scholarly journals Locking Status and Earthquake Potential Hazard along the Middle-South Xianshuihe Fault

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 2048 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rumeng Guo ◽  
Yong Zheng ◽  
Wen Tian ◽  
Jianqiao Xu ◽  
Wenting Zhang

By combining the seismogenic environment, seismic recurrence periods of strong historical earthquakes, precise locations of small–moderate earthquakes, and Coulomb stress changes of moderate–strong earthquakes, we analyze the potential locking status of a seismically quiet segment of Xianshuihe fault between Daofu County and Kangding City (SDK). The interseismic surface velocities between 1999 and 2017 are obtained from updated global positioning system (GPS) observations in this region. After removing the post-seismic relaxation effect caused by the 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake that occurred around the fault segment, the observed velocities reveal a pronounced symmetric slip pattern along the SDK trace. The far field slip rate is 7.8 ± 0.4 mm/a, and the fault SDK is confirmed to be in an interseismic silent phase. The optimal locking depth is estimated at 7 km, which is perfectly distributed on the upper edge of the relocated hypocenters. A moment deficit analysis shows cumulative seismic moment between 1955 and 2018, corresponding to an Mw 6.6 event. Finally, based on a viscoelastic deformation model, we find that moderate–strong earthquakes in the surrounding area increase the Coulomb stress level by up to 2 bars on the SDK, significantly enhancing the future seismic potential.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gang Yang ◽  
Dongning Lei ◽  
Jianchao Wu

Abstract The Central Tibet constitutes part of the central part of Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, which is one of the highest seismic activity areas in China. This paper discussed the regularity of seismic activity in this area. Based on a stratified viscoelastic earth model, we calculated the Coulomb stress changes imparted from the 4 strong earthquakes (M≥6.3) the Bengco - southeastern piedmont of Nyainqentanglha mountain fault zone in this region. The result shows that the study area may enter a new active period from 2020. There was a trigger between strong earthquakes (M≥6.3) on the Bengco fault - southeastern piedmont of Nyainqentanglha mountain fault zone. The post-seismic viscous relaxation effect of a strong earthquake had a significant impact on subsequent earthquakes(M≥6.3). In future 100 years, the Coulomb stress loading is more than 1.0 MPa in northwest section of Bengco fault and central of Nimu segment of southeastern piedmont of Nyainqentanglha mountain fault, thence strong earthquakes may occur in this two fault segments. The maximum magnitude of the earthquake will be M6.7 in the future 100 years.


2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Taufiq Rafie ◽  
David P. Sahara ◽  
Phil R. Cummins ◽  
Wahyu Triyoso ◽  
Sri Widiyantoro

Abstract The seismically active Sumatra subduction zone has generated some of the largest earthquakes in the instrumental record, and both historical accounts and paleogeodetic coral studies indicate such activity has historical recorded megathrust earthquakes and transferred stress to the surrounding, including the Great Sumatran Fault (GSF). Therefore, evaluating the stress transfer from these large subduction earthquakes could delineate the highly stressed area as potential-earthquake region along the GSF. In this study, we investigated eight megathrust earthquakes from 1797 to 2010 and resolved the accumulated Coulomb stress changes onto the 18 segments along the GSF. Additionally, we also estimated the rate of tectonic stress on the GSF segments which experienced large earthquake using the case of: (1) no sliver movement and (2) with sliver movement. Based on the historical stress changes of large earthquakes and the increase in tectonic stress rate, we analysed the historical stress changes time evolution on the GSF. The Coulomb stress accumulation of megathrust earthquakes between 1797-1907 increase the stress changes mainly on the southern part of GSF which followed by four major events between 1890-1943. The estimation of tectonic stress rates using case (1) produces low rate and long recurrence intervals which implies that the megathrust earthquakes plays an important role in allowing the GSF earthquake to occur. When implementing the arc-parallel sliver movement of case (2) to the calculation, the tectonic stress rates is 9 to 58 times higher than case (1) of no sliver movement. The observed slip rate of 15-16 mm/yr at the GSF is consistent with the recurrence interval for full-segment rupture of 100-200 years obtained from case (2). This suggests that the GSF earthquake is more controlled by the rapid arc-parallel forearc sliver motion. Furthermore, the analysis of stress changes time evolution model shows that some segments such as Tripa (North and South), Angkola, Musi and Manna appear to be brought back in their seismic cycles since these segments have experienced full-segment rupture and likely locked, increasing their earthquake hazard potentials.


2001 ◽  
Vol 34 (4) ◽  
pp. 1539
Author(s):  
E. E. PAPADIMITRIOU ◽  
V. G. KARAKOSTAS ◽  
A. B. BABA

Coulomb stress changes (ACFF)were calculated assuming that earthquakes can be modelled as static dislocations in an elastic half-space, and taking into account the coseismic slip in strong earthquakes. The stress change calculations were performed for strike, dip, and rake appropriate to the strong events considered. We evaluate if these chosen earthquakes brought a given strong subsequent event closer to, or farther from, failure. It was found that each of the subsequent strong events occurred in regions of increased calculated Coulomb stress before their occurrence. Moreover, the majority of smaller aftershocks also were located in areas of positive ACFF. This indicates the probable triggering of the latter events, the foci of which are situated at nearby faults or fault segments.


Author(s):  
R. Alac Barut ◽  
J. Trinder ◽  
C. Rizos

On August 17<sup>th</sup> 1999, a M<sub>w</sub> 7.4 earthquake struck the city of Izmit in the north-west of Turkey. This event was one of the most devastating earthquakes of the twentieth century. The epicentre of the Izmit earthquake was on the North Anatolian Fault (NAF) which is one of the most active right-lateral strike-slip faults on earth. However, this earthquake offers an opportunity to study how strain is accommodated in an inter-segment region of a large strike slip fault. In order to determine the Izmit earthquake post-seismic effects, the authors modelled Coulomb stress changes of the aftershocks, as well as using the deformation measurement techniques of Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) and Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS). The authors have shown that InSAR and GNSS observations over a time period of three months after the earthquake combined with Coulomb Stress Change Modelling can explain the fault zone expansion, as well as the deformation of the northern region of the NAF. It was also found that there is a strong agreement between the InSAR and GNSS results for the post-seismic phases of investigation, with differences less than 2mm, and the standard deviation of the differences is less than 1mm.


2014 ◽  
Vol 971-973 ◽  
pp. 2172-2175
Author(s):  
Dong Ning Lei ◽  
Jian Chao Wu ◽  
Yong Jian Cai

TheCoulomb stress changes are usually adopted to make analysis on faultinteractions and stress triggering. This paper mainly deals with Coulomb stresschange of mainshock and affect on aftershocks. We preliminarily conclude thatthe mainshock produce Coulomb stress change on aftershocks most behavingpositive and triggered them. By calculating it is obvious that more aftershocksfell into stress increasing area and triggering percentage is up to ninety ofmaximum and seventy-one of minimum.


2015 ◽  
Vol 173 (1) ◽  
pp. 49-72 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. M. Leptokaropoulos ◽  
E. E. Papadimitriou ◽  
B. Orlecka–Sikora ◽  
V. G. Karakostas

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