scholarly journals Retiree Mortality Forecasting: A Partial Age-Range or a Full Age-Range Model?

Risks ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 69
Author(s):  
Han Lin Shang ◽  
Steven Haberman
Keyword(s):  
Developed Countries ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Mortality Forecasting ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Long Term Forecasting ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Mortality Forecasts ◽  
The One ◽  
Age Range

An essential input of annuity pricing is the future retiree mortality. From observed age-specific mortality data, modeling and forecasting can take place in two routes. On the one hand, we can first truncate the available data to retiree ages and then produce mortality forecasts based on a partial age-range model. On the other hand, with all available data, we can first apply a full age-range model to produce forecasts and then truncate the mortality forecasts to retiree ages. We investigate the difference in modeling the logarithmic transformation of the central mortality rates between a partial age-range and a full age-range model, using data from mainly developed countries in the Human Mortality Database (2020). By evaluating and comparing the short-term point and interval forecast accuracies, we recommend the first strategy by truncating all available data to retiree ages and then produce mortality forecasts. However, when considering the long-term forecasts, it is unclear which strategy is better since it is more difficult to find a model and parameters that are optimal. This is a disadvantage of using methods based on time-series extrapolation for long-term forecasting. Instead, an expectation approach, in which experts set a future target, could be considered, noting that this method has also had limited success in the past.

scholarly journals Quantification of mortality and morbidity in general population of heavily-industrialized city of Abadan: Effect of long-term exposure

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Akram Ghorbanian ◽  
Ahmad Jonidi Jafari ◽  
Abbas Shahsavani ◽  
Ali Abdolahnejad ◽  
Majid Kermani ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Air Pollution Control ◽  
Medical Sciences ◽  
Mortality And Morbidity ◽  
Khuzestan Province ◽  
Vice Chancellor ◽  
One Year ◽  
The One

Introduction: In the 21st century, air pollution has become a global and environmental challenge. The increase in cases of illness and mortality due to air pollution is not hidden from anyone. Therefore, in this study, we estimated the mortality rate due to cause by air pollution agents (PM2.5) in the southernmost city of Khuzestan province (Abadan city) at 2018-2019. Materials and methods: To estimate the mortality duo to air pollution, data related to PM2.5 particles daily concentrations was received from the Abadan Environmental Protection Organization. The average 24-h concentrations of PM2.5 were calculated using Excel. Then, mortality data were obtained from the Vice Chancellor for Health, Abadan University of Medical Sciences. Finally, by AirQ+ software, each of the mortality in 2018-2019 in Abadan was estimated. Results: The obtained data indicated that the concentration of PM2.5 particles within the one-year period was higher than the value set by WHO guideline and EPA standard. Which caused the citizens of Abadan to be exposed to PM2.5 more than 8.23 times than the guidelines of the WHO and 5.34 times more than the standard of the EPA. The output of the model used in this study was as follows: natural mortality (462 cases, AP: 38.25%), mortality duo to LC (6 cases, AP: 32.18%), mortality duo to COPD (8 cases, AP: 26.64%), mortality duo to Stroke (86 cases, AP: 71.26%), mortality duo to IHD (183 cases, AP: 68.34%) and mortality duo to ALRI (2 cases, AP: 32.9%). Conclusion: Planning appropriate strategies of air pollution control to reduce exposure and attributable mortalities is important and necessary.

scholarly journals Flat Glass or Crystal Dome Aperture? A Year-Long Comparative Analysis of the Performance of Light Pipes in Real Residential Settings and Climatic Conditions

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 3858 ◽  
Author(s):  
Magda Sibley ◽  
Antonio Peña-García
Keyword(s):  
Comparative Analysis ◽  
Flat Glass ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Long Term Effect ◽  
Different Types ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Aesthetic ◽  
One Year ◽  
The One

This paper presents the first comparative study of its type of the performance of light pipes with different types of apertures: a flat glass versus a bohemian crystal dome. Measurements were taken at 20-minute intervals over a period of one year in the bathrooms of two newly built identical houses of the same orientation located in Manchester, UK. The comparative analysis of the data collected for both light pipes types reveals that the crystal domed aperture consistently outperforms the flat glass one. Furthermore, the difference in the recorded horizontal illuminance is most marked during the winter months and at the end of the one-year experiment, indicating that the crystal dome has better performance for low incident winter light and higher resistance for the long term effect of weathering and pollution. This study provides strong evidence based on long term real measurements. Such evidence informs architects’ decisions when weighing up the aesthetic considerations of a flat glass aperture versus the higher illumination levels afforded by a crystal dome aperture with higher resistance to weathering and pollution.

scholarly journals Energy Poverty and Life Satisfaction: Structural Mechanisms and Their Implications

Energies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (20) ◽  
pp. 3988 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elena Druică ◽  
Zizi Goschin ◽  
Rodica Ianole-Călin
Keyword(s):  
Socioeconomic Status ◽  
Life Satisfaction ◽  
Health Status ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Path Model ◽  
Energy Poverty ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Self Reported Health Status ◽  
Eastern European Countries ◽  
The One

This paper investigates the distinct mechanisms through which energy poverty is linked to life satisfaction, via health status and one’s satisfaction with one’s own socioeconomic status, using data from the Life in Transition survey. Our sample contains 19,598 individuals from 11 former communist states located in Central and Eastern Europe, and two developed countries for comparison. We estimated a partial least squared–path model and found that both health status and socioeconomic status are relevant mediators. Our results also indicate that gender moderates the relation between health status and life satisfaction. Energy poverty has a low contribution to health status but a larger contribution to satisfaction with socioeconomic status, thus indicating that interventions on energy poverty may not greatly improve the level of health, but can have an influence on how people feel about their life. The contribution of our paper is twofold. On the one side, we continue to consolidate the existing link between energy poverty and self-reported health status with a new focus on the Central and Eastern European countries; on another side, we propose a theoretical framework expansion by including totally novel factors to be analyzed in this context: satisfaction with socioeconomic status, economic environment improvement, and intolerance.

Superior economic performance in developed and developing countries

2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 93-107 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sandra Ruiz ◽  
Paulo Arvate ◽  
Wlamir Xavier
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Economic Performance ◽  
Probit Model ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Competitive Advantages ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Kolmogorov Smirnov ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Using Data

Purpose The extant literature on emerging economies states that the development of the institutional context contributes to the creation of hypercompetitive conditions. The purpose of this paper is to test this assertion by using data from both developing and developed countries. Design/methodology/approach The study used a probit model, Kolmogorov Smirnov tests and propensity score matching to determine the difference in persistent superior economic performance. Panel data from 600 firms in 26 different countries were used for the period from 1995 to 2011. Findings The empirical results support the proposition that there is a significant difference in superior economic performance and persistent superior economic performance sustainability between firms in developed and developing countries. Originality/value This study contributes by fostering other theories related to competitive advantages and giving special emphasis to the comparison between developed and developing countries.

scholarly journals Impact of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine uptake on childhood pneumonia mortality across income levels in Brazil, Colombia, and Peru

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
pp. 136
Author(s):  
Kayoko Shioda ◽  
Cristiana M. Toscano ◽  
Maria Tereza Valenzuela ◽  
William Valdez Huarcaya ◽  
Joshua L. Warren ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Low Income ◽  
Healthcare Access ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Income Level ◽  
High Income ◽  
Vaccine Uptake ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Income Levels ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Using Data

Background: Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) have prevented deaths due to pneumonia among children. The effect may differ between higher- and lower-income populations due to various factors, such as differences in the distribution of pneumococcal serotypes, healthcare access, and PCV uptake. This study aims to evaluate an association between increasing PCV coverage and population-level declines in death due to pneumonia and its variation by socioeconomic status of subnational regions. Methods: We analyzed municipality-level mortality data from 2005 and 2015 for children aged 2-23 months in Brazil, Colombia, and Peru. We fit Poisson regression models to estimate the relationship between changes in PCV uptake and deaths due to all-cause pneumonia among subnational regions with different income levels. We controlled for changes unrelated to PCV by using data on non-respiratory deaths over time. Results: Uptake of the third dose of PCV varied across subnational regions and was higher in high-income regions. Higher uptake of PCV was associated with larger declines in pneumonia mortality. This association did not differ by income level of the region in Brazil and Colombia. In Peru, low-income regions observed larger declines in pneumonia deaths, but there was large uncertainty in the difference between the low- and high-income regions. We estimated that, with 90% coverage, there would be 4-38% declines in all-cause pneumonia mortality across income levels and countries. Conclusions: Regions with higher PCV coverage experienced larger declines in pneumonia deaths, regardless of the income level. Having more reliable data on mortality records and vaccine uptake would improve the reliability of vaccine impact estimates.

scholarly journals Modelling and Prediction of the Gross Mortality Rate in Ecuador

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mónica Mite ◽  
Sandra Garcia-Bustos ◽  
Marcela Pincay ◽  
Ana Debón ◽  
Francisco Santoja
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Cohort Effect ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Arima Models ◽  
Men And Women ◽  
Mortality Forecasting ◽  
Basic Model ◽  
Adjusted Model ◽  
Age Range ◽  
Carter Model

This paper presents the results obtained from the modelling of the mortality data in Ecuador from 1990 to 2010, using the StMoMo library in the open source programming language R. This library was developed based on the Generalized Age-Period-Cohort Models (GAPC), among which is the Lee-Carter model, which has been widely applied in the actuarial area. The gross mortality rate of men and women in an age range of 1 to 85 years was modelled for the data of Ecuador, in the period 1990-2010. Of a total of eight models, two models have been selected because they present a good fit of the data for both genders. The first is the basic model of Lee-Carter and the second, the Plat model, which incorporates the cohort effect. A comparison was made with the two models to determine which one has a better forecast in a horizon of 20 years for specific ages. Both models show and predict the decrease in mortality in Ecuador of both genders, a decrease that is more pronounced, in general, for women at certain ages. In determining the uncertainty of the models, the bootstrap technique was used to define the confidence intervals of the adjusted model. The GAPC and ARIMA models were also compared; the former improve the mortality forecasting.

scholarly journals Longer-Term Forecasting of Excess Stock Returns—The Five-Year Case

Mathematics ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (6) ◽  
pp. 927
Author(s):  
Ioannis Kyriakou ◽  
Parastoo Mousavi ◽  
Jens Perch Nielsen ◽  
Michael Scholz
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Geometric Mean ◽  
General Tendency ◽  
Investment Strategies ◽  
Excess Stock Returns ◽  
Long Term Forecasting ◽  
Economic Predictors ◽  
One Year ◽  
The One

Long-term return expectations or predictions play an important role in planning purposes and guidance of long-term investors. Five-year stock returns are less volatile around their geometric mean than returns of higher frequency, such as one-year returns. One would, therefore, expect models using the latter to better reduce the noise and beat the simple historical mean than models based on the former. However, this paper shows that the general tendency is surprisingly the opposite: long-term forecasts over five years have a similar or even better predictive power when compared to the one-year case. We consider a long list of economic predictors and benchmarks relevant for the long-term investor. Our predictive approach consists of adopting and implementing a fully nonparametric smoother with the covariates and the smoothing parameters chosen by cross-validation. We consistently find that long-term forecasting performs well and recommend drawing more attention to it when designing investment strategies for long-term investors. Furthermore, our preferred predictive model did stand the test of Covid-19 providing a relatively optimistic outlook in March 2020 when uncertainty was all around us with lockdown and facing an unknown new pandemic.

scholarly journals Specialists and generalists

Upravlenie ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 46-55
Author(s):  
I. V. Anokhov
Keyword(s):  
The Other ◽  
Cause And Effect ◽  
Energy Flows ◽  
Labor Division ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The One ◽  
Labor Specialization ◽  
Organizational Science

The article considers labor specialization in terms of A.A. Bogdanov’s General Organizational Science (Tectology), whose methodology provides conclusions different from generally accepted A. Smith’s concept of labor division. The article’s goal is to investigate specialist’s characteristics and his difference from generalist.In terms of tectology, the difference is the cause of any process or phenomenon. Labor specialization is also based on difference – the difference between initial resources and collective consumption. The depth of labor specialization is determined by the number of people and the volume of their consumption. Reaching the global market’s limits has led to a reduction of differences in most markets and a decrease in production profitability, which in the long term can lead to the curtailment of material and energy flows. A qualitatively new difference may be the difference between the values and meanings of humanity, on the one hand, and the dehumanized technosphere, on the other. Subjects capable of linking these differences are generalists, capable of combining an understanding of the technosphere as a system, an awareness of long-term cause-and-effect relations, and the values and meanings of humanity.The scientific novelty of the findings obtained lies in studying labor specialization and the prospects of its transition to universalization and generalization.

The multifunction oil for US Army tank and automotive vehicles

2020 ◽  
Vol 06 ◽  
pp. 56-61
Author(s):  
A. V. Ivanov ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Engine Oil ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Us Army ◽  
Low Viscosity ◽  
Military Vehicle ◽  
Vehicle Operation ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The One ◽  
Desert Climate

The U.S. Army has a desire to consolidate multiple MIL specification fluids into a single specification, or Single Common Powertrain Lubricant (SCPL) program. This program is seeking to develop an all-season (arctic to desert), fuel-efficient, multi-functional powertrain fluid with extended drain capabilities and designed to consolidate multiple military lubricant specifications into a single product, or single specification. This paper covers the long term field demonstration programs of the SCPL conducted three locations, representing basic, arctic, and desert climate conditions respectively. Overall the field demonstration for all three locations was considered successful. Real world military vehicle operation using SCPL did not show any differences from currently fielded MIL-PRF-2104 and MIL-PRF-46167 products. In addition, the durability of the SCPL over the one and two year test durations showed that the SCPL is capable of extended drain intervals than the current annual oil change recommendations. These results confirms that the SCPL is a drop in replacement, and is providing improved overall performance compared to currently fielded products. The use of low viscosity engine oil was shown to have a significant impact on fuel consumption: the difference between the current MIL-PRF-2104H SAE 15W-40 grade and the best experimental fluid had an improvement of 1.66% over the test cycle.

Long-Term Forecasting of World Economy

2014 ◽  
pp. 5-14
Author(s):  
Y. Lukashin ◽  
L. Rakhlina
Keyword(s):  
Quality Of Life ◽  
Life Quality ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
New Era ◽  
Spare Time ◽  
Processing Gain ◽  
Long Term Forecasting ◽  
High Level

The paper considers contemporary approaches of long-term forecasting of world and national economics. Foreign practice is of especial interest of authors. Researches and results of PricewaterhouseCoopers and Goldman Sachs are exposed in details. Authors make the following conclusions: a production function model is used often to generate forecasts. The parameters of these models are postulated by experts in coincidence with their scenario of World development. Main indicators to forecast are GDP, GDP per capita and changes in country ranks. Authors consider GDP as not ideal indicator for the goal since it may be calculated by three methods. Besides, it has different structure and quality in different countries. Authors point to the need for estimation and comparison of quality of life. They suggest to take into account the revolutionary changing in technologies and to schedule the optimum and the most realistic path to improve the quality of life. Authors suggest that the most developed countries are entering a new era when robots will work more and more instead of people in industry, agriculture, and services. Many operations in control, management and data processing gain higher productivity due to endless progress in computer science. As a result authors foresee further shortening of the working week. On their opinion this is the way which leads to real success in struggle against unemployment. ICT technologies enable many employees to work now at home. Growing of spare time leads to new pattern of life, new possibilities of education, new types of creative work, new possibilities of communication, additional possibilities for health care, high level of life quality. So far, comparison of national economy development on the basis of measuring GDP seems to become obsolete and irrelevant to current social and economic conditions. Now we can expect to see negative rates of GDP growth and augmentation of life quality. Thus, to construct the countries’ ranks in world competition correctly it is of great importance to take into account the social factors and the role of innovation technologies in world economic development.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document