scholarly journals Remaining Useful Life (RUL) Prediction of Equipment in Production Lines Using Artificial Neural Networks

Sensors ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 932
Author(s):  
Ziqiu Kang ◽  
Cagatay Catal ◽  
Bedir Tekinerdogan
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Learning Algorithm ◽  
Continuous Production ◽  
Case Study Research ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
Predictive Maintenance ◽  
Production Lines ◽  
Important Concern ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Useful Life

Predictive maintenance of production lines is important to early detect possible defects and thus identify and apply the required maintenance activities to avoid possible breakdowns. An important concern in predictive maintenance is the prediction of remaining useful life (RUL), which is an estimate of the number of remaining years that a component in a production line is estimated to be able to function in accordance with its intended purpose before warranting replacement. In this study, we propose a novel machine learning-based approach for automating the prediction of the failure of equipment in continuous production lines. The proposed model applies normalization and principle component analysis during the pre-processing stage, utilizes interpolation, uses grid search for parameter optimization, and is built with multilayer perceptron neural network (MLP) machine learning algorithm. We have evaluated the approach using a case study research to predict the RUL of engines on NASA turbo engine datasets. Experimental results demonstrate that the performance of our proposed model is effective in predicting the RUL of turbo engines and likewise substantially enhances predictive maintenance results.

scholarly journals Prognostic techniques for aeroengine health assessment and Remaining Useful Life estimation

2021 ◽  
Vol 312 ◽  
pp. 11017
Author(s):  
A. Caricato ◽  
A. Ficarella ◽  
L. Spada Chiodo
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Multilayer Perceptron ◽  
Learning Algorithms ◽  
Gaussian Process Regression ◽  
Kernel Functions ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Predictive Maintenance ◽  
Future System ◽  
Useful Life

Predictive maintenance is the latest frontier in the management and maintenance of many industrial assets, including aeroengines. Made possible by last decades advances in monitoring equipment and machine learning algorithms, it permits individual-based maintenance schedules, on the basis of performance monitoring and estimates resulting from the application of diagnostic and prognostic techniques, whether on ground or real time. Predictive maintenance results in operational cost reduction and asset usage optimization, if compared with traditional maintenance strategies, which instead may suffer from unanticipated failure or unnecessary maintenance and therefore higher operational costs. In the study, Remaining Useful Life (RUL) estimates will be carried out for different turbofan engines, based on historical individual and fleet data made available by the Prognostics Center of Excellence at NASA. The design of Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) algorithms requires at first an analysis of available data to identify which of them is effectively related to equipment degradation and hence could be useful in determining future system evolution and predicting failure. In particular, RUL prediction of test engines suffering from high pressure compressor fault with exponential degradation trend has been carried out with both regression and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). In turn, different regression models and neural network architectures have been compared, namely tree regression with different levels of tree depth, Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) with different kernel functions and Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) with one to three hidden layers and varying number of nodes. The objective is to demonstrate the capability of such machine learning algorithms to predict engine failure and thus their importance in supporting predictive maintenance planning, and to evaluate the quality of results in relation to the algorithm structure. Results show comparable performance in terms of Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of predicted with respect to actual RUL, in particular predictions obtained through recourse to multilayer perceptron reveal to be the most accurate, with a RMSE of 17.38 and a MAE of 12.50.

scholarly journals Solid-State Lithium Battery Cycle Life Prediction Using Machine Learning

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 4671
Author(s):  
Danpeng Cheng ◽  
Wuxin Sha ◽  
Linna Wang ◽  
Shun Tang ◽  
Aijun Ma ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Solid State ◽  
Life Prediction ◽  
Learning Algorithm ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
Cycle Life ◽  
Quantitative Prediction ◽  
Test Accuracy ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithm ◽  
Discharge Data

Battery lifetime prediction is a promising direction for the development of next-generation smart energy storage systems. However, complicated degradation mechanisms, different assembly processes, and various operation conditions of the batteries bring tremendous challenges to battery life prediction. In this work, charge/discharge data of 12 solid-state lithium polymer batteries were collected with cycle lives ranging from 71 to 213 cycles. The remaining useful life of these batteries was predicted by using a machine learning algorithm, called symbolic regression. After populations of breed, mutation, and evolution training, the test accuracy of the quantitative prediction of cycle life reached 87.9%. This study shows the great prospect of a data-driven machine learning algorithm in the prediction of solid-state battery lifetimes, and it provides a new approach for the batch classification, echelon utilization, and recycling of batteries.

scholarly journals A Hybrid Prognostics Deep Learning Model for Remaining Useful Life Prediction

Electronics ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 39
Author(s):  
Zhiyuan Xie ◽  
Shichang Du ◽  
Jun Lv ◽  
Yafei Deng ◽  
Shiyao Jia
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Learning Model ◽  
Recurrent Network ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
Learning Methods ◽  
Useful Life ◽  
Deep Learning Model

Remaining Useful Life (RUL) prediction is significant in indicating the health status of the sophisticated equipment, and it requires historical data because of its complexity. The number and complexity of such environmental parameters as vibration and temperature can cause non-linear states of data, making prediction tremendously difficult. Conventional machine learning models such as support vector machine (SVM), random forest, and back propagation neural network (BPNN), however, have limited capacity to predict accurately. In this paper, a two-phase deep-learning-model attention-convolutional forget-gate recurrent network (AM-ConvFGRNET) for RUL prediction is proposed. The first phase, forget-gate convolutional recurrent network (ConvFGRNET) is proposed based on a one-dimensional analog long short-term memory (LSTM), which removes all the gates except the forget gate and uses chrono-initialized biases. The second phase is the attention mechanism, which ensures the model to extract more specific features for generating an output, compensating the drawbacks of the FGRNET that it is a black box model and improving the interpretability. The performance and effectiveness of AM-ConvFGRNET for RUL prediction is validated by comparing it with other machine learning methods and deep learning methods on the Commercial Modular Aero-Propulsion System Simulation (C-MAPSS) dataset and a dataset of ball screw experiment.

scholarly journals Transfer Learning with Deep Recurrent Neural Networks for Remaining Useful Life Estimation

2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (12) ◽  
pp. 2416 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ansi Zhang ◽  
Honglei Wang ◽  
Shaobo Li ◽  
Yuxin Cui ◽  
Zhonghao Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Transfer Learning ◽  
Recurrent Neural Networks ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Learning Algorithm ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
Operating Conditions ◽  
Training Data ◽  
Good Prediction ◽  
Useful Life

Prognostics, such as remaining useful life (RUL) prediction, is a crucial task in condition-based maintenance. A major challenge in data-driven prognostics is the difficulty of obtaining a sufficient number of samples of failure progression. However, for traditional machine learning methods and deep neural networks, enough training data is a prerequisite to train good prediction models. In this work, we proposed a transfer learning algorithm based on Bi-directional Long Short-Term Memory (BLSTM) recurrent neural networks for RUL estimation, in which the models can be first trained on different but related datasets and then fine-tuned by the target dataset. Extensive experimental results show that transfer learning can in general improve the prediction models on the dataset with a small number of samples. There is one exception that when transferring from multi-type operating conditions to single operating conditions, transfer learning led to a worse result.

scholarly journals Remaining Useful Life Prediction for Rotating Machinery Based on Optimal Degradation Indicator

2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aisong Qin ◽  
Qinghua Zhang ◽  
Qin Hu ◽  
Guoxi Sun ◽  
Jun He ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Health Management ◽  
Rotating Machinery ◽  
Remaining Useful Life ◽  
Programming Algorithm ◽  
Wiener Model ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Degradation Modeling ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Useful Life ◽  
Degradation Indicator

Remaining useful life (RUL) prediction can provide early warnings of failure and has become a key component in the prognostics and health management of systems. Among the existing methods for RUL prediction, the Wiener-process-based method has attracted great attention owing to its favorable properties and flexibility in degradation modeling. However, shortcomings exist in methods of this type; for example, the degradation indicator and the first predicting time (FPT) are selected subjectively, which reduces the prediction accuracy. Toward this end, this paper proposes a new approach for predicting the RUL of rotating machinery based on an optimal degradation indictor. First, a genetic programming algorithm is proposed to construct an optimal degradation indicator using the concept of FPT. Then, a Wiener model based on the obtained optimal degradation indicator is proposed, in which the sensitivities of the dimensionless parameters are utilized to determine the FPT. Finally, the expectation of the predicted RUL is calculated based on the proposed model, and the estimated mean degradation path is explicitly derived. To demonstrate the validity of this model, several experiments on RUL prediction are conducted on rotating machinery. The experimental results indicate that the method can effectively improve the accuracy of RUL prediction.

Comparing a Machine Learning Predictive Model with Federal Transit Administration (FTA)’s Default Useful Life Benchmark to Predict Replacement Costs for Revenue Vehicles

2020 ◽  
Vol 2674 (2) ◽  
pp. 181-190
Author(s):  
Dilip Mistry ◽  
Jill Hough
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Service Life ◽  
Predictive Model ◽  
Learning Algorithm ◽  
The State ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithm ◽  
Useful Life ◽  
Transit Agencies ◽  
The U.S

A predictive model is developed that uses a machine learning algorithm to predict the service life of transit vehicles and calculates backlog and yearly replacement costs to achieve and maintain transit vehicles in a state of good repair. The model is applied to data from the State of Oklahoma. The vehicle service lives predicted by the machine learning predictive model (MLPM) are compared with the default useful life benchmark (ULB) of the U.S. Federal Transit Administration (FTA). The model shows that the service life predicted by the MLPM provides relatively more realistic predictions of replacement costs of revenue vehicles than the predictions generated using FTA’s default ULB. The MLPM will help Oklahoma’s transit agencies facilitate the state of good repair analysis of their transit vehicles and guide decision makers when investing in rehabilitation and replacement needs. The paper demonstrates that it is advantageous to use a MLPM to predict the service life of revenue vehicles in place of the FTA’s default ULB.

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