scholarly journals Backward Adaptive Brightness Temperature Threshold Technique (BAB3T): A Methodology to Determine Extreme Convective Initiation Regions Using Satellite Infrared Imagery

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 337
Author(s):  
Maite Cancelada ◽  
Paola Salio ◽  
Daniel Vila ◽  
Stephen W. Nesbitt ◽  
Luciano Vidal
Keyword(s):  
Brightness Temperature ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Temperature Threshold ◽  
Lightning Flash ◽  
Convective Initiation ◽  
Convective Storms ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Diurnal Cycles ◽  
Backward Tracking

Thunderstorms in southeastern South America (SESA) stand out in satellite observations as being among the strongest on Earth in terms of satellite-based convective proxies, such as lightning flash rate per storm, the prevalence for extremely tall, wide convective cores and broad stratiform regions. Accurately quantifying when and where strong convection is initiated presents great interest in operational forecasting and convective system process studies due to the relationship between convective storms and severe weather phenomena. This paper generates a novel methodology to determine convective initiation (CI) signatures associated with extreme convective systems, including extreme events. Based on the well-established area-overlapping technique, an adaptive brightness temperature threshold for identification and backward tracking with infrared data is introduced in order to better identify areas of deep convection associated with and embedded within larger cloud clusters. This is particularly important over SESA because ground-based weather radar observations are currently limited to particular areas. Extreme rain precipitation features (ERPFs) from Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission are examined to quantify the full satellite-observed life cycle of extreme convective events, although this technique allows examination of other intense convection proxies such as the identification of overshooting tops. CI annual and diurnal cycles are analyzed and distinctive behaviors are observed for different regions over SESA. It is found that near principal mountain barriers, a bimodal diurnal CI distribution is observed denoting the existence of multiple CI triggers, while convective initiation over flat terrain has a maximum frequency in the afternoon.

scholarly journals Deep Convective Organization, Moisture Vertical Structure, and Convective Transition Using Deep-Inflow Mixing

2019 ◽  
Vol 76 (4) ◽  
pp. 965-987 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kathleen A. Schiro ◽  
J. David Neelin
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Diurnal Cycles ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Strong Relation ◽  
Environmental Air ◽  
Open Question ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Convective Organization

Abstract It is an open question whether an integrated measure of buoyancy can yield a strong relation to precipitation across tropical land and ocean, across the seasonal and diurnal cycles, and for varying degrees of convective organization. Building on previous work, entraining plume buoyancy calculations reveal that differences in convective onset as a function of column water vapor (CWV) over land and ocean, as well as seasonally and diurnally over land, are largely due to variability in the contribution of lower-tropospheric humidity to the total column moisture. Over land, the relationship between deep convection and lower-free-tropospheric moisture is robust across all seasons and times of day, whereas the relation to boundary layer moisture is robust for the daytime only. Using S-band radar, these transition statistics are examined separately for mesoscale and smaller-scale convection. The probability of observing mesoscale convective systems sharply increases as a function of lower-free-tropospheric humidity. The consistency of this with buoyancy-based parameterization is examined for several mixing formulations. Mixing corresponding to deep inflow of environmental air into a plume that grows with height, which incorporates nearly equal weighting of boundary layer and free-tropospheric air, yields buoyancies consistent with the observed onset of deep convection across the seasonal and diurnal cycles in the Amazon. Furthermore, it provides relationships that are as strong or stronger for mesoscale-organized convection as for smaller-scale convection.

scholarly journals Characteristics of Mesoscale Convective Systems over China and Its Vicinity Using Geostationary Satellite FY2

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (12) ◽  
pp. 4890-4907 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiangrong Yang ◽  
Jianfang Fei ◽  
Xiaogang Huang ◽  
Xiaoping Cheng ◽  
Leila M. V. Carvalho ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Warm Season ◽  
The United States ◽  
Geostationary Satellite ◽  
Mesoscale Convective Systems ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Diurnal Cycles ◽  
Mesoscale Convective ◽  
Positive Correlations ◽  
Monthly Variations

Abstract This study investigates mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) over China and its vicinity during the boreal warm season (May–August) from 2005 to 2012 based on data from the geostationary satellite Fengyun 2 (FY2) series. The authors classified and analyzed the quasi-circular and elongated MCSs on both large and small scales, including mesoscale convective complexes (MCCs), persistent elongated convective systems (PECSs), meso-β circular convective systems (MβCCSs), meso-β elongated convective system (MβECSs), and two additional types named small meso-β circular convective systems (SMβCCSs) and small meso-β elongated convective systems (SMβECSs). Results show that nearly 80% of the 8696 MCSs identified in this study fall into the elongated categories. Overall, MCSs occur mainly at three zonal bands with average latitudes around 20°, 30°, and 50°N. The frequency of MCSs occurrences is maximized at the zonal band around 20°N and decreases with increase in latitude. During the eight warm seasons, the period of peak systems occurrences is in July, followed decreasingly by June, August, and May. Meanwhile, from May to August three kinds of monthly variations are observed, which are clear northward migration, rapid increase, and persistent high frequency of MCS occurrences. Compared to MCSs in the United States, the four types of MCSs (MCCs, PECSs, MβCCSs, and MβECSs) are relatively smaller both in size and eccentricity but exhibit nearly equal life spans. Moreover, MCSs in both countries share similar positive correlations between their duration and maximum extent. Additionally, the diurnal cycles of MCSs in both countries are similar (local time) regarding the three stages of initiation, maturation, and termination.

scholarly journals Cloud-scale modelling of the impact of deep convection on the fate of oceanic bromoform in the troposphere: a case study over the west coast of Borneo

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul D. Hamer ◽  
Virginie Marécal ◽  
Ryan Hossaini ◽  
Michel Pirre ◽  
Gisèle Krysztofiak ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
West Coast ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Convective System ◽  
The West ◽  
Upper Troposphere ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Mixing Ratios ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Coastal oceans emit bromoform (CHBr3) that can be transported rapidly to the upper troposphere by deep convection. In the troposphere, the spatial and vertical distribution of CHBr3 and its product gases (PGs) depend on emissions, chemical processing, transport by large scale flow, convection, and associated washout. This paper presents a modelling study on the fate of CHBr3 and its PGs in the troposphere. A case study at cloud scale was conducted along the west coast of Borneo, when several deep convective systems triggered in the afternoon and early evening of November 19th 2011. These systems were sampled by the Falcon aircraft during the field campaign of the SHIVA project. We analyse these systems using a simulation with the cloud-resolving meteorological model C-CATT-BRAMS at 2 × 2 km resolution that describes transport, photochemistry, and washout of CHBr3. We find that simulated CHBr3 mixing ratios and the observed values in the boundary layer and the outflow of the convective systems agree. However, the model underestimates the background CHBr3 mixing ratios in the upper troposphere, which suggests a missing source. An analysis of the simulated chemical speciation of bromine within and around each simulated convective system during the mature convective stage reveals that > 85 % of the bromine derived from CHBr3 and its PGs is transported vertically to the point of convective detrainment in the form of CHBr3 and that the remaining small fraction is in the form of organic PGs, principally insoluble brominated carbonyls produced from the photo-oxidation of CHBr3. The model simulates that within the boundary layer and free troposphere, the inorganic PGs are only present in soluble forms, i.e., HBr, HOBr, and BrONO2, and consequently, within the convective clouds, the inorganic PGs are almost entirely removed by wet scavenging. For the conditions of the simulated case study Br2 plays no significant role in the vertical transport of bromine. This likely results from the small simulated quantities of inorganic bromine involved, the presence of HBr in large excess compared to HOBr and the less soluble BrO, and the relatively quick removal of soluble compounds within the convective column. This prevalence of HBr is a result of the wider simulated regional atmospheric composition whereby background tropospheric ozone levels are exceptionally low.

scholarly journals Microphysical Characteristics of Overshooting Convection from Polarimetric Radar Observations

2015 ◽  
Vol 72 (2) ◽  
pp. 870-891 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cameron R. Homeyer ◽  
Matthew R. Kumjian
Keyword(s):  
Deep Convection ◽  
Composite Analysis ◽  
Polarimetric Radar ◽  
Horizontal Polarization ◽  
Upper Troposphere ◽  
Convective Storms ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Extratropical Tropopause ◽  
Differential Reflectivity ◽  
Frequent Presence

Abstract The authors present observations of the microphysical characteristics of deep convection that overshoots the altitude of the extratropical tropopause from analysis of the polarimetric radar variables of radar reflectivity factor at horizontal polarization ZH, differential reflectivity ZDR, and specific differential phase KDP. Identified overshooting convective storms are separated by their organization and intensity into three classifications: organized convection, discrete ordinary convection, and discrete supercell convection. Composite analysis of identified storms for each classification reveals microphysical features similar to those found in previous studies of deep convection, with deep columns of highly positive ZDR and KDP representing lofting of liquid hydrometeors within the convective updraft and above the melting level. In addition, organized and discrete supercell classifications show distinct near-zero ZDR minima aligned horizontally with and at altitudes higher than the updraft column features, likely indicative of the frequent presence of large hail in each case. Composites for organized convective systems show a similar ZDR minimum throughout the portion of the convective core that is overshooting the tropopause, corresponding to ZH in the range of 15–30 dBZ and negative KDP observations, in agreement with the scattering properties of small hail and/or lump or conical graupel. Additional analyses of the evolution of overshooting storms reveals that the ZDR minima indicative of hail in the middle and upper troposphere and graupel in the overshooting top are associated with the mature and decaying stages of overshooting, respectively, supporting their inferred contributions to the observed polarimetric fields.

scholarly journals An Observational Study of the Effects of Dry Air Produced in Dissipating Convective Storms on the Predictability of Severe Weather

2015 ◽  
Vol 30 (1) ◽  
pp. 79-114 ◽  
Author(s):  
Howard B. Bluestein ◽  
Jeffrey C. Snyder
Keyword(s):  
Mesoscale Convective System ◽  
Cloud Microphysics ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Convective Initiation ◽  
Convective Storms ◽  
Dry Air ◽  
The North ◽  
High Winds

Abstract This paper documents features that led to major forecast errors on the 12–24-h time scale in the nature and location of severe weather in the southern plains on 30 May 2012. Evidence is presented that the forecast errors were the result of 1) dry air that originated in a region of dissipating, elevated convective storms, and which was advected in a narrow tongue into western Oklahoma, inhibiting convective initiation; 2) the development of a cyclone along the dryline in western Texas, to the east of which several supercells formed; 3) the upscale development of the supercells into a mesoscale convective system (MCS) at nightfall; and 4) the dissipation of an MCS that had formed along a cold front in southwestern Kansas and was propagating into northwestern Oklahoma, as it encountered dry, subsiding air underneath the stratiform precipitation region of the rear portion of the MCS farther south. There was a meridionally oriented swath of high winds in clear air, in between the two MCSs. This swath of high winds may have been associated with a bore triggered at night by the MCSs approaching from the north, as the MCS collapsed, producing a gust front that propagated through stable, low-level air. This case study illustrates how the predictability of severe weather in a region can be extremely sensitive to the details of where nearby convective storms form and how they evolve. It also highlights the likely importance of the accurate representation of cloud microphysics and dynamics in numerical forecast models on predictability.

scholarly journals Preliminary signs of the initiation of deep convection by GNSS

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 20351-20382
Author(s):  
H. Brenot ◽  
J. Neméghaire ◽  
L. Delobbe ◽  
N. Clerbaux ◽  
M. Van Roozendael
Keyword(s):  
Deep Convection ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Infrared Radiance ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Convective Cells

Abstract. This study reports on the exploitation of GNSS for weather forecasts, especially for nowcasting. We focus on GPS observations (post-processing with a time resolution of 15 min) and try to establish typical configurations of the humidity field which characterise convective systems and particularly which supply forerunners of their initiation associated with deep convection. We show the critical role of GNSS horizontal gradients of humidity to detect small scale structures of the troposphere (i.e. convective cells), and then we present our strategy to obtain typical water vapour configurations by GNSS, called "H2O alert". These alerts are based on a dry/wet contrast taking place during a 30 min window before initiation of a convective system. GNSS observations have been assessed for the rainfall event of the 28–29 June 2005 using data from the Belgian dense network (baseline from 5 to 30 km). To validate our GNSS H2O alert, we use the detection of precipitation by C-band weather radar and thermal infrared radiance of the 10.8-μm channel [Ch09] of SEVIRI instrument on METEOSAT Second Generation. Our H2O alert obtains a score of about 80%.

Mechanisms for Quasi-Stationary Behavior in Simulated Heavy-Rain-Producing Convective Systems

2009 ◽  
Vol 66 (6) ◽  
pp. 1543-1568 ◽  
Author(s):  
Russ S. Schumacher
Keyword(s):  
Deep Convection ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Vertical Wind ◽  
Cold Pool ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Moist Convection ◽  
Initial State ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Deep Moist Convection

Abstract In this study, idealized numerical simulations are used to identify the processes responsible for initiating, organizing, and maintaining quasi-stationary convective systems that produce locally extreme rainfall amounts. Of particular interest are those convective systems that have been observed to occur near mesoscale convective vortices (MCVs) and other midlevel circulations. To simulate the lifting associated with such circulations, a low-level momentum forcing is applied to an initial state that is representative of observed extreme rain events. The initial vertical wind profile includes a sharp reversal of the vertical wind shear with height, indicative of observed low-level jets. Deep moist convection initiates within the region of mesoscale lifting, and the resulting convective system replicates many of the features of observed systems. The low-level thermodynamic environment is nearly saturated, which is not conducive to the production of a strong surface cold pool; yet the convection quickly organizes into a back-building line. It is shown that a nearly stationary convectively generated low-level gravity wave is responsible for the linear organization, which continues for several hours. New convective cells repeatedly form on the southwest end of the line and move to the northeast, resulting in large local rainfall amounts. In the later stages of the simulated convective system, a cold pool does develop, but its interaction with the strong reverse shear at low levels is not optimized for the maintenance of deep convection along its edge. A series of sensitivity experiments shows some of the effects of hydrometeor evaporation and melting, planetary rotation, and the imposed mesoscale forcing.

Characteristics of Summer Convective Systems Initiated over the Tibetan Plateau. Part I: Origin, Track, Development, and Precipitation

2008 ◽  
Vol 47 (10) ◽  
pp. 2679-2695 ◽  
Author(s):  
Li Yaodong ◽  
Wang Yun ◽  
Song Yang ◽  
Hu Liang ◽  
Gao Shouting ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Life Cycle ◽  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission ◽  
Convective System ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Eastern Area ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Late Night ◽  
Basic Characteristics

Abstract Summer convective systems (CSs) initiated over the Tibetan Plateau identified by the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) deep convection database and associated Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation for 1998–2001 have been analyzed for their basic characteristics in terms of initiation, distribution, trajectory, development, life cycle, convective intensity, and precipitation. Summer convective systems have a dominant center over the Hengduan Mountain and a secondary center over the Yaluzangbu River Valley. Precipitation associated with these CSs contributes more than 60% of total precipitation over the central-eastern area of the Tibetan Plateau and 30%–40% over the adjacent region to its southeast. The average CS life cycle is about 36 h; 85% of CSs disappear within 60 h of their initiation. About 50% of CSs do not move out of the Tibetan region, with the remainder split into eastward- and southward-moving components. These CSs moving out the Tibetan Plateau are generally larger, have longer life spans, and produce more rainfall than those staying inside the region. Convective system occurrences and associated rainfall present robust diurnal variations. The midafternoon maximum of CS initiation and associated rainfall over the plateau is mainly induced by solar heating linked to the unique Tibetan geography. The delayed afternoon–late night peak of rainfall from CSs propagating out of this region is a combined outcome of multiple mechanisms working together. Results suggest that interactions of summer Tibetan CSs with the orientation of the unique Tibetan geography and the surrounding atmospheric circulations are important for the development, intensification, propagation, and life span of these CSs.

scholarly journals Wave Disturbances and Their Role in the Maintenance, Structure, and Evolution of a Mesoscale Convection System

2019 ◽  
Vol 77 (1) ◽  
pp. 51-77 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shushi Zhang ◽  
David B. Parsons ◽  
Yuan Wang
Keyword(s):  
Great Plains ◽  
Wave Energy ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Inversion Layer ◽  
Mesoscale Convective System ◽  
Vertical Shear ◽  
Cold Pool ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Convective Initiation ◽  
Mesoscale Convective

Abstract This study investigates a nocturnal mesoscale convective system (MCS) observed during the Plains Elevated Convection At Night (PECAN) field campaign. A series of wavelike features were observed ahead of this MCS with extensive convective initiation (CI) taking place in the wake of one of these disturbances. Simulations with the WRF-ARW Model were utilized to understand the dynamics of these disturbances and their impact on the MCS. In these simulations, an “elevated bore” formed within an inversion layer aloft in response to the layer being lifted by air flowing up and over the cold pool. As the bore propagated ahead of the MCS, the lifting created an environment more conducive to deep convection allowing the MCS to discretely propagate due to CI in the bore’s wake. The Scorer parameter was somewhat favorable for trapping of this wave energy, although aspects of the environment evolved to be consistent with the expectations for an n = 2 mode deep tropospheric gravity wave. A bore within an inversion layer aloft is reminiscent of disturbances predicted by two-layer hydraulic theory, contrasting with recent studies that suggest bores are frequently initiated by the interaction between the flow within stable nocturnal boundary layer and convectively generated cold pools. Idealized simulations that expand upon this two-layer approach with orography and a well-mixed layer below the inversion suggest that elevated bores provide a possible mechanism for daytime squall lines to remove the capping inversion often found over the Great Plains, particularly in synoptically disturbed environments where vertical shear could create a favorable trapping of wave energy.

An Analysis of the 3 May 2020 Low-Predictability Derecho Using a Convection-Allowing MPAS Ensemble

2022 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Mesoscale Convective System ◽  
Convective System ◽  
Convective Initiation ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
South Central ◽  
Low Levels ◽  
Middle Tennessee ◽  
Thermodynamic Instability

Abstract This study analyzes the low short-range predictability of the 3 May 2020 derecho using a 40-member convection-allowing Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) ensemble. Elevated storms formed in south-central Kansas late at night and evolved into a progressive mesoscale convective system (MCS) during the morning while moving across southern Missouri and northern Arkansas, and affected western and middle Tennessee and southern Kentucky in the afternoon. The convective initiation (CI) in south-central Kansas, the organization of a dominant bow echo MCS and the MCS maintenance over Tennessee were identified as the three main predictability issues. These issues were explored using three MPAS ensemble members, observations and the Rapid Refresh analyses. The MPAS members were classified as successful or unsuccessful with regard to each predictability issue. CI in south-central Kansas was sensitive to the temperature and dewpoint profiles in low levels, which were associated with greater elevated thermodynamic instability and lower level of free convection in the successful member. The subsequent organization of a dominant bowing MCS was well predicted by the member that had more widespread convection in the early stages and no detrimental interaction with other simulated convective systems. Lastly, the inability of MPAS ensemble members to predict the MCS maintenance over western and middle Tennessee was linked to a dry bias in low levels and much lower thermodynamic instability ahead of the MCS compared to observations. This case demonstrates the challenges in operational forecasting of warm-season derecho-producing progressive MCSs, particularly when ensemble numerical weather prediction guidance solutions differ considerably.

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