scholarly journals High Spatial Resolution Modeling of Climate Change Impacts on Permafrost Thermal Conditions for the Beiluhe Basin, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 1294 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jing Luo ◽  
Guoan Yin ◽  
Fujun Niu ◽  
Zhanju Lin ◽  
Minghao Liu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Tibet Plateau ◽  
Ecosystem Change ◽  
Active Layer Thickness ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Permafrost Degradation ◽  
Thermal Dynamics ◽  
Discontinuous Permafrost ◽  
Qinghai Tibet Plateau

Permafrost is degrading on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) due to climate change. Permafrost degradation can result in ecosystem changes and damage to infrastructure. However, we lack baseline data related to permafrost thermal dynamics at a local scale. Here, we model climate change impacts on permafrost from 1986 to 2075 at a high resolution using a numerical model for the Beiluhe basin, which includes representative permafrost environments of the QTP. Ground surface temperatures are derived from air temperature using an n-factor vs Normalized Differential Vegetation Index (NDVI) relationship. Soil properties are defined by field measurements and ecosystem types. The climate projections are based on long-term observations. The modelled ground temperature (MAGT) and active-layer thickness (ALT) are close to in situ observations. The results show a discontinuous permafrost distribution (61.4%) in the Beiluhe basin at present. For the past 30 years, the permafrost area has decreased rapidly, by a total of 26%. The mean ALT has increased by 0.46 m. For the next 60 years, 8.5–35% of the permafrost area is likely to degrade under different trends of climate warming. The ALT will probably increase by 0.38–0.86 m. The results of this study are useful for developing a deeper understanding of ecosystem change, permafrost development, and infrastructure development on the QTP.

scholarly journals Using MODIS Land Surface Temperatures for Permafrost Thermal Modeling in Beiluhe Basin on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Sensors ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (19) ◽  
pp. 4200 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anyuan Li ◽  
Caichu Xia ◽  
Chunyan Bao ◽  
Guoan Yin
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Ground Surface ◽  
Tibet Plateau ◽  
Active Layer Thickness ◽  
Permafrost Region ◽  
Thermal Dynamics ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Warm Bias ◽  
Qinghai Tibet Plateau

It is essential to monitor the ground temperature over large areas to understand and predict the effects of climate change on permafrost due to its rapid warming on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). Land surface temperature (LST) is an important parameter for the energy budget of permafrost environments. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) LST products are especially valuable for detecting permafrost thermal dynamics across the QTP. This study presents a comparison of MODIS-LST values with in situ near-surface air temperature (Ta), and ground surface temperature (GST) obtained from 2014 to 2016 at five sites in Beiluhe basin, a representative permafrost region on the QTP. Furthermore, the performance of the thermal permafrost model forced by MODIS-LSTs was studied. Averaged LSTs are found to strongly correlated with Ta and GST with R2 values being around 0.9. There is a significant warm bias (4.43–4.67 °C) between averaged LST and Ta, and a slight warm bias (0.67–2.66 °C) between averaged LST and GST. This study indicates that averaged MODIS-LST is supposed to be a useful data source for permafrost monitoring. The modeled ground temperatures and active-layer thickness have a good agreement with the measurements, with a difference of less than 1.0 °C and 0.4 m, respectively.

scholarly journals PIC v1.3: comprehensive R package for computing permafrost indices with daily weather observations and atmospheric forcing over the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 2475-2491 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lihui Luo ◽  
Zhongqiong Zhang ◽  
Wei Ma ◽  
Shuhua Yi ◽  
Yanli Zhuang
Keyword(s):  
Ground Surface ◽  
R Package ◽  
Frozen Soil ◽  
Tibet Plateau ◽  
Trend Test ◽  
Active Layer Thickness ◽  
Permafrost Degradation ◽  
Spatial Trends ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Qinghai Tibet Plateau

Abstract. An R package was developed for computing permafrost indices (PIC v1.3) that integrates meteorological observations, gridded meteorological datasets, soil databases, and field measurements to compute the factors or indices of permafrost and seasonal frozen soil. At present, 16 temperature- and depth-related indices are integrated into the PIC v1.3 R package to estimate the possible trends of frozen soil in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP). These indices include the mean annual air temperature (MAAT), mean annual ground surface temperature (MAGST), mean annual ground temperature (MAGT), seasonal thawing–freezing n factor (nt∕nf), thawing–freezing degree-days for air and the ground surface (DDTa∕DDTs∕DDFa∕DDFs), temperature at the top of the permafrost (TTOP), active layer thickness (ALT), and maximum seasonal freeze depth. PIC v1.3 supports two computational modes, namely the stations and regional calculations that enable statistical analysis and intuitive visualization of the time series and spatial simulations. Datasets of 52 weather stations and a central region of the QTP were prepared and simulated to evaluate the temporal–spatial trends of permafrost with the climate. More than 10 statistical methods and a sequential Mann–Kendall trend test were adopted to evaluate these indices in stations, and spatial methods were adopted to assess the spatial trends. Multiple visual methods were used to display the temporal and spatial variability of the stations and region. Simulation results show extensive permafrost degradation in the QTP, and the temporal–spatial trends of the permafrost conditions in the QTP are close to those of previous studies. The transparency and repeatability of the PIC v1.3 package and its data can be used and extended to assess the impact of climate change on permafrost.

scholarly journals Numerical Mapping and Modeling Permafrost Thermal Dynamics across the Qinghai-Tibet Engineering Corridor, China Integrated with Remote Sensing

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 2069 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guoan Yin ◽  
Hao Zheng ◽  
Fujun Niu ◽  
Jing Luo ◽  
Zhanju Lin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Field Measurements ◽  
Active Layer Thickness ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Permafrost Region ◽  
Infrastructure Development ◽  
High Mountains ◽  
Thermal Dynamics ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Discontinuous Permafrost

Permafrost thermal conditions across the Qinghai–Tibet Engineering Corridor (QTEC) is of growing interest due to infrastructure development. Most modeling of the permafrost thermal regime has been conducted at coarser spatial resolution, which is not suitable for engineering construction in a warming climate. Here we model the spatial permafrost thermal dynamics across the QTEC from the 2010 to the 2060 using the ground thermal model. Soil properties are defined based on field measurements and ecosystem types. The climate forcing datasets are synthesized from MODIS-LST products and the reanalysis product of near-surface air temperature. The climate projections are based on long-term observations of air temperature across the QTEC. The comparison of model results to field measurements demonstrates a satisfactory agreement for the purpose of permafrost thermal modeling. The results indicate a discontinuous permafrost distribution in the QTEC. Mean annual ground temperatures (MAGT) are lowest (<−2.0 °C) for the high mountains. In most upland plains, MAGTs range from −2.0 °C to 0 °C. For high mountains, the average active-layer thickness (ALT) is less than 2.0 m, while the river valley features ALT of more than 4.0 m. For upland plains, the modeled ALTs generally range from 3.0 m to 4.0 m. The simulated results for the future 50 years suggest that 12.0%~20.2% of the permafrost region will be involved in degradation, with an MAGT increase of 0.4 °C~2.3 °C, and the ALT increasing by 0.4 m~7.3 m. The results of this study are useful for the infrastructure development, although there are still several improvements in detailed forcing datasets and a locally realistic model.

Status, Changes and Impacts of Permafrost on Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lin Zhao ◽  
Guojie Hu ◽  
Defu Zou ◽  
Ren Li ◽  
Yu Sheng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Organic Carbon ◽  
Soil Organic Carbon ◽  
Active Layer ◽  
Climate Warming ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Tibet Plateau ◽  
Active Layer Thickness ◽  
Permafrost Region ◽  
Permafrost Degradation ◽  
Qinghai Tibet Plateau

&lt;p&gt;Due to the climate warming, permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) was degradating in the past decades. Since its impacts on East Asian monsoon, and even on the global climate system, it is fundamental to reveal permafrost status, changes and its physical processes. Based on previous research results and new observation data, this paper reviews the characteristics of the status of permafrost on the QTP, including the active layer thickness (ALT), the spatial distribution of permafrost, permafrost temperature and thickness, as well as the ground ice and soil carbon storage in permafrost region.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The results showed that the permafrost and seasonally frozen ground area (excluding glaciers and lakes) is 1.06 million square kilometters and 1.45 million square kilometters on the QTP. The permafrost thickness varies greatly among topography, with the maximum value in mountainous areas, which could be deeper than 200 m, while the minimum value in the flat areas and mountain valleys, which could be less than 60 m. The mean value of active layer thickness is about 2.3 m. Soil temperature at 0~10 cm, 10~40 cm, 40~100 cm, 100~200 cm increased at a rate of 0.439, 0.449, 0.396, and 0.259&amp;#176;C/10a, respectively, from 1980 to 2015. The increasing rate of the soil temperature at the bottom of active layer was 0.486 oC/10a from 2004 to 2018.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The volume of ground ice contained in permafrost on QTP is estimated up to 1.27&amp;#215;10&lt;sup&gt;4&lt;/sup&gt; km&lt;sup&gt;3&lt;/sup&gt; (liquid water equivalent). The soil organic carbon staored in the upper 2 m of soils within the permafrost region is about 17 Pg. Most of the research results showed that the permafrost ecosystem is still a carbon sink at the present, but it might be shifted to a carbon source due to the loss of soil organic carbon along with permafrost degradation.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Overall, the plateau permafrost has undergone remarkable degradation during past decades, which are clearly proven by the increasing ALTs and ground temperature. Most of the permafrost on the QTP belongs to the unstable permafrost, meaning that permafrost over TPQ is very sensitive to climate warming. The permafrost interacts closely with water, soil, greenhouse gases emission and biosphere. Therefore, the permafrost degradation greatly affects the regional hydrology, ecology and even the global climate system.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals PIC: Comprehensive R package for permafrost indices computing with daily weather observations and atmospheric forcing over the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lihui Luo ◽  
Zhongqiong Zhang ◽  
Wei Ma ◽  
Shuhua Yi ◽  
Yanli Zhuang
Keyword(s):  
Ground Surface ◽  
R Package ◽  
Frozen Soil ◽  
Tibet Plateau ◽  
Climate Simulation ◽  
Trend Test ◽  
Active Layer Thickness ◽  
Permafrost Degradation ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Qinghai Tibet Plateau

Abstract. An R package permafrost indices computing (PIC) was developed, which integrates meteorological observations, remote sensing data, and field measurements to compute the factors or indices of permafrost and seasonal frozen soil. At present, 16 temperature/depth-related indices are integrated into the R package PIC to estimate the possible change trends of frozen soil in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP). These indices include the mean annual air temperature, mean annual ground surface temperature, mean annual ground temperature, seasonal thawing/freezing n factor (nt/nf), thawing/freezing degree-days of air and ground surface (DDTa/DDTs/DDFa/DDFs), temperature at the top of the permafrost, active layer thickness, and maximum seasonal freeze depth. The PIC package supports two computational modes, namely, the stations and region calculation that enables statistical analysis and intuitive visualization on the time series and spatial simulations. Over 10 statistical methods were adopted to evaluate these indices in stations, and a sequential Mann-Kendall trend test and spatial trend method were adopted. Multiple visual manners display the temporal and spatial variabilities on the stations and region. The data sets of 52 weather stations and a central region of QTP were prepared and simulated to evaluate the temporal–spatial change trends of permafrost with the climate. Simulation results show extensive permafrost degradation in QTP, and the temporal–spatial trends of the permafrost conditions in QTP were consistent with those of previous studies. The PIC package will serve engineering applications and can be used to assess the impact of climate change on permafrost.

scholarly journals Amplified Impact of Climate Change on Fine-Sediment Delivery to a Subsiding Coast, Humboldt Bay, California

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jennifer A. Curtis ◽  
Lorraine E. Flint ◽  
Michelle A. Stern ◽  
Jack Lewis ◽  
Randy D. Klein
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Sediment Supply ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Sediment Delivery ◽  
Beneficial Reuse ◽  
Coastal Margin

AbstractIn Humboldt Bay, tectonic subsidence exacerbates sea-level rise (SLR). To build surface elevations and to keep pace with SLR, the sediment demand created by subsidence and SLR must be balanced by an adequate sediment supply. This study used an ensemble of plausible future scenarios to predict potential climate change impacts on suspended-sediment discharge (Qss) from fluvial sources. Streamflow was simulated using a deterministic water-balance model, and Qss was computed using statistical sediment-transport models. Changes relative to a baseline period (1981–2010) were used to assess climate impacts. For local basins that discharge directly to the bay, the ensemble means projected increases in Qss of 27% for the mid-century (2040–2069) and 58% for the end-of-century (2070–2099). For the Eel River, a regional sediment source that discharges sediment-laden plumes to the coastal margin, the ensemble means projected increases in Qss of 53% for the mid-century and 99% for the end-of-century. Climate projections of increased precipitation and streamflow produced amplified increases in the regional sediment supply that may partially or wholly mitigate sediment demand caused by the combined effects of subsidence and SLR. This finding has important implications for coastal resiliency. Coastal regions with an increasing sediment supply may be more resilient to SLR. In a broader context, an increasing sediment supply from fluvial sources has global relevance for communities threatened by SLR that are increasingly building resiliency to SLR using sediment-based solutions that include regional sediment management, beneficial reuse strategies, and marsh restoration.

scholarly journals Spatial and Temporal Differences in Alpine Meadow, Alpine Steppe and All Vegetation of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and Their Responses to Climate Change

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 669
Author(s):  
Hanchen Duan ◽  
Xian Xue ◽  
Tao Wang ◽  
Wenping Kang ◽  
Jie Liao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Alpine Meadow ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Tibet Plateau ◽  
Vegetation Types ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Alpine Steppe ◽  
Qinghai Tibet Plateau ◽  
Variation Trends

Alpine meadow and alpine steppe are the two most widely distributed nonzonal vegetation types in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. In the context of global climate change, the differences in spatial-temporal variation trends and their responses to climate change are discussed. It is of great significance to reveal the response of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau to global climate change and the construction of ecological security barriers. This study takes alpine meadow, alpine steppe and the overall vegetation of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau as the research objects. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data and meteorological data were used as the data sources between 2000 and 2018. By using the mean value method, threshold method, trend analysis method and correlation analysis method, the spatial and temporal variation trends in the alpine meadow, alpine steppe and the overall vegetation of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau were compared and analyzed, and their differences in the responses to climate change were discussed. The results showed the following: (1) The growing season length of alpine meadow was 145~289 d, while that of alpine steppe and the overall vegetation of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau was 161~273 d, and their growing season lengths were significantly shorter than that of alpine meadow. (2) The annual variation trends of the growing season NDVI for the alpine meadow, alpine steppe and the overall vegetation of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau increased obviously, but their fluctuation range and change rate were significantly different. (3) The overall vegetation improvement in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau was primarily dominated by alpine steppe and alpine meadow, while the degradation was primarily dominated by alpine meadow. (4) The responses between the growing season NDVI and climatic factors in the alpine meadow, alpine steppe and the overall vegetation of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau had great spatial heterogeneity in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. These findings provide evidence towards understanding the characteristics of the different vegetation types in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and their spatial differences in response to climate change.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document