences the financial situation of the country. Moreover, oil-exporting countries such as Kazakhstan can secure and support their economies with the help of “stable aggregate demand”. The focus on Kazakhstan as one of the oil-producing countries is interesting for at least two reasons. Importantly, oil-exporting countries supply oil to really strong countries concentrating on manufacturing and other industries. Besides, this study provides useful insights for countries with similar economic conditions, including similar stock market development.

scholarly journals EFECTOS DE LA INCERTIDUMBRE DE LOS PRECIOS DEL PETRÓLEO EN EL CRECIMIENTO ECONÓMICO DE MÉXICO

2019 ◽  
Vol 78 (309) ◽  
pp. 80 ◽  
Author(s):  
Domingo Rodríguez Benavides ◽  
Francisco López Herrera
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Negative Influence ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Market Uncertainty ◽  
Oil Price Volatility ◽  
The Impact

<p>En este trabajo investigamos si la incertidumbre del precio internacional del petróleo incidió en la actividad económica de México durante 1983:2-2017:4. Empleamos un modelo de vectores autorregresivos (VAR) estructural bivariado con un proceso generalizado autorregresivo de heterocedasticidad condicional (GARCH) en media que captura el impacto de la volatilidad del petróleo en el crecimiento económico y la formación bruta de capital fijo. Nuestros resultados muestran que la incertidumbre del mercado petrolero tiene una influencia negativa en la actividad económica. Además, revelan la presencia de efectos asimétricos: la tasa de crecimiento de la producción aumenta (disminuye) después de un choque negativo (positivo) en el precio del petróleo. Estos resultados destacan la importancia de políticas públicas que mitiguen el efecto de la incertidumbre del mercado petrolero y contribuyan a la estabilidad económica.</p><p align="center"> </p><p align="center">EFFECTS OF OIL PRICES UNCERTAINTY ON MEXICO’S ECONOMIC GROWTH</p><p align="center"><strong>ABSTRACT</strong></p><p>We inquire whether the uncertainty of international oil prices affected Mexico’s economic activity during 1983:2-2017:4. To measure such impact we use a bivariate structural vector autoregressive (VAR) model with a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) in-mean process that captures the impact of oil price volatility on economic growth and gross fixed capital formation. Our results show that the said uncertainty has a negative influence on Mexico’s economic activity. Further, they reveal the presence of asymmetric effects, as the output growth rate increases (decreases) after a negative (positive) oil price shock. These results highlight the importance of adopting public policies aimed at mitigating the effects of oil market uncertainty and help stabilize economic activity.</p>

scholarly journals The Effects of Oil Price Volatility on the Economic Sectors of Libya

2017 ◽  
Vol 6 (12) ◽  
pp. 13
Author(s):  
Nagmi M. Moftah Aimer
Keyword(s):  
Policy Development ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Oil Price Volatility ◽  
The Impact

<p>Fluctuations in oil price and its impact on economic development is an important issue facing a growing number of world economies. A simple changes in oil prices lead to negative or positive effects on all the economic sectors. This paper seeks to investigate the impact of oil price volatility on economic sectors in the Libyan economy context on the basis of annual data spanning from 1968-2012. The Johansen based Co-integration technique is applied to examine the sensitivity of economic sectors to volatility in oil prices in the long-run. And the short-run relationship is tested by Vector Error Correction Model. Through examining the results, that there is a long-term relationship of oil prices on the agriculture, construction, manufacturing and transport sectors. Finally, this study concludes that increases in oil price did not significantly affect the manufacturing sector in aggregate terms. Moreover, the negative impact on the sector of manufacturing and agriculture. Thus, this study has a significant impact in the Libyan economy in policy development on oil prices. The Libyan government needs to control the price to make sure that price volatility will not harm the manufacturing, agriculture, construction and transport sectors.</p>

scholarly journals EXPLORING THE INFLATIONARY EFFECT OF OIL PRICE VOLATILITY IN AFRICA’S OIL EXPORTING COUNTRIES

2020 ◽  
pp. 113
Author(s):  
Sina Jimoh Ogede ◽  
Emmanuel Oladapo George ◽  
Ibrahim Ayoade Adekunle
Keyword(s):  
Price Volatility ◽  
Estimation Procedure ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Price Inflation ◽  
Substantial Impact ◽  
Oil Price Volatility ◽  
Relationship Outcomes ◽  
Precautionary Measures ◽  
Level Of Significance ◽  
The Impact

A range of explanations had been offered for the apparent change in oil price-inflation relationship outcomes ranging from the possible use of alternate energy sources, change in the structure of output regarding fewer oil intensive sectors and the role of fiscal and monetary in the affected oil-exporting countries. These changes had drawn the attention of stakeholders, government and the society at large to the anecdotal relationship among oil price volatility, inflation, and output in Africa oil-exporting countries. This study leans empirical credence to the impact of oil price volatility on inflation and economic performance in the Africa oil-exporting countries from 1995 through 2017. We employed the Pool Mean Group estimation procedure with the inference drawn at a 5% level of significance. We found that oil price volatility had a negative and significant effect on inflation in Africa oil-exporting countries. The study concluded that oil price volatility had a substantial impact on inflation in the Africa oil-exporting countries. The study, therefore, recommended that Africa oil-exporting countries should adopt precautionary measures to monitor inflation potentials due to different responses of inflation to positive and negative oil price shocks.

The impact of oil price volatility on net-oil exporter and importer countries’ stock markets

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 231-253 ◽  
Author(s):  
Berna Aydoğan ◽  
Gökçe Tunç ◽  
Tezer Yelkenci
Keyword(s):  
Stock Markets ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Oil Price Volatility ◽  
The Impact

VOLATILITY IN OIL PRICES AND MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY: AN INVESTIGATION OF REAL OPTIONS

2011 ◽  
Vol 15 (S3) ◽  
pp. 379-395 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Elder ◽  
Apostolos Serletis
Keyword(s):  
Real Options ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Capital Budgeting ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Real Options Theory ◽  
Oil Price Volatility ◽  
Manufacturing Activity ◽  
General Specification

Previous research shows that volatility in oil prices has tended to depress output, as measured by nonresidential investment and GDP. This is interpreted as evidence in support of the theory of real options in capital budgeting decisions, which predicts that uncertainty about, for example, commodity prices will cause firms to delay production and investment. We continue that investigation by analyzing the effect of oil price uncertainty on monthly measures of U.S. firm production related to industries in mining, manufacturing, and utilities. We use a more general specification, an updated sample that includes the increased oil price volatility since 2008, and we control for other nonlinear measures of oil prices. We find additional empirical evidence in support of the predictions of real options theory, and our results indicate that the extreme volatility in oil prices observed in 2008 and 2009 contributed to the severity of the decline in manufacturing activity.

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