scholarly journals Mosquitoes Know No Borders: Surveillance of Potential Introduction of Aedes Species in Southern Québec, Canada

Pathogens ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 998
Author(s):  
Anne-Marie Lowe ◽  
Karl Forest-Bérard ◽  
Richard Trudel ◽  
Ernest Lo ◽  
Philippe Gamache ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Mosquito Species ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Ochlerotatus Triseriatus ◽  
The North ◽  
Knowing That ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Ochlerotatus Japonicus ◽  
Capture Techniques

Current climatic conditions limit the distribution of Aedes (Stegomyia) albopictus (Skuse, Diptera: Culicidae) in the north, but predictive climate models suggest this species could establish itself in southern Canada by 2040. A vector of chikungunya, dengue, yellow fever, Zika and West Nile viruses, the Ae. Albopictus has been detected in Windsor, Ontario since 2016. Given the potential public health implications, and knowing that Aedes spp. can easily be introduced by ground transportation, this study aimed to determine if specimens could be detected, using an adequate methodology, in southern Québec. Mosquitoes were sampled in 2016 and 2017 along the main roads connecting Canada and the U.S., using Biogent traps (Sentinel-2, Gravide Aedes traps) and ovitraps. Overall, 24 mosquito spp. were captured, excluding Ae. Albopictus, but detecting one Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti (Skuse) specimen (laid eggs). The most frequent species among captured adults were Ochlerotatus triseriatus, Culex pipiens complex, and Ochlerotatus japonicus (31.0%, 26.0%, and 17.3%, respectively). The present study adds to the increasing number of studies reporting on the range expansions of these mosquito species, and suggests that ongoing monitoring, using multiple capture techniques targeting a wide range of species, may provide useful information to public health with respect to the growing risk of emerging mosquito-borne diseases in southern Canada.

scholarly journals Surface predictor of overturning circulation and heat content change in the subpolar North Atlantic

Ocean Science ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 809-817 ◽  
Author(s):  
Damien G. Desbruyères ◽  
Herlé Mercier ◽  
Guillaume Maze ◽  
Nathalie Daniault
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Overturning Circulation ◽  
The North ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Key Aspects

Abstract. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) impacts ocean and atmosphere temperatures on a wide range of temporal and spatial scales. Here we use observational datasets to validate model-based inferences on the usefulness of thermodynamics theory in reconstructing AMOC variability at low frequency, and further build on this reconstruction to provide prediction of the near-future (2019–2022) North Atlantic state. An easily observed surface quantity – the rate of warm to cold transformation of water masses at high latitudes – is found to lead the observed AMOC at 45∘ N by 5–6 years and to drive its 1993–2010 decline and its ongoing recovery, with suggestive prediction of extreme intensities for the early 2020s. We further demonstrate that AMOC variability drove a bi-decadal warming-to-cooling reversal in the subpolar North Atlantic before triggering a recent return to warming conditions that should prevail at least until 2021. Overall, this mechanistic approach of AMOC variability and its impact on ocean temperature brings new key aspects for understanding and predicting climatic conditions in the North Atlantic and beyond.

scholarly journals Mid-to-late Holocene Temperature Evolution and Atmospheric Dynamics over Europe in Regional Model Simulations

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emmanuele Russo ◽  
Ulrich Cubasch
Keyword(s):  
Late Holocene ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Modes Of Variability ◽  
The North ◽  
Climate Reconstructions ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
Almost All

Abstract. The improvement in resolution of climate models is always been mentioned as one of the most important factors when investigating past climatic conditions especially in order to evaluate and compare the results against proxy data. In this paper we present for the first time a set of high resolution simulations for different time slices of mid-to-late Holocene performed over Europe using a Regional Climate Model. Through a validation against a new pollen-based climate reconstructions dataset, covering almost all of Europe, we test the model performances for paleoclimatic applications and investigate the response of temperature to variations in the seasonal cycle of insolation, with the aim of clarifying earlier debated uncertainties, giving physically plausible interpretations of both the pollen data and the model results. The results reinforce previous findings showing that summertime temperatures were driven mainly by changes in insolation and that the model is too sensitive to such changes over Southern Europe, resulting in drier and warmer conditions. In winter, instead, the model does not reproduce correctly the same amplitude of changes, even if it captures the main pattern of the pollen dataset over most of the domain for the time periods under investigation. Through the analysis of variations in atmospheric circulation we suggest that, even though in some areas the discrepancies between the two datasets are most likely due to high pollen uncertanties, in general the model seems to underestimate the changes in the amplitude of the North Atlantic Oscillation, overestimating the contribution of secondary modes of variability

scholarly journals EUREC<sup>4</sup>A

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (8) ◽  
pp. 4067-4119
Author(s):  
Bjorn Stevens ◽  
Sandrine Bony ◽  
David Farrell ◽  
Felix Ament ◽  
Alan Blyth ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Scientific Practice ◽  
Lower Atmosphere ◽  
Upper Ocean ◽  
Cloud Droplets ◽  
The North ◽  
Brazil Current ◽  
North Brazil ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Research Aircraft

Abstract. The science guiding the EUREC4A campaign and its measurements is presented. EUREC4A comprised roughly 5 weeks of measurements in the downstream winter trades of the North Atlantic – eastward and southeastward of Barbados. Through its ability to characterize processes operating across a wide range of scales, EUREC4A marked a turning point in our ability to observationally study factors influencing clouds in the trades, how they will respond to warming, and their link to other components of the earth system, such as upper-ocean processes or the life cycle of particulate matter. This characterization was made possible by thousands (2500) of sondes distributed to measure circulations on meso- (200 km) and larger (500 km) scales, roughly 400 h of flight time by four heavily instrumented research aircraft; four global-class research vessels; an advanced ground-based cloud observatory; scores of autonomous observing platforms operating in the upper ocean (nearly 10 000 profiles), lower atmosphere (continuous profiling), and along the air–sea interface; a network of water stable isotopologue measurements; targeted tasking of satellite remote sensing; and modeling with a new generation of weather and climate models. In addition to providing an outline of the novel measurements and their composition into a unified and coordinated campaign, the six distinct scientific facets that EUREC4A explored – from North Brazil Current rings to turbulence-induced clustering of cloud droplets and its influence on warm-rain formation – are presented along with an overview of EUREC4A's outreach activities, environmental impact, and guidelines for scientific practice. Track data for all platforms are standardized and accessible at https://doi.org/10.25326/165 (Stevens, 2021), and a film documenting the campaign is provided as a video supplement.

Practising Public Health

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Ashton
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Life Experience ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Ageing Population ◽  
North West ◽  
External Threats ◽  
The North ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
New Thinking ◽  
The Subject

This book is based on over 40 years work in public health at a time of unprecedented change and challenge. The emphasis is on the practical aspects of working at different levels of action, very much ‘how to do it and how it was done’. As such it is a personal account. This period marked a new era in which the previous medical paradigm, dating from the mid-nineteenth century, was replaced by a broader, multidisciplinary approach, grounded in social science, the humanities, ecology, and public engagement with the politics of health once more coming into focus. The author uses case studies, storytelling, and real-life experience of establishing a new and revitalized public health system in the North West of England to bring the subject alive for a new generation of students and practitioners. Building on historic insights and timeless lessons from the Victorian and early-twentieth-century pioneers, he traces the evolution of the new thinking and its translation into action. The volume offers a rich menu of examples of responses to an array of new challenges ranging from new infections, such as HIV/AIDS and Ebola, to the lifestyle diseases of the new age, and the application of public health thinking to mental health and the problems of an ageing population. The external threats to health from the environment and as a result of man-made disasters and emergencies are extensively covered. The author brings a fresh approach to public health and the communication of public health issues. This work is accessible and stimulating, speaking to a wide range of audiences and sharing his passion for the subject.

Spatio-temporal dynamics on the distribution, extent, and net primary productivity of potential grassland in response to climate changes in China

2013 ◽  
Vol 35 (4) ◽  
pp. 409 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huilong Lin ◽  
Xuelu Wang ◽  
Yingjun Zhang ◽  
Tiangang Liang ◽  
Qisheng Feng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Primary Productivity ◽  
Carrying Capacity ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Net Primary Productivity ◽  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Recent Past ◽  
Future Scenario ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Future

Net primary productivity (NPP) of grassland is one of the key components in measuring the carrying capacity of livestock. Not only are grassland researchers concerned with the performance of NPP simulation models under current climate conditions, they also need to understand the behaviour of NPP–climate models under projected climatic changes. One of the goals of this study was to evaluate the three NPP–climate models: the Miami Model, the Schuur Model, and the Classification Indices-based Model. Results indicated that the Classification Indices-based Model was the most effective model at estimating large-scale grassland NPP. Both the Integrated Orderly Classification System of Grassland and the Classification Indices-based Model were then applied to analyse the succession of grassland biomes and to measure the change in total NPP (TNPP) of grassland biomes from the recent past (1950–2000) to a future scenario (2001–2050) in a geographic information system environment. Results of the simulations indicate that, under recent-past climatic conditions, the major biomes of China’s grassland are the tundra and alpine steppe, and steppe, and these would be converted into steppe and semi-desert grassland in the future scenario; the potential grassland TNPP in China was projected to be 0.72 PgC under recent-past climatic conditions, and would be 0.83 Pg C under the future climatic scenario. The ‘safe’ carrying capacity of livestock that best integrates a wide range of factors, such as grassland classes, climatic variability, and animal nutrition, is discussed as unresolved. Further research and development is needed to identify the regional trends for the ‘safe’ carrying capacity of livestock to maintain sustainable resource condition and reduce the risk of resource degradation. This important task remains a challenge for all grassland scientists and practitioners.

scholarly journals Evaluating the effects of climate change on precipitation and temperature for Iran using RCP scenarios

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shahab Doulabian ◽  
Saeed Golian ◽  
Amirhossein Shadmehri Toosi ◽  
Conor Murphy
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Skill Score ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
Wide Range

Abstract Climate change has caused many changes in hydrologic processes and climatic conditions globally, while extreme events are likely to occur more frequently at a global scale with continued warming. Given the importance of general circulation models (GCMs) as an essential tool for climate studies at global/regional scales, together with the wide range of GCMs available, selecting appropriate models is of great importance. In this study, six synoptic weather stations were selected as representative of different climatic zones over Iran. Utilizing monthly data for 20 years (1981–2000), the outputs of 25 GCMs for surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation were evaluated for the historical period. The root-mean-square error and skill score were chosen to evaluate the performance of GCMs in capturing observed seasonal climate. Finally, the outputs of selected GCMs for the three Representative Concentration Pathways emission scenarios (RCPs), namely RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, were downscaled using the change factor method for each station for the period 2046–2065. Results indicate that SAT in all months is likely to increase for each region, while for precipitation, large uncertainties emerge, despite the selection of climate models that best capture the observed seasonal cycle. These results highlight the importance of selecting a representative ensemble of GCMs for assessing future hydro-climatic changes for Iran.

scholarly journals Distribution of Botryosphaeria species causing grapevine dieback and decline in New Zealand vineyards

2008 ◽  
Vol 61 ◽  
pp. 392-392 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Baskarathevan ◽  
M.V. Jaspers ◽  
E.E. Jones ◽  
H.J. Ridgway
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Type Species ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Grapevine Variety ◽  
The North ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Comprehensive Survey ◽  
Grapevine Dieback ◽  
Isolated Species

Worldwide 11 species of Botryosphaeria have been isolated from grapevines in association with a wide range of decline and dieback symptoms Currently there is little knowledge on what species are present in New Zealand A comprehensive survey was carried out during June to December 2007 to collect Botryosphaeria species from New Zealand vineyards More than 450 isolates including B parva B lutea B australis B stevensii B obtusa and B iberica were isolated from symptomatic material No correlation was observed between the species of Botryosphaeria and grapevine variety or age The highest incidence of Botryosphaeria species (977 ) was from Blenheim and lowest (164 ) was from Otago The most commonly isolated species was B parva followed by B stevensii Fusicoccum type Botryosphaeria species such as B parva and B lutea were more prevalent in the North Island and Diplodia type species including B stevensii and B obtusa dominated in the South Island It is likely that the Botryosphaeria species distribution in New Zealand is influenced by climatic conditions This information has implications for development of control strategies

scholarly journals Surface predictor of overturning circulation and heat content change in the subpolar North Atlantic

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Damien G. Desbruyères ◽  
Herlé Mercier ◽  
Guillaume Maze ◽  
Nathalie Daniault
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Overturning Circulation ◽  
The North ◽  
Wide Range

Abstract. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) impacts ocean and atmosphere temperatures on a wide range of temporal and spatial scales. Here we use observational data sets to validate model-based inferences on the usefulness of thermodynamics theory in reconstructing AMOC variability at low-frequency, and further build on this reconstruction to provide prediction of the near-future (2019–2022) North Atlantic state. An easily-observed surface quantity – the rate of warm to cold transformation of water masses at high latitudes – is found to lead the observed AMOC at 45° N by 5–6 years and to drive its 1993–2010 decline and its ongoing recovery, with suggestive prediction of extreme intensities for the early 2020's. We further demonstrate that AMOC variability drove a bi-decadal warming-to-cooling reversal in the subpolar North Atlantic before triggering a recent return to warming conditions that should prevail at least until 2021. Overall, this mechanistic approach of AMOC variability and its impact on ocean temperature brings new keys for understanding and predicting climatic conditions in the North Atlantic and beyond.

scholarly journals EUREC<sup>4</sup>A

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bjorn Stevens ◽  
Sandrine Bony ◽  
David Farrell ◽  
Felix Ament ◽  
Alan Blyth ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Scientific Practice ◽  
Lower Atmosphere ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Upper Ocean ◽  
Cloud Droplets ◽  
The North ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Research Aircraft ◽  
New Generation

Abstract. The science guiding the EUREC4A campaign and its measurements are presented. EUREC4A comprised roughly five weeks of measurements in the downstream winter trades of the North Atlantic – eastward and south-eastward of Barbados. Through its ability to characterize processes operating across a wide range of scales, EUREC4A marked a turning point in our ability to observationally study factors influencing clouds in the trades, how they will respond to warming, and their link to other components of the earth system, such as upper-ocean processes or, or the life-cycle of particulate matter. This characterization was made possible by thousands (2500) of sondes distributed to measure circulations on meso (200 km) and larger (500 km) scales, roughly four hundred hours of flight time by four heavily instrumented research aircraft, four global-ocean class research vessels, an advanced ground-based cloud observatory, a flotilla of autonomous or tethered measurement devices operating in the upper ocean (nearly 10000 profiles), lower atmosphere (continuous profiling), and along the air-sea interface, a network of water stable isotopologue measurements, complemented by special programmes of satellite remote sensing and modeling with a new generation of weather/climate models. In addition to providing an outline of the novel measurements and their composition into a unified and coordinated campaign, the six distinct scientific facets that EUREC4A explored – from Brazil Ring Current Eddies to turbulence induced clustering of cloud droplets and its influence on warm-rain formation – are presented along with an overview EUREC4A's outreach activities, environmental impact, and guidelines for scientific practice.

scholarly journals High frequency variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

2011 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 219-246 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Balan Sarojini ◽  
J. M. Gregory ◽  
R. Tailleux ◽  
G. R. Bigg ◽  
A. T. Blaker ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Overturning Circulation ◽  
The North ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Meridional Overturning ◽  
Observational Estimate

Abstract. We compare the variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) as simulated by the coupled climate models of the RAPID project, which cover a wide range of resolution and complexity, and observed by the RAPID/MOCHA array at about 26° N. We analyse variability on a range of timescales. In models of all resolutions there is substantial variability on timescales of a few days; in most AOGCMs the amplitude of the variability is of somewhat larger magnitude than that observed by the RAPID array, while the amplitude of the simulated annual cycle is similar to observations. A dynamical decomposition shows that in the models, as in observations, the AMOC is predominantly geostrophic (driven by pressure and sea-level gradients), with both geostrophic and Ekman contributions to variability, the latter being exaggerated and the former underrepresented in models. Other ageostrophic terms, neglected in the observational estimate, are small but not negligible. In many RAPID models and in models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3), interannual variability of the maximum of the AMOC wherever it lies, which is a commonly used model index, is similar to interannual variability in the AMOC at 26° N. Annual volume and heat transport timeseries at the same latitude are well-correlated within 15–45° N, indicating the climatic importance of the AMOC. In the RAPID and CMIP3 models, we show that the AMOC is correlated over considerable distances in latitude, but not the whole extent of the North Atlantic; consequently interannual variability of the AMOC at 50° N is not well-correlated with the AMOC at 26° N.

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