scholarly journals “Realistic Choice of Annual Matrices Contracts the Range of λS Estimates” under Reproductive Uncertainty Too

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (23) ◽  
pp. 3007
Author(s):  
Dmitrii O. Logofet ◽  
Leonid L. Golubyatnikov ◽  
Elena S. Kazantseva ◽  
Nina G. Ulanova
Keyword(s):  
Markov Chain ◽  
Local Population ◽  
Quantitative Measure ◽  
Population Viability ◽  
Matrix Population Models ◽  
Random Choice ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Proper Modification ◽  
Stochastic Growth Rate ◽  
Realistic Choice

Our study is devoted to a subject popular in the field of matrix population models, namely, estimating the stochastic growth rate, λS, a quantitative measure of long-term population viability, for a discrete-stage-structured population monitored during many years. “Reproductive uncertainty” refers to a feature inherent in the data and life cycle graph (LCG) when the LCG has more than one reproductive stage, but when the progeny cannot be associated to a parent stage in a unique way. Reproductive uncertainty complicates the procedure of λS estimation following the defining of λS from the limit of a sequence consisting of population projection matrices (PPMs) chosen randomly from a given set of annual PPMs. To construct a Markov chain that governs the choice of PPMs for a local population of Eritrichium caucasicum, an short-lived perennial alpine plant species, we have found a local weather index that is correlated with the variations in the annual PPMs, and we considered its long time series as a realization of the Markov chain that was to be constructed. Reproductive uncertainty has required a proper modification of how to restore the transition matrix from a long realization of the chain, and the restored matrix has been governing random choice in several series of Monte Carlo simulations of long-enough sequences. The resulting ranges of λS estimates turn out to be more narrow than those obtained by the popular i.i.d. methods of random choice (independent and identically distributed matrices); hence, we receive a more accurate and reliable forecast of population viability.

scholarly journals Realistic Choice of Annual Matrices Contracts the Range of λS Estimates

Mathematics ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (12) ◽  
pp. 2252
Author(s):  
Dmitrii O. Logofet ◽  
Leonid L. Golubyatnikov ◽  
Nina G. Ulanova
Keyword(s):  
Markov Chain ◽  
Local Population ◽  
Quantitative Measure ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Variable Environment ◽  
Annual Population ◽  
Novel Method ◽  
Stochastic Growth Rate ◽  
Realistic Choice

In matrix population modeling the multi-year monitoring of a population structure results in a set of annual population projection matrices (PPMs), which gives rise to the stochastic growth rate λS, a quantitative measure of long-term population viability. This measure is usually found in the paradigm of population growth in a variable environment. The environment is represented by the set of PPMs, and λS ensues from a long sequence of PPMs chosen at random from the given set. because the known rules of random choice, such as the iid (independent and identically distributed) matrices, are generally artificial, the challenge is to find a more realistic rule. We achieve this with the a following a Markov chain that models, in a certain sense, the real variations in the environment. We develop a novel method to construct the ruling Markov chain from long-term weather data and to simulate, in a Monte Carlo mode, the long sequences of PPMs resulting in the estimates of λS. The stochastic nature of sequences causes the estimates to vary within some range, and we compare the range obtained by the “realistic choice” from 10 PPMs for a local population of a Red-Book species to those using the iid choice. As noted in the title of this paper, this realistic choice contracts the range of λS estimates, thus improving the estimation and confirming the Red-Book status of the species.

Observations of the action of sulfide waters and muds of the Chistopol region

1938 ◽  
Vol 34 (2) ◽  
pp. 156-160
Author(s):  
A. A. Khasanov
Keyword(s):  
Cast Iron ◽  
Rheumatic Diseases ◽  
Local Population ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Medical Supervision ◽  
Number Of Patients ◽  
Long Time

Fikovskaya water. For a long time the local population has been using Fikovskaya water with success for the treatment of various rheumatic diseases. The fame of Fik's sources spread to all neighboring regions. The number of patients who come here is quite significant. The local population treats the sick with water in tin baths, heating the water in enameled cast iron. In the warm season, this village turns into a primitive resort, where patients undergo treatment without medical supervision.

scholarly journals The Role of Education in Socio-cultural Development of the Yakut Region in the Second Half of XIX – Early XX Centuries

2020 ◽  
pp. 105-108
Author(s):  
Agrafena Innokentyevna Makarova
Keyword(s):  
Education System ◽  
Local Population ◽  
Cultural Development ◽  
The State ◽  
Educational Institutions ◽  
Cultural Life ◽  
Archival Documents ◽  
Long Time ◽  
State Educational

Based on archival documents and previously pub-lished materials, an attempt is made to show the role of the pre-revolutionary education system in the socio-cultural development of the Yakut region. Si-beria was a place of exile for a long time and the state was in no hurry to develop education here. But the liberal reforms of 1860–1870 created the prereq-uisites for the development of the education system. The paper shows the formation and development of educational institutions in the region, provides in-formation on the number of schools and the number of students. The role of political exiles in raising the general cultural level of the local population is also revealed. The author comes to the conclusion that in the Yakut region, thanks to the state educational policy on education of foreign suburbs and public initiative, primary and then secondary educational institutions begin to open, which have had a signifi-cant impact on the socio-cultural life of the region.

scholarly journals Conditioning an additive functional of a Markov chain to stay nonnegative. I. Survival for a long time

2005 ◽  
Vol 37 (4) ◽  
pp. 1015-1034 ◽  
Author(s):  
Saul D. Jacka ◽  
Zorana Lazic ◽  
Jon Warren
Keyword(s):  
Markov Chain ◽  
Weak Convergence ◽  
State Space ◽  
Continuous Time ◽  
Additive Functional ◽  
Finite State ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Negative Drift ◽  
Irreducible Markov Chain ◽  
Finite State Space

Let (Xt)t≥0 be a continuous-time irreducible Markov chain on a finite state space E, let v be a map v: E→ℝ\{0}, and let (φt)t≥0 be an additive functional defined by φt=∫0tv(Xs)d s. We consider the case in which the process (φt)t≥0 is oscillating and that in which (φt)t≥0 has a negative drift. In each of these cases, we condition the process (Xt,φt)t≥0 on the event that (φt)t≥0 is nonnegative until time T and prove weak convergence of the conditioned process as T→∞.

The Method of Forecasting the Population of Chinese Population Attractive Cities

2013 ◽  
Vol 295-298 ◽  
pp. 2654-2659 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shu Hao Jiao
Keyword(s):  
Chinese Population ◽  
Local Population ◽  
Local Economy ◽  
Floating Population ◽  
Leslie Matrix ◽  
The People ◽  
Population Forecasting ◽  
Long Time ◽  
The City ◽  
Male To Female

This paper presents a method of forecasting the population of Chinese population attractive cities. In this model the overall population is divided into two main parts, floating population(the people who will live in the city for a long time but do not have household register) and local population. The increment of floating population is positively correlated with the increment of local GDP approximately. Leslie matrix is used to imitate the process of the local population growth. Four main factors, death rate, birth rate, the ratio of male to female, and the growth of the local economy are considered to forecast the local population and floating population separately. The method in this paper overcome these shortcomings of the former method that they cannot explain the inner changes of the population, and ignore the factor of migration. So this method will offer a basis for the science of population forecasting.

Local Understandings of Roman Criminal Law and Procedure in Asia Minor

2020 ◽  
pp. 157-184
Author(s):  
Cédric Brélaz
Keyword(s):  
Criminal Law ◽  
Local Population ◽  
Criminal Procedure ◽  
Criminal Investigation ◽  
Asia Minor ◽  
Imperial Period ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Funerary Inscriptions ◽  
Roman Administration

This chapter deals with the knowledge provincials had, and the use they made, of Roman criminal procedure in the provinces of Asia Minor during the imperial period. This will be examined through two main categories of evidence: (1) petitions to emperors complaining about Roman soldiers or functionaries’ abuses against local population, (2) funerary inscriptions including provisions claiming that fines should be paid to the imperial treasury in case of desecration. This evidence supports the view that (unlike part of scholarship has been assuming for a long time) Roman criminal procedure still included accusatorial features under the Principate and that a formal accusation was needed for a proper criminal investigation to be launched. It is argued that provincials were deeply aware of what Roman criminal law was and could explicitly refer to some specific provisions in order to defend their own interests and even to challenge decisions made by the Roman administration.

The impact of fire and dogs on Koalas at Port Stephens, New South Wales, using population viability analysis

2007 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 189 ◽  
Author(s):  
Danial Lunney ◽  
Shaan Gresser ◽  
Lisa E. O'neill ◽  
Alison Matthews ◽  
Jonathan Rhodes
Keyword(s):  
New South ◽  
Local Population ◽  
New South Wales ◽  
Population Viability Analysis ◽  
Population Viability ◽  
Phascolarctos Cinereus ◽  
Viability Analysis ◽  
South Wales ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Port Stephens

The Port Stephens Koala Phascolarctos cinereus population has been regarded as one of the strongholds for Koalas in New South Wales. This study applied population viability analysis to investigate the impact of fire and predation by dogs on the viability of the local population. The rapid decline of the modelled Koala population under basic assumptions throws the assumed security of such large populations into question. In all the modelled management scenarios, reducing mortality had more influence than any other factor. Reducing the severity and frequency of large catastrophic fires improved the probability of survival for the population, though the modelled population size still declined sharply. Any management action to improve Koala survival must be accompanied by a reduction in mortality from dog attacks. Fires and dogs will have an ever greater impact on Koala populations as coastal forests become more fragmented and isolated by urban development, and their combined control will be needed to complement land-use planning measures to address habitat loss and fragmentation.

scholarly journals Penyelesaian Sengketa Pelaksanaan Perjanjian Lelang Sungai di Bidang Perikanan di Kecamatan Tanjung Lago Kabupaten Banyuasin

Wajah Hukum ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 106
Author(s):  
Indrajaya Indrajaya
Keyword(s):  
Natural Resources ◽  
Research Method ◽  
Local Population ◽  
Civil Code ◽  
Legal Action ◽  
Research Results ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Settlement Of Disputes ◽  
The Village

In the Civil Code regulates agreement, one type of agreement is an auction, however the object of this auction agreement is not an object or animal, but a river. In areas that have natural resources in the form of rivers, these agreements are often carried out, in practice adapted to local local wisdom. The river auction tradition in Tanjung Lago District, Banyuasin Regency, South Sumatra Province has been going on for a long time and has become a tradition for the local population. However, in practice there are often defaults committed by the parties. The purpose of this study is to determine the settlement of disputes in case of default by the parties. The research method is to look at direct facts that happen in real terms but still by using legal materials in the form of existing regulations and other sources. From the research results it is known that if one of the parties (the village administration and the winner of the auction) defaults, a deliberation between both parties but if it cannot be resolved then legal action can be taken. Meanwhile, if there is a default between the auction winner and the fisherman, the settlement will only be in the form of a warning and loss of trust without any sanctions.

scholarly journals Markov Chain Approach to a Process with Long-Time Memory

2003 ◽  
Vol 33 (1) ◽  
pp. 293-298 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guglielmo Lacorata ◽  
Rubén A. Pasmanter ◽  
Angelo Vulpiani
Keyword(s):  
Markov Chain ◽  
Markov Chain Approach ◽  
Long Time

scholarly journals Mordovian traditional women’s headdresses in the context of their ethnic and territorial identity

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 184-193
Author(s):  
Galina A. Kornishina
Keyword(s):  
Ethnic Groups ◽  
Local Population ◽  
Local Features ◽  
Tribal Community ◽  
Territorial Identity ◽  
Historical Method ◽  
The People ◽  
Community Belonging ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Almost All

Introduction. Being one of the elements of the traditional costume, headdresses retained ethnic characteristics for a long time. They were special markers of the ethnically determined worldview of their carriers and indicators of their ethnic and territorial identity. Women’s headdresses retained these identifying features the longest. The study was conducted in order to create a typology of women’s headdresses, which were traditional among the Mordovian population, in the context of the ethnic and territorial identity of their carriers. Materials and Methods. The article considers the materials contained in research giving an idea of the problem. It also examined and generalized the author’s field materials collected in ethnographic trips. To achieve the goal of the study, a comparative historical method was used. Results and Discussion. The study of various types of Mordovian women’s headdresses has revealed the diversity of their forms, material, decoration techniques and ways of wearing. The specific features of the elements of the traditional costume were closely interconnected with the ethnic and territorial identification of the people they belonged to. Both the main sub-ethnic groups of the Mordovians (Moksha and Erzia) and minor ethnic and territorial groups of the people had their own types of headdresses marked by their own local features. Conclusion. The female headdress of Mordovians was one of the important differentiating ethnic features, which visually showed ethnic, territorial, tribal community belonging. To some extent this function is preserved at the present time. Even in those regions where Mordovians live and where almost all information about traditional clothes was erased from the memory of the local population, people tend to restore its individual elements, including headdresses, which become a kind of national symbol, a sign of ownership of their people.

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