scholarly journals Integration of Regression Analysis and Monte Carlo Simulation for Probabilistic Energy Policy Guidelines in Pakistan

Resources ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 88
Author(s):  
Zaman Sajid ◽  
Asma Javaid ◽  
Muhammad Kashif Khan ◽  
Hamad Sadiq ◽  
Usman Hamid
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Energy Policy ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Sustainable Energy ◽  
Energy Resource ◽  
Demand And Supply ◽  
Energy Profiles ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Guidelines And Recommendations

Forecasting energy demand and supply is the most crucial concern for energy policymakers. However, forecasting may introduce uncertainty in the energy model, and an energy policy based on an uncertain model could be misleading. Without certainty in energy data, investors cannot quantify risk and trade-offs, which are compulsory for investments in energy projects. In this work, the energy policies of Pakistan are taken as a case study, and flaws in its energy policymaking are identified. A novel probabilistic model integrated with curve fitting methods was proposed and was applied to 17 different energy demand and supply variables. Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) was performed to develop probabilistic energy profiles for each year from 2017 to 2050. Results show that the forecasted energy supply of Pakistan in the years 2025 and 2050 would be 70.69 MTOE and 131.65 MTOE, respectively. The probabilistic analysis showed that there is 14% and 6% uncertainty in achieving these targets. The research shows the expected energy consumption of 70.33 MTOE and 189.48 MTOE in 2025 and 2050, respectively, indicating uncertainties of 65% and 31%. Based on the results, eight energy policy guidelines and recommendations are provided for sustainable energy resource management. This study recommends developing a robust and sustainable energy policy for Pakistan with the help of transparent governance.

scholarly journals Proposed Model of Sustainable Resource Management for Smart Grid Utilization

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 70
Author(s):  
Haider Ali Tauqeer ◽  
Faisal Saeed ◽  
Muhammad Hassan Yousuf ◽  
Haroon Ahmed ◽  
Asad Idrees ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Resource Management ◽  
Smart Grid ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Sustainable Energy ◽  
Energy Resource ◽  
Operating Conditions ◽  
Energy Resources ◽  
Proposed Model

Automation and modernization of the grid with the availability of micro-grids including non-conventional sources of energy are the main constituent of smart grid technology. Most energy demand is fulfilled by fossil fuel-based power plants. Inadequacy of fuel resources, higher operating costs, and ever-increasing carbon emissions are the primary constraints of fossil fuels-operated power plants. Sustainable energy resource utilization in meeting energy demand is thought to be a preferred solution for reducing carbon emissions and is also a sustainable economic solution. This research effort discusses an accurate mathematical modeling and simulation implementation of a sustainable energy resource model powered by solar, grid, and proton exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC) stack and focuses on the energy management of the model. In the proposed model, despite energy resources being sustainable, consumer side sustainability is achieved by using electrical charging vehicles (ECVs) to be integrated with sustainable resources. The proposed energy resource management (ERM) strategy is evaluated by simulating different operating conditions with and without distributed energy resources exhibiting the effectiveness of the proposed model. PEMFC is incorporated in the model to control fluctuations that have been synchronized with other energy resources for the distribution feeder line. In this proposed model, PEMFC is synchronized with grid and solar energy sources for both DC and AC load with ERM of all sources, making the system effective and reliable for consumer-based load and ECVs utilization.

Statistics of Voltage Processes in Random Environment

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mircea Grigoriu
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Dynamical Systems ◽  
Random Environment ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Output Voltage ◽  
Forcing Functions

Abstract A method is developed to characterize the performance of voltage processes X(t) harvested from primary-absorber dynamical systems subjected to Gaussian forcing functions. The method is based on properties of the Slepian model of X(t) and Monte Carlo simulation. Statistics are calculated for excursions of X(t) above levels which can be related to energy demand. The duration and the area of these excursions are used as metrics for the voltage process. Their statistics depend on the topology and the parameters of primary-absorber dynamical systems, which can be optimized to maximize the output voltage.

Electron Scattering in Solids

1990 ◽  
Vol 48 (2) ◽  
pp. 4-5
Author(s):  
Ryuichi Shimizu ◽  
Ze-Jun Ding
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Angular Distribution ◽  
Elastic Scattering ◽  
Electron Scattering ◽  
Cross Sections ◽  
Expansion Method ◽  
Electron Excitation ◽  
Partial Wave Expansion ◽  
Backscattered Electrons

Monte Carlo simulation has been becoming most powerful tool to describe the electron scattering in solids, leading to more comprehensive understanding of the complicated mechanism of generation of various types of signals for microbeam analysis.The present paper proposes a practical model for the Monte Carlo simulation of scattering processes of a penetrating electron and the generation of the slow secondaries in solids. The model is based on the combined use of Gryzinski’s inner-shell electron excitation function and the dielectric function for taking into account the valence electron contribution in inelastic scattering processes, while the cross-sections derived by partial wave expansion method are used for describing elastic scattering processes. An improvement of the use of this elastic scattering cross-section can be seen in the success to describe the anisotropy of angular distribution of elastically backscattered electrons from Au in low energy region, shown in Fig.l. Fig.l(a) shows the elastic cross-sections of 600 eV electron for single Au-atom, clearly indicating that the angular distribution is no more smooth as expected from Rutherford scattering formula, but has the socalled lobes appearing at the large scattering angle.

Determination of Stoichiometry of GaAs Component in (Gaas)Ge Epitaxially Grown Thin Films by Electron Microprobe X-Ray Analysis

1990 ◽  
Vol 48 (2) ◽  
pp. 264-265
Author(s):  
D. R. Liu ◽  
S. S. Shinozaki ◽  
R. J. Baird
Keyword(s):  
Thin Film ◽  
Thin Films ◽  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Compound Semiconductors ◽  
Energy Dispersive Analysis ◽  
X Ray ◽  
Metastable Alloys ◽  
Lower Voltage

The epitaxially grown (GaAs)Ge thin film has been arousing much interest because it is one of metastable alloys of III-V compound semiconductors with germanium and a possible candidate in optoelectronic applications. It is important to be able to accurately determine the composition of the film, particularly whether or not the GaAs component is in stoichiometry, but x-ray energy dispersive analysis (EDS) cannot meet this need. The thickness of the film is usually about 0.5-1.5 μm. If Kα peaks are used for quantification, the accelerating voltage must be more than 10 kV in order for these peaks to be excited. Under this voltage, the generation depth of x-ray photons approaches 1 μm, as evidenced by a Monte Carlo simulation and actual x-ray intensity measurement as discussed below. If a lower voltage is used to reduce the generation depth, their L peaks have to be used. But these L peaks actually are merged as one big hump simply because the atomic numbers of these three elements are relatively small and close together, and the EDS energy resolution is limited.

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