scholarly journals Statistical Prediction of Typhoon-Induced Rainfall over China Using Historical Rainfall, Tracks, and Intensity of Typhoon in the Western North Pacific

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (24) ◽  
pp. 4133
Author(s):  
Jong-Suk Kim ◽  
Anxiang Chen ◽  
Junghwan Lee ◽  
Il-Ju Moon ◽  
Young-Il Moon
Keyword(s):  
North Pacific ◽  
Disaster Preparedness ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Statistical Prediction ◽  
Ensemble Averaging ◽  
Fuzzy C Means Clustering ◽  
Accumulated Rainfall ◽  
North Pacific Region ◽  
Strong Winds

Typhoons or mature tropical cyclones (TCs) can affect inland areas of up to hundreds of kilometers with heavy rains and strong winds, along with landslides causing numerous casualties and property damage due to concentrated precipitation over short time periods. To reduce these damages, it is necessary to accurately predict the rainfall induced by TCs in the western North Pacific Region. However, despite dramatic advances in observation and numerical modeling, the accuracy of prediction of typhoon-induced rainfall and spatial distribution remains limited. The present study offers a statistical approach to predicting the accumulated rainfall associated with typhoons based on a historical storm track and intensity data along with observed rainfall data for 55 typhoons affecting the southeastern coastal areas of China from 1961 to 2017. This approach is shown to provide an average root mean square error of 51.2 mm across 75 meteorological stations in the southeast coastal area of China (ranging from 15.8 to 87.3 mm). Moreover, the error is less than 70 mm for most stations, and significantly lower in the three verification cases, thus demonstrating the feasibility of this approach. Furthermore, the use of fuzzy C-means clustering, ensemble averaging, and corrections to typhoon intensities, can provide more accurate rainfall predictions from the method applied herein, thus allowing for improvements to disaster preparedness and emergency response.

Possibility of recent changes in vertical distribution and size composition of chlorophyll-a in the western North Pacific region

2009 ◽  
Vol 65 (2) ◽  
pp. 179-186 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hiroshi Ishida ◽  
Yutaka W. Watanabe ◽  
Joji Ishizaka ◽  
Toshiya Nakano ◽  
Naoki Nagai ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Vertical Distribution ◽  
Chlorophyll A ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Size Composition ◽  
Pacific Region ◽  
North Pacific Region

scholarly journals Sub-seasonal variations of the tropical storm track in the western north Pacific

MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 48 (2) ◽  
pp. 189-194
Author(s):  
BIN WANG ◽  
LIGUANG WU
Keyword(s):  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Seasonal Variations ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Time Scale ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Tropical Storm ◽  
Climatological Data ◽  
Seasonal Oscillation ◽  
The Western Pacific

 With 20-year (1975-94) climatological data, we demonstrate that the tropical storm track over the western North Pacific (0° - 40°N, 100 - 180°E) exhibits prominent sub-seasonal variations on a time scale of about 40 days from May to November. The storm track variability is regulated by the conspicuous Climatological Intra Seasonal Oscillation (CISO) in the strength of the western North Pacific summer monsoon and the associated position of the western Pacific Sub-tropical High. The CISO cycle regulates the number of tropical storm formation during the Pre-Onset and Withdraw Cycles but not during the Onset and Peak Monsoon Cycles (from mid-June to mid-September).    

scholarly journals Effects of storms on primary productivity and air-sea CO<sub>2</sub> exchange in the subarctic western North Pacific: a modeling study

2008 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 65-81 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Fujii ◽  
Y. Yamanaka
Keyword(s):  
Primary Production ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Marine Ecosystem ◽  
Ecosystem Model ◽  
Light Limitation ◽  
Co2 Uptake ◽  
Co2 Efflux ◽  
Marine Ecosystem Model ◽  
Strong Winds

Abstract. Biogeochemical responses of the open ocean to storms and their feedback to climate are still poorly understood. Using a marine ecosystem model, we examine biogeochemical responses to the storms in the subarctic western North Pacific. The storms in summer through early autumn enhance primary production by wind-induced nutrient injections into the surface waters while the storms in the other seasons reduce primary production by intensifying light limitation on the phytoplankton growth due to vertical dilution of the phytoplankton. The two compensating effects diminish the storm-induced annual change of primary production to only 1%. On the contrary, the storms enhance the annual sea-to-air CO2 efflux by no less than 34%, resulting from storm-induced strong winds. Our results suggest that previous studies using climatological wind and CO2 data probably underestimated the sea-to-air CO2 efflux during storms in the subarctic western North Pacific, and therefore, that continuous observations are required to reduce uncertainties in the global oceanic CO2 uptake.

scholarly journals The storm-track suppression over the western North Pacific from a cyclone life-cycle perspective

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 55-69
Author(s):  
Sebastian Schemm ◽  
Heini Wernli ◽  
Hanin Binder
Keyword(s):  
Life Cycle ◽  
East China Sea ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
East China ◽  
The East China Sea ◽  
China Sea ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Pacific

Abstract. Surface cyclones that feed the western part of the North Pacific storm track and experience a midwinter suppression originate from three regions: the East China Sea (∼30∘ N), the Kuroshio extension (∼35∘ N), and downstream of Kamchatka (∼53∘ N). In midwinter, in terms of cyclone numbers, Kuroshio (45 %) and Kamchatka (40 %) cyclones dominate in the region where eddy kinetic energy is suppressed, while the relevance of East China Sea cyclones increases from winter (15 %) to spring (20 %). The equatorward movement of the baroclinicity and the associated upper-level jet toward midwinter influence cyclones from the three genesis regions in different ways. In January, Kamchatka cyclones are less numerous and less intense, and their lifetime shortens, broadly consistent with the reduced baroclinicity in which they grow. The opposite is found for East China Sea cyclones, which in winter live longer, are more intense, and experience more frequently explosive deepening. The fraction of explosive East China Sea cyclones is particularly high in January when they benefit from the increased baroclinicity in their environment. Again, a different and more complex behavior is found for Kuroshio cyclones. In midwinter, their number increases, but their lifetime decreases; on average they reach higher intensity in terms of minimum sea level pressure, but the fraction of explosively deepening cyclones decreases and the latitude where maximum growth occurs shifts equatorward. Therefore, the life cycle of Kuroshio cyclones seems to be accelerated in midwinter with a stronger and earlier but also shorter deepening phase followed by an earlier decay. Once they reach the latitude where eddy kinetic energy is suppressed in midwinter, their baroclinic conversion efficiency is strongly reduced. Together, this detailed cyclone life-cycle analysis reveals that the North Pacific storm-track suppression in midwinter is related to fewer and weaker Kamchatka cyclones and to more equatorward intensifying and then more rapidly decaying Kuroshio cyclones. The less numerous cyclone branch from the East China Sea partially opposes the midwinter suppression. The cyclones passing through the suppressed region over the western North Pacific do not propagate far downstream and decay in the central North Pacific. The behavior of cyclones in the eastern North Pacific requires further analysis.

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