scholarly journals Optimal Cleaning Cycle Scheduling under Uncertain Conditions: A Flexibility Analysis on Heat Exchanger Fouling

Processes ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 93
Author(s):  
Alessandro Di Pretoro ◽  
Francesco D’Iglio ◽  
Flavio Manenti
Keyword(s):  
Safety Issue ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Operating Conditions ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Optimal Time ◽  
Model Description ◽  
Chemical Cleaning ◽  
Uncertain Variables ◽  
Cycle Scheduling ◽  
Cleaning Cycle

Fouling is a substantial economic, energy, and safety issue for all the process industry applications, heat transfer units in particular. Although this phenomenon can be mitigated, it cannot be avoided and proper cleaning cycle scheduling is the best way to deal with it. After thorough literature research about the most reliable fouling model description, cleaning procedures have been optimized by minimizing the Time Average Losses (TAL) under nominal operating conditions according to the well-established procedure. For this purpose, different cleaning actions, namely chemical and mechanical, have been accounted for. However, this procedure is strictly related to nominal operating conditions therefore perturbations, when present, could considerably compromise the process profitability due to unexpected shutdown or extraordinary maintenance operations. After a preliminary sensitivity analysis, the uncertain variables and the corresponding disturbance likelihood were estimated. Hence, cleaning cycles were rescheduled on the basis of a stochastic flexibility index for different probability distributions to show how the uncertainty characterization affects the optimal time and economic losses. A decisional algorithm was finally conceived in order to assess the best number of chemical cleaning cycles included in a cleaning supercycle. In conclusion, this study highlights how optimal scheduling is affected by external perturbations and provides an important tool to the decision-maker in order to make a more conscious design choice based on a robust multi-criteria optimization.

scholarly journals Metrological performance of single-jet water meters over time

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Carmen Virginia Palau ◽  
Juan Manzano ◽  
Iban Balbastre Peralta ◽  
Benito Moreira de Azevedo ◽  
Guilherme Vieira do Bomfim
Keyword(s):  
Measurement Error ◽  
Water Consumption ◽  
Operating Conditions ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Flow Rates ◽  
Metrological Operation ◽  
Operation Period ◽  
Single Jet ◽  
Water Meters ◽  
Over Time

To maintain quality measurement of water consumption, it is necessary to know the metrology of single-jet water meters over time. Knowing the accuracy of these instruments over time allows establishing a metrological operation period for different flow rates. This will aid water companies to optimize management and reduce economic losses due to unaccounted water consumption. This study analyzed the influence of time on the measurement error of single-jet water meters to evaluate the deterioration of the equipment and, with that, launch the metrological operation period. According to standards 8316 and 4064 of the International Organization for Standardization (ISO), 808 meters of metrological Class B were evaluated in six water supplies, with age ranges of 3.7 to 16.4 years of use. The measurement error was estimated by comparing the volume measured in a calibrated tank with the volume registered by the meters at flow rates of 30, 120, 750 and 1,500 L h-1. The metrological operation period of the meters was obtained for each flow rate by the relation between error of measurement and time of use (simple linear regression). According to the results, the majority of the equipment presents increasing under-registration errors over time, more pronounced at low flow rates and with less favorable operating conditions. The metrological operation period for flow rates of 30, 120, 750 and 1,500 L h-1 is estimated at approximately 3, 8, 14 and 13 years. This operation period combined with consumption patterns of users will establish the best time to replace the meters.

scholarly journals Consideration of the Effects of Air Temperature on Structural Health Monitoring through Traffic Light-Based Decision-Making Tools

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philippe Guéguen ◽  
Alexandru Tiganescu
Keyword(s):  
Resonance Frequency ◽  
Association Rule ◽  
Rule Learning ◽  
Operating Conditions ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Atmospheric Conditions ◽  
Continuous Assessment ◽  
Traffic Light ◽  
Modal Shape ◽  
Real Time Analysis

The real-time analysis of a structure’s integrity associated with a process to estimate damage levels improves the safety of people and assets and reduces the economic losses associated with interrupted production or operation of the structure. The appearance of damage in a building changes its dynamic response (frequency, damping, and/or modal shape), and one of the most effective methods for the continuous assessment of integrity is based on the use of ambient vibrations. However, although resonance frequency can be used as an indicator of change, misinterpretation is possible since frequency is affected not only by the occurrence of damage but also by certain operating conditions and particularly certain atmospheric conditions. In this study, after analyzing the correlation of resonance frequency values with temperature for one building, we use the data mining method called “association rule learning” (ARL) to predict future frequencies according to temperature measurements. We then propose an anomaly interpretation strategy using the “traffic light” method.

scholarly journals Repair and maintenance costs of 4WD tractors and self propelled combine harvesters in Italy

2013 ◽  
Vol 44 (2s) ◽  
Author(s):  
Aldo Calcante ◽  
Luca Fontanini ◽  
Fabrizio Mazzetto
Keyword(s):  
Cost Estimation ◽  
Working Hours ◽  
The United States ◽  
Operating Conditions ◽  
List Price ◽  
Optimal Time ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Maintenance Costs ◽  
Combine Harvesters ◽  
Engine Power

Purchasing and maintaining tractors and operating machines are two of the most considerable costs of the agricultural sector, which includes farm equipment manufacturers, farm contractors and farms. In this context, repair and maintenance costs (R&M costs) generally constitute 10-15% of the total costs related to agricultural equipment and tend to increase with the age of the equipment; hence, an important consideration in farm management is the optimal time for equipment replacement. Classical, R&M cost estimation models, calculated as a function of accumulated working hours, are usually developed by ASAE/ASABE for the United States operating conditions. However, R&M costs are strongly influenced by farming practices, operative conditions, crop and soil type, climatic conditions, etc. which can be specific for individual countries. In this study, R&M cost model parameters were recalculated for the current Italian situation. For this purpose, data related to the R&M costs of 100 4WD tractors with engine power ranging from 59 to 198 kW, and of 20 SP combine harvesters (10 straw walkers combines and 10 axial flow combines) with engine power ranging from 159 to 368 kW working in Italy were collected. According to the model, which was obtained by interpolating the data through a two-parameter power function (proposed by ASAE/ASABE), the R&M cost incidence on the list price of Italian tractors at 12,000 working hours (estimated life of the machines) was 48.6%, as compared with 43.2% calculated through the most recent U.S. model while, for self propelled combine harvesters, the R&M cost incidence at 3,000 working hours was 23.1 % as compared with 40.2% calculated through the same U.S. model.

scholarly journals Inventory model for deteriorating items with negative exponential demand, probabilistic deterioration and fuzzy lead time under partial back logging

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nabendu Sen ◽  
Sumit Saha
Keyword(s):  
Inventory Management ◽  
Lead Time ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Optimal Strategies ◽  
Inventory Model ◽  
Deteriorating Items ◽  
Optimal Time ◽  
Inventory Cost ◽  
Total Inventory ◽  
Negative Exponential

The effect of lead time plays an important role in inventory management. It is also important to study the optimal strategies when the lead time is not precisely known to the decision makers. The aim of this paper is to examine the inventory model for deteriorating items with fuzzy lead time, negative exponential demand, and partially backlogged shortages. This model is unique in its nature due to probabilistic deterioration along with fuzzy lead time. The fuzzy lead time is assumed to be triangular, parabolic, trapezoidal numbers and the graded mean integration representation method is used for the defuzzification purpose. Moreover, three different types of probability distributions, namely uniform, triangular and Beta are used for rate of deterioration to find optimal time and associated total inventory cost. The developed model is validated numerically and values of optimal time and total inventory cost are given in tabular form, corresponding to different probability distribution and fuzzy lead-time. The sensitivity analysis is performed on variation of key parameters to observe its effect on the developed model. Graphical representations are also given in support of derived optimal inventory cost vs. time.

A Bayesian Approach to Reliability-Based Optimization With Incomplete Information

2006 ◽  
Author(s):  
Subroto Gunawan ◽  
Panos Y. Papalambros
Keyword(s):  
Incomplete Information ◽  
Piston Ring ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Cylinder Liner ◽  
Optimization Method ◽  
Uncertain Variables ◽  
Additional Information ◽  
Finite Samples ◽  
Estimate Reliability ◽  
Reliability Based Optimization

In engineering design, information regarding the uncertain variables or parameters is usually in the form of finite samples. Existing methods in optimal design under uncertainty cannot handle this form of incomplete information; they have to either discard some valuable information or postulate existence of additional information. In this article, we present a reliability-based optimization method that is applicable when information of the uncertain variables or parameters is in the form of both finite samples and probability distributions. The method adopts a Bayesian Binomial inference technique to estimate reliability, and uses this estimate to maximize the confidence that the design will meet or exceed a target reliability. The method produces a set of Pareto trade-off designs instead of a single design, reflecting the levels of confidence about a design’s reliability given certain incomplete information. As a demonstration, we apply the method to design an optimal piston-ring/cylinder-liner assembly under surface roughness uncertainty.

scholarly journals Some economic aspects of forming a machine system in flax industry

2020 ◽  
Vol 196 (5) ◽  
pp. 93-102
Author(s):  
Aslan Kulov ◽  
Irina Velikanova
Keyword(s):  
System Analysis ◽  
Government Support ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Optimal Time ◽  
State Support ◽  
Resource Saving ◽  
Machine System ◽  
Support Measures ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Machine Systems

Abstract. The main goal of our research is to consider the main economic factors that prevent the introduction of advanced technologies and to justify the need to change the state's approaches to supporting investment processes for the formation of advanced machine systems in flax industry, including on the basis of automation and digitalization of process management. Methods. In the work, based on the using of a wide range of analytical methods for studying economic phenomena in the flax growing industry, the using of computational-constructive and abstract-logical methods, using computational-constructive and abstract-logical methods, system analysis, recommendations were developed for the implementation of state support measures focused primarily on the complex system of machines in agriculture, independently of the financial and economic condition of economic entities. Results. The article shows that the complex mechanization of flax production is hindered both by the remaining insufficient level of financial and economic opportunities of commodity producers, and by the imperfection of state support. According to the analysis of data from the electronic information-analytical system testfirm.ru, it was revealed that only 34 % of the flax producers examined in 2018 were profitable, whose revenue exceeded 10 million rubles. It was revealed that the limited ability to update the main links and elements of the machine system leads to significant economic losses during the cultivation of flax, due to non-compliance with the execution of technological operations in the optimal time. Scientific novelty. The article presents the idea of the need, based on the recommendations of the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation and the Russian Center for Agricultural Consulting on the formation and use of specialized resource-saving technologies for cultivating flax for fiber and seeds, to expand the scope of government support measures for flax-growing farms not only to financially sustainable enterprises. The article substantiates the general need for investments for the use of advanced machine systems in the combined technology of cultivation, harvesting and primary processing of flax in the amount of more than 114 million rubles per 1000 hectares of sown area of flax.

scholarly journals Promising model range career excavators operating time assessment in real operating conditions

2020 ◽  
Vol 242 ◽  
pp. 228 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergey IVANOV ◽  
Polina IVANOVA ◽  
Sergey KUVSHINKIN
Keyword(s):  
Good Condition ◽  
Operating Time ◽  
Mining Industry ◽  
Negative Influence ◽  
Technical Condition ◽  
Operating Conditions ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Mining Machine ◽  
Mining Equipment ◽  
Detailed Assessment

The development prospects of the mining industry are closely related to the state and development of modern mining machinery and equipment that meet the technical and quality requirements of mining enterprises. Enterprises are focused on a quantitative assessment – the volume of mineral extraction, depending on the functioning efficiency of a promising series of mining machines, which include modern mining excavators. Downtime and unplanned shutdowns of mining excavators directly depend on the operating conditions of the mining machine, which has negative influence on the machine as a whole and its technical condition, which entails a decrease in the efficiency of using expensive mining equipment and economic losses of the mining enterprise. The rationale for external factors that affect the operating time and technical condition of mining excavators is given. For a more detailed assessment of the influence of external influences on the efficiency of operation of mining machines, the influencing factors are divided into two groups: ergatic, directly related to human participation, and factors of a natural-technogenic nature, where human participation is minimized. It was revealed that factors of a natural-technogenic nature have the greatest influence. An algorithm is proposed for a comprehensive assessment of the technical condition and forecasting of operating time both in nominal and in real operating conditions, taking into account factors of a natural and technogenic nature. It is proposed, based on the developed program for planning and evaluating the life of a mining excavator, to adjust the schedules for maintenance and repair (MOT and R) in order to minimize the number of unplanned downtime of a mining excavator and maintain it in good condition.

Robustness of Design Through Minimum Sensitivity

1992 ◽  
Vol 114 (2) ◽  
pp. 213-217 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. D. Belegundu ◽  
Shenghua Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Optimization Problem ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Uncertain Variable ◽  
Design Stage ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Uncertain Variables ◽  
Design Variables ◽  
Variable Reduction ◽  
Minimum Sensitivity ◽  
Selection Of

The problem of designing mechanical systems or components under uncertainty is considered. The basic idea is to ensure quality control at the design stage by minimizing sensitivity of the response to uncertain variables by proper selection of design variables. The formulation does not involve probability distributions. It is proved, however, that when the response is linear in the uncertain variable, reduction in sensitivity implies lesser probability of failure. The proof is generalized to the non-linear case under certain restrictions. In one example, the design of a three-bar truss is considered. The length of one of the bars is considered to be the uncertain variable while cross-sectional areas are the design variables. The sensitivity of the x-displacement is minimized. The constrained optimization problem is solved using a nonlinear programming code. A criterion which can help identify some of the problems where robustness in design is critical is discussed.

Predicting the Distribution of Combustion Timing Ensemble in an HCCI Engine

2009 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mahdi Shahbakhti ◽  
Ahmad Ghazimirsaied ◽  
Charles Robert Koch
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Model ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Exchange Process ◽  
Operating Conditions ◽  
Integral Model ◽  
Average Error ◽  
Statistical Control ◽  
Hcci Combustion ◽  
Crank Angle ◽  
Primary Reference

Control of Homogeneous Charge Compression Ignition (HCCI) engines to obtain the desirable operation requires understanding of how different charge variables influence the cyclic variations in HCCI combustion. Combustion timing for consecutive cycles at each operating point makes an ensemble of combustion timing which can exhibit different shapes of probability distributions depending on the random and physical patterns existing in the data. In this paper, a combined physical-statistical control-oriented model is developed to predict the distribution of HCCI combustion timing (CA50, crank angle of 50% fuel mass fraction burnt) for a range of operating conditions. The statistical model is based on the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution and the physical model embodies a modified knock integral model, a fuel burn rate model, a semi-empirical model for the gas exchange process and an empirical model to estimate the combustion timing dispersion. The resulting model is parameterized for the combustion of Primary Reference Fuel (PRF) blends using over 5000 simulations from a detailed thermo-kinetic model. Empirical correlations in the model are parameterized using the experimental data obtained from a single-cylinder engine. Once the model is parameterized it only needs five inputs: intake pressure, intake temperature, Exhaust Gas Recirculation (EGR) rate, equivalence ratio and engine speed. The main outputs of the model are CA50 and the Probability Density Function (PDF) metrics of CA50 distribution. Experimental CA50 is compared with predicted CA50 from the model and the results show a total average error of less than 1.5 degrees of crank angle for 213 steady-state operating points with four different PRF fuels at diversified operating conditions. Predicted PDF of the CA50 ensemble is compared with that of the experiments for PRF fuels at different running conditions. The results indicate a good agreement between simulation and the experiment.

scholarly journals Environmental safety management of urban building by regulation of formation process of exhaust gases of motor vehicles

2018 ◽  
Vol 196 ◽  
pp. 04065
Author(s):  
Liparit Badalyan ◽  
Vladimir Kurdjukov ◽  
Alla Ovcharenko
Keyword(s):  
Flow Rate ◽  
Combustion Engine ◽  
Operating Conditions ◽  
Pollutant Emissions ◽  
Motor Vehicles ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Reliable Determination ◽  
Exhaust Gases ◽  
Modern Development

Modern development of the construction industry involves accounting and assessment of operating conditions of structures. Excessive technological environmental impact can lead to economic losses and a decrease in the efficiency of investment projects in construction. Mobile sources emission record is an important component of the ecosystem state diagnosis in modern cities. For scientifically substantiated and reliable determination of the mass flow of the motor vehicles pollutants it is necessary to take into account the mixture formation and combustion of the working mixture in the internal combustion engine. The article describes the authors' approach to calculating the volumetric flow rate of exhaust gases based on the characteristics of the vehicle's transport operations available for operational control. Studies have shown that, when using a particular fuel, the determination of the volume flow rate of exhaust gases can be reduced to finding the power of the engine . In addition, the composition changes of the fuel (or fuel replacement) and the regulation of the effective power of the engine (by organization of traffic) allow to influence on the volume and composition of the emission of exhaust gases of vehicles and on the pollution of the urban environment in general. The results of the studies make it easier to calculate the mass of pollutant emissions by the transport stream into the outer air and can be used as preliminary data to assess the negative anthropogenic impact on the ecosystem.

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