scholarly journals Simulating Land Cover Change Impacts on Groundwater Recharge under Selected Climate Projections, Maui, Hawaiʻi

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (24) ◽  
pp. 3048
Author(s):  
Laura Brewington ◽  
Victoria Keener ◽  
Alan Mair
Keyword(s):  
Land Cover ◽  
Groundwater Recharge ◽  
Land Cover Change ◽  
Hydrological Modeling ◽  
Planning Process ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Scenario Planning ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Modeling Framework

This project developed an integrated land cover/hydrological modeling framework using remote sensing and geographic information systems (GIS) data, stakeholder input, climate information and projections, and empirical data to estimate future groundwater recharge on the Island of Maui, Hawaiʻi, USA. End-of-century mean annual groundwater recharge was estimated under four future land cover scenarios: Future 1 (conservation-focused), Future 2 (status-quo), Future 3 (development-focused), and Future 4 (balanced conservation and development), and two downscaled climate projections: a coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP) phase 5 (CMIP5) representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 “dry climate” future and a CMIP3 A1B “wet climate” future. Results were compared to recharge estimated using the 2017 baseline land cover to understand how changing land management and climate could influence groundwater recharge. Estimated recharge increased island-wide under all future land cover and climate combinations and was dominated by specific land cover transitions. For the dry future climate, recharge for land cover Futures 1 to 4 increased by 12%, 0.7%, 0.01%, and 11% relative to 2017 land cover conditions, respectively. Corresponding increases under the wet future climate were 10%, 0.9%, 0.6%, and 9.3%. Conversion from fallow/grassland to diversified agriculture increased irrigation, and therefore recharge. Above the cloud zone (610 m), conversion from grassland to native or alien forest led to increased fog interception, which increased recharge. The greatest changes to recharge occurred in Futures 1 and 4 in areas where irrigation increased, and where forest expanded within the cloud zone. Furthermore, new future urban expansion is currently slated for coastal areas that are already water-stressed and had low recharge projections. This study demonstrated that a spatially-explicit scenario planning process and modeling framework can communicate the possible consequences and tradeoffs of land cover change under a changing climate, and the outputs from this study serve as relevant tools for landscape-level management and interventions.

Historical and Future Land-Cover Change in a Municipality of Ghana

2011 ◽  
Vol 15 (9) ◽  
pp. 1-26 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emmanuel M. Attua ◽  
Joshua B. Fisher
Keyword(s):  
Land Cover ◽  
Land Cover Change ◽  
Land Tenure ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Poverty Reduction ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Land Cover Changes ◽  
Natural Ecosystems ◽  
Land Administration

Abstract Urban land-cover change is increasing dramatically in most developing nations. In Africa and in the New Juaben municipality of Ghana in particular, political stability and active socioeconomic progress has pushed the urban frontier into the countryside at the expense of the natural ecosystems at ever-increasing rates. Using Landsat satellite imagery from 1985 to 2003, the study found that the urban core expanded by 10% and the peri-urban areas expanded by 25% over the period. Projecting forward to 2015, it is expected that urban infrastructure will constitute 70% of the total land area in the municipality. Giving way to urban expansion were losses in open woodlands (19%), tree fallow (9%), croplands (4%), and grass fallow (3%), with further declines expected for 2015. Major drivers of land-cover changes are attributed to demographic changes and past microeconomic policies, particularly the Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP); the Economic Recovery Programme (ERP); and, more recently, the Ghana Poverty Reduction Strategy (GPRS). Pluralistic land administration, complications in the land tenure systems, institutional inefficiencies, and lack of capacity in land administration were also key drivers of land-cover changes in the New Juaben municipality. Policy recommendations are presented to address the associated challenges.

scholarly journals Separate and Combined Impacts of Land Cover and Climate Changes on Hydrological Responses of Dhidhessa River Basin, Ethiopia

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gizachew Kabite ◽  
Misgana Muleta ◽  
Berhan Gessesse
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Groundwater Recharge ◽  
Land Cover Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Surface Runoff ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Negative Impacts ◽  
Hydrologic Responses ◽  
Soil And Water

Land cover and climate changes greatly influence hydrologic responses of a basin. However, the response vary from basin to basin depending on the nature and severity of the changes and basin characteristics. Moreover, the combined impacts of the changes affect hydrologic responses of a basin in an offsetting or synergistic manner. This study quantified the separate and combined impacts, and the relative contributions of land cover and climate changes on multiple hydrological regimes (i.e., surface runoff, streamflow, groundwater recharge evapotranspiration) for the Dhidhessa Subbasin. Land cover and climate change data were obtained from a recent study completed for the basin. Calibrated Soil and Water Analysis Tool (SWAT) was used to quantify the impacts. The result showed that SWAT model performed well for the Dhidhessa Subbasin in predicting the water balance components. Substantial land cover change as well as an increasing temperature and rainfall trends were reported in the river basin during the past three decades. In response to these changes, surface runoff, streamflow and actual evapotranspiration (AET) increased while groundwater recharge declined. Surface runoff was more sensitive to land cover than to climate changes whereas streamflow and AET were more sensitive to climate change than to land cover change. The combined impacts played offsetting effect on groundwater recharge and AET while inconsistent effects within study periods for other hydrologic responses. Overall, the predicted hydrologic responses will have negative impacts on agricultural production and water resources availability. Therefore, the implementation of integrated watershed management strategies such as soil and water conservation and afforestation could reverse the negative impacts.

scholarly journals Land Cover Change in the Abuja City-Region, Nigeria: Integrating GIS and Remotely Sensed Data to Support Land Use Planning

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 1313 ◽  
Author(s):  
Evidence Enoguanbhor ◽  
Florian Gollnow ◽  
Jonas Nielsen ◽  
Tobia Lakes ◽  
Blake Walker
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Urban Development ◽  
Land Cover Change ◽  
Land Use Planning ◽  
Environmental Sustainability ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Urban Land Cover ◽  
Land Use Plan

Rapid urban expansion is a significant contributor to land cover change and poses a challenge to environmental sustainability, particularly in less developed countries. Insufficient data about urban expansion hinders effective land use planning. Therefore, a high need to collect, process, and disseminate land cover data exists. This study focuses on urban land cover change detection using Geographic Information Systems and remote sensing methods to produce baseline information in support for land use planning. We applied a supervised classification of land cover of LANDSAT data from 1987, 2002, and 2017. We mapped land cover transitions from 1987 to 2017 and computed the net land cover change during this time. Finally, we analyzed the mismatches between the past and current urban land cover and land use plans and quantified the non-urban development area lost to urban/built-up. Our results indicated an increase in urban/built-up and bare land cover types, while vegetation land cover decreased. We observed mismatches between past/current land cover and the existing land use plan. By providing detailed insights into mismatches between the regional land use plan and unregulated urban expansion, this study provides important information for a critical debate on the role and effectiveness of land use planning for environmental sustainability and sustainable urban development, particularly in less developed countries.

scholarly journals Research on Land Surface Thermal-Hydrologic Exchange in Southern China under Future Climate and Land Cover Scenarios

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jianwu Yan ◽  
Baozhang Chen ◽  
Min Feng ◽  
John L. Innes ◽  
Guangyu Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Water ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Land Cover Change ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Southern China ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Land Surface Water ◽  
Hydrologic Exchange ◽  
Heat Exchanges

Climate change inevitably leads to changes in hydrothermal circulation. However, thermal-hydrologic exchanging caused by land cover change has also undergone ineligible changes. Therefore, studying the comprehensive effects of climate and land cover changes on land surface water and heat exchanges enables us to well understand the formation mechanism of regional climate and predict climate change with fewer uncertainties. This study investigated the land surface thermal-hydrologic exchange across southern China for the next 40 years using a land surface model (ecosystem-atmosphere simulation scheme (EASS)). Our findings are summarized as follows. (i) Spatiotemporal variation patterns of sensible heat flux (H) and evapotranspiration (ET) under the land cover scenarios (A2a or B2a) and climate change scenario (A1B) are unanimous. (ii) BothHand ET take on a single peak pattern, and the peak occurs in June or July. (iii) Based on the regional interannual variability analysis,Hdisplays a downward trend (10%) and ET presents an increasing trend (15%). (iv) The annual averageHand ET would, respectively, increase and decrease by about 10% when woodland converts to the cultivated land. Through this study, we recognize that land surface water and heat exchanges are affected greatly by the future climate change as well as land cover change.

scholarly journals A comparison between direct and indirect frameworks to evaluate impacts of climate change on streamflows: case study of Karkheh River basin in Iran

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 652-674 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohsen Nasseri ◽  
Banafsheh Zahraie ◽  
Leila Forouhar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Hydrological Modeling ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines ◽  
Group Method ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Karkheh River Basin ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract In this paper, two approaches to assess the impacts of climate change on streamflows have been used. In the first approach (direct), a statistical downscaling technique was utilized to predict future streamflows based on large-scale data of general circulation models (GCMs). In the second approach (indirect), GCM outputs were downscaled to produce local climate conditions which were then used as inputs to a hydrological simulation model. In this article, some data-mining methods such as model-tree, multivariate adaptive regression splines and group method of data handling were utilized for direct downscaling of streamflows. Projections of HadCM3 model for A2 and B2 SRES scenarios were also used to simulate future climate conditions. These evaluations were done over three sub-basins of Karkheh River basin in southwest Iran. To achieve a comprehensive assessment, a global uncertainty assessment method was used to evaluate the results of the models. The results indicated that despite simplifications included in the direct downscaling, this approach is accurate enough to be used for assessing climate change impacts on streamflows without computational efforts of hydrological modeling. Furthermore, comparing future climate projections, the uncertainty associated with elimination of hydrological modeling is estimated to be high.

Comprehensive evaluation of the effects of climate change and land use and land cover change variables on runoff and sediment discharge

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huilan Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Soil Erosion ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Land Cover Change ◽  
Hydrological Modeling ◽  
Sediment Load ◽  
Statistical Analyses ◽  
Sediment Discharge ◽  
Runoff Depth

<p>Climate change and various human activities have resulted in noticeable changes in watershed hydrological and soil erosion regimes. In this study, a comprehensive investigation was conducted to distinguish between the effects of climate variables and those of land use and land cover change (LUCC) variables on runoff and sediment discharge in a watershed located at upper reaches of the Yangtze River. Statistical analysis results revealed significant and slight increasing trends in runoff and sediment discharge, respectively. Abrupt changes occurred in 1974 and 1995, which divided the entire time series into a decrease–increase–decrease tendency pattern; this pattern was the response to climate changes and the Reforestation and Returning Farmland to Forest project in China. In addition, redundancy analysis was used for partition statistical analyses, and the contributions of climate change and LUCC to runoff and sediment discharge were at the ratio of 4:1. Since 1990, the effect of LUCC has increased notably and its relationship with hydrological variables changed from positive to negative in approximately 1995. Finally, simulations performed using the distributed Basic Pollution Calculation Center (BPCC) model confirmed that climate and LUCC variables reduced the runoff depth and sediment load between 1980 and 2003. The contributions of climate fluctuation and LUCC to runoff depth were at the ratio of 5:1, and those to sediment load were at the ratio of 3:1, which exhibited the dominant role of climate change and the high sensitivity of sediment load to human interference. Overall, the results of distributed hydrological modeling were consistent with those of statistical analyses. The results provided detailed information and explained the mechanics underlying hydrological processes and soil erosion.</p><p> </p>

Land Cover Change Simulations in Yangon Under Several Scenarios of Flood and Earthquake Vulnerabilities with Master Plan

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 50-61 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tanakorn Sritarapipat ◽  
◽  
Wataru Takeuchi
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Land Cover Change ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Land Cover Changes ◽  
Master Plan ◽  
Economic Area ◽  
Urban Planning And Management ◽  
Multiple Scenarios

Yangon is the largest city and major economic area in Myanmar. However, it is considered to have a high risk of floods and earthquakes. In order to mitigate future flood and earthquake damage in Yangon, land cover change simulations considering flood and earthquake vulnerabilities are needed to support urban planning and management. This paper proposes land cover change simulations in Yangon from 2020 to 2040 under various scenarios of flood and earthquake vulnerabilities with a master plan. In our methodology, we used a dynamic statistical model to predict urban expansion in Yangon from 2020 to 2040. We employed a master plan as the future dataset to enhance the prediction of urban expansion. We applied flood and earthquake vulnerabilities based on multi-criteria analysis as the areas vulnerable to disaster. We simulated land cover changes from 2020 to 2040 considering the vulnerable areas with a master plan for multiple scenarios. The experiments indicated that by using a master plan, some of the predicted urban areas are still located in areas highly vulnerable to floods and earthquakes. By integrating the prediction of urban expansion with flood and earthquake vulnerabilities, the predicted urban areas can effectively avoid areas highly vulnerable to floods and earthquakes.

scholarly journals V2Karst V1.0: A parsimonious large-scale integrated vegetation-recharge model to simulate the impact of climate and land cover change in karst regions

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fanny Sarrazin ◽  
Andreas Hartmann ◽  
Francesca Pianosi ◽  
Thorsten Wagener
Keyword(s):  
Land Cover ◽  
Groundwater Recharge ◽  
Land Cover Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Synthetic Data ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Soil Parameters ◽  
Large Scale Assessment ◽  
Karst Areas ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Karst aquifers are an important source of drinking water in many regions of the world. Karst areas are highly permeable and produce large amounts of groundwater recharge, while surface runoff is typically negligible. As a result, recharge in these systems may have a different sensitivity to climate and land cover changes compared to other less permeable systems. However, little effort has been directed toward assessing the impact of climate and land cover change in karst areas at large-scales. In this study, we address this gap by (1) introducing the first large-scale hydrological model including an explicit representation of both karst and land cover properties, and by (2) analysing the model's recharge production behaviour. To achieve these points, we first improve the evapotranspiration estimation of a previous large-scale karst recharge model (VarKarst). The new model (V2Karst V1.0) includes a parsimonious representation of relevant ET processes for climate and land cover change impact studies. We demonstrate the plausibility of V2Karst simulations at carbonate rock FLUXNET sites using soft rules and global sensitivity analysis. Then, we use virtual experiments with synthetic data to assess the sensitivity of simulated recharge to precipitation characteristics and land cover. Results reveal how both vegetation and soil parameters control the model behaviour, and they suggest that simulated recharge is sensitive to both precipitation (overall amount and temporal distribution) and land cover. Large-scale assessment of future karst groundwater recharge should therefore consider the combined impact of changes in land cover and precipitation properties, if it is to produce realistic projections of future change impacts.

scholarly journals Urbanization Impact on Temperature Change in China with Emphasis on Land Cover Change and Human Activity

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (22) ◽  
pp. 8765-8780 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yan Li ◽  
Lijuan Zhu ◽  
Xinyi Zhao ◽  
Shuangcheng Li ◽  
Yan Yan
Keyword(s):  
Land Cover ◽  
Land Cover Change ◽  
Temperature Change ◽  
Human Activity ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Urbanization Effect ◽  
Temperature Trends ◽  
Impact Of Urbanization ◽  
Environmental Prediction ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The impact of urbanization on temperature trends in China was investigated with emphasis on two aspects of urbanization, land cover change, and human activity. A new station classification scheme was developed to incorporate these two aspects by utilizing land cover and energy consumption data. Observation temperature data of 274 stations and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)–National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis temperature from 1979 to 2010 were used in conducting the observation minus reanalysis (OMR) method to detect urban influence. Results indicated that nearly half of the stations in the study area have been converted from nonurban to urban stations as a result of land cover change associated with urban expansion. It was determined that both land cover change and human activity play important roles in temperature change and contribute to the observed warming, particularly in urbanized stations, where the highest amount of warming was detected. Urbanized stations showed higher OMR temperature trends than those of unchanged stations. In addition, a statistically significant positive relationship was detected between human activity and temperature trends, which suggests that the observed warming is closely related to the intensity and spatial extent of human activity. In fact, the urbanization effect is strongly affected by specific characteristics of urbanization in local and regional scales.

scholarly journals Effect of Land Use/Land Cover Change on Groundwater Recharge in Osun Drainage Basin, Nigeria

2019 ◽  
Vol 28 (3) ◽  
pp. 381-394
Author(s):  
E. D. Ashaolu ◽  
J. F. Olorunfemi ◽  
I. P. Ifabiyi
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Groundwater Recharge ◽  
Land Cover Change ◽  
Drainage Basin ◽  
Groundwater Resources ◽  
Land Development ◽  
Land Use Land Cover ◽  
Rock Outcrops ◽  
Groundwater System

Osun drainage basin is one of the regions in Nigeria experiencing increasing population growth and rapid urbanization; and about 70% of the inhabitantsrely on shallow groundwater resources of the region. Change in land use/land cover is one of the significant factors controlling regional hydrology and groundwater resources, thus the continuous change in land use and land cover of the drainage basin will significantly affect the basin’s groundwater resources. There are 7 classified land use/land cover in the study area which are bare surfaces, built up area, crops/shrubs, forest, rock outcrops, water bodies and wetland. Applying WetSpass-M hydrological model, we predicted the effect of land use/land cover change on the groundwater recharge in Osun drainage basin, Nigeria between 1984-2015. The results revealed that the highest groundwater recharge of 48.56%, 33.64% and 37.29% occurred in forested area in 1984, 2000 and 2015, respectively. This result might be due to the influence of vegetation in slowing down the speed of running water across the forest area, that allows more infiltration and deep percolation into the water table to recharge the groundwater system. On the other hand, the least groundwater recharge of the total annual was on the rock outcrops, which are about 4% in 1984, 3% in 2000 and 2% in 2015. The least recharge found on rock outcrops is expected and may be attributed to the fact that infiltration can only occur around or on decomposed rock outcrop, which may result in minute recharge to the groundwater system. The mean annual groundwater recharge of the basin for the land use/land cover of 1984, 2000 and 2015 are476.54, 411.07 and 430.06 mm/y, respectively. Overall, for the 32 years period of investigation, change in land use/land cover accounts for only 10% reduction in mean groundwater recharge occurrence between 1984 and 2015. Also, there is a change in recharge pattern in the study area during this period because most often, change in land use/land cover is a transition from one land use/land cover class to another, and the recharge pattern is influenced based on the degree of transition that took place and the characteristics of the dominant land use/land cover at a particular area of the basin. Although, the 10% reduction in mean annual recharge appears minute, this might become pronounced if the current rate of deforestation in the drainage basin continues unabated. Therefore, proper land use allocation, regulated land development and afforestation in terms of planting of native trees that were lost through anthropogenic activities in the basin should be policy option for groundwater sustainability.

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