scholarly journals Forecasting Key Retail Performance Indicators Using Interpretable Regression

Sensors ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (5) ◽  
pp. 1874
Author(s):  
Belisario Panay ◽  
Nelson Baloian ◽  
José A. Pino ◽  
Sergio Peñafiel ◽  
Jonathan Frez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Conversion Rate ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Business Managers ◽  
Sales Prediction ◽  
Comparable Performance ◽  
Additional Processing ◽  
Day Of The Week ◽  
Performance Forecasting ◽  
Near Future

Foot traffic, conversion rate, and total sales during a period of time may be considered to be important indicators of store performance. Forecasting them may allow for business managers plan stores operation in the near future in an efficient way. This work presents a regression method that is able to predict these three indicators based on previous data. The previous data includes values for the indicators in the recent past; therefore, it is a requirement to have gathered them in a suitable manner. The previous data also considers other values that are easily obtained, such as the day of the week and hour of the day of the indicators. The novelty of the approach that is presented here is that it provides a confidence interval for the predicted information and the importance of each parameter for the predicted output values, without additional processing or analysis. Real data gathered by Follow Up, a customer experience company, was used to test the proposed method. The method was tried for making predictions for up to one month in the future. The results of the experiments show that the proposed method has a comparable performance to the best methods proposed in the past that do not provide confidence intervals or parameter rankings. The method obtains RMSE of 0.0713 for foot traffic prediction, 0.0795 for conversion rate forecasting, and 0.0757 for sales prediction.

Investigation of Timing Anomalies in the Russian Stock Market in the Post-Crisis Period

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 37-47
Author(s):  
I. Ya. Lukasevich
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Information Technologies ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
Fair Value ◽  
Presidential Decree ◽  
Day Of The Week ◽  
Russian Stock Market ◽  
Economic Growth Rates ◽  
Global And Local

The implementation of the May presidential decree aimed at Russia’s joining the top five global economies and achieving economic growth rates above the world’s average while maintaining macroeconomic stability requires a highly developed and efficient stock market ensuring the accumulation of capital and its deployment in the most promising and productive sectors of the economy.The subject of the research is timing anomalies in the Russian stock market in 2012–2018. The relevance of the research is due to the information inefficiency of the Russian stock market and its imperfections leading to significant price deviations from the «fair» value of assets and depriving investors of the opportunity to form various strategies for deriving additional revenues not related to fundamental economic factors and objective processes occurring in the global and local economies and the economy of an individual business entity. Based on the trend analysis of the Broad Market USD Index (RUBMI), the paper demonstrates a methodology for simulating the analysis of price anomalies on large arrays of real data using statistical data processing methods and modern information technologies. The paper concludes that though the Russian stock market lacks even the weak form of efficiency, such well-known timing anomalies as the “day-of-the-week” effect and the “month” effect have not been observed in the recent years. Therefore, investors could not use these anomalies to derive regular revenues above the market average.

scholarly journals Correctable biliary atresia and cholangiocarcinoma: a case report of a 63-year-old patient

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Masaki Nio ◽  
Motoshi Wada ◽  
Hideyuki Sasaki ◽  
Hiromu Tanaka ◽  
Masatoshi Hashimoto ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Biliary Atresia ◽  
Liver Tumors ◽  
Malignant Tumors ◽  
Porta Hepatis ◽  
Case Presentation ◽  
Cancer Occurrence ◽  
Long Term Survivors ◽  
Near Future

Abstract Background Although cancer occurrence following surgery for biliary atresia has gradually increased, the development of cholangiocarcinoma in a native liver survivor of biliary atresia is extremely rare. Case presentation A 3-month-old female patient with the correctable type of biliary atresia underwent a cystoduodenostomy. At 16 years of age, she underwent multiple surgeries including lysis of intestinal adhesions, ileostomy, and gastrojejunostomy at another hospital. At 54 years of age, she underwent lithotomy at the porta hepatis, resection of the residual cystic bile duct with gallbladder, and hepaticojejunostomy in Roux-en-Y fashion. As she approached the age of 63, her computed tomography scan showed no liver tumors. In the following year, she developed cholangiocarcinoma at the porta hepatis and underwent chemotherapy. However, the cancer progressed, and she died before she reached the age of 64 years. Conclusions Cholangiocarcinoma is extremely rare in patients with biliary atresia. However, physicians should follow up patients with biliary atresia as closely as possible, as malignant tumors secondary to biliary atresia may increase in number in the near future because of the growing number of long-term survivors with biliary atresia.

scholarly journals Dynamic risk stratification in the follow-up of thyroid cancer: what is still to be discovered in 2017?

2017 ◽  
Vol 24 (11) ◽  
pp. R387-R402 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jolanta Krajewska ◽  
Ewa Chmielik ◽  
Barbara Jarząb
Keyword(s):  
Thyroid Cancer ◽  
Thyroid Carcinoma ◽  
Risk Stratification ◽  
Prospective Studies ◽  
Response To Treatment ◽  
Dynamic Risk ◽  
Primary Surgery ◽  
Risk Patients ◽  
Near Future

The adequate risk stratification in thyroid carcinoma is crucial to avoid on one hand the overtreatment of low-risk and on the other hand the undertreatment of high-risk patients. The question how to properly assess the risk of relapse has been discussed during recent years and resulted in a substantial change in our approach to risk stratification in differentiated thyroid cancer, proposed by the newest ATA guidelines. First initial risk stratification, based on histopathological data is carried out just after primary surgery. It should be emphasized, that a high quality of histopathological report is crucial for proper risk stratification. Next, during the follow-up, patients are restratified considering their response to treatment applied and classified to one of the following categories: excellent response, biochemical incomplete response, structural incomplete or indeterminate response. This new approach is called dynamic risk stratification as, in contrary to the previous rigid evaluation performed at diagnosis, reflects a real-time prognosis and thereby substantially influences and personalizes disease management. In this review, we raise some unresolved questions, among them the lack of prospective studies, fulfilling evidence-based criteria, necessary to validate this model of risk stratification. We also provided some data concerning the use of dynamic risk stratification in medullary thyroid cancer, not yet reflected in ATA guidelines. In conclusion, dynamic risk stratification allows for better prediction of the risk of recurrence in thyroid carcinoma, what has been demonstrated in numerous retrospective analyses. However, the validation of this approach in prospective studies seems to be our task for near future.

scholarly journals Tracheal surgery

2016 ◽  
Vol 73 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
A. D'Andrilli ◽  
E.A. Rendina ◽  
F. Venuta
Keyword(s):  
Surgical Resection ◽  
Surgical Techniques ◽  
Treatment Modalities ◽  
Malignant Neoplasms ◽  
New Techniques ◽  
Multidisciplinary Cooperation ◽  
Post Traumatic ◽  
Post Intubation ◽  
Near Future

Surgical resection and reconstruction of the trachea can be performed both for benign and malignant diseases. The main indications for surgery include inflammatory (generally post-intubation), congenital or post-traumatic stenoses, degenerative lesions, benign or malignant neoplasms. Success can be pursued only by accurate patient selection and timing, meticulous surgical techniques, careful follow up and, when required, multidisciplinary cooperation. Although surgical resection has now become part of our surgical practice, other treatment modalities are approaching a new clinical application era, in particular tracheal transplantation and bioengineering. These new techniques will certainly offer, in the near future, improved chances to treat difficult cases.

scholarly journals A prospective, observational study on conversion of Clinically Isolated Syndrome to Multiple Sclerosis during 4-year period (MS NEO study) in Taiwan

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Long-Sun Ro ◽  
Chih-Chao Yang ◽  
Rong-Kuo Lyu ◽  
Kon-Ping Lin ◽  
Tzung-Chang Tsai ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Observational Study ◽  
Conversion Rate ◽  
Prognostic Significance ◽  
Risk Indicators ◽  
Clinical Event ◽  
First Episode ◽  
Conversion Rates ◽  
Demyelinating Lesions ◽  
Baseline Characteristics

AbstractImportanceCIS to MS conversion rates vary depending on population cohorts, initial manifestations, and durations of follow-up.ObjectiveTo investigate conversion rate of patients from CIS to MS and the prognostic significance of demographic and clinical variables in Taiwanese population.DesignNationwide, prospective, multi-centric, observational study from November 2008 to November 2014 with 4 years follow-up.SettingMulti-centre setting at 5 institutions in Taiwan.Participants152 patients having single clinical event potentially suggestive of MS in last 2 years were enrolled as consecutive sample. 33 patients were lost to follow-up and 16 patients did not complete the study.103 patients completed the study.Intervention(s) (for clinical trials) or Exposure(s) (for observational studies)Natural progression from first episode of CIS to MS or NMO was observed.Main Outcome(s) and Measure(s)Variables analysed were ‘proportion of patients converting to MS or NMO after first episode of CIS’, ‘duration between first episode of neurological event and diagnosis of MS’, ‘status of anti-AQP4 IgG’ and ‘length of longest contiguous spinal cord lesion in MS patients’. Association between baseline characteristics and progression to MS from CIS was analyzed using multiple logistic regression. Multivariate time dependent effect of baseline characteristics on progression to MS was plotted.Results14.5% patients with CIS converted to MS after 1.1 ± 1.0 years with greater predisposition (18.8%) in those having syndromes referable to the cerebral hemispheres. Conversion rate from ON to MS was 9.7%. 90.9% patients had benign disease course. 46.7% patients had abnormal MRIs at baseline, with 0.6±0.5 contrast enhanced lesions. ‘Below normal BMI’ and ‘MRI lesion load (≥ 4 lesions)’ were identified as risk indicators for the development of MS. Only 4.5% were positive for anti-AQP4 antibody in MS patients and amongst them, 80% were NMO patients as diagnosed by modern criteria.Conclusions and Relevance‘Below normal BMI’ and ‘number of demyelinating lesions (≥4)’ are significant predictors of conversion from CIS to MS. A low conversion rate to MS in Taiwanese CIS patients and majority of them having a benign course and minimal disability suggest the roles of geographic, genetic and ethnic factors.Trial RegistrationNon-trial observational study.

scholarly journals Simple and Efficient Prediction of Near Future State of Traffic Using Only Past Speed Information

2018 ◽  
Vol 30 (5) ◽  
pp. 589-599
Author(s):  
Fevzi Yasin Kababulut ◽  
Damla Kuntalp ◽  
Olcay Akay ◽  
Timur Düzenli
Keyword(s):  
Traffic Control ◽  
Traffic Congestion ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Urban Life ◽  
Prediction Errors ◽  
Control Center ◽  
Road Section ◽  
Efficient Prediction ◽  
Traffic Systems ◽  
Near Future

Intelligent traffic systems attempt to solve the problem of traffic congestion, which is one of the most important environmental and economic issues of urban life. In this study, we approach this problem via prediction of traffic status using past average traveler speed (ATS). Five different algorithms are proposed for predicting the traffic status. They are applied to real data provided by the Traffic Control Center of Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality. Algorithm 1 predicts future ATS on a highway section based on the past speed information obtained from the same road section. The other proposed algorithms, Algorithms 2 through 5, predict the traffic status as fluent, moderately congested, or congested, again using past traffic state information for the same road segment. Here, traffic states are assigned according to predetermined intervals of ATS values. In the proposed algorithms, ATS values belonging to past five consecutive 10-minute time intervals are used as input data. Performances of the proposed algorithms are evaluated in terms of root mean square error (RMSE), sample accuracy, balanced accuracy, and processing time. Although the  proposed algorithms are relatively simple and require only past speed values, they provide fairly reliable results with noticeably low prediction errors.

Evaluation of cerebral visual functions in low myopic adolescents

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 37-44
Author(s):  
Yun Liu ◽  
◽  
Li Yan ◽  
Hang Chu ◽  
Dian-Peng Wu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Zero Order ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Eye Position ◽  
Visual Functions ◽  
Fixation Stability ◽  
And Gender ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Normal Adolescents ◽  
Abnormal Results

AIM: To explore whether low myopia would affect cerebral visual functions by comparing perceptual eye position (PEP), fixation stability and stereoacuity tests between low myopic and normal adolescents. METHODS: Totally 120 adolescents matched in age and gender participated in our study. Subjects were divided into three groups according to their refractive states. The cerebral visual functions tested in our study included perceptual eye position (PEP), fixation stability and stereoacuity. Stereoacuity tests involved in our study could be categorized into two parts. The first part was classical stereo tests including Titmus and synoptophore stereo test. The second part was 3D random-dot test for zero-order stereoacuity (hereinafter as zero-order test) at different viewing distances (0.8 m and 1.5 m). RESULTS: The deviation of horizontal PEP was significantly larger in non-anisometropia when compared to control group. Both horizontal and vertical PEP bias pixels were significantly larger in anisometropia group. Both non-anisometropia group and anisometropia group had more trouble in holding their fixation stable. Moreover, anisometropia group had more abnormal results than other two groups. And in zero-order test at 1.5 m, both non-anisometropia and anisometropia had more abnormal results in stereoacuity than control group. The correlation between fixation stability and near stereoacuity (Titmus and zero-order stereoacuity at 0.8 m) was weak and positive. CONCLUSION: Low myopic adolescents still have certain defects in cerebral visual functions. Examinations used in our study are useful in assessing cerebral visual functions. They could provide better follow-up evaluation and solid ground for further specific treatments in treating defects of cerebral visual functions. So far, local retinal environment has been the focus of the development in myopia. Our results suggested that researchers might pay more attention on visual cortex in studying the mechanisms of myopia in the near future.

EUSOMA

2019 ◽  
pp. 35-39
Author(s):  
Lorenza Marotti ◽  
Luigi Cataliotti ◽  
Robert Mansel
Keyword(s):  
Breast Cancer ◽  
Clinical Skills ◽  
Primary Tumour ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Scientific Papers ◽  
Voluntary Certification ◽  
Cancer Specialists ◽  
Dedicated Team

Abstract: The European Society of Breast Cancer Specialists (EUSOMA) is the only European multidisciplinary society dedicated to breast cancer. EUSOMA has defined the requirements for a Breast Centre. Basic requirements are: at least 150 new breast cancer cases per year, provision of all services necessary from genetics and prevention, through diagnosis and treatment of primary tumour, follow-up, care of advanced disease, and palliation. The Breast Centre must have a dedicated team of specialists who regularly meet in the multidisciplinary meeting. EUSOMA also defined a set of Quality Indicators (QIs) to allow standardized auditing and quality assurance. EUSOMA developed a voluntary certification process to evaluate Breast Centre compliance with EUSOMA requirements and QIs. This process has now become an accredited scheme run by a dedicated organization (www.breastcentrescertification.com). The Breast Centre certification scheme is focused on real data, essential clinical skills, structure, and procedure, aiming at improving the quality of care. Breast Centres undergoing certification send data to the EUSOMA data warehouse. The EUSOMA data centre performs an analysis and issues a report showing the performances of the selected EUSOMA QIs. Thanks to the availability of these data, Certified Breast Centres under the umbrella of EUSOMA collectively publish scientific papers on selected topics.

scholarly journals Application of OCT in the Gastrointestinal Tract

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (15) ◽  
pp. 2991 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas S. Samel ◽  
Hiroshi Mashimo
Keyword(s):  
Gastrointestinal Tract ◽  
Field Evaluation ◽  
Wide Field ◽  
Gi Tract ◽  
Advanced Imaging ◽  
Future Directions ◽  
Future Therapy ◽  
Near Future ◽  
The U.S

Optical coherence tomography (OCT) is uniquely poised for advanced imaging in the gastrointestinal (GI) tract as it allows real-time, subsurface and wide-field evaluation at near-microscopic resolution, which may improve the current limitations or even obviate the need of superficial random biopsies in the surveillance of early neoplasias in the near future. OCT’s greatest impact so far in the GI tract has been in the study of the tubular esophagus owing to its accessibility, less bends and folds and allowance of balloon employment with optimal contact to aid circumferential imaging. Moreover, given the alarming rise in the incidence of Barrett’s esophagus and its progression to adenocarcinoma in the U.S., OCT has helped identify pathological features that may guide future therapy and follow-up strategy. This review will explore the current uses of OCT in the gastrointestinal tract and future directions, particularly with non-endoscopic office-based capsule OCT and the use of artificial intelligence to aid in diagnoses.

scholarly journals PELICAN: deeP architecturE for the LIght Curve ANalysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 627 ◽  
pp. A21 ◽  
Author(s):  
Johanna Pasquet ◽  
Jérôme Pasquet ◽  
Marc Chaumont ◽  
Dominique Fouchez
Keyword(s):  
Light Curve ◽  
Sampling Rate ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Curve Analysis ◽  
Irregular Sampling ◽  
Light Curves ◽  
Light Curve Analysis ◽  
Deep Architecture ◽  
Deep Fields

We developed a deeP architecturE for the LIght Curve ANalysis (PELICAN) for the characterization and the classification of supernovae light curves. It takes light curves as input, without any additional features. PELICAN can deal with the sparsity and the irregular sampling of light curves. It is designed to remove the problem of non-representativeness between the training and test databases coming from the limitations of the spectroscopic follow-up. We applied our methodology on different supernovae light curve databases. First, we tested PELICAN on the Supernova Photometric Classification Challenge for which we obtained the best performance ever achieved with a non-representative training database, by reaching an accuracy of 0.811. Then we tested PELICAN on simulated light curves of the LSST Deep Fields for which PELICAN is able to detect 87.4% of supernovae Ia with a precision higher than 98%, by considering a non-representative training database of 2k light curves. PELICAN can be trained on light curves of LSST Deep Fields to classify light curves of the LSST main survey, which have a lower sampling rate and are more noisy. In this scenario, it reaches an accuracy of 96.5% with a training database of 2k light curves of the Deep Fields. This constitutes a pivotal result as type Ia supernovae candidates from the main survey might then be used to increase the statistics without additional spectroscopic follow-up. Finally we tested PELICAN on real data from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. PELICAN reaches an accuracy of 86.8% with a training database composed of simulated data and a fraction of 10% of real data. The ability of PELICAN to deal with the different causes of non-representativeness between the training and test databases, and its robustness against survey properties and observational conditions, put it in the forefront of light curve classification tools for the LSST era.

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