scholarly journals The Influence of the Calibration Interval on Simulating Non-Stationary Urban Growth Dynamic Using CA-Markov Model

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 468
Author(s):  
Rahim Aguejdad
Keyword(s):  
Markov Model ◽  
Urban Growth ◽  
Prediction Interval ◽  
Time Duration ◽  
Spatial Allocation ◽  
Markov Chain Method ◽  
Urban Growth Modeling ◽  
Path Dependent ◽  
Calibration Interval

The temporal non-stationarity of land use and cover change (LUCC) processes is one of the main sources of uncertainty that may influence the calibration and the validation of spatial path-dependent LUCC models. In relation to that, this research aims to investigate the influence of the temporal non-stationarity of land change on urban growth modeling accuracy based on an empirical approach that uses past LUCC. Accordingly, the urban development in Rennes Metropolitan (France) was simulated using fifteen past calibration intervals which are set from six training dates. The study used Idrisi’s Cellular Automata-Markov model (CA-Markov) which is an inductive pattern-based LUCC software package. The land demand for the simulation year was estimated using the Markov Chain method. Model validation was carried out by assessing the quantity of change, allocation, and spatial patterns accuracy. The quantity disagreement was analyzed by taking into consideration the temporal non-stationarity of change rate over the calibration and the prediction intervals, the model ability to reproduce the past amount of change in the future, and the time duration of the prediction interval. The results show that the calibration interval significantly influenced the amount and the spatial allocation of the estimated change. In addition to that, the spatial allocation of change using CA-Markov depended highly on the basis land cover image rather than the observed transition during the calibration period. Therefore, this study provides useful insights on the role of the training dates in the simulation of non-stationary LUCC.

scholarly journals A New Integrated Approach for Municipal Landfill Siting Based on Urban Physical Growth Prediction: A Case Study Mashhad Metropolis in Iran

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 949
Author(s):  
Salman Qureshi ◽  
Saman Nadizadeh Shorabeh ◽  
Najmeh Neysani Samany ◽  
Foad Minaei ◽  
Mehdi Homaee ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Urban Growth ◽  
Integrated Approach ◽  
Physical Growth ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Markov Chain Method ◽  
Physical Expansion ◽  
Hierarchy Process ◽  
The City

Due to irregular and uncontrolled expansion of cities in developing countries, currently operational landfill sites cannot be used in the long-term, as people will be living in proximity to these sites and be exposed to unhygienic circumstances. Hence, this study aims at proposing an integrated approach for determining suitable locations for landfills while considering their physical expansion. The proposed approach utilizes the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (FAHP) to weigh the sets of identified landfill location criteria. Furthermore, the weighted linear combination (WLC) approach was applied for the elicitation of the proper primary locations. Finally, the support vector machine (SVM) and cellular automation-based Markov chain method were used to predict urban growth. To demonstrate the applicability of the developed approach, it was applied to a case study, namely the city of Mashhad in Iran, where suitable sites for landfills were identified considering the urban growth in different geographical directions for this city by 2048. The proposed approach could be of use for policymakers, urban planners, and other decision-makers to minimize uncertainty arising from long-term resource allocation.

scholarly journals CA-Markov Analysis of Constrained Coastal Urban Growth Modeling: Hua Hin Seaside City, Thailand

2013 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 1480-1500 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kritsana Kityuttachai ◽  
Nitin Tripathi ◽  
Taravudh Tipdecho ◽  
Rajendra Shrestha
Keyword(s):  
Urban Growth ◽  
Growth Modeling ◽  
Markov Analysis ◽  
Urban Growth Modeling

scholarly journals Modeling of Urban Growth Using Cellular Automata and GIS Case of Benslimane in Morocco

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
BENCHELHA MOHAMED ◽  
Benzha Fatiha ◽  
Rhinane Hassan ◽  
BENCHELHA SAID ◽  
BENCHELHA TAOUFIK ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Cellular Automata ◽  
Urban Growth ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Confusion Matrix ◽  
Spatial Transformation ◽  
Urban Growth Modeling ◽  
Main Component Analysis ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Main Component

In this study, our goal was to research land-use change by combining spatio–temporal land use/land cover monitoring (LULC (1989–2019) and urban growth modeling (1999–2039) in Benslimane, Morocco, to determine the effect of urban growth on different groups based on cellular automata (CA) and geospatial methods. A further goal was to test the reliability of the AC algorithm for urban expansion modeling. To do this, four years of satellite data were used at the same time as population density, downtown distance, slope, and ground road distance. The LULC satellite reported a rise of 3.8 km2 (318% variation) during 1989–2019. Spatial transformation analysis reveals a good classification similarity ranging from 89% to 91% with the main component analysis (PCA) technique. The statistical accuracy between the satellite scale and the replicated built region of 2019 gave 97.23 %t of the confusion matrix overall accuracy, and the region under the receiver operational characteristics (ROC) curve to 0.94, suggesting the model's high accuracy. Although the constructed area remains low relative to the total area of the municipality's territory, the LULC project shows that the urban area will extend to 5,044 km2 in 2019, principally in the western and southwestern sections. In 2019–2039, urban development is expected to lead to a transformation of the other class (loss of 1,364 km2), followed by vegetation cover (loss of 0.345 km2). In spatial modeling and statistical calculations, the GDAL and NumPy Python 3.8 libraries were successful.

scholarly journals Role of Creative Industries in the Post-Socialist Urban Transformation

2014 ◽  
Vol 33 (2) ◽  
pp. 19-35 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tadeusz Stryjakiewicz ◽  
Michał Męczyński ◽  
Krzysztof Stachowiak
Keyword(s):  
Eastern Europe ◽  
Central And Eastern Europe ◽  
Creative Industries ◽  
Urban Transformation ◽  
The West ◽  
Local Networks ◽  
The Past ◽  
Path Dependent ◽  
Basic Features

Abstract Over the past two decades the cities in Central and Eastern Europe have witnessed a wide-ranging transformation in many aspects. The introduction of a market-oriented economy after half a century of socialism has brought about deep social, economic, cultural and political changes. The first stage of the changes, the 1990s, involved the patching up of structural holes left by the previous system. The post-socialist city had to face challenges of the future while carrying the ballast of the past. Rapid progress in catching up with the West transformed the city a great deal. Later on, the advent of the 21st century brought a new wave of development processes based, among other things, on creativity and innovation. Hence our contribution aims to explore the role of creativity and creative industries in the post-socialist urban transformation. The article consists of three basic parts. In the first we present the concept of a ‘creative post-socialist city’ and define the position of creative industries in it. We also indicate some similarities to and differences from the West European approaches to this issue. In the second part, examples from Central and Eastern Europe are used in an attempt to elucidate the concept of a ‘creative post-socialist city’ by identifying some basic features of creative actions /processes as well as a creative environment, both exogenous and endogenous. The former is embedded in different local networks, both formal (institutionalised) and informal, whereas the structure of the latter is strongly path-dependent. In the third part we critically discuss the role of local policies on the development of creative industries, pointing out some of their shortcomings and drawing up recommendations for future policy measures.

Persistent but adaptable – the path dependent development of German cost accounting

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Juergen Weber ◽  
Leona Wiegmann
Keyword(s):  
Cost Accounting ◽  
Accounting Systems ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Dependent Development ◽  
Existing Structures ◽  
Multiple Case ◽  
Multiple Case Studies ◽  
Path Dependent ◽  
Over Time

Purpose This paper aims to investigate how and why German cost accounting prevails and develops in German multinational organisations despite the various indications in the literature that it will converge towards an anglophone system over time. To analyse this, the authors draw on the ideas of professional practices (Jarzabkowski et al., 2016) and their path dependency (Schreyögg and Sydow, 2011) as a method theory. Design/methodology/approach The authors deploy an exploratory method using multiple case studies to determine similarities and differences between organisations concerning how cost accounting practices developed over time. They conducted interviews with cost accountants, group controllers and managers of German multinational organisations as well as experts from higher education institutions and consultancies. Findings This paper shows the path-dependent development of German cost accounting. It identifies self-reinforcing learning and complementary effects that seem to make it inefficient for organisations to deviate from the learned path as well as economic and normative pressures that affect the design of cost accounting systems. Originality/value By considering German cost accounting a path-dependent professional practice, this paper illustrates how and why the core of German cost accounting prevails, although organisations make adjustments within the existing structures to respond to the pressures they face. This paper hereby highlights the role of cost accountants in defining (and consequently bringing about or preventing changes to) the design of cost accounting systems.

Urban Growth Machines—But at What Scale?

2019 ◽  
pp. 233-255
Author(s):  
Neil Brenner
Keyword(s):  
Urban Growth ◽  
Urban Governance ◽  
Analytical Tool ◽  
Territorial Development ◽  
Growth Machine ◽  
Institutional Frameworks ◽  
Historical Investigation ◽  
Growth Machines ◽  
The City

Theories of the urban growth machine have long been a central analytical tool for contemporary research on urban governance. But in what sense are growth machines, in fact, “urban”? To what degree must “the city” serve as the spatial locus for growth machine strategies? To address such questions, this chapter critically evaluates the influential work of urban sociologists John Logan and Harvey Molotch on US growth machine dynamics. In contrast to an influential line of critique that reproaches these authors for their putative methodological localism, it is argued that their framework is, in fact, explicitly attuned to the role of interscalar politico-institutional relays in the construction of urban growth machines. These considerations lead to a dynamically multiscalar reading of the national institutional frameworks that have facilitated the formation of growth machines at the urban scale during the course of US territorial development. This analysis has broad methodological implications for the comparative-historical investigation of urban governance.

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